A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

7 hours ago, Old Red said:

I think Brez had a big Brain Fart when he signed Sandoval just like he did when he signed Liam Hendricks with the idea of him being the closer last year. Luckily Chapman who wasn’t intended to have such a big roll bailed him, and the Red Sox out Big time.

Well look at you once again with the inside info on why moves were made.

Probably never been right about, but it’s inspiring that you keep trying anyway…

[Old Red]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Well look at you once again with the inside info on why moves were made.

Probably never been right about, but it’s inspiring that you keep trying anyway…

Wow! Your analysis is that thinking something means you have an inside info? Really? You seem to think that signing an injured Hendricks with the intention of making him the closer was a good idea, which isn’t surprising at all' and if Thinking something is having inside info then I’ve seen a lot more inside info from some on here that have been wrong a lot more than me.🤭🙈👋.

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He seems like a decent flyer add. He's got some upside. It seems like we have lots of pitchers with some serious or promising upside. I'm fine with one more, and JG was blocked, but at some point we need to rebalance the 40 by trading a couple SP'ers. 

Who knows, maybe Brez & Co have a couple pen conversions in mind. That might work well.

I'm thinking he likes Oviedo more than some of our SP'er depth, so I'm going with the trade idea. Two from Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins or Perales. I can't bring myself to say Bello. I doubt we trade Sandoval. Of course, every team will be demanding Tolle or Early, and maybe for the right return we get bold. Teams need and will overpay for pitching, and we've hoarded them.

So when you say you’re thinking Brez likes The Big o more than some of the other SP depth you have inside info? When you say I doubt they trade the Great Sandoval you have inside info? How about a package of Sandoval, Hicks, and Masa? I’ll have to check BTV to see what’s an overpayment, and then let’s TARDE.🤓

[Randy Red Sox]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Then he wasn't too happy in 4 or 5 of the last 7 seasons.

it depends on what your idea of competitive is. The team has never totally stunk in those 7 years and JH has continued to reap big profits. This offseason has started just like the last several ones--spend on good but not great talent and go on 1 or 2 MAX yr deals and take flyers on rehabbing SP. With Bregman at least temporarily off the books and Devers totally off this team has PLENTY to spend. Even if Bregman is brought back it will be for far less than 40 million per and he along with the inevitable good but not great bat will be enough to simply keep the team competitive.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/5/2025 at 8:01 AM, moonslav59 said:

He was a fine #3 in 2025. Some stats show him as top 60, so maybe a #2, but he did drop off in SEP. 

I'm not sure we can read into that too much and claim he can't be trusted in the PS. He only had one shot.

They can hardly afford to deal Bello. He may not be a #2 but he he is at least a #3 and is a step up from the other options save possibly Gray.  I have no idea how the Sox can pencil in Sandoval into the rotation given his lengthy absence due to injury.

[notin]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

Wow! Your analysis is that thinking something means you have an inside info? Really? You seem to think that signing an injured Hendricks with the intention of making him the closer was a good idea, which isn’t surprising at all' and if Thinking something is having inside info then I’ve seen a lot more inside info from some on here that have been wrong a lot more than me.🤭🙈👋.

No.  I am questioning your whole logic of “they signed an injured Hendriks to be the closer.  They got lucky Chapman was able to fill in.” 
 

This might be worse than your “the Sox only re-signed Kike because he was good in the postseason.”   So you really thought they ignored his elite performance as a center fielder and ignored his versatility and only re-signed him because he had a couple multi-hit games on October?

And now - so the Sox gave Chapman over $11mill without a role in mind?  Next you’ll be telling us the Sox weren’t even aware Chapman has ever closed games. 
 

Also - maybe it’s time to just drop the “Sox got lucky with Chapman” idiocy.  The Sox gave him lots of money for some reason.  And if you truly believe Henry is cheap, then you should also believe he is not a fan of 8- figure lottery tickets on relief pitchers.

It’s actually ok to admit you don’t know why some moves are made. No one else here does either. Most of us just don’t pretend to so as to fit everything into our personal understanding of the game.

