A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

There was a parking lot there at that time…

Bo's mom and dad weren't parking -- they both had more class than that... and more muscles from working out that would trash dashboards, steering wheels and glove compartments. 

[moonslav59]

Wow! O"Hearn gets $29M/2 from PIT.

He's 32 and mostly a DH/1B/RF. 122 OPS+ since 2023. 46 Hrs and a .788 OPS.

Yoshida has a 109 OPS+, 29 Hrs and a .762 OPS over the same timeframe. He's also 32.

Makes me think maybe Masa could be worth $12-14M/2 to somebody. ( i was thinking more like $8-10M/2, before this news.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Not that long ago, almost nothing happened before Christmas around MLB.  This is fast-paced.

And Breslow hasn’t let us down in the offseason yet, has he?  

I have hopes for Breslow, I'll leave it at that.  I think I'm more disillusioned with ownership than anything.  It's not like Henry isn't spending at all, but it's different than it was before.  #22 in payroll as a % of revenue is pretty darn low.  They're not capitalizing on their financial might.  And the results are what they are, under Bloom and Breslow they've made the playoffs twice in 6 years.  Or maybe I'm spoiled by 2004-2018.             

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I have hopes for Breslow, I'll leave it at that.  I think I'm more disillusioned with ownership than anything.  It's not like Henry isn't spending at all, but it's different than it was before.  #22 in payroll as a % of revenue is pretty darn low.  They're not capitalizing on their financial might.  And the results are what they are, under Bloom and Breslow they've made the playoffs twice in 6 years.  Or maybe I'm spoiled by 2004-2018.             

I wonder what our % of revenue was at in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow! O"Hearn gets $29M/2 from PIT.

He's 32 and mostly a DH/1B/RF. 122 OPS+ since 2023. 46 Hrs and a .788 OPS.

Yoshida has a 109 OPS+, 29 Hrs and a .762 OPS over the same timeframe. He's also 32.

Makes me think maybe Masa could be worth $12-14M/2 to somebody. ( i was thinking more like $8-10M/2, before this news.)

 

Tjhose stats provide a significant difference in production.

And Ryan O'Hearn can play in the field (and is 11 days younger).

[Duran Is The Man]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm fine with both in a vacuum if there's a legit plan for 2b or 3b. Schwarber doesn't make sense roster-wise because they still have Masa lingering. Alonso's contract will age very poorly. 

Will they just sign Bo and move Mayer to 3b? Will they re-sign Breggie and hope for health luck over the next 5+ years? Trade for Donovan and run out a very weak lineup? 

Alonso's contract might age poorly, but he's essentially three years younger than Contrares. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I have hopes for Breslow, I'll leave it at that.  I think I'm more disillusioned with ownership than anything.  It's not like Henry isn't spending at all, but it's different than it was before.  #22 in payroll as a % of revenue is pretty darn low.  They're not capitalizing on their financial might.  And the results are what they are, under Bloom and Breslow they've made the playoffs twice in 6 years.  Or maybe I'm spoiled by 2004-2018.             

the Dodgers don't seem to have a problem missing the playoffs or missing out on free agents they want.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, harmony said:

Tjhose stats provide a significant difference in production.

And Ryan O'Hearn can play in the field (and is 11 days younger).

Yes, I figured more than twice the value: 

$29M/2 O'Hearn

$12-14M/2 Yoshida.

Originally, I thought Yoshida might be worth 1/4 to 1/3 that.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Alonso's contract might age poorly, but he's essentially three years younger than Contrares. 

Brez really dislikes 3+ year deals. The age seems secondary.

He did sign Chapman and extend him.

He did trade for 1-2 years of Sonny Gray.

It's the years and not so much the age.

[vegasbob]

I just cannot discount that team roster building via trades or FA's is currently influenced , at least in Boston, in anticipation of the possible work stoppage in 2027 .

