A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Moneyball concept is basically about hunting for undervalued players, right?  You could probably say that about a few of Brez's moves, but I think that's about it.  Suarez looks like a great signing, but that was a simple case of paying a guy what he was looking for. 

It's harder to find undervalued players now because every team has wall to wall data crunchers...human and non-human.

You know who is undervalued?

Sonny "not a #2" Gray 

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Abreu leads the majors in homers since the ASB.

He be hot.  bWAR is up to 4.6.

 

Very hot!

 

[UtahSox]

38 minutes ago, dannycater said:

The guys that are helping team win are the guys that are playing right now, not the Meads, the Storys, the Anthonys, even Crochet...the catcher they acquired is perfect need and once he is healthy catching will be two-way instead of defense only. I don't care if Monasterio and Sogard (plus Seigler) aren't the end all for people, but I can tell that you when you go 30-5, these are mojo guys, and they are playing stellar defense despite the analytics. I got an eye test at Dodger Stadium, pretty f***ing good.

Yeah we 100% agree, but are leaning/ planning for IF or when guys revert back to their personal mean. If Mona keeps at a 850+ OPS he isn’t going anywhere. Nor should he. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You know who is undervalued?

Sonny "not a #2" Gray 

Agreed.  I was bummed at the prospect of trading him at the deadline.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox are serious about winning, once Mona's bat goes away, they should call up Arias. Have him hit 9th. Tell him to just put the ball in play and provide good defense. He's better than Cheng and is the long term replacement at SS. Why wait if you truly believe all players at AAA are ready to be called up? He's not seen as a franchise savior. He doesn't have that burden. It'd be showing up at the right time TBH. 

There are two reasons - let's not rush him and drop him into the pressure of a play off race (though he's making himself hard to ignore) but most importantly, he isn't on the 40 man. 

When the lockout comes those not on the 40 man can continue to train and play baseball. We want Arias playing baseball next year, not sitting at home. 

[Nick]

He’s gone through a lot, between the knee, then he had a little hamstring flareup, obviously the oblique and he’s come back from that and now there’s a wrist that’s popped up,” he said. “We’ll keep an eye and once he’s able to, keep progressing.”

Soooooooooo glad Casas had no interest in giving the Sox "hometown" discount. It was said that he wanted to bet on himself. Thank God. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Story should not play SS. He can be considered for 2B or DH only after he has shown he can hit more like the last 81 games of 2025 than before that.

How does he prove he can? 

1. He needs to hit well in rehba.

2. Assuming he is promoted to the 26, he can start by platooning at DH and 2B. He'll get a few ABs vs RHPs. Assess his numbers and hard hit/ swing and miss rates.

3. He should not be handed any FT role, unless someone gets hurt or is doing badly.

He's not going to be ready until the expanded rosters in September, so we don't have to worry about earning just the 26th spot. 

He's a veteran and was a valuable player last year. We'll see if this year was the injury or just the fall off, but I can't help feel people are s***ing on him too much right now. Let's see how the rehab goes. 

I like Mona but he isn't going to keep this hitting up. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since July 1, they are 5th in runs scored. Seems like they needed to score runs to win. If they kept scoring runs at the previous pace, they'd still be below .500 regardless of pythagorus. 

Yes, the increase in runs scored changed the run differential to the plus side.

Had our pitching went to 29th ranked, we wouldnt be 30-5, either.

Run differential is a better indicator than just runs scored. The data supports this.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

There are two reasons - let's not rush him and drop him into the pressure of a play off race (though he's making himself hard to ignore) but most importantly, he isn't on the 40 man. 

When the lockout comes those not on the 40 man can continue to train and play baseball. We want Arias playing baseball next year, not sitting at home. 

I know there are reasons not to play him. There are also important reasons to play him.

Also, these guys won't be sitting at home in the offseason. They are all going to be working out together. He just won't see any in game action, the same as everyone else in MLB. It's not like it was 75 years ago when dudes needed offseason jobs and used Spring Training to get back into shape. These guys are ready to go by the time the show up in FL/AZ. 

[Hitch]

48 minutes ago, dannycater said:

The guys that are helping team win are the guys that are playing right now, not the Meads, the Storys, the Anthonys, even Crochet...the catcher they acquired is perfect need and once he is healthy catching will be two-way instead of defense only. I don't care if Monasterio and Sogard (plus Seigler) aren't the end all for people, but I can tell that you when you go 30-5, these are mojo guys, and they are playing stellar defense despite the analytics. I got an eye test at Dodger Stadium, pretty f***ing good.

This is fair, also. Whoever gets moved down once we're all healthy is going to have a rightful beef with the decision, but also, some of them are running a hot streak that is far above their level. If that tails off like you'd imagine it has to, by the end of the month, it'll be less painful and make all the sense in the world to bring your big guys back in. Especially with expanded rosters due. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You know who is undervalued?

