A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but is he okay playing 2B?

Will Cora dare ask him to?

Will Brez have to fly to his hometown to ask if he might think about it?

Seriously, though. We need more power than he can give, and a sub .800 OPS isn't worth what he'll get paid.

Sub .800? 

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Arizona and Boston talked Marte and exchanged names has been reported. 
 

what if bres-slow is trying to expand the trade? Is there someone else Arizona has that would interest bres-slow??  

If you think you're close, you can always make tiny or absurd requests.  Two off the top of my head:

• AZ has no 1B.  What is their interest, if any, in Casas?
• AZ is supposedly pressed for money.  How much of the Burnes contract would they pay down?  It was a bad signing, but that doesn't make him a bad player.  We owe Hicks & Yoshida ~$55M.  $30M of that offsets Burnes' 2026 salary.  $25M offsets part of $140M owed to Burnes for 2027-30.  That makes him a  $115M/4 player.  If AZ were to chip in another $20-25M, would they be motivated to move on?

90% of the time, such talk amounts to -0-.  But every once in a while...

[Larry Cook]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If you think you're close, you can always make tiny or absurd requests.  Two off the top of my head:

• AZ has no 1B.  What is their interest, if any, in Casas?
• AZ is supposedly pressed for money.  How much of the Burnes contract would they pay down?  It was a bad signing, but that doesn't make him a bad player.  We owe Hicks & Yoshida ~$55M.  $30M of that offsets Burnes' 2026 salary.  $25M offsets part of $140M owed to Burnes for 2027-30.  That makes him a  $115M/4 player.  If AZ were to chip in another $20-25M, would they be motivated to move on?

90% of the time, such talk amounts to -0-.  But every once in a while...

I like your thinking. Someone else posted that Marte is plan b if Alonso does not sign!!!  
 

 

[Hitch]

12 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

 

But If you wanted to weight a team that had 100 Mayer vs. 100 Marte trades and built solely on those players and see how that team/organization is doing 4-5 years down the road.   I'll take the Mayer team every single time. 

I guess therein lies the rub. I'll take the player that's performed to an elite level continually over a kid that has proven nothing and can't hit left handed pitching. 

Your weather analogy is rubbish. 🌞

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I guess therein lies the rub. I'll take the player that's performed to an elite level continually over a kid that has proven nothing and can't hit left handed pitching. 

Your weather analogy is rubbish. 🌞

I took that analogy straight from the cosmos, I thought it was amazing 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I guess therein lies the rub. I'll take the player that's performed to an elite level continually over a kid that has proven nothing and can't hit left handed pitching. 

Your weather analogy is rubbish. 🌞

 

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I took that analogy straight from the cosmos, I thought it was amazing 

There are times where I wouldn take the proven talent as well.  When we are trading from a position of strength for a position of weakness.  Trading from a position of weakness doesn't fit the bill. 

Has anyone ever considered that Arizona would also accept a lesser package? just because they're asking for player XYZ doens't mean they're going to settle on player XYZ.  That's like walking into a car dealership and instantenously agreeing to pay MSRP.  Sure, that car might be a mercedes benz, but it's still MSRP. 

man.....I'm just hemorrhaging amazing analogies

[Hugh2]

If the Diamondbacks want a top infield prospect for Marte perhaps a 3 team trade could be in the works. 

Mariners get Jarren Duran, Hayden Mullins & Tyler Uberstein

Diamondbacks get: Colt Emerson, Kutter Crawford & Teddy McGraw

Red Sox get: Ketel Marte

 

BTV grades this as a small overpay by Boston but returns slightly more value to both Seattle and Arizona.  The Mariners get the outfielder they want plus two arms for their bullpen in Uberstein and Mullins.

Diamonbacks get a top prospect in Colt Emmerson, a young pitcher with team control and another prospect. 

Red Sox get Ketel Marte

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Arizona and Boston talked Marte and exchanged names has been reported. 
 

what if bres-slow is trying to expand the trade? Is there someone else Arizona has that would interest bres-slow??  

Add Masa and Hicks and get Burns added on?

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Add Masa and Hicks and get Burns added on?

Why would Arizona do that?

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Add Masa and Hicks and get Burns added on?

Always trying to add Masa, and Hicks. If the Red Sox don’t want them most likely no other teams do either, or their contracts.🤭

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Add Masa and Hicks and get Burns added on?

BTV Accepts

MARTE for Masataka Yoshida, Jordan Hicks, Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, and Juan Valera.

Then we'd be sitting $40 million under the first cap.  Who do we sign for that money? Bo bichette and ALex Bregman? maybe Bregman and Alonso?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

There are times where I wouldn take the proven talent as well. 

Any fan that cannot see both sides is going to wind up being wrong way to often.  IMO, there are way too many considerations for a straight-out yes or no.