Henry probably has a good feel for his fellow owners positions on the key matter of a salary cap .  If he thinks they will push hard on that item , even if compromised later like maybe July,   I can see why there has been no rush to get into a multi-year  premium for a player already over 30.    

Slow play 2026 , hope for continued development of Mayer , Anthony, Tolle , etc. and see where the collective bargaining agreement goes.   This current roster should still be able to compete for a WC spot and I bet that is acceptable in the owner's Suite and maybe in the FO .

Any new CBA , however, will still have to accommodate the current spending of team's like the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees and if anything like a salary cap gets introduced it will have to be gradually applied, perhaps with upgrades in minimums  and other benefits for mid and lower level players , socialism being in vogue in some areas.

[moonslav59]

Merry

Christmas!

[notin]

18 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bo's mom and dad weren't parking -- they both had more class than that... and more muscles from working out that would trash dashboards, steering wheels and glove compartments. 

Not glove compartments! No way!

 

Im calling BS here…

[notin]

15 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the Dodgers don't seem to have a problem missing the playoffs or missing out on free agents they want.

Or landing $2billion TV deals. The Sox might not soend as much as they can and should, but the playing field still wouldn’t be level…

[notin]

15 hours ago, vegasbob said:

I just cannot discount that team roster building via trades or FA's is currently influenced , at least in Boston, in anticipation of the possible work stoppage in 2027 .

Henry probably has a good feel for his fellow owners positions on the key matter of a salary cap .  If he thinks they will push hard on that item , even if compromised later like maybe July,   I can see why there has been no rush to get into a multi-year  premium for a player already over 30.    

Slow play 2026 , hope for continued development of Mayer , Anthony, Tolle , etc. and see where the collective bargaining agreement goes.   This current roster should still be able to compete for a WC spot and I bet that is acceptable in the owner's Suite and maybe in the FO .

Any new CBA , however, will still have to accommodate the current spending of team's like the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees and if anything like a salary cap gets introduced it will have to be gradually applied, perhaps with upgrades in minimums  and other benefits for mid and lower level players , socialism being in vogue in some areas.

Especially the Mets.  Far and away the worst spenders in MLB.  Have you seen that current roster?  That has to be the worst use of $320million since The Electric State….

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Not glove compartments! No way!

 

Im calling BS here…

Dante used to hang his backpack bat bag on the passenger seat. You don't think a couple good kicks could break the zipper on the glove compartment?

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Any new CBA , however, will still have to accommodate the current spending of team's like the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees and if anything like a salary cap gets introduced

I'm not sure that MLB has as much of an interest in payroll caps as the fans.  The poor teams don't want a high floor.  The rich teams don't want a low ceiling.  The $400M in taxes funds different programs.  And the 110% tax that DD will have to pay for Realmuto at least nominally reins in some spending.

[Old Red]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez really dislikes 3+ year deals. The age seems secondary.

He did sign Chapman and extend him.

He did trade for 1-2 years of Sonny Gray.

It's the years and not so much the age.

I think you’re spot on. He’ll extend the young guys cause it’s cheaper, but only offering Alonso 3 years for someone I believe they wanted is a tell, and goes along with what McAdams reported that an agent old him. I still think years is the sticking point on Bregman. If Donavan comes next that will even be a Bigger tell.

[moonslav59]

We are not the only ALE team with major concerns and issues.

The Sox lost nearly 1200 PAs with a combined OPS of about .850 from Bregman, Devers, Refsnyder & N Lowe, and there is talk of trading Duran, too. The Sox lost Gio, Wilson, some other pitchers by trade, but also Buehler and others who did not do so well. The Sox added Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras & Oviedo plus Watson and a few prospects- some of whom might pitch in MLB, soon. Crawford, Sandoval, Abreu, Slaten, Anthony and others (Casas & Masa) are expected to return from injuries. The Sox sorely need a big RHB, preferably a 2B/3Bman. They may be able to get by without a #2 SP'er, as their rotation is ranked #2 by one major site.

