A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think we all know some Prospects are more tradable than others.  Teams obviously have a prefernce to keep certain guys because they believe in their talent or they need the depth there. 

I'd say that Perales is held in a much higher regard than Travieso, now I don't think that means Perales won't be traded at all.  But I certainly do NOT think the Sox are actively shopping him and I see no reason to believe they are. 

I think when they shop, they are more targeting what they are getting vs giving up.  For example, if they are shopping righty power bat, and the team wants pitching, I think they let the other team take the lead with who they want.  Obviously , we put boundaries in place and try to get them off players we want to keep and maybe thats Perales.  Maybe thats saying , hey how about if we remove Perales and add Dobbins.  But I think they are pretty opened minded and let the talks flow.  

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I could see Bello going. He's hit his ceiling here. We've seen flashes, but he just doesn't put it together. He's worth his contract, but Breslow wants someone he can trust in the postseason. 

He was a fine #3 in 2025. Some stats show him as top 60, so maybe a #2, but he did drop off in SEP. 

I'm not sure we can read into that too much and claim he can't be trusted in the PS. He only had one shot.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You seem to be really against Perales in the rotation.  If a guy has TOTR potential why wouldn’t you at least start him there this year? 
 

there doesn’t really seem to be anyone anywhere that has a problem with him continuing to start, for the moment at least

MVP seems to think , going by his words, that how Perales does in a AAA rotation will not be super correlated to how he would eventually do in an MLB rotation, so he thinks that if you use Perales in AAA you arent gaining information on him.

Apologies if Ive misinterpreted.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Buhler was not quality that some liked so much on here?🤫

No, he wasn't. Many of us did not like that signing, but to me he seemed like a better shot in the dark than the Kluber and Richards types.

We need to do better.

I see Gray as a better shot than Buehler, but is no given.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think they have a handshake agreement with Criswell that he'll remain in the picture, maybe not add back to 40 man right away, but we know Houck at least is heading to 60 day IL

If Criswell is claimed, as he likely will be, he won't have a choice.

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

MVP seems to think , going by his words, that how Perales does in a AAA rotation will not be super correlated to how he would eventually do in an MLB rotation, so he thinks that if you use Perales in AAA you arent gaining information on him.

Apologies if Ive misinterpreted.

I think what MVP's take is that he's a bullpen arm so why delay the invevitable and get him up in the pen now where he can help the big leauge team.  Especially seeing how he has no options left. 

Normally I'd agree, but given his level of talent I think you have to give him more time as a starter and It seems very likley to me based on what we hear that this is how it's going to transpire for now. 

I do think we see him in a bullpen role in Boston by the end of the year though. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

MVP seems to think , going by his words, that how Perales does in a AAA rotation will not be super correlated to how he would eventually do in an MLB rotation, so he thinks that if you use Perales in AAA you arent gaining information on him.

Apologies if Ive misinterpreted.

Perales has 163 CAREER innings. He has 9 innings above A+ ball. He has no track record. He is running out of time. If they put him in the rotation, what are the realistic expectations for him? He's going to build up to 3/4 innings by June? Any setbacks and the year is thrown into complete chaos. He needs to be fast tracked to BOS because he probably needs to be on the BOS active roster next season unless given an extra option year. The only way to do that is as a reliever. AAA vs MLB aren't comparable. You can see where his stuff is at, but the competition is not the same. You won't see how his stuff will play at the next level (compare Tolle's AAA and MLB numbers in '25). 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think what MVP's take is that he's a bullpen arm so why delay the invevitable and get him up in the pen now where he can help the big leauge team.  Especially seeing how he has no options left. 

Normally I'd agree, but given his level of talent I think you have to give him more time as a starter and It seems very likley to me based on what we hear that this is how it's going to transpire for now. 

I do think we see him in a bullpen role in Boston by the end of the year though. 

If they are certain that he is going to get a 4th option year, let him start one more season. They know how to calculate that, not me. 

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We had "great depth" last year, so much so, we felt the need to trade Priester (and Newcomb.)

Then, we ended up trading for May and relying on rookies to start big games for us down the stretch.

That being said, I'd prefer a move toward more quality not quantity.

JH prefers players on 1 yr deals.

[Hugh2]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Perales has 163 CAREER innings. He has 9 innings above A+ ball. He has no track record. He is running out of time. If they put him in the rotation, what are the realistic expectations for him? He's going to build up to 3/4 innings by June? Any setbacks and the year is thrown into complete chaos. He needs to be fast tracked to BOS because he probably needs to be on the BOS active roster next season unless given an extra option year. The only way to do that is as a reliever. AAA vs MLB aren't comparable. You can see where his stuff is at, but the competition is not the same. You won't see how his stuff will play at the next level (compare Tolle's AAA and MLB numbers in '25). 

He's going to get an extra option year though, isn't he?