Sonny "not a #2" Gray 

I remember trying to say Gray was closer to a number #1 than a #3, but I don't think I convinced any of the anti-WAR posters to change their mind.

I will say, at the time, I hoped we'd gotten someone better, but then we signed Suarez after the Bregman idea went poof.

[Hitch]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You know who is undervalued?

Sonny "not a #2" Gray 

TBF, he hasn't lived up to the No2 we hoped.

He's been a No1. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I know there are reasons not to play him. There are also important reasons to play him.

Also, these guys won't be sitting at home in the offseason. They are all going to be working out together. He just won't see any in game action, the same as everyone else in MLB. It's not like it was 75 years ago when dudes needed offseason jobs and used Spring Training to get back into shape. These guys are ready to go by the time the show up in FL/AZ. 

Nothing beats competing. Training all day in complexes and some pick up games gets you only so far. If we're flying without him, I'd rather he stay down there on the chance we lose half a season as I expect. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

He's not going to be ready until the expanded rosters in September, so we don't have to worry about earning just the 26th spot. 

He's a veteran and was a valuable player last year. We'll see if this year was the injury or just the fall off, but I can't help feel people are s***ing on him too much right now. Let's see how the rehab goes. 

I like Mona but he isn't going to keep this hitting up. 

I'm not worried about the 26th slot. Or 27th, after rosters expand by 1 everyday player in Sept. I'd prefer Story over Sogard or Jones.

I'm worried about making Story the FT SS.

I'd have issues with FT 2Bman, too, but at least that would be better.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, the increase in runs scored changed the run differential to the plus side.

Had our pitching went to 29th ranked, we wouldnt be 30-5, either.

Run differential is a better indicator than just runs scored. The data supports this.

They already had a positive pythag on 6/26 when they were still 12 games under. 

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I remember trying to say Gray was closer to a number #1 than a #3, but I don't think I convinced any of the anti-WAR posters to change their mind.

I will say, at the time, I hoped we'd gotten someone better, but then we signed Suarez after the Bregman idea went poof.

You hoped they signed someone better than a potential #1? Huh? 

[Duran Is The Man]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You know who is undervalued?

Sonny "not a #2" Gray 

and people thought i was crazy for wanting to extend him whenever everyone else was wanting to trade him.

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not worried about the 26th slot. Or 27th, after rosters expand by 1 everyday player in Sept. I'd prefer Story over Sogard or Jones.

I'm worried about making Story the FT SS.

I'd have issues with FT 2Bman, too, but at least that would be better.

I get that. He's hardly a shoe in for me either. But I think he's got more to offer than people are giving him credit for, if he clicks.

No guarantee of course, but I'm looking forward to seeing what he has in his rehab. His power is legit and if he's on he'd be weapon in that line up.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

This is fair, also. Whoever gets moved down once we're all healthy is going to have a rightful beef with the decision, but also, some of them are running a hot streak that is far above their level. If that tails off like you'd imagine it has to, by the end of the month, it'll be less painful and make all the sense in the world to bring your big guys back in. Especially with expanded rosters due. 

This makes sense, but there is a chance the current play is NOT "far above their level," and some of these guys might very well be coming into their own true selves. Mona could drop off a little and still be our best option at SS for the rest of 2026 or until we take the Arias plunge.

Monasterio has hit well for two straight seasons. While a 363 PA sample size does not prove anything in MLB, it's not a small sample size. Monasterio has a 115 OP+ in this sample.

We all hope Story can hit like 2025, again, right? hat was a 105 OPS+. Now, if Story can hit like he did the end of 2025 (82 games and 346 PAs) that's another story (pun intended.) He hit .838 to end the season with 15 HRs, which is like 30 over 162 games.

There is a decent chance this is NOT fluke hitting by Monasterio. Okay, you say these numbers are fueled by a .991 OPS over his last 7 games, and that is unsustainable. Sure, I agree, but Story's nice stretch was also fueled by a couple hot streaks, too. (BTW, Mona is at 1.161 in the last 17 gms) He was at .629 after his first 56 games- a much larger sample size.

Roll with the hot bat. Call up Arias, if he cools off too much. Play the hottest hand at 2B or give Story a shot, when he's ready. (Story could also platoon with Yoshida at DH.)

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They already had a positive pythag on 6/26 when they were still 12 games under. 

Exactly, and that was an indicator that we were better than a team 12 under .500.

It was more of an indicator of who the team was and would be than the runs scored ranking indicated.

We were still 29th in runs scored on 6/26. The runs scored ranking indicated we sucked and likely would keep sucking.

The run differential indicated a better team. Not 30-5, but better.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I get that. He's hardly a shoe in for me either. But I think he's got more to offer than people are giving him credit for, if he clicks.

