A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, harmony said:

Kansas City fans tend to overvalue Cole Ragans (just as Boston fans tend to overvalue Jarren Duran).

Duran is clearly no Jared Kelenic! 😇

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some 2B Trade options (age on opening day):

Donovan STL ~$5.8M last arb (29 yrs old) LHB 118 OPS+ (116/ 3 yrs w 16 HRs per 162)

B Lowe TBR $11.5M/1 remaining (31.5 yrs old) LHB 116 OPS+ (116/3 yrs w 34 HRs per 162)

K Marte AZ $91M/5 remaining (32 yrs old) SHB 145 OPS+ (141/ 3 yrs w 35 HRs per 162)

Lowe is LH and can't play a lick of defense. 

Marte is great, but would lose a significant amount of HR's at Fenway. Long contract and would take a big trade package.

Donovan is a platoon bat. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Steamer projects Cole Ragans with a 2026 WAR of 4.2 in 172 innings over 29 starts and Jarren Duran with a 2026 WAR of 2.5 in 605 plate appearances over 133 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764733448&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764733448&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Upcoming projections from other sources may flip those numbers because Ragans and Duran are difficult to project.

They were also low on Duran in '25. 🙃

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I would be, but it also depends on the length of the deal.  No one worried about Pujols, and he had only one good year with the Angels.  No one worried about Trout.  No one worries about anyone 31-32, until they stop.  And all of them stop.

All?

Not all by age 35 or 36, but yes most do.

fangraphs has this for 33+ year olds.

All ages ranking (277 players 300+ PAs)

1. 1.144 Judge

4. .959 Springer

(Schwarber is 7th and K Marte 11th))

16. .869 Freeman

27th .848 Y Diaz

30th .846 Muncy

42nd .824 E Suarez

6 from .755 to .800 (61st to 107th) Better than the mean

10 from .700 to .750 (108th to 181st (about the average)

5 from .680-.700 (182-207th is the top of the bottom 3rd in MLB)

5 below .670 (5 of the worst 54 players in MLB)

[harmony]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is clearly no Jared Kelenic! 😇

Jarred Kelenic's greatest contribution to the Seattle Mariners was being attached to the underwater contracts of Marco Gonzales and Evan White in a trade to Atlanta. 

The Braves have since dropped Kelenic while the Mariners still tenuously roster pitchers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips, the return in the Kelenic trade.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Lowe is LH and can't play a lick of defense. 

Marte is great, but would lose a significant amount of HR's at Fenway. Long contract and would take a big trade package.

Donovan is a platoon bat. 

Lowe I agree… 

Marte contract is freaking great, when you compare it to what’s out there on open market in free agency. And again if you believe the window is open we are looking in the next 24-36 months WAR is great. The homerun thing I’m not sure about. I know he rakes LHP. Which helps vs Yankees, not so much vs BlueJays. Also hits more HR’s from right side… Doesn’t that play in Fenway? 
 

Donovan IMO is much more than platoon bat. And gives us real defensive versatility. I’d love him if accompanied by 2 high end bats. Not as the second guy. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Lowe I agree… 

Marte contract is freaking great, when you compare it to what’s out there on open market in free agency. And again if you believe the window is open we are looking in the next 24-36 months WAR is great. The homerun thing I’m not sure about. I know he rakes LHP. Which helps vs Yankees, not so much vs BlueJays. Also hits more HR’s from right side… Doesn’t that play in Fenway? 
 

Donovan IMO is much more than platoon bat. And gives us real defensive versatility. I’d love him if accompanied by 2 high end bats. Not as the second guy. 

I actually agree that Donovan's glove and all-around game and age may be a better fit than Marte for what this Red Sox team really needs to improve now and longterm...

... and to get Bloom to part with Donovan, we'd have to take the contract of Contreras, who would fill the big righty power bat in the heart of the order.

Now, what other pitching prospects can we package together for St. Louie?

[moonslav59]

I'd rather JH just pay to sign a couple bats, but I'm extremely doubtful he even allows one large and long deal, this winter, despite getting out from Devers' 8 years remaining.

KMarte makes sense, moneywise, positionally, as a power solution and being a switch hitter. He checks too many boxes to let his age be the reason to say no. I do worry about age-related decline, but that's true for Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman and others, too.