Also, I think if you truly believe a guy has talent and a chance to be a TOTRS you don't have such a short leash on putting him in the pen. 

I think the Sox are starting him at AAA no matter how this conversation goes.  He probably breaks into his MLB career as a reliever but depending one how they view his development this year he probably goes right back into the rotation in 2027 just like you will see with Tolle this year. (who very well may end up back in the pen at some point)

[Hugh2]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they are certain that he is going to get a 4th option year, let him start one more season. They know how to calculate that, not me. 

I think they are

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

JH prefers players on 1 yr deals.

Hard to get the top quality on one year deals, and that has been a major issue for years.

Story and Yoshida are the two FA contracts over 2 years in a long time.

We have done a few 2 year deals, like Gio, Jansen, Martin & Sandoval.

We need to break that mold, this winter and 2 or more times.

[Hitch]

Criswell claimed by The Mets,

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think they have a handshake agreement with Criswell that he'll remain in the picture, maybe not add back to 40 man right away, but we know Houck at least is heading to 60 day IL

 

[mvp 78]

The Mets 86'd that handshake agreement. 😢

[moonslav59]

I thought there would be a trade.

[Old Red]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Name one person who said he's a "lock."

I'm probably his biggest supporter and I said I think, if healthy, he has the inside track on the 4 slot, assuming he looks okay in ST'ing.

If all these guys look about the same in ST'ing and are healthy, I would guess only Crochet, Gray and Bello are "locks." Here is my pecking order:

4. Sandoval

5. Crawford or Oviedo

7. Harrison

8. Dobbins or Early/Tolle

 

Ok we won’t use the word lock, and we’ll go with inside track, which I don’t believe he has either. Sandoval has a career 19-45 record, and I know record isn’t everything, but, he’s NEVER had a winning season. A Career ERA over 4, and three of those seasons over 5. I don’t care what other stat you want to throw out there to me he’s still an $18M waste of money.. I do agree on Cro Man, Gray, and Bello, but outside of those 3 there are endless possibilities.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Ok we won’t use the word lock, and we’ll go with inside track, which I don’t believe he has either. Sandoval has a career 19-45 record, and I know record isn’t everything, but, he’s NEVER had a winning season. A Career ERA over 4, and three of those seasons over 5. I don’t care what other stat you want to throw out there to me he’s still an $18M waste of money.. I do agree on Cro Man, Gray, and Bello, but outside of those 3 there are endless possibilities.

In no way does Sandoval have a guaranteed slot in the 2026 rotation. The contract will likely be a waste, but we did feel the same way about Gio, this time last year, and he was paid twice what Sandoval is making. He has time to earn part or all of the $18M he signed for.

BTW, his 4.01 ERA is a 108 ERA+, so saying he's "over a 4 ERA like it's something bad, is a bit deceptive, IMO.

I'm not big on counting a young pitcher's first 2-3 years against him, but many like the career stat numbers more than I do. The injury throws everything up in the air for him, and my comment "inside track" was coupled with the statement "assuming everyone is healthy," which is a big unknown. There is also a good chance some of the pitchers I have below Sandoval look great and jump over him, even if he does okay in ST'ing.

I look at his record from 2021 to 2024 and see better numbers than Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison and maybe even Bello. That's not to say he is better, now, but IMO the potential is there, because he has done it over a 460 IP sample size.

3.80 ERA (113 ERA+)

3.75 FIP despite a 4 BB/9 rate.

His 91 ERA- ranks 32nd among all MLB pitchers with 450+ IP from '21 to '24. His FIP ranks 30th and his ERA 36th. That's pretty good.

I'm not sure why you seem to have so little faith in him, when he's had better stretches than most others in the running for the 4 and 5 slots. I have Bello ahead of him, and his ERA (4.09) is worse and was 4.19 in 2025. He has a nice ERA+ of 123, but career it's 104. It's 106 over his last 480 IP. (FIP 4.30) Gray is 36 and had a 4.28 ERA in 2025. His ERA+ over his last 350 IP is 101. Apparently over 4.00 inot bad for some, so why no liking for PS?

ERA+

102 Crawford over last 313 IP

100 Dobbin in 61 career IP and coming off knee surgery

91 Harrison over last 195 IP

This is who PS is most in competition with- maybe Tolle or Early break out of ST'ing in the rotation, and I'd love to see them win a slot, but I see Sandoval as the guy who has shown more skills than the others, as of now.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Ok we won’t use the word lock, and we’ll go with inside track, which I don’t believe he has either. Sandoval has a career 19-45 record, and I know record isn’t everything, but, he’s NEVER had a winning season. A Career ERA over 4, and three of those seasons over 5. I don’t care what other stat you want to throw out there to me he’s still an $18M waste of money.. I do agree on Cro Man, Gray, and Bello, but outside of those 3 there are endless possibilities.

