A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If we do that, then we need to find a 3B.

Zero reason why we should do that.  Then we just have to go out and spend $ on an infielder anyways, So we'd be trading Mayer to increase payroll....that is never going to happen.  

Unless the Diamonbacks want some of our pitchers or our outfielders there is no match here. 

[Hugh2]

34 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Again, agreed. I didn't see either of his last two trades coming. Not even imagined them.

He's going to make some big moves this week, but they might not be obvious ones.

And if nothing else, that's exciting.

Seeing a lot of noise around Diamondbacks wanting Mayer for Marte. Do it all day as long as there are no character questions around Marte.

I see one big more coming, whether it's Marte trade (or something else) or they're signing Bichette or Alonso but they're going to add a high end bat.  Maybe they resign Bregman, if they resign Bregman get ready for a long offseason....I think he's going to go into 2026 like he did last year. 

[Hitch]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If we do that, then we need to find a 3B.

Indeed. Sign Bregman. Or go for a stop gap and fix it next year if need be.

[Hitch]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Zero reason why we should do that.  Then we just have to go out and spend $ on an infielder anyways, So we'd be trading Mayer to increase payroll....that is never going to happen.  

Unless the Diamonbacks want some of our pitchers or our outfielders there is no match here. 

I don't think it will likely be the ask - they seem to want pitching - but there's definitely noise around it. 

If it absolutely is who they want - you do it. We have no idea who Mayer is yet either as a hitter or around health, and at best seems to a platoon right now. If you can get THE best 2nd baseman (a position of need) who hits with power, then you do it and figure out the rest.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don't think it will likely be the ask - they seem to want pitching - but there's definitely noise around it. 

If it absolutely is who they want - you do it. We have no idea who Mayer is yet either as a hitter or around health, and at best seems to a platoon right now. If you can get THE best 2nd baseman (a position of need) who hits with power, then you do it and figure out the rest.

I very much disagree.  

Even if Marte is better than Mayer going forward, he costs money and you are still down the same exact number of infielders.  What if Story regresses? who is your 3B? who is your 1B? we have just as many holes but $22 million dollars more on the payroll for a team we know is operating on a budget. 

It really makes very little sense. 

[Hugh2]

I like Marte a lot, but he's 32 and he's at that age where a player can fall off a cliff any year.  I don't think trading one of your top prospects who has a chance to be your cornerstone SS for a decade for an aging vet getting paid is good business.  Yes, he's one of the best 2nd in baseball but for how much longer? 

I think we have to start thinking about what players WILL DO, and not so much what they HAVE DONE.  Because the wall is undefeated and all these guys are heading for it. 

 

[moonslav59]

One way to not spend so much is by trades.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be gassing up the car and driving them there myself.

I'd make it a minivan and add Crawford.

[Hitch]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I very much disagree.  

Even if Marte is better than Mayer going forward, he costs money and you are still down the same exact number of infielders.  What if Story regresses? who is your 3B? who is your 1B? we have just as many holes but $22 million dollars more on the payroll for a team we know is operating on a budget. 

It really makes very little sense. 

Okay but when we were talking about whether we'd be better in certain situations a week or so ago you were highlighting all the steps forward players would be making, and dismissing regressions. You can't have it all ways Hugh! 😆

He's the single best 2nd baseman in the game. If you get a chance to get him, and for only $17m (LT tax hit) a year, you do it. Especially for an injury prone question mark. If we're worried about payroll or lack of infield depth, we can trade Duran for a young infielder. Or let Casas and Romy share 1st and go get a 3rd baseman. 

Getting Marte for Mayer is unlikely to happen, but it would make us hugely better with still plenty of flexibility to make trades for the other holes, or to sign FA's. 

[Hitch]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I like Marte a lot, but he's 32 and he's at that age where a player can fall off a cliff any year.  I don't think trading one of your top prospects who has a chance to be your cornerstone SS for a decade for an aging vet getting paid is good business.  Yes, he's one of the best 2nd in baseball but for how much longer? 

I think we have to start thinking about what players WILL DO, and not so much what they HAVE DONE.  Because the wall is undefeated and all these guys are heading for it. 

 

Of course, but players are aging better than ever. And Mayer has proven absolutely nothing. He gets lumped in thought wise with Anthony in fans' mind. He is NOWHERE near that level. Nowhere. 