Ideally, we sign Alosno & Bregman and trade Campbell, Harrison & Perales for Ryan.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Lowe I agree… 

Marte contract is freaking great, when you compare it to what’s out there on open market in free agency. And again if you believe the window is open we are looking in the next 24-36 months WAR is great. The homerun thing I’m not sure about. I know he rakes LHP. Which helps vs Yankees, not so much vs BlueJays. Also hits more HR’s from right side… Doesn’t that play in Fenway? 
 

Donovan IMO is much more than platoon bat. And gives us real defensive versatility. I’d love him if accompanied by 2 high end bats. Not as the second guy. 

Donovan splits '25

LHP 615 OPS

RHP 853 OPS

Marte splits '25

LHP 891, 9 HR

RHP 896, 19 HR (where he'd see the decrease at Fenway)

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Not all by age 35 or 36, but yes most do.

From 2015-2025, ten full years, only 4 players have averaged 2.5 fWAR/year.

[harmony]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

From 2015-2025, ten full years, only 4 players have averaged 2.5 fWAR/year.

Not necessarily related, but over the past four seasons Seattle's Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh have combined for 44.2 fWAR, an average of 5.5 fWAR per season per player:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=11&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2025

The Mariners have signed long-term extensions with Rodriguez, who turns 25 this month, and Raleigh, who turned 29 last month.

One might contend that the Seattle Mariners are top-heavy in position players.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I actually agree that Donovan's glove and all-around game and age may be a better fit than Marte for what this Red Sox team really needs to improve now and longterm...

... and to get Bloom to part with Donovan, we'd have to take the contract of Contreras, who would fill the big righty power bat in the heart of the order.

Now, what other pitching prospects can we package together for St. Louie?

I would not give Early or Tolle for those two. Contreras is expensive, but his contract is not really underwater. He turns 33, in a few months. His OPS+ has been 123>138>123. He's a RHB who has averaged 26 HRs per 162 in the last 3 years. He has decent splits.

Would STL take Harrison, Perales, DHam/Romero and Sandlin/Mullins? Maybe they'd want Casas.

[JoeBrady]

23 minutes ago, harmony said:

over the past four seasons Seattle's Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh have combined for 44.2 fWAR, an average of 5.5 fWAR per season per player:

And if they were RS players, everyone would've been screaming for them to be traded, before they ever hit the pros.  Something, something prospects=suspects, something, something.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Steamer projects Cole Ragans with a 2026 WAR of 4.2 in 172 innings over 29 starts and Jarren Duran with a 2026 WAR of 2.5 in 605 plate appearances over 133 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764733448&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764733448&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Upcoming projections from other sources may flip those numbers because Ragans and Duran are difficult to project.

I agree that Ragans and Duran are hard to project and value is more than just production too, which only adds another complication.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Ideally, we sign Alonso & Bregman and trade Campbell, Harrison & Perales for Ryan.

Amen this is it………This is the clear answer, we keep trying to put the round peg in the square hole. Hopefully Breslow and JH are coming to same conclusion right now…….

Even if you have to over pay for those 2 bats, keeps the momentum, and leadership (AB2), also addresses needs in SP and power… 

I’m ok even adding Witherspoon or 1 of the big 2 young arms to make it happen for Ryan, Alcantara, or Ragans. 
 

 

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not give Early or Tolle for those two. Contreras is expensive, but his contract is not really underwater. He turns 33, in a few months. His OPS+ has been 123>138>123. He's a RHB who has averaged 26 HRs per 162 in the last 3 years. He has decent splits.

Would STL take Harrison, Perales, DHam/Romero and Sandlin/Mullins? Maybe they'd want Casas.

I don't get the attraction of Donovan.  He's a platoon player for the most part.  Over the past two years, he has a 116 OPS+ while Romy has a 118+.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Amen this is it………This is the clear answer, we keep trying to put the round peg in the square hole. Hopefully Breslow and JH are coming to same conclusion right now…….

Even if you have to over pay for those 2 bats, keeps the momentum, and leadership (AB2), also addresses needs in SP and power… 

I’m ok even adding Witherspoon or 1 of the big 2 young arms to make it happen for Ryan, Alcantara, or Ragans. 
 