Early 1-2, 2.33 ERA (as a starter)

Sandoval 18-49, 4.01 ERA (as a starter)

Dobbins 4-1 4.25 ERA (as a starter)

Oviedo 13-26, 4.39 ERA (as a starter)

Crawford 16-29 4.69 ERA (as a starter)

Tolle 0-1, 7.84 ERA (as a starter)

To me, Early, Sandoval and Oviedo are competing for the last two spots going by what you posted. Considering the cash outlay and lack of options, Sandoval is definitely getting the first crack at the 5th spot in the rotation at the very least. Maybe he flames out? Maybe he's not ready and is phantom IL'd to start the year like we've seen with Bello, Giolito and others recently?

I do wonder about the idea of moving Bello in a trade for a #2 rather than Tolle or Early. 

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Early 1-2, 2.33 ERA (as a starter)

Sandoval 18-49, 4.01 ERA (as a starter)

Dobbins 4-1 4.25 ERA (as a starter)

Oviedo 13-26, 4.39 ERA (as a starter)

Crawford 16-29 4.69 ERA (as a starter)

Tolle 0-1, 7.84 ERA (as a starter)

To me, Early, Sandoval and Oviedo are competing for the last two spots going by what you posted. Considering the cash outlay and lack of options, Sandoval is definitely getting the first crack at the 5th spot in the rotation at the very least. Maybe he flames out? Maybe he's not ready and is phantom IL'd to start the year like we've seen with Bello, Giolito and others recently?

I do wonder about the idea of moving Bello in a trade for a #2 rather than Tolle or Early. 

That’s what I said there there was endless possibilities after Cro Man, BBB, and Gray. I don’t think they would have treaded for the BIG o if they didn’t intend to start him, so right now I only see 1 spot open in the starting rotation providing all make it through ST healthy, which after the last few years will be a big thing in itself.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s what I said there there was endless possibilities after Cro Man, BBB, and Gray. I don’t think they would have treaded for the BIG o if they didn’t intend to start him, so right now I only see 1 spot open in the starting rotation providing all make it through ST healthy, which after the last few years will be a big thing in itself.

Couldn't you also say they spent big money on Sandoval, so they "intended to start him" too?

The Big O might be pen bound.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Couldn't you also say they spent big money on Sandoval, so they "intended to start him" too?

The Big O might be pen bound.

I think Brez had a big Brain Fart when he signed Sandoval just like he did when he signed Liam Hendricks with the idea of him being the closer last year. Luckily Chapman who wasn’t intended to have such a big roll bailed him, and the Red Sox out Big time.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hard to get the top quality on one year deals, and that has been a major issue for years.

Story and Yoshida are the two FA contracts over 2 years in a long time.

We have done a few 2 year deals, like Gio, Jansen, Martin & Sandoval.

We need to break that mold, this winter and 2 or more times.

JH is satisfied as long as the team is competitive and he is making money.

[Larry Cook]

Going into the 2025 season. Giolita, Hendricks and Sandoval coming off injury. 
 

going into the 2026 season. Sandoval, Oviedo, dobbins and cutter coming off injury. 
 

bres-slow is consistent 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Going into the 2025 season. Giolita, Hendricks and Sandoval coming off injury. 
 

going into the 2026 season. Sandoval, Oviedo, dobbins and cutter coming off injury. 
 

bres-slow is consistent 

Gio looked pretty durable when we signed him. It seems we are jinxed whether we sign healthy or injured pitchers.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

JH is satisfied as long as the team is competitive and he is making money.

Then he wasn't too happy in 4 or 5 of the last 7 seasons.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com on Oviedo...

https://www.mlb.com/news/johan-oviedo-outlook-with-red-sox

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB.com on Oviedo...

https://www.mlb.com/news/johan-oviedo-outlook-with-red-sox

Nice analysis.  I still see him as a LR/#6, but hopefully Breslow and staff are looking at some angles that don't necessarily show up in the numbers.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Nice analysis.  I still see him as a LR/#6, but hopefully Breslow and staff are looking at some angles that don't necessarily show up in the numbers.

He seems like a decent flyer add. He's got some upside. It seems like we have lots of pitchers with some serious or promising upside. I'm fine with one more, and JG was blocked, but at some point we need to rebalance the 40 by trading a couple SP'ers. 

Who knows, maybe Brez & Co have a couple pen conversions in mind. That might work well.

I'm thinking he likes Oviedo more than some of our SP'er depth, so I'm going with the trade idea. Two from Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins or Perales. I can't bring myself to say Bello. I doubt we trade Sandoval. Of course, every team will be demanding Tolle or Early, and maybe for the right return we get bold. Teams need and will overpay for pitching, and we've hoarded them.

[notin]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Mets 86'd that handshake agreement. 😢

f***ing ‘86 Mets!