Most prospects (which I'd still count Mayer to be considering he's played so little) flame out. Not some. Most. There's nothing more exciting than seeing a prospect come up and thrive. But you should spend them relatively often for players that have a stellar record of delivering.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Of course, but players are aging better than ever. And Mayer has proven absolutely nothing. He gets lumped in thought wise with Anthony in fans' mind. He is NOWHERE near that level. Nowhere. 

Most prospects (which I'd still count Mayer to be considering he's played so little) flame out. Not some. Most. There's nothing more exciting than seeing a prospect come up and thrive. But you should spend them relatively often for players that have a stellar record of delivering.

It’s like replacing Bregman with Marte but getting rid of Mayer…so now you have another hole.  If we didn’t have a glut of outfielders and less question marks in the infield I’d be for it.  But we arguably have a question mark at every single infield position.  
 

There’s other fish in the sea, it makes astronomically more sense to trade from your outfielder depth for an infielder.

also, if you’re willing to take on 18.4 million in salary and lose Mayer.  Why not take out 8-10 million more and keep Mayer and just sign Bichett?  Now your infield is pretty close to set between Story/Mayer/Bichette.  
 

 

[Hugh2]

correction; Martes AAV will be calulated at 17.25 vs. the Luxury tax. Player options are calculated into AAV as well. 

[Hitch]

36 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It’s like replacing Bregman with Marte but getting rid of Mayer…so now you have another hole.  If we didn’t have a glut of outfielders and less question marks in the infield I’d be for it.  But we arguably have a question mark at every single infield position.  
 

There’s other fish in the sea, it makes astronomically more sense to trade from your outfielder depth for an infielder.

also, if you’re willing to take on 18.4 million in salary and lose Mayer.  Why not take out 8-10 million more and keep Mayer and just sign Bichett?  Now your infield is pretty close to set between Story/Mayer/Bichette.  
 

 

I get all that. I'm not saying this is the way we should go. I'm just saying if it's only what AZ want (seems unlikely) then I'd do it.

I'd rather Marte for £17m and 5 years than Bo at £30m and 8 years personally. There's no clear indication Bo can play defence at 2nd yet - he's certainly awful at SS - though again I wouldn't be against us finding out in another scenario.

I'd certainly prefer an outfielder or pitching was traded for Marte, but if it's Mayer I'd lose no sleep. We can then always trade from the outfield and/or pitchers to get other low cost infielders. 

We have a hell of a lot of flexibility right now because of the number of pitchers (most valuable trade commodity) and outfielders we have for trade. 

There's definitely better routes (for us) but I'm fine with it being Mayer if need be,

[moonslav59]

If we are to just get one positional player add, I'd choose Marte, but having to give something else up makes getting Alonso, Schwarber or even Polanco/Suarez more of an overall net plus.

If we give up Duran or Campbell, then KMarte's cost will be near $12M, which may allow for another add like Suarez or Merrill Kelly.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I get all that. I'm not saying this is the way we should go. I'm just saying if it's only what AZ want (seems unlikely) then I'd do it.

I'd rather Marte for £17m and 5 years than Bo at £30m and 8 years personally. There's no clear indication Bo can play defence at 2nd yet - he's certainly awful at SS - though again I wouldn't be against us finding out in another scenario.

I'd certainly prefer an outfielder or pitching was traded for Marte, but if it's Mayer I'd lose no sleep. We can then always trade from the outfield and/or pitchers to get other low cost infielders. 

We have a hell of a lot of flexibility right now because of the number of pitchers (most valuable trade commodity) and outfielders we have for trade. 

There's definitely better routes (for us) but I'm fine with it being Mayer if need be,

I'd rather do Marte for 17 million a year than Bo for 30 million a year too, but I'd rather have BO/Mayer at 30 than Marte/NA at 17.  Id' also be paying for Mayers 23-28 years vs. Martes 33-38

 

I'd rather have Mayers ages 23-38 and BO at 28-30 million vs. Martes ages 33-38 + hole yet to be filled at 17 million.  So I'm not really even sure I'd do it straight up, if the Sox were at an end to a competitive window I'd do it in a heartbeat.  But there has to be a better match up out there.  If anything, if they want high end infield prospects I'd trade DUran for that and flip them for Marte before I'd ever trade Mayer away. 

 

Remember in the Marte route, you still have another hole to fill, so it's not really a 30-17 comparision. 

[moonslav59]

If we don't get another infielder with Marte, we can't give AZ Mayer to get Marte.

We give an OF'er and a pitcher.