 

As for inside info, I have none.  Even if I mention having sources, I facetiously refer to them as non-existent.  I never blatantly fabricate motives for the Sox and try to pass them off as history.  If I do try to understand their motivation for anything, I always present it as conjecture.  
 

And I am probably as in touch with the interior motives as any of us here, which is barely at all…

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

They can hardly afford to deal Bello. He may not be a #2 but he he is at least a #3 and is a step up from the other options save possibly Gray.  I have no idea how the Sox can pencil in Sandoval into the rotation given his lengthy absence due to injury.

I do think they can afford to deal Bello.  I don’t think it’s likely.

Bello (1.9 fWAR in 166 IP) is easily replaced by Early (1.1 fWAR in 14 IP).

[moonslav59]

That '86 Sox team was fun to watch.  Those years might have been the best Sox rotations in over 60 years. That team might not have even been the best of the era. Some tidbits:

The 5-6 starters had 39 GS: Nopper (26) 5.38 and Sellers (13) 4.94. Our #4 was Seaver at 3.80, the #3 was Oil Can Boyd (30) at 3.78, and our #2 was Hurst (25) at 2.99. The ace was Clemens (33) 2.48 who brought a whole new mentality to building a winning team. On a personal note, that was the start of my taking snack and bathroom breaks during the Sox batting half innings and not when the opponents were up. Starter ERA 3.74 with a .716 OPSA.

The pen was pretty awful. Bob Stanley (4.37) finished and astounding 50 games with only 16 saves in just 21 opportunities. The pen saved 41 in 55 chances (75%.) Not bad for a 1.62 WHIP and 4.53 ERA. The OPSA was a whopping .805!

The '86 Sox had 8 players with over 450 PAs and all were over .713!

.939 Boggs (.453 OBP!)

.874 Baylor (31 HRs & 97 rbi)

.853 Evans (26 HRs & 61 XBHs)

.783 Rice (at age 33- just before the start of his steep decline)

.733 Buckner (59 XBHs & 102 rbi)

.733 Barrett (.353 OBP)

.714 Armas (36 XBHs in 425 ABs)

Dave Henderson provided the drama, while Quinones (.657) Romero (.553) & Spike Owens (.521) were the SSs.

Man! We came Sooooooooooooooooo Close!

[Larry Cook]

19 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

JH is satisfied as long as the team is competitive and he is making money.

And why shouldn’t owners be competitive and love making money???

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

And why shouldn’t owners be competitive and love making money???

Exactly. These guys didn't get rich by being softies and focused more on customer satisfaction over the bottom line.

The other point I like to make is that other teams have rich owners, too, and if JH doubles his spending, what would happen if all owners did, too? In a way, we want our owner to increase spending by more than the others, and what is the justification for that happening?

Because JH is richer than most other owners? Because he shouldn't want to make more money than other owners? Because he owes spoiled fans something?

Please, do not take this as a defense of JH and owners. I'm going to resist getting political, here, but it is the way of the world. It's all about money.

[JoeBrady]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

They got lucky Chapman was able to fill in.” 

Why is it always 'luck' when the RS sign the right guy at the right price?

[Larry Cook]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Why is it always 'luck' when the RS sign the right guy at the right price?

Exactly!!   I think luck is confused with perspective.  

Not luck with Chapman, just a different perspective.

Like Wong teaching Chapman how to throw so his pitches do not float over the heart of the plate!

Like the Red Sox getting him to throw that slider looking pitch more! 

 

[JoeBrady]

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

And why shouldn’t owners be competitive and love making money???

Nothing wrong whatsoever with being competitive and making money.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Why is it always 'luck' when the RS sign the right guy at the right price?

The flip side is that it's never bad luck when someone we sign sucks or gets hurt. It's "stupid, bonehead GMs!"

[Larry Cook]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The flip side is that it's never bad luck when someone we sign sucks or gets hurt. It's "stupid, bonehead GMs!"

Injuries are a huge part of baseball!!   And faulting the GM is a sad reality!!!

