A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

It's rather stunning the amount of trades Brez has made this winter. He made that real big one, last winter and few others along the way and before, but this whole roster and system is fast becoming almost half his in just 2 years.

Chapman is 18th in seniority on the 40.

Brez's prospects rank: 1 Tolle, 4 Witherspoon, 6 Bennett, 7 Gonzales, 8 Soto, 9. Sandlin, 10. Phillips. 11 Eyanson, 12 Godbout, 16. Holobetz, 20. Azocar, 21. Watson, 23. Delzine, 24. Ramos, 25. Rivas, 29. Samanieg0, 30 Cason. 31. Guzman, 32. Heyman, 33 Primera, 35. TYgart, 36. YRod, 37 White, 38. McShane, 40 Rivera.

That's 7 of the top 10.

11 of top 20

18 of top 30

26 of top 40

10 to 12 of the 26 could be his additions.

 

[JoeBrady]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

but Vientos and Tong are very suspect, going forward.

Sure, they are no sure things, but that's how you get players like that.  Vientos had a 134 OPS+ in 2024, higher than Alonso.  Tong was ranked #75, and had 162 Ks in 102 IPs in AA before getting promoted to AAA and then the pros.  IMO, that would be a pure theft, lack of certainty not withstanding.

[moonslav59]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Sure, they are no sure things, but that's how you get players like that.  Vientos had a 134 OPS+ in 2024, higher than Alonso.  Tong was ranked #75, and had 162 Ks in 102 IPs in AA before getting promoted to AAA and then the pros.  IMO, that would be a pure theft, lack of certainty not withstanding.

You might be right, but it seems like more a move for the future and not 2026.

This does not seem like the moment to go that road.

[Larry Cook]

Anybody seeing any beat writers sending messages about us resigning Bregman?? 
 

I think bres-slow has a increased the years on his offer 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You might be right, but it seems like more a move for the future and not 2026.

This does not seem like the moment to go that road.

I have no idea why people are obsessed with 2026.  If I can get 2% better for 2027-2031, at the expense of being 2% worse in 2026, I'll make that trade every time.

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That certainly seems like the overwhelming possibility on both the Casas and Masa fronts (and Hicks being on the 26 for opening day, too.)

We don't have much depth at 1B. If we trade an OF'er the DH depth is one less deep. That is what I see happening.

best to hang on to Casas in case someone knocks our socks off with a trade offer. Coneras is only here for 2 years.

[Randy Red Sox]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I have no idea why people are obsessed with 2026.  If I can get 2% better for 2027-2031, at the expense of being 2% worse in 2026, I'll make that trade every time.

you make it sound like we are a small market team. What about JH saying on more than one occasion that he wanted a team that could compete for a WS EVERY YEAR??

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's rather stunning the amount of trades Brez has made this winter. He made that real big one, last winter and few others along the way and before, but this whole roster and system is fast becoming almost half his in just 2 years.

Chapman is 18th in seniority on the 40.

Brez's prospects rank: 1 Tolle, 4 Witherspoon, 6 Bennett, 7 Gonzales, 8 Soto, 9. Sandlin, 10. Phillips. 11 Eyanson, 12 Godbout, 16. Holobetz, 20. Azocar, 21. Watson, 23. Delzine, 24. Ramos, 25. Rivas, 29. Samanieg0, 30 Cason. 31. Guzman, 32. Heyman, 33 Primera, 35. TYgart, 36. YRod, 37 White, 38. McShane, 40 Rivera.

That's 7 of the top 10.

11 of top 20

18 of top 30

26 of top 40

10 to 12 of the 26 could be his additions.

 

Early didn't make this list?

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Early didn't make this list?

He was drafted by Bloom, right?

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

best to hang on to Casas in case someone knocks our socks off with a trade offer. Coneras is only here for 2 years.

So is Yoshida.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I have no idea why people are obsessed with 2026.  If I can get 2% better for 2027-2031, at the expense of being 2% worse in 2026, I'll make that trade every time.

I'm not obsessed with 26. I'm not for trading for 1 year guys.

Trade for Marte and a 5 year window!

[moonslav59]

As much as Brez has traded players & prospects away, he has also added a lot of good players and a few prospects, too.

Our farm will drop in the rankings, but much of that is due to graduations and attrition.

We still have a very young team and plenty of promising prospects.

26 Key players by age (team control) and only 1 (Whitlock) has 1 year left. Gray, Chapman, Contreras, Oviedo  & Yoshida have just 2 years left.

21 Anthony (8-9)

22 Tolle (5+) & Mayer (5+)

23 Early (5+) & Campbell (7-9) 

24 Rafaela (5) & Harrison (5)

25 Casas (3)

26 Crochet (6), Bello (4-5), Abreu (4) & Narvaez (5)

27 Slaten (4) & Oviedo (2)

28 Duran (3) & Romy (3)

29 Whitlock (1), Crawford (3) Sandoval (1) & Houck (2)

30 Weissert (4)

31 Yoshida (2)

32 Story (2-3)

33 Contreras (2)

36 Gray (1-2)

37 Chapman (1-2)

7 Role Players

27 DHam (4) & Sogard (5)

28 Moran (5), Eaton (5) & Hicks (2)

29 Wong (3)

30 Kelly (4)

That's a pretty solid core of 26 + 7 players.

Then...

7 more on 40: Tristan Gray, T Uberstine, S Drohan, T Samaniego, R Watson, J Bennett & Sandlin

Prospects not on the 40:

2. Arias 20

4. Witherspoon 21

5. Valera 19

7. Gonzales 19

8. Soto 17

10. Phillips 21, 11. Eyanson 21, 16. Holobetz 23,  17. Mullins 26, 23. Delzine 17

12. Godbout 22, 13. Romero 21, 20. Azocar 18, 24. Ramos 18, 25. Rivas 17 & Jo Garcia 21

We have the pieces for a 5 year window.

 

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I have no idea why people are obsessed with 2026.  If I can get 2% better for 2027-2031, at the expense of being 2% worse in 2026, I'll make that trade every time.

OMG! 2026 is the here, and now, and you don’t give up a year for anything, because you’ll never get it back. 2027 isn’t guaranteed for anything, and I’m not even going to think about 2027 until next offseason. If you’re not going to play to win then don’t play at all, and I’ll say that every time.🙈

[Old Red]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not obsessed with 26. I'm not for trading for 1 year guys.

Trade for Marte and a 5 year window!

I don’t really think the RED Sox really want to trade for someone with 5 yrs left on their contract that will take them to 36-37 yrs anymore than they want to sign a FA under the same circumstances, and I think that’s what’s holding up any Bregman signing. McAdams already reported an agent told him the RED SOX didn’t want to sign any long term FA contracts.

[Hugh2]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I have no idea why people are obsessed with 2026.  If I can get 2% better for 2027-2031, at the expense of being 2% worse in 2026, I'll make that trade every time.

That 2% spread over 4 years has a cumulative effect. 

If the Sox acted like that 5 years ago the 2026 roster would be 10-15% better today. 

That could be the difference between a 84-86 win team vs. an 90-92 win team. 

 

This problem becomes much more solvable if John Henry would just open up his wallet every once in a blue moon.  It would be the easiest thing to just go out sign Bichette, get his prime years and be done with it. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That 2% spread over 4 years has a cumulative effect. 

If the Sox acted like that 5 years ago the 2026 roster would be 10-15% better today. 

That could be the difference between a 84-86 win team vs. an 90-92 win team. 

 

This problem becomes much more solvable if John Henry would just open up his wallet every once in a blue moon.  It would be the easiest thing to just go out sign Bichette, get his prime years and be done with it. 

I’ve been saying for the past few years that you don’t have to wait until you go so called all in to improve the club, because you are not guaranteed something better will come along that you are willing to afford.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

best to hang on to Casas in case someone knocks our socks off with a trade offer. Coneras is only here for 2 years.

With his option years, it makes little sense to deal him at his lowest value. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With his option years, it makes little sense to deal him at his lowest value. 

I think this pretty much gurantees Casas starts the year in WOO. 

There was speculation about him being ready by opening day and even if he was ready with all the time he's missed some time in WOO was warranted. 

That time is going to end up gifting the Red Sox an extra year of team control for Casas.  If he spends 1/2 or most the year down in WOO and ends up figuiring it out eventually, it will have paid for itself to start him there. 

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think this pretty much gurantees Casas starts the year in WOO. 

There was speculation about him being ready by opening day and even if he was ready with all the time he's missed some time in WOO was warranted. 

That time is going to end up gifting the Red Sox an extra year of team control for Casas.  If he spends 1/2 or most the year down in WOO and ends up figuiring it out eventually, it will have paid for itself to start him there. 

Cora had a quote that kinda threw water about him being ready anytime soon, so I think we'll just plan on seeing him when we see him. 

[notin]

10 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you make it sound like we are a small market team. What about JH saying on more than one occasion that he wanted a team that could compete for a WS EVERY YEAR??

 That doesn’t mean you focus on 2026 alone.  Part of being competitive every year does involve taking 2027, 2028, etc. into account.  The Sox plan on fielding teams those years, too.

If the Sox focus solely on 2026, what happens if a key injury derails the season?

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

 That doesn’t mean you focus on 2026 alone.  Part of being competitive every year does involve taking 2027, 2028, etc. into account.  The Sox plan on fielding teams those years, too.

If the Sox focus solely on 2026, what happens if a key injury derails the season?

At what point are they going to focus on a WS team? 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At what point are they going to focus on a WS team? 

Not until July 31st, when everyone in the running does…

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Not until July 31st, when everyone in the running does…

July 31 is for final pieces in the puzzle.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I don’t really think the RED Sox really want to trade for someone with 5 yrs left on their contract that will take them to 36-37 yrs anymore than they want to sign a FA under the same circumstances, and I think that’s what’s holding up any Bregman signing. McAdams already reported an agent told him the RED SOX didn’t want to sign any long term FA contracts.

I don't think they want to either, but I still post what I think they should do.

I think you sometimes feel we are posting what we think will happen and not what we think should happen. We all voice our opinions on what we think.

So, what do I think will happen? I have said that, too. I think we seek a FA player who might accept a 1-2 year deal- maybe a 2 year deal with a team option for year 3 but with a significant buyout. To me, that might be E Suarez or Okamoto. I could also see us maybe signing Bassitt to a 1 year deal, which might allow us to trade one more SPer coupled with an OF'er for a 2B/3Bman- not like K Marte. More likely a straight trade like Crawford for Paredes or Rafaela for Paredes and one of HOU's LH'd RP'ers.

It's a guessing game that some of enjoy playing.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

With his option years, it makes little sense to deal him at his lowest value. 

BINGO! And with our recent, god-awful history on the lack of 1B depth, stashing Casas in AAA until he shows something is the clear answer. If he doesn't return to form, there's a clear answer for that, too, but give they guy some time.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At what point are they going to focus on a WS team? 

We can focus on trying to win a WS in 2026 without writing off 2027, 2028 and beyond. You do that by not trading away a bunch of the future for one year players and minimizing 2 year players.

Did trading for Crochet ruin our future chances? To some degree, it might have, had we not extended him, but he was not a one and done addition.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

July 31 is for final pieces in the puzzle.

The final pieces for this team could be the top quarter of the puzzle. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BINGO! And with our recent, god-awful history on the lack of 1B depth, stashing Casas in AAA until he shows something is the clear answer. If he doesn't return to form, there's a clear answer for that, too, but give they guy some time.

They can option him until Masa's contract runs out. If he's really raking like 2023 and has no after effects of the injury, DFA Masa and bring Casas up. Easiest call in the world. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The final pieces for this team could be the top quarter of the puzzle. 

It’s still 2025.  Many, many deals happen in January.

Not sure why so many fans have this mentality that if your starting lineup isn’t etched in stone before Thanksgiving, you’re not trying.  
 

This team did address major needs with Gray and Contreras replacing Toro and Buehler/Dobbins.  Those are definite upgrades.  With over 3 months to opening day, there is plenty of time.  With 7 of the MLBTR top 10 free agents still unsigned, the the argument that the rest of MLB is miles ahead is just laughable…

[Old Red]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think they want to either, but I still post what I think they should do.

I think you sometimes feel we are posting what we think will happen and not what we think should happen. We all voice our opinions on what we think.

So, what do I think will happen? I have said that, too. I think we seek a FA player who might accept a 1-2 year deal- maybe a 2 year deal with a team option for year 3 but with a significant buyout. To me, that might be E Suarez or Okamoto. I could also see us maybe signing Bassitt to a 1 year deal, which might allow us to trade one more SPer coupled with an OF'er for a 2B/3Bman- not like K Marte. More likely a straight trade like Crawford for Paredes or Rafaela for Paredes and one of HOU's LH'd RP'ers.

It's a guessing game that some of enjoy playing.

It doesn’t matter if you predict, suggest, or anything else you want to call it, because as I’ve said before I’m most likely going to respond the same way, which is what I think the Red Sox will ACTUALLY do. That’s a guessing game also, but likely a lot more accurate, and realistic.