Toronto has made some splashes with the Cease, Ponce and Tyler Rogers signings. These should more than offset the loss of Bassitt, Scherzer & S Dominguez. The Jays also lose Ty France & Kiner-Falefa. The big loss will be Bo Bichette, but as with many teams, there is talk of more big additions. With no more additions, I do not see them as better, right now.

The Yankees 2026 season seems to hinge on the return of Cole from a serious injury. Maybe some Sox fans expect him to be great, but injured Sox players have zero expectations. It appears Judge won't need elbow surgery, but Rodon & Volpe are expected to start the season on the IL. They are also losing some key players to free agency: Bellinger, Grisham, Goldy, De Williams, Luke Weaver & Slater. They have made zero new FA additions. With no more additions, I do not see them as better, right now.

BAL has added Alonso & Helsley as FAs. They traded for Baz, but have made a questionable trade (GRod to T Ward) and started out so far behind other ALE teams, the have a ways to go. They lost Sugano, Eflin. Mateo & G Sanchez to free agency.

The Rays have not improved. They are rebuilding.

Of course the Jays and Yanks seem more likely to make a big splash FA signing than the Sox, but the Sox might have one blockbuster trade to make and or a possible significant FA signing, which would be their first of the winter.

The Sox still have their 3 top prospects (Yolle, Early & Arias) and traded their #4 Perales for their #6 Bennett, recently. They also have kept their...

5. Witherspoon

7. Valera

9. Gonzales

11. Soto, 12 Sandlin, 13 Phillips, 14 Eyanson, 15 Godbout, 16 Romero, 17-19 Uberstine, Drohan & Holobetz, as well and most from 21 on down.

The Sox have 4 FT OF'er with K Campbell & Masa in reserve. The Sox have cut down on their SP'er depth by trading away some 5/6 type starters (Dobbins, Peralez, Fitts and the far away Fajardo & Travieso,) but they added Gray, Oviedo and Bennett by trade, too. I'm not sure we are currently deep enough to trade a good SP'er away, but for the right piece, we could and maybe should. Here is what I think is our current rotation rankings:

1. Crochet

3. Gray & Bello

4/5. Oviedo, Sandoval, Crawford

5/6. Harrison, Early, Tolle (all with upside)

That's 9. Last year, we started with 11 and needed to trade for DMay and add Tolle & Early to the 40, prematurely. We also used a few "openers" and De Leon.

More depth but not really much trade value...

AAA: Drohan, Uberstine, Sandlin, Gamboa, Mullins & AA Bennett, Holobetz & E Rivera

I think we slightly improved our top 5 SP'ers. I wanted more, but so it is. Maybe we add more.

I think we greatly improved our 1B situation and by adding Casas to the DH mix, helped that slot out, too. Of course, we started 2025 with Devers at DH and a hopeful Casas at 1B, so how much we gained from those expectations at 1B/DH in March, 2026 is not so good. Still Contreras beats out Toro & N Lowe.

We need to replace and maybe upgrade Bregman's slot. Bregman or Bichette would keep that slot near equal. K Marte would boost it. Paredes would be nice, Donovan or Suarez might be okay, and Vientos a step down, IMO. I'm sure there are other options out there.

Let's see what Brez has up his sleeve.

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think you’re spot on. He’ll extend the young guys cause it’s cheaper, but only offering Alonso 3 years for someone I believe they wanted is a tell, and goes along with what McDams reported that an agent old him. I still think years is the sticking point on Bregman. If Donavan comes next that will even be a Bigger tell.

This is why I worried more about losing out on Polanco and H-S Kim than Alonso. I'm not sure how many more meaningful 1-2 year deals are out there.