Now some of the terrible scrap  heap pitchers hang’em Chaim signed and hang’em Chaim trotting out the worst defensive team in the majors several years in a row, those moves fall into the stupid boneheaded GM moves. 
 

but injuries have always been and always will be a reality in this game!!! Nobody to blame. 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Injuries are a huge part of baseball!!   And faulting the GM is a sad reality!!!

Now some of the terrible scrap  heap pitchers hang’em Chaim signed and hang’em Chaim trotting out the worst defensive team in the majors several years in a row, those moves fall into the stupid boneheaded GM moves. 
 

but injuries have always been and always will be a reality in this game!!! Nobody to blame. 

I was no fan of the Gio signing, but it looked like we finally signed a pitcher that appeared reliable and or wasn't 34+ years old. BAM! What a "dumb signing!"

We dealt with years and years of Sale injuries, and we finally decide enough is enough. We trade him away for a promising player that was our best bet to finally solve the decade long 2B problem, then BAM! Grissom sucks and Sale resurges at a very late age. "Stupid GM!!!"

I could go on and on...

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

here, but it is the way of the world. It's all about money.

Feel free to disagree, but people like to be motivated with money.  With very little exception, more money draws in more qualified employees requiring more work.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Feel free to disagree, but people like to be motivated with money.  With very little exception, more money draws in more qualified employees requiring more work.

I totally agree. Top money draws the top CEOs and managers, too.

Every business and every team tries to make money. Most try to win as many games as possible within some sort of player budget guideline. How that budget is set tends to affect the chances of winning with many teams, but some high spending teams often fail, while a few lower spending teams often win more than expected. That's not too different from other businesses run by managers of varying competency levels.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Top money draws the top CEOs and managers, too.

When I first joined a really big company, with real money, it was a culture shock to find out that even the people working for me had better resumes than me.  It's a little disconcerting to  be sitting at a closing meeting without being able to add anything to the conversation.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

When I first joined a really big company, with real money, it was a culture shock to find out that even the people working for me had better resumes than me.  It's a little disconcerting to  be sitting at a closing meeting without being able to add anything to the conversation.

I've only worked for companies with make-believe money.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

When I first joined a really big company, with real money, it was a culture shock to find out that even the people working for me had better resumes than me.  It's a little disconcerting to  be sitting at a closing meeting without being able to add anything to the conversation.

I have always tried to surround myself with people much smarter than me!!  An organization. Is only as strong as its weakest link!!!  
if I am the weakest link, then my organization is really good!!!!

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've only worked for companies with make-believe money.

I've worked for two not-for-profits for maybe 30 years.  Less money, less headaches, better quality of life.  I worked for one very large company, and they simply threw money at everything.  And that has its upsides, but in the long run, I preferred my time at the NFPs, especially my final one.  I've been blessed.

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I have always tried to surround myself with people much smarter than me!!  An organization. Is only as strong as its weakest link!!!  
if I am the weakest link, then my organization is really good!!!!

In my second job, the person I eventually replaced was frighteningly poor.  It took no effort to automate a lot of what they did.  So all my boss had to do was to wake me once a month to push a couple of buttons.  Then I had to stumble out of my office, complain about hellish conditions, and hand over my reports.

[notin]

23 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Why is it always 'luck' when the RS sign the right guy at the right price?

Because a lot of folks don’t like when the team isnt run the way they like? Therefore anything right can only be luck…

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/6/2025 at 8:57 AM, notin said:

I do think they can afford to deal Bello.  I don’t think it’s likely.

Bello (1.9 fWAR in 166 IP) is easily replaced by Early (1.1 fWAR in 14 IP).

I like Early but 14 ip is hardly a sample size to even consider. It makes about as much as pencilling in Sandal for a rotation spot.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I like Early but 14 ip is hardly a sample size to even consider. It makes about as much as pencilling in Sandal for a rotation spot.

I'm not sure I'd go that far, but 14 IP is next to nothing.

Minor league numbers do count, though, and Sandlin has looked awful, of late, whereas Early was looking pretty damn good. That's why he was chosen over Sandlin, Criswell and Harrison.