[Hitch]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd rather do Marte for 17 million a year than Bo for 30 million a year too, but I'd rather have BO/Mayer at 30 than Marte/NA at 17.  Id' also be paying for Mayers 23-28 years vs. Martes 33-38

 

I'd rather have Mayers ages 23-38 and BO at 28-30 million vs. Martes ages 33-38 + hole yet to be filled at 17 million.  So I'm not really even sure I'd do it straight up, if the Sox were at an end to a competitive window I'd do it in a heartbeat.  But there has to be a better match up out there.  If anything, if they want high end infield prospects I'd trade DUran for that and flip them for Marte before I'd ever trade Mayer away. 

 

Remember in the Marte route, you still have another hole to fill, so it's not really a 30-17 comparision. 

We'll have to agree to disagree. Mayer has proven absolutely nothing. He's still a prospect who's a platoon player and nothing else right now. I'm not convinced we get anything exceptional from him between years 23-28, but I am sure we'll get some exceptional baseball from Marte over the next 2 to 3 years. 

I'd rather Marte at £17m over the pair of them at £30m+ personally. As I'm fairly sure we can find a player to offer us more than Mayer by trading from our sizeable depth in the outfield and starting pitching, and for not too much money. 

Regardless, I think we both agree that it isn't going to happen, as AZ seem to be after pitching by the sounds of things. But in saying that, the noise around Mayer is continuous. 

Interestingly, and somewhat connected, I just saw one of the big journos (forgot who already - not just the body going to s***) say that at no point did the Sox entertain Early discussions for anyone at the deadline.

[Hitch]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we don't get another infielder with Marte, we can't give AZ Mayer to get Marte.

We give an OF'er and a pitcher.

Yes you can. This deal doesn't stop you from making other moves. Obviously. 

If it was our only move, that would be another matter. And wouldn't make sense in any universe.

 

[Hugh2]

For the reasons I'd be weary of trading for Marte, I'm also weary of re-signing Bregman.  

With very very few caveats, every player who plays the game completley falls off a cliff and becomes a negative WAR player at some point between 30-35. 

We constantly fall into the same trap of assuming a guy, no matter how good is going to continue to do what he's done the last few years over the next few years.  When time and time and time again history proves us wrong. 

The problem is, we remember the guys who play until 40 like David Ortiz, and we never remember the names of the Matt Kemps of the world.  I haven't even thought about Matt Kemp in over a decade but I remember a period of time when we just HAD to trade the farm for him because of how good he was. 

Marte could age well, or not.  Betting on youth like Mayer over Marte isn't going to net positive results all the time but the vast majority of the time they do.  Even if Mayer never amasses the career war that Marte does betting on the Mayers of the world 23-38 over the 33-38 Martes more often than not nets positive results. 

Teams will make good moves and bad moves, no one can predict the future, but good teams are the aggregate of many good sound decisions.  And again, I don't think it's bad trade, it just does not match what this team needs right now and where they are at.  Thats the type of move you make when your window is closing and you're getting desperate.  Sox should not be trading from a place of desperation ESPECIALLY considering they're 100% unwilling to spend the money on guys. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

For the reasons I'd be weary of trading for Marte, I'm also weary of re-signing Bregman.  

With very very few caveats, every player who plays the game completley falls off a cliff and becomes a negative WAR player at some point between 30-35. 

We constantly fall into the same trap of assuming a guy, no matter how good is going to continue to do what he's done the last few years over the next few years.  When time and time and time again history proves us wrong. 

The problem is, we remember the guys who play until 40 like David Ortiz, and we never remember the names of the Matt Kemps of the world.  I haven't even thought about Matt Kemp in over a decade but I remember a period of time when we just HAD to trade the farm for him because of how good he was. 

Marte could age well, or not.  Betting on youth like Mayer over Marte isn't going to net positive results all the time but the vast majority of the time they do.  Even if Mayer never amasses the career war that Marte does betting on the Mayers of the world 23-38 over the 33-38 Martes more often than not nets positive results. 

Teams will make good moves and bad moves, no one can predict the future, but good teams are the aggregate of many good sound decisions.  And again, I don't think it's bad trade, it just does not match what this team needs right now and where they are at.  Thats the type of move you make when your window is closing and you're getting desperate.  Sox should not be trading from a place of desperation ESPECIALLY considering they're 100% unwilling to spend the money on guys. 

I like Marte more than Breggie, but I share you concerns about age regression.

Marte has more power. He's a switch hitter. 