No guarantee of course, but I'm looking forward to seeing what he has in his rehab. His power is legit and if he's on he'd be weapon in that line up.

I have not written Story off.

I'm not convinced on Sogard and Seigler. I'm still skeptical on Monasterio. I like IKF, but he needs to rehab, too.

It's Story's defense that worries me most, and apparently Monasterio is not a plus at SS, either, but he seems better than Story on D, and so far he's hitting better than I expect Story to hit after a rehab stint. That could change.

Now, talk to be about 2B with no Mead of DH vs LHPs, and Story is in the running, but again, he needs to show something to win the job. He may only need to hit .700 or .725 to be better than who we got on the day he's ready for the promo/

[mvp 78]

 

[JoeBrady]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Moneyball concept is basically about hunting for undervalued players, right?  You could probably say that about a few of Brez's moves, but I think that's about it.  Suarez looks like a great signing, but that was a simple case of paying a guy what he was looking for. 

It's harder to find undervalued players now because every team has wall to wall data crunchers...human and non-human.

The concept of 'under-valued' fluctuates.  Some under-valued concepts get hot, and when everyone jumps on the bandwagon, they become over-valued.  The accountants crunching the numbers can easily miss that the rest of the league is bidding up the same values.  I'm not sure if any single concept works consistently.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Thinks about Smokey Joe. He pitched as well as these Sox have played in the last 35 games!

ALL YEAR LONG!

[JoeBrady]

37 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

If Mona keeps at a 850+ OPS he isn’t going anywhere. Nor should he. 

That's the beauty of baseball.  No one knows if a player is simply on a good run, or if he is simply becoming the player he was always destined to be.

[Hitch]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This makes sense, but there is a chance the current play is NOT "far above their level," and some of these guys might very well be coming into their own true selves. Mona could drop off a little and still be our best option at SS for the rest of 2026 or until we take the Arias plunge.

Monasterio has hit well for two straight seasons. While a 363 PA sample size does not prove anything in MLB, it's not a small sample size. Monasterio has a 115 OP+ in this sample.

We all hope Story can hit like 2025, again, right? hat was a 105 OPS+. Now, if Story can hit like he did the end of 2025 (82 games and 346 PAs) that's another story (pun intended.) He hit .838 to end the season with 15 HRs, which is like 30 over 162 games.

There is a decent chance this is NOT fluke hitting by Monasterio. Okay, you say these numbers are fueled by a .991 OPS over his last 7 games, and that is unsustainable. Sure, I agree, but Story's nice stretch was also fueled by a couple hot streaks, too. (BTW, Mona is at 1.161 in the last 17 gms) He was at .629 after his first 56 games- a much larger sample size.

Roll with the hot bat. Call up Arias, if he cools off too much. Play the hottest hand at 2B or give Story a shot, when he's ready. (Story could also platoon with Yoshida at DH.)

There's a chance it is not fluke hitting by Mona (and others). His first two seasons his OP+ was .75. We'll find out where it is, but I'm pretty confident it's not what we're seeing now on what is a miraculous run by all involved. 

[Hitch]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have not written Story off.

I'm not convinced on Sogard and Seigler. I'm still skeptical on Monasterio. I like IKF, but he needs to rehab, too.

It's Story's defense that worries me most, and apparently Monasterio is not a plus at SS, either, but he seems better than Story on D, and so far he's hitting better than I expect Story to hit after a rehab stint. That could change.

Now, talk to be about 2B with no Mead of DH vs LHPs, and Story is in the running, but again, he needs to show something to win the job. He may only need to hit .700 or .725 to be better than who we got on the day he's ready for the promo/

I feel like IFK is done. I'd be surprised if there is room for him if a) this run keeps going, and b) we get all our guys back to fitness. So I'm not worried about that so much. 

The only SS we have who's been good at D is Cheng and he's down to stay now I imagine. 

Mona is not better than Story on D. If Mona hits and Story doesn't, there's no contest, it stays Mona. If Story gets in a groove there's also no contest.

Time will tell us which happens. Neither is sure. 

I'm not sure they're going to move Story do 2nd but it could happen. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

There's a chance it is not fluke hitting by Mona (and others). His first two seasons his OP+ was .75. We'll find out where it is, but I'm pretty confident it's not what we're seeing now on what is a miraculous run by all involved. 

Agreed, but what chance does Story have to even repeat 2025's 105 OPS+?

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The accountants crunching the numbers can easily miss that the rest of the league is bidding up the same values.

Us cool accountants never miss a thing. 

[Hitch]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but what chance does Story have to even repeat 2025's 105 OPS+?

Yeah, I'm not saying it's nailed on. Just that there is any chance and if finds it, I'd like his power threat and defence over Mona. 

I'm not enthusiastically pushing for it by any means.