A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

27 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

adding up the wins/losses they project gives us:

Boston 91-91

Toronto 91-90

NYY 86-79

Seattle 78-73

 

ok.

 

 

So we finish 1/2 game behind Toronto? 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have 6 SP'er at 0.9 or more, 6 over 1.1 and 3 over 1.7.

The Yanks have 6 over 0.9, 5 over 1.1 and 4 over 1.7.

TOR has 5 over 0.0, 5 over 1.1 and 4 over 1.7

Kinda what I expected: we are heavy on quantity not quality.

Injuries are always the great equalizer. 2025 injuries really gave us fits come the post season. 
 

the development of all the young pitchers is going to really help some team separate 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Kinda what I expected: we are heavy on quantity not quality.

According to the numbers, we have the best #1 (5.6), we have the best 1-2 (9.5), the best 1-3 (11.5), and the best 1-4 (13.2).

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

According to the numbers, we have the best #1 (5.6), we have the best 1-2 (9.5), the best 1-3 (11.5), and the best 1-4 (13.2).

How do we rank #2-5?

[Larry Cook]

Seems like we have disposed of a bunch of pitchers so far this offseason! 
I cannot remember an offseason with so many pitchers leaving so early 

[harmony]

The current 2026 Steamer projections for Red Sox position players:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1764474193&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

What, if any, changes need to be made this offseason?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Seems like we have disposed of a bunch of pitchers so far this offseason! 
I cannot remember an offseason with so many pitchers leaving so early 

Our 40 was unbalanced, and the top 20-30 prospects are unbalanced, too. Still is.

We did add Sandlin, Uberstine and Drohan to replace 3 pitchers leaving. Guerrero for Gray was a sort of balancing of the minors. (Bernardino, Murphy, Wink.)

We are losing Gio, Buehler, Wilson, Matz and May.

We added Gray and lost Clarke & Fitts.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How do we rank #2-5?

#1.  We rank ahead of NYY and TO all the way thru, basically because Crochet is easily #1, and our #2, he who shall not be named, is a good bit better than their #2's.

There is also a bit of a weighing discrepancy.  They have our #5 being Crawford, but with a 4.43.  They have Early with a 3.83, but with 60 less IPs.  Intuitively, that would make Early our #5.  If they gave Early the 123 IPs that they credit Crawford with, then Early becomes the top #5.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

The current 2026 Steamer projections for Red Sox position players:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1764474193&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

What, if any, changes need to be made this offseason?

Some of those numbers are so badly constructed, it is impossible to use them for a discussion.  Anthony had 8 DRS in only 290 IPs and they tagged him with a -8.7 defensively, simultaneously making him one of the best and one of the worst fielders in BB.  Abreu is an elite glove as well with no discussion necessary, but they have him tagged as -4.2.

Overall, the RS was easily the best DRS last year with +52, while TX (#2) was +36.  But Abreu, Duran, Ceddanne and Anthony combine for a -9.6 according to Steamer.  I'm pretty sure that's virtually impossible.

[moonslav59]

In 2025, the Sox had 10 SP'ers with an fWAR at +0.1 or better.

We had 7 over 0.3 and 5 at 1.0 or more:

5.8 Crochet

2.0 Bello

2.0 Giolito (FA)

1.1 Early

1.0 Dobbins

(In 2024 Crawford was at 1.8 and Criswell 1.1)

The Yanks had 5 SP'er over 1.3 and have Cole returning:

4.8 Fried, 3.2 Rodon, 2.1 Warren, 1.3 Schlitter & Schmidt (Gil 0.6 in 57 IP)

The Jays had 3 and Bassitt is a FA:

4.1 Gausman, 2.4 Bassitt, 1.4 Berrios (0.8 Lauer in 74 IP & Yesavage 0.4 in 14 IP)

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Some of those numbers are so badly constructed, it is impossible to use them for a discussion.  Anthony had 8 DRS in only 290 IPs and they tagged him with a -8.7 defensively, simultaneously making him one of the best and one of the worst fielders in BB.  Abreu is an elite glove as well with no discussion necessary, but they have him tagged as -4.2.

Overall, the RS was easily the best DRS last year with +52, while TX (#2) was +36.  But Abreu, Duran, Ceddanne and Anthony combine for a -9.6 according to Steamer.  I'm pretty sure that's virtually impossible.

Sox projections adjusted to 180-190 IP:

5.6 Crochet

3.9 Gray

3.2 Early

2.5 Sandoval

2.1 Bello

2.0 Tolle

1.6 Crawford

1.3 Harrison

1.0 Dobbins

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

The current 2026 Steamer projections for Red Sox position players:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1764474193&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

What, if any, changes need to be made this offseason?

Past the defensive ratings, the biggest issues are 1) 2nd base, where we don't really have anyone, and 2) Casas' ABs.

