A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, harmony said:

A Kansas City blogger proposes a trade of Cole Ragans to Boston for Jarren Duran,  Kyson Witherspoon and Jhostynxon Garcia:

https://royalskeep.com/news-rumors/kansas-city-royals/what-would-it-take-for-kansas-city-to-trade-away-cole-ragans-r3968/

 

No. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

47 minutes ago, harmony said:

A Kansas City blogger proposes a trade of Cole Ragans to Boston for Jarren Duran,  Kyson Witherspoon and Jhostynxon Garcia:

https://royalskeep.com/news-rumors/kansas-city-royals/what-would-it-take-for-kansas-city-to-trade-away-cole-ragans-r3968/

 

What -- it's not enough to trade an All-Star for an All-Star, but the Royals also deserve a really good pitching prospect and a really good outfield prospect?

Let's also remember that Ragans -- a pitcher who plays once a week instead of daily like Duran -- also comes with injury questions... unlike someone who's never hurt and would play every inning of every game if the manager let him.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

What -- it's not enough to trade an All-Star for an All-Star, but the Royals also deserve a really good pitching prospect and a really good outfield prospect?

Let's also remember that Ragans -- a pitcher who plays once a week instead of daily like Duran -- also comes with injury questions... unlike someone who's never hurt and would play every inning of every game if the manager let him.

Ragans pitched all of 61 innings last year -in between injuries and all. might as well throw in Anthony and Mayer too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Ragans pitched all of 61 innings last year -in between injuries and all. might as well throw in Anthony and Mayer too.

Ragans pitched 61 innings? ... or divided by 9 = not even 7 games.

Duran only played in One Hundred Fifty-Seven games.

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ragans pitched 61 innings? ... or divided by 9 = not even 7 games.

Duran only played in One Hundred Fifty-Seven games.

Ragans history concerns me as well, but value isn't built by solely what you did last season. 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ragans history concerns me as well, but value isn't built by solely what you did last season. 

He did have 186 IP in '24 (3.14 ERA/2.99 FIP)

Between 2024 and 2025, he's started 45 out of maybe 65 possible GS'd. That's aout 70%.

Mayer has played in 164 games from 2024 to 2025- counting minor league games. That's maybe 55-60%?

Do we feel better with Crawford in our rotation? How about Dobbins or Perales? I know, lets put it all on Sandoval!

Seriously though, I have major worries about Ragans, especially in light of all those others I just listed already on the 40, but no doubt, Ragans is a damn good pitcher, when healthy. We can't say the same about Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, harrison, Perales or even Gray and Bello.

[moonslav59]

Would this work?

Rafaela ($6.3M) and Campbell (7.5M) for K Marte ($19.5M)

Sign Alonso $28M x 5, Matz $5M x 2 and Refsnyder $4M x 1

That adds about $40M to the 2026 budget and keeps us under the second line.

1. L Anthony CF/LF/RF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. L Duran LF/CF

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder LF

6. R Story SS

7. L Casas or Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH/2B

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

Bench: Wong, Romy, Refsnyder, Garcia/DHam/Sogard/Eaton (Romero, Gray, Ward)

SP: Crochet, Gray, Bello and 2 from Sandoval/Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison/Early/Tolle/Perales

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Criswell, Moran, Hicks and Kelly/Sandlin/Mullins/Uberstine/Drohan/Song or converted SP'ers.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ragans pitched 61 innings? ... or divided by 9 = not even 7 games.

Duran only played in One Hundred Fifty-Seven games.

Crochet only played in 23 games in that case. Trade Crochet for two more Durans! 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would this work?

Rafaela ($6.3M) and Campbell (7.5M) for K Marte ($19.5M)

NO.

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

NO.

Rats

[Hugh2]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He did have 186 IP in '24 (3.14 ERA/2.99 FIP)

Between 2024 and 2025, he's started 45 out of maybe 65 possible GS'd. That's aout 70%.

Mayer has played in 164 games from 2024 to 2025- counting minor league games. That's maybe 55-60%?

Do we feel better with Crawford in our rotation? How about Dobbins or Perales? I know, lets put it all on Sandoval!

Seriously though, I have major worries about Ragans, especially in light of all those others I just listed already on the 40, but no doubt, Ragans is a damn good pitcher, when healthy. We can't say the same about Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, harrison, Perales or even Gray and Bello.

No, but unlike Ragans you're not counting on any of those guys to be your #1-#3. 

 

Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison....those are all guys in your #4 or #5 spot.  Sandoval at #5 if they actually traded for Ragans and kept Bello. 

[harmony]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

What -- it's not enough to trade an All-Star for an All-Star, but the Royals also deserve a really good pitching prospect and a really good outfield prospect?

Let's also remember that Ragans -- a pitcher who plays once a week instead of daily like Duran -- also comes with injury questions... unlike someone who's never hurt and would play every inning of every game if the manager let him.

Kansas City fans tend to overvalue Cole Ragans (just as Boston fans tend to overvalue Jarren Duran).

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, harmony said:

Kansas City fans tend to overvalue Cole Ragans (just as Boston fans tend to overvalue Jarren Duran).