Of course, I hated missing out on Alonso more, but knowing about the no 5 year plus priority, explains why we wont get anyone for that long, unless they are wowed by the talent or lower price. This is why I actually think KMarte should be, but probably is not, still on our radar. His AAV is not high. Hell, he's owed $89M/5, which is less than we paid Pablito! $45M is deferred, so the AAV is reportedly under $15M a year! I'd pay him $89M/4, so why should the 5th year scare us away? He's likely worth $90M/3 and would get that as a FA, right now. On long deals like his, we need to look at all the context. If his AAV is under $15M, including Duran or Rafaela in the deal would knock the AAV cost to below $8 or 9M a year!

I know I am 99% sure to be wrong, but I'd trade Duran or Rafaela, Crawford & Phillips for K Marte, then sign Bassitt for 1 year. We'd still have 9 decent to great SP'ers, a big switch-hitting power bat, our 2B issue finally solved after a decade of clown circus play there. We'd still have 3 solid OF'ers with a KC-Masa platoon in LF as our OF depth. We'd have Masa/Casas and Romy at DH. Contreras/Romy at 1B. KMarte/Romy at 2B. Story/Mayer at SS. Mayer/Romy/Eaton at 3B, and Narvaez/Wong as our catchers. Our pen could be boosted by adding Harrison or one of our minor league SP'ers to the MLB pen (maybe Sandlin or Drohan.)

To me, this would be a better team than April 2025 or August 2025's team (before Anthony got hurt.)

[Hugh2]

All I want for Christmas is a third baseman

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

All I want for Christmas is a third baseman

I'd take KMarte at 2B and Mayer/Romy at 3B, too!

[Old Red]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

All I want for Christmas is a third baseman

The Red SOX are waiting for an after Christmas sale. I’m not to confident BorASS will give them one though.

[Hugh2]

I’d like to critique my statement to all I want for Christmas is a 3B or a 2bman underneath the Christmas tree.

im not greedy; any non 1b infielder will do.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red SOX are waiting for an after Christmas sale. I’m not to confident BorASS will give them one though.

And we are waiting for a Christmas miracle 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red SOX are waiting for an after Christmas sale. I’m not to confident BorASS will give them one though.

It's about what other Gms offer and not so much BorA$$.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

And we are waiting for a Christmas miracle 

It does feel like it would be a miracle to see a bold addition.

[Larry Cook]

48 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red SOX are waiting for an after Christmas sale. I’m not to confident BorASS will give them one though.

I think we have a tentative deal with Bregman, but waiting to see if the cubs step up or not 

[moonslav59]

I think the Cubs or Jays get Bregman.

The Jays may prefer Breggie to the longer term Bichette deal.

The Cubs may make a stronger bid for Tucker over Bregman.

There may be a team like the NYM or PHI, or even DET that makes a final big offer to Bregman.

I do not think JH will approve 4-5 years, when he wouldn't last winter. Breggie is gone, IMO.

Bichette is at an age where the Sox are known to sign long term deals (extensions,) but I do not think he has the power we need.

I think we trade for Donovan or Vientos. I'd prefer KMarte or Paredes.

[Larry Cook]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the Cubs or Jays get Bregman.

The Jays may prefer Breggie to the longer term Bichette deal.

The Cubs may make a stronger bid for Tucker over Bregman.

There may be a team like the NYM or PHI, or even DET that makes a final big offer to Bregman.

I do not think JH will approve 4-5 years, when he wouldn't last winter. Breggie is gone, IMO.

Bichette is at an age where the Sox are known to sign long term deals (extensions,) but I do not think he has the power we need.

I think we trade for Donovan or Vientos. I'd prefer KMarte or Paredes.

The New York radio guys seem to think we are super close to signing Bregman to a long term deal! When they said we were signing bregman (a couple of weeks prior to the signing) last year, I did not believe it. 

[moonslav59]

Rafaela (36 on BTV) & Hicks (-18) plus $10M cash

for

Paredes 3B/1B/2B (12) Brice Matthews (RHB 2B, 13) Sousa (LH RP, 5)