With Casas, I can live with a 115 wRC+, but only if he is ready in April.  With 2nd, if we go over the top somewhere else, I could live with a platoon of Romy/Hammy, but it is also the easiest place to grab an upgrade. 

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of signing Okamoto.

• We have an automatic 1B regardless of Casas' health.
• A good backup for 3B if we want to rest Mayer against tough lefties.
• If Mayer gets hurt, Oka slides to 3rd.  If Story gets hurt, Mayer slides to SS, and Oka to 3rd.
• And he should be a good righty bat, which almost has to help.

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox projections adjusted to 180-190 IP:

5.6 Crochet

3.9 Gray

3.2 Early

2.5 Sandoval

2.1 Bello

2.0 Tolle

That's the money stat.  The more I think about it, the more hesitant I am to trade for another SP unless it is a top-tier #2 or better, with control.  2 out of 3 between Early, Sandoval & Tolle should be good.  That makes might expectations for the marginal improvement to be higher.  Basically, if Steamer is projecting a 2.8 for Lodolo, who I like, how much do we want to pay to have him bounce out Sandy, Early and/or Tolle?

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

That's the money stat.  The more I think about it, the more hesitant I am to trade for another SP unless it is a top-tier #2 or better, with control.  2 out of 3 between Early, Sandoval & Tolle should be good.  That makes might expectations for the marginal improvement to be higher.  Basically, if Steamer is projecting a 2.8 for Lodolo, who I like, how much do we want to pay to have him bounce out Sandy, Early and/or Tolle?

Do we really know what Sandoval is??? Seems like a bullpen kind of guy 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Past the defensive ratings, the biggest issues are 1) 2nd base, where we don't really have anyone, and 2) Casas' ABs.

With Casas, I can live with a 115 wRC+, but only if he is ready in April.  With 2nd, if we go over the top somewhere else, I could live with a platoon of Romy/Hammy, but it is also the easiest place to grab an upgrade. 

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of signing Okamoto.

• We have an automatic 1B regardless of Casas' health.
• A good backup for 3B if we want to rest Mayer against tough lefties.
• If Mayer gets hurt, Oka slides to 3rd.  If Story gets hurt, Mayer slides to SS, and Oka to 3rd.
• And he should be a good righty bat, which almost has to help.

I was just about to post about Okamoto, but you said it better than I could.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do we really know what Sandoval is??? Seems like a bullpen kind of guy 

he was pretty good for 2 seasons, although one was not a full season.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Some of those numbers are so badly constructed, it is impossible to use them for a discussion.  Anthony had 8 DRS in only 290 IPs and they tagged him with a -8.7 defensively, simultaneously making him one of the best and one of the worst fielders in BB.  Abreu is an elite glove as well with no discussion necessary, but they have him tagged as -4.2.

Overall, the RS was easily the best DRS last year with +52, while TX (#2) was +36.  But Abreu, Duran, Ceddanne and Anthony combine for a -9.6 according to Steamer.  I'm pretty sure that's virtually impossible.

It's the time of the year where we can all look sideways at a few Steamer calculations. I don't know how they come up with the defensive valuations, but they were way off last year too. Steamer was really down on the '25 Sox, but they were 10th overall in fWAR at the end of the year. They project every fulltime or near fulltime Sox player to regress in '26. 

'26 questionable calls:

Duran 2.5 fWAR

Rafaela 2.4 fWAR (even though his wRC+ increases to 95???)

Story 1.3 fWAR (with 100 games played)

Wilyer 1.7 fWAR (99 games played and career average wRC+)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Do we really know what Sandoval is??? Seems like a bullpen kind of guy 

Posters keep mentioning Sandoval as a possible member of the 2026 starting rotation, but has anyone in the Red Sox organization? 

I read a lot of online articles containing quotes and may be confusing overlap with overhype, but would appreciate it if a sharp talksox typist could supply such pertinent info...

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Posters keep mentioning Sandoval as a possible member of the 2026 starting rotation, but has anyone in the Red Sox organization? 

I read a lot of online articles containing quotes and may be confusing overlap with overhype, but would appreciate it if a sharp talksox typist could supply such pertinent info...

Not a peep.

To me, if he's healthy, he has the inside track on the 4 slot, maybe 5 slot.

The 5 slot is up for grabs between Crawford, Dobbins and Harrison.

Early and Tolle would need to have great ST'ings to win a rotation slot without significant injuries to 1-2 of the 6 pitchers ahead of them.

[moonslav59]

Nick Deeds reports...

The Red Sox have been connected to a lot of free agency’s top bats after strengthening the rotation with their Sonny Gray acquisition. Reports have indicated that the club is not only in on the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman but also interested in signing multiple well-regarded free agent bats. Despite all of that buzz, however, financial realities could make that difficult. Reporting over the weekend suggests that the team might not be willing to spend much farther than the first luxury tax threshold this winter, which would leave them with a roughly similar payroll to 2025. Barring a change of heart from ownership, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will either need to use the trade market to add some lower-cost bats and/or shed some salary via trade. Boston is currently about $21MM shy of the first tax threshold.