 

I would include Witherspoon and or Phillips, instead of Harrison or Perales, in MN insisted. I might even give them Valera or Fajardo, and I am super high on both.

This window is worth some sacrifices.

Without JH spending big money, I might not see a trade like this as being worth it, though. We'll be worse in 2026 with just Gray and Ryan and no help for the offense.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't get the attraction of Donovan.  He's a platoon player for the most part.  Over the past two years, he has a 116 OPS+ while Romy has a 118+.

That's what I said! 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's what I said! 

True...

Donovan is .634 vs LHPs since 2023 (.824 v R)

Romy is .651 v R (.931 v L)

The problem is RHPs are about 70% of the league.

Donovan's real comp is LHB DHam at .490 v L and .667 v R, so he'd be a big upgrade there, but we need RH'd power bats and not a better DHam.

[Behindenemylines]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is clearly no Jared Kelenic! 😇

Duran had a 3.9 WAR last season, granted down from 2024, but still almost at all star level. Yes, clearly not Jared Kelenic, but Sox need to make sure they get fair value back in a trade. If it was me I would not trade Duran unless that #2 starter is the return.

[Duran Is The Man]

8 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Duran had a 3.9 WAR last season, granted down from 2024, but still almost at all star level. Yes, clearly not Jared Kelenic, but Sox need to make sure they get fair value back in a trade. If it was me I would not trade Duran unless that #2 starter is the return.

Kyle Tucker is going to sign for a jillion dollars in the next couple of months, because he is the big prize in the FA market, yet his bWAR last year was less than Duran's. the same Duran that some people think is worth little to nothing. in fact, his bWAR ranks 29th and ahead of superstars like Machado, Vladdy, and Ketel Marte.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Kyle Tucker is going to sign for a jillion dollars in the next couple of months, because he is the big prize in the FA market, yet his bWAR last year was less than Duran's. the same Duran that some people think is worth little to nothing. in fact, his bWAR ranks 29th and ahead of superstars like Machado, Vladdy, and Ketel Marte.

Tucker did beat JD in fWAR 4.5 to 3.9, but your point is a good one.

Tucker is better on D, but JD's baserunning adds a special dimension. I think the pre-injury Tucker is the eye opener:

bWAR 5.3>5.5>5.5 (21-23) then 4.7 in just 78 games in '24 (179 OPS+!!!) He turns 29 in January. Hid fWAR was 4.9 each year from '21 to '23 then 4.2 in less than a half season in '24. 

[moonslav59]

The Sox must really like Oviedo's upside. To me, the deal looked a bit lop-sided before we added Travieso. Sameniego might be someone they like, too, as we kinda shorted ourselves of LH'd RP'ers, this fall.

Criswell was DFA'd and likely will be traded for a non 40 man roster prospect.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox must really like Oviedo's upside. To me, the deal looked a bit lop-sided before we added Travieso. Sameniego might be someone they like, too, as we kinda shorted ourselves of LH'd RP'ers, this fall.

Criswell was DFA'd and likely will be traded for a non 40 man roster prospect.

Just another in a long list of coming off an injury. Hopefully he’s at least done rehabbing as he did make some starts last year. MEH.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Just another in a long list of coming off an injury. Hopefully he’s at least done rehabbing as he did make some starts last year. MEH.

It is a certainty that we will not start the 2026 season with 14 SP'ers on the 40. Even if we plan to convert a couple to the pen, even if just temporarily, our roster would be dangerously unbalanced.

Something is in the works. Teams need pitching and are overpaying for it. We need a big bat and can put together a wide variety of packages to suit almost anything a team is looking for: top prospects, ML ready pitchers and a dynamic OF'er. The only thing we can't spare is a FT infielder.

I gotta think the budget will be tight enough that at least one major trade will be made to add a bat (or two.) Hopefully, we will also sign another one, but we'll see.

Here's how I see our SP'ers, and I know how much you love numbering them... (lol)

#1 Crochet (top 5)

#3 Gray & Bello (both closer to #2s than #4s)

#4-5 Sandoval (if healthy)

#5 Crawford & Harrison

#5-6 Oviedo & Dobbins

Unknowns: Tolle, Early, & Perales 

AAAA: Sandlin, Uberstine & Drohan

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Just another in a long list of coming off an injury. Hopefully he’s at least done rehabbing as he did make some starts last year. MEH.