Unless sone guys get hurt or look awful or great in ST'ing, I'd make out the rotation order like this:

1. Crochet

2. Gray

3. Bello (may pass Gray)

4. Sandoval (not by much- could be the 5)

5. Oviedo

6. Crawford (the toughest choice)

7. Harrison

T8. Dobbins, Early, Tolle

AAAA: Perales, Sandlin, Uberstine, Drohan

[Randy Red Sox]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure I'd go that far, but 14 IP is next to nothing.

Minor league numbers do count, though, and Sandlin has looked awful, of late, whereas Early was looking pretty damn good. That's why he was chosen over Sandlin, Criswell and Harrison.

Unless sone guys get hurt or look awful or great in ST'ing, I'd make out the rotation order like this:

1. Crochet

2. Gray

3. Bello (may pass Gray)

4. Sandoval (not by much- could be the 5)

5. Oviedo

6. Crawford (the toughest choice)

7. Harrison

T8. Dobbins, Early, Tolle

AAAA: Perales, Sandlin, Uberstine, Drohan

sorry i meant Sandoval -spellcheck.  i can't put him in the rotation already but once he pitches in ST that could change

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I like Early but 14 ip is hardly a sample size to even consider. It makes about as much as pencilling in Sandal for a rotation spot.

I'm wondering if he might be pitching his way out of Boston.  He was a 5th rounder and not ranked, and had a high walk rate throughout the minors.  I was impressed with his pitching, but I am wondering if the outstanding 19.1 IPs has pushed his value past his true talent.  That kind of decision way, way above my pay grade, but sometimes it's okay to cash in some chips.  Especially if someone else really likes those chips.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

sorry i meant Sandoval -spellcheck.  i can't put him in the rotation already but once he pitches in ST that could change

I get the argument on Sandoval, but Crawford missed the whole '25 season and pitched worse in '24 than '23, so I don't see him as ahead of Sandoval.

Harrison was supposed to be the gem in the Devers trade and was healthy all of 2025, but I have to ask why Brez kept selecting others, everytime we needed a spot start or everyday starter. Brez traded for DMay, gave Criswell a start and ended up adding Tolle & Early to the 40, so they could start over Harrison. Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but I don't see Harrison as above Sandoval and maybe not even above Dobbins, Tolle & Early, as well.

Oviedo just came off a major injury and a lot of missed time and got 9 starts. His 11% BB rate is frightening, but I do think he has a good shot at the #4 or 5 slot, and I'm ok him 4 or 5, but that still leaves Sandoval in the starting 5.

This is all conjecture, and so much can change by the time opening day arrives. I think we all know that, and trying to order them, now may seem pointless or skeptical to some or many. I realize I may be way overboard on just how good Sandoval can be or was a couple years ago. Some look back at his record and are far from impressed, and to those I ask, "What's so impressive about Crawford or Harrison? How much can we value small sample sizes by Dobbins, Early and I guess Tolle, who did not look all the good in his short stint.

Everything can be shuffled, especially with injuries or surprises before or during ST'ing.

 

[moonslav59]

Another "interest" report for the Sox: Ketel Marte.

All along, I thought trading for a #2 SP'er was the best idea, and we did make two trades for SP'ers, but I don't see either as a sure-fire #2. I doubt we make a mega deal for a #2, unless we trade a couple SP'ers in the package or make a seperate deal for Marte, using SP'ers as bait.

It's hard to know if AZ wants Duran, Abreu, Rafaela or Campbell, and if not, I'm not sure we can offer enough without severely affecting our promising young pitcher numbers. Maybe a third team can be pulled in- like Duran for Painter, then flipping Painter or Early/Tolle along with Arias and others for KMarte.

KMarte checks a lot of boxes:

Power (5th in SLG in last 2 yrs and 64 Hrs - 10th in MLB)

RHB (and LHB) Switch hitter with nice splits (over .890 vs L & R in '25)

2B (Fills a decade long massive hole.)

His $19.5M AAV is doable, and if we send Duran (7.7) or Campbell (7.5) in the deal, he'd only add about $12M to the budget. This might be the only way we can add two big bats without hurting JH's tight wallet.