If our budget in $25M, we aren't getting 2 big FAs. Maybe we can make a trade for a big bat like K Marte ($19M AAV,) and if we give up Duran ($7.5M) or Campbell ($7.5M) or get them to take Hicks ($10.3M) maybe we can have enough left over for one moderate FA, but not someone like Schwarber, Alonso, Bregman or Bichette.

There is no excuse for skimping this winter. None!

We just got out from under the Devers deal and dropped a ton of salary from Buehler, Gio and others. 

The window is open. Don't close the curtains!

[mvp 78]

On Sandoval:

 

Breslow said, “(b)eing able to pencil him into the rotation next year makes this an even better move for us.”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not a peep.

To me, if he's healthy, he has the inside track on the 4 slot, maybe 5 slot.

Re. Sandoval: from what we've seen in Boston and on other pitching staffs, even for guys who return totally healthy from major surgery, it still takes at least half a year in a comeback season before most pitchers find their groove again. 

And relapses are very common. From Paxton to Giolito...

[mvp 78]

People are putting him in the rotation because he's on the 40 man and has no options. 

[notin]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

People are putting him in the rotation because he's on the 40 man and has no options. 

And because we love players named “Sandoval”…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

And because we love players named “Sandoval”…

50% of all MLBers named Sandoval have appeared for the Red Sox. Angels are the only other team with as high of a percentage. 

[notin]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nick Deeds reports...

The Red Sox have been connected to a lot of free agency’s top bats after strengthening the rotation with their Sonny Gray acquisition. Reports have indicated that the club is not only in on the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman but also interested in signing multiple well-regarded free agent bats. Despite all of that buzz, however, financial realities could make that difficult. Reporting over the weekend suggests that the team might not be willing to spend much farther than the first luxury tax threshold this winter, which would leave them with a roughly similar payroll to 2025. Barring a change of heart from ownership, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will either need to use the trade market to add some lower-cost bats and/or shed some salary via trade. Boston is currently about $21MM shy of the first tax threshold.

If our budget in $25M, we aren't getting 2 big FAs. Maybe we can make a trade for a big bat like K Marte ($19M AAV,) and if we give up Duran ($7.5M) or Campbell ($7.5M) or get them to take Hicks ($10.3M) maybe we can have enough left over for one moderate FA, but not someone like Schwarber, Alonso, Bregman or Bichette.

There is no excuse for skimping this winter. None!

We just got out from under the Devers deal and dropped a ton of salary from Buehler, Gio and others. 

The window is open. Don't close the curtains!

I see no point in trading away Hicks or Yoshida if the goal is to clear payroll since the Sox are likely to have to cover a big chunk of money and not likely to get anything back that fills a need.

At least trading Duran should net a useful player (or two?) and probably clears more cash…

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Re. Sandoval: from what we've seen in Boston and on other pitching staffs, even for guys who return totally healthy from major surgery, it still takes at least half a year in a comeback season before most pitchers find their groove again. 

And relapses are very common. From Paxton to Giolito...

Sandoval had the internal brace procedure, not the full TJS, so his timetable was expected to be shorter. He failed to pitch in 2025 due to another issue, I believe, so I think he should be 100% over the surgery, now. Hopefully, he is working out to strengthen his arm and will be ready day one of ST'ing.

It's hard to keep hoping on these guys, because we've came up short on almost every one of these signings, but maybe he breaks the mold.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I see no point in trading away Hicks or Yoshida if the goal is to clear payroll since the Sox are likely to have to cover a big chunk of money and not likely to get anything back that fills a need.

At least trading Duran should net a useful player (or two?) and probably clears more cash…

If it comes down to pennies, maybe trading Masa and "saving" $5-6M on AAV and or Hicks and saving $4-5M on AAV would add up to enough to sign a bigger name than a moderate one. Trading Duran or Campbell could add some more.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

50% of all MLBers named Sandoval have appeared for the Red Sox. Angels are the only other team with as high of a percentage. 

Technically only 25% of Sandoval’s have appeared in games for the Red Sox.  Patrick will need to make his Boston debut to allow the Sox to tie the Angels for tjis prestigious honor…

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

If it comes down to pennies, maybe trading Masa and "saving" $5-6M on AAV and or Hicks and saving $4-5M on AAV would add up to enough to sign a bigger name than a moderate one. Trading Duran or Campbell could add some more.

So the Sox could trade both, pay all but $11mill out of the $40mill-ish they’re owed, get nothing back and sign maybe one player?

Better off trading Duran and/or Bello, getting 1-2 useful players, and holding the cap space for inevitable mid year additions rather than paying $30mill to two more guys playing elsewhere…