The Sox certainly do seem to be doubling down on the guys coming off TJ. 

The following is a little bit of hyperbole on my part, but maybe the Sox think since almost everyone is getting TJ at some point nowadays maybe signing all the guys coming off of it will lead to the maximum amount of time inbtween their next surgery

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is a certainty that we will not start the 2026 season with 14 SP'ers on the 40. Even if we plan to convert a couple to the pen, even if just temporarily, our roster would be dangerously unbalanced.

Something is in the works. Teams need pitching and are overpaying for it. We need a big bat and can put together a wide variety of packages to suit almost anything a team is looking for: top prospects, ML ready pitchers and a dynamic OF'er. The only thing we can't spare is a FT infielder.

I gotta think the budget will be tight enough that at least one major trade will be made to add a bat (or two.) Hopefully, we will also sign another one, but we'll see.

Here's how I see our SP'ers, and I know how much you love numbering them... (lol)

#1 Crochet (top 5)

#3 Gray & Bello (both closer to #2s than #4s)

#4-5 Sandoval (if healthy)

#5 Crawford & Harrison

#5-6 Oviedo & Dobbins

Unknowns: Tolle, Early, & Perales 

AAAA: Sandlin, Uberstine & Drohan

I think the Rotation right now might be. 

Crochet/Gray/Bello/Sandoval/Oviedo.  Tolle/Early/Crawford/Harrison are in AAA with the odds of one of those guys being traded pretty high. 

Perales and Tolle certainly start the year in AAA as they're not done cooking.  But I can see both in Boston at some point in 2025.  Perales might go the Tolle route, find his way into Bostons bullpen with an eye towards starting in 2027. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is a certainty that we will not start the 2026 season with 14 SP'ers on the 40. Even if we plan to convert a couple to the pen, even if just temporarily, our roster would be dangerously unbalanced.

Something is in the works. Teams need pitching and are overpaying for it. We need a big bat and can put together a wide variety of packages to suit almost anything a team is looking for: top prospects, ML ready pitchers and a dynamic OF'er. The only thing we can't spare is a FT infielder.

I gotta think the budget will be tight enough that at least one major trade will be made to add a bat (or two.) Hopefully, we will also sign another one, but we'll see.

Here's how I see our SP'ers, and I know how much you love numbering them... (lol)

#1 Crochet (top 5)

#3 Gray & Bello (both closer to #2s than #4s)

#4-5 Sandoval (if healthy)

#5 Crawford & Harrison

#5-6 Oviedo & Dobbins

Unknowns: Tolle, Early, & Perales 

AAAA: Sandlin, Uberstine & Drohan

What a great problem to have so many starting pitchers you don’t know what to do with them all, but as we’ve seen the last few years with all the bad injury Ju Ju you may have a need for them all when it’s all said and done.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I think the Rotation right now might be. 

Crochet/Gray/Bello/Sandoval/Oviedo.  Tolle/Early/Crawford/Harrison are in AAA with the odds of one of those guys being traded pretty high. 

Perales and Tolle certainly start the year in AAA as they're not done cooking.  But I can see both in Boston at some point in 2025.  Perales might go the Tolle route, find his way into Bostons bullpen with an eye towards starting in 2027. 

I don’t think the great Sandoval that gets so much ink on here is locked in to anything at all.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I think the Rotation right now might be. 

Crochet/Gray/Bello/Sandoval/Oviedo.  Tolle/Early/Crawford/Harrison are in AAA with the odds of one of those guys being traded pretty high. 

Perales and Tolle certainly start the year in AAA as they're not done cooking.  But I can see both in Boston at some point in 2025.  Perales might go the Tolle route, find his way into Bostons bullpen with an eye towards starting in 2027. 

Was Dobbins the 2025 version of Criswell?

I think we might see Crawford in the pen, if he's not traded. To me, he seems the most likely to be moved. They might have seen something in Harrison that they want played out, but maybe they realized he is not "fixable" as he never really got a shot in 2025 with us, despite the label "ML ready." We handed the ball to Tolle & Early, and even gave Criswell a start over Harrison. Maybe he's the one we trade. 

If I were a betting man, I might take the over on 1,5 SP'ers being traded before opening day.