He's 32 and has 5 years of control. That brings him to age 36. That is very old for some/many players, so it is a dice roll.

Bichette is much younger but has little power and may not hit over .800 in any of his 5-7 seasons. (He should not play SS, but will be getting SS money.)

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Marte more than Breggie, but I share you concerns about age regression.

Marte has more power. He's a switch hitter. 

He's 32 and has 5 years of control. That brings him to age 36. That is very old for some/many players, so it is a dice roll.

Bichette is much younger but has little power and may not hit over .800 in any of his 5-7 seasons. (He should not play SS, but will be getting SS money.)

We don't need him to play SS, we already have Story and Mayer who can play SS

[Old Red]

52 minutes ago, Hitch said:

We'll have to agree to disagree. Mayer has proven absolutely nothing. He's still a prospect who's a platoon player and nothing else right now. I'm not convinced we get anything exceptional from him between years 23-28, but I am sure we'll get some exceptional baseball from Marte over the next 2 to 3 years. 

I'd rather Marte at £17m over the pair of them at £30m+ personally. As I'm fairly sure we can find a player to offer us more than Mayer by trading from our sizeable depth in the outfield and starting pitching, and for not too much money. 

Regardless, I think we both agree that it isn't going to happen, as AZ seem to be after pitching by the sounds of things. But in saying that, the noise around Mayer is continuous. 

Interestingly, and somewhat connected, I just saw one of the big journos (forgot who already - not just the body going to s***) say that at no point did the Sox entertain Early discussions for anyone at the deadline.

Mayer is still SUSPECT both health wise, and production on the field. This will be a big year for him to see if he can stay healthy most of all, and then produce on the field to be more than just a platoon player. He has lost a lot of developmental time, because of injuries, and is behind where he could, or should be.

[Hitch]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

 

Marte could age well, or not.  Betting on youth like Mayer over Marte isn't going to net positive results all the time but the vast majority of the time they do. 

The vast majority of the time? Even though the vast majority of prospects flame out? I think that's pushing your narrative too far. 

Young and older players fall off cliffs all the time. One of the maddening reasons this game is so hard to get right.

[Hugh2]

40 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The vast majority of the time? Even though the vast majority of prospects flame out? I think that's pushing your narrative too far. 

Young and older players fall off cliffs all the time. One of the maddening reasons this game is so hard to get right.

I mean we can play this game all day, I probably could have worded that more carefully, there's a difference between a prospect in A ball, vs. AA ball, vs AAA vs. a little MLB experience and on the cusp of a career.  ALso a difference between a guy with good numbers vs. a top 100 guy vs a top 25 vs a top 10. 

But If you wanted to weight a team that had 100 Mayer vs. 100 Marte trades and built solely on those players and see how that team/organization is doing 4-5 years down the road.   I'll take the Mayer team every single time. 

[Hugh2]

42 minutes ago, Hitch said:

 

Young and older players fall off cliffs all the time. One of the maddening reasons this game is so hard to get right.

Yes and none of us have a crystal ball, we don't definitively know who is going to bust and exactly what year the Martes of the world will hit a wall.  But we do know the general directions they move in.  Youth gets better, and older guys get older and decline.  

It's a lot like predicting the weather.  They have no ideal what is going to happen two weeks from now but we know with absolute certainty that it's going to be cold in the winter and warm in the summer. 

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Of course, but players are aging better than ever.

The problem is that pitchers are getting faster more quickly than hitters are aging better.  In the past 10 years, there have only been 12 players that have averaged 2.5 fWAR/year.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean we can play this game all day,

I'm pretty sure it is a moot point.  You don't choose a guy overall #3, develop him into a top-15 prospect, have an opening for him, and then trade him.  While there are almost never guarantees, this is the prototype for a good draft pick.  I'd be very surprised if he wasn't our starting 3B.

[Larry Cook]

Thus far in the winter meetings, we learned the Sox are not pursuing the twins ace anymore!!! 
 

good start for us! 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

We don't need him to play SS, we already have Story and Mayer who can play SS

True, but is he okay playing 2B?

Will Cora dare ask him to?

Will Brez have to fly to his hometown to ask if he might think about it?

Seriously, though. We need more power than he can give, and a sub .800 OPS isn't worth what he'll get paid.

[Larry Cook]

Arizona and Boston talked Marte and exchanged names has been reported. 
 

what if bres-slow is trying to expand the trade? Is there someone else Arizona has that would interest bres-slow??