• The age of your trade target
• Recency factor for your target
• Trade value v projected value for your prospect
• The need & fit for your prospect
• The recency factor for your prospect
• Monetary considerations

The guys I have the most interest in trading away:

• Duran-Great value but very poor fit
• Any of our #8-infinity SPs.  No matter what the talent, they are unlikely to ever get a chance.  Someone like Harrison is going to get de-valued quickly if he is sitting in the BP, but has starting value to someone else.
• Campbell-The recency factor hurts him, since he struggled.  But even if he succeeds, we still need an opening, TBD.
• Casas-Bad recency factor, but if we are going to sign an Alonso-type, we need to establish a trade.

And since this is about Mayer/Marte, I'd make Mayer my opening day 3B and never look back.  And I would factor in that Marte likely only has 1-2 very good years left.  Which is fine, since he is cheap.  But my guess is that his contract still only has a surplus value of $36M.  And of course, the second rule of holes is that you don't dig a second hole to fill the first hole.

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Why would Arizona do that?

To get rid of Burnes.

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV Accepts

MARTE for Masataka Yoshida, Jordan Hicks, Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, and Juan Valera.

Then we'd be sitting $40 million under the first cap.  Who do we sign for that money? Bo bichette and ALex Bregman? maybe Bregman and Alonso?

Lets throw in DHam too to clinch the deal.🤫

[JoeBrady]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Always trying to add Masa, and Hicks. If the Red Sox don’t want them most likely no other teams do either, or their contracts.🤭

IMHO, the reason to do so is that Masa has definite value, just not what his salary is.  Hicks still throws 100, so that at least has some lottery ticket value to a team that thinks they can turn him back into a BP contributor.

But the main concept is that Burnes is underwater by about $70M.  So if AZ, who is rumored to be clearing payroll, wants to cut ties with Burnes, they can either $70M, or eat $25M and roll with Masa & Hicks, who might still provide some value.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Why would Arizona do that?

They would not, but I was assuming we'd also add more to the package, too.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They would not, but I was assuming we'd also add more to the package, too.

Still trying to make spaghetti.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV Accepts

MARTE for Masataka Yoshida, Jordan Hicks, Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, and Juan Valera.

Then we'd be sitting $40 million under the first cap.  Who do we sign for that money? Bo bichette and ALex Bregman? maybe Bregman and Alonso?

$40M under?

Burns is $33M AAV and KMarte is about $18M.

Masa $18, Duran $8M & Hicks $10M.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Still trying to make spaghetti.

Someone asked who else we might want. I answered.

It ain't happening.

[Old Red]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

$40M under?

Burns is $33M AAV and KMarte is about $18M.

Masa $18, Duran $8M & Hicks $10M.

BTV everyones Bible doesn’t know a teams wants, needs, or what Any team would do, so what a tool to have.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

BTV everyones Bible doesn’t know a teams wants, needs, or what Any team would do, so what a tool to have.

I love using BTV, but I can't argue against this.  It's an imperfect tool

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

BTV everyones Bible doesn’t know a teams wants, needs, or what Any team would do, so what a tool to have.

Yes, we all know this, and again, I'm not a member of BTV.

[Hugh2]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

To get rid of Burnes.

And....why would we do it?

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

And....why would we do it?

Because we love bounce back pitching promises.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I love using BTV, but I can't argue against this.  It's an imperfect tool

WE ALL IMPERFECT TOOLS!

Shhhhhh....... it's quiet in Orlando this morning.......

[moonslav59]

Report says BOS interested in Paredes. HOU interested in Tolle or Early.

Paredes turns 27 soon. He has 90 HRs in his last 2031 PAs (since '22.) That's almost 30 over 650. He has a .793 OPS since '23.

Career: .805 v L and .754 v R

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Report says BOS interested in Paredes. HOU interested in Tolle or Early.

Paredes turns 27 soon. He has 90 HRs in his last 2031 PAs (since '22.) That's almost 30 over 650. He has a .793 OPS since '23.

Career: .805 v L and .754 v R

You may be most familiar with Paredes in Houston -- what's the word on him? All-Star righty-swinger? 

Looking at stats: around a .350 on base guy the past three years, with sub-20% K-rate. He's also a negative dWAR third baseman. A poor man's Raffy, without the poor attitude? Isaac has actually played 1B, as well as his main spot at 3B.

[drewski6]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Report says BOS interested in Paredes. HOU interested in Tolle or Early.

Paredes turns 27 soon. He has 90 HRs in his last 2031 PAs (since '22.) That's almost 30 over 650. He has a .793 OPS since '23.

Career: .805 v L and .754 v R

I like Paredes, but thats a steep cost (tolle or early)

[drewski6]

I would give like Dobbins or the pitcher we just got for PW for Paredes, and Id prob do it now, because you can move him around , and therefore still pursue one of bregman or alonso or even scwarber (or marte or even bichette)

[Old Red]

56 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I love using BTV, but I can't argue against this.  It's an imperfect tool

One problem I see is mostly you are not trading the same position for the same position, so just, because an OF has a higher value than a pitcher doesn’t necessarily mean to me it would be a so called overpay. Wants, needs, and what a team will actually do you can’t assign a value to IMO.