I dont think Id put Duran in the top 3 of players that RS fans seem to overrate but sure prob overrate him compared to non RS fans, sure.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

NO.

AZ says no?

If yes, how about adding Crawford or Harrison?

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No, but unlike Ragans you're not counting on any of those guys to be your #1-#3. 

 

Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison....those are all guys in your #4 or #5 spot.  Sandoval at #5 if they actually traded for Ragans and kept Bello. 

I get that, but he'd be replacing Crawford or Dobbins/Harrison.

The issue is how many GS he gets in 2026 and beyond. I share your deep concern.

[Duran Is The Man]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

AZ says no?

If yes, how about adding Crawford or Harrison?

Ketel is 3 years older than Duran. isn't he "declining" as you often say of Duran? i think you're overpaying again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Kansas City fans tend to overvalue Cole Ragans (just as Boston fans tend to overvalue Jarren Duran).

Duran was the Sox' top position player the past two years in WAR. Granted, those teams weren't world-beaters...

Personally, I'm not a Duran guy and wouldn't flinch if he gets traded... but only for commensurate value.

I like Ragans, but I'm not throwing in a package of talent for him when guys like Ryan are out there with fewer question marks.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Duran was the Sox' top position player the past two years in WAR. Granted, those teams weren't world-beaters...

Personally, I'm not a Duran guy and wouldn't flinch if he gets traded... but only for commensurate value.

I like Ragans, but I'm not throwing in a package of talent for him when guys like Ryan are out there with fewer question marks.

exactly.

[Larry Cook]

28 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Personally, I'm not a Duran guy and wouldn't flinch if he gets traded... but only for commensurate value.

Is commensurate value as a 7 war player or a 4 war player???

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Ketel is 3 years older than Duran. isn't he "declining" as you often say of Duran? i think you're overpaying again.

I withdrew my remark about Duran declining based on one year drop.

To me, Duran & KMarte are apples and oranges. We have 4 FT OF'ers and 3 decent back-ups. We haven't had a decent FT 2Bman in a decade. That's point one.

Duran had a good season in 2025, a great one in '24 and over a half a good one in '23. He has an .810 OPS since 2023 (123 OPS+) He steals bases, but his defense is not good, and his arm is weak. He has splits that point to a platoon situation. He just turned 29.

K Marte just turned 32, so he's 3 years older. He's under control for 4 years to Duran's 3. He's a switch hitter with nice splits and way more power. His 3 year OPS is .887 (OPS+ of 141- significantly better than Duran. He averages 35 HRs per 162 : 2x Duran's 17.4) and had a .368 OBP.

[moonslav59]

Some 2B Trade options (age on opening day):

Donovan STL ~$5.8M last arb (29 yrs old) LHB 118 OPS+ (116/ 3 yrs w 16 HRs per 162)

B Lowe TBR $11.5M/1 remaining (31.5 yrs old) LHB 116 OPS+ (116/3 yrs w 34 HRs per 162)

K Marte AZ $91M/5 remaining (32 yrs old) SHB 145 OPS+ (141/ 3 yrs w 35 HRs per 162)

[harmony]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Duran was the Sox' top position player the past two years in WAR. Granted, those teams weren't world-beaters...

Personally, I'm not a Duran guy and wouldn't flinch if he gets traded... but only for commensurate value.

I like Ragans, but I'm not throwing in a package of talent for him when guys like Ryan are out there with fewer question marks.

FWIW Steamer projects Cole Ragans with a 2026 WAR of 4.2 in 172 innings over 29 starts and Jarren Duran with a 2026 WAR of 2.5 in 605 plate appearances over 133 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764733448&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764733448&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Upcoming projections from other sources may flip those numbers because Ragans and Duran are difficult to project.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is commensurate value as a 7 war player or a 4 war player???

5.5

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's under control for 4 years to Duran's 3.

That's a bug, not a feature.  It's actually 5 years plus a one-year player.  I'd much rather pay Duran thru age 31 and be done with him, than be paying Marte $22M at ages 35 & 36.

[Larry Cook]

44 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

5.5

Bres-slow would be wise to shop Duran as a 7 war player!!  

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some 2B Trade options (age on opening day):

If I felt compelled to add a 2B, I'd simply sign Polanco and trade Duran for an SP.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Ketel is 3 years older than Duran. isn't he "declining" as you often say of Duran? i think you're overpaying again.

I think Moon is under-estimating the age issue.  From 2021-2025 (5 years), for ages 32-36 (5 years), FG shows only 6 players with a WAR > 10.0.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think Moon is under-estimating the age issue.  From 2021-2025 (5 years), for ages 32-36 (5 years), FG shows only 6 players with a WAR > 10.0.

I might be, but KMarte seems to be handling age pretty well.

We need a power bat, and if JH wont pay for one, I'm looking for other ways. Not many power bats up for trade.

Granted, there are worries.

Nobody seems worried about Schwarber's age.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody seems worried about Schwarber's age.

I would be, but it also depends on the length of the deal.  No one worried about Pujols, and he had only one good year with the Angels.  No one worried about Trout.  No one worries about anyone 31-32, until they stop.  And all of them stop.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Bres-slow would be wise to shop Duran as a 7 war player!!  

Especially after this just happened: