A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Offense Lost from 2025:

Certainly not "addition by subtraction as a whole)

.821 Bregman (495 PAs)

.905 Devers (334 PAs)

.659 Toro (284)

.838 Ref (209)

.790 Lowe (119)

.354 Sabol (18) .000 A Sanchez (2)

That's 1038 PAs from Breggie, Devers and Ref (all over .821 and maybe combined to about .860ish)

Add Lowe and we're at 1157 PAs near .850. That's about two FT bats. Total in Toro and scrubs and we're at 1460+ PAs at over .810 or so. That's more than 2 FT'ers.

We will be adding a bat or two, and maybe even a name or two from the list above (Breg & Ref?) but we should also see more PAs from...

303 to 653? Anthony .859 +300

417 to 567? Abreu .786 +150

205 to 455? Yoshida .696 +250

136 to 436? Mayer .674 +300

That's 1,100 more PAs

112 to ??? Casas .580

Maybe less from Story, Narvaez & DHam?

[Larry Cook]

20 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Let us know what you find, gumshoe

Mets fans I met on line seem to think the problem is the Mets training staff and the program the trainers put together!!  

[Larry Cook]

Is the pitching staff we have now, the staff that reports to fort Myers? 
 

rotation: 

1.) crochet [left] (core player) 

2.) gray (core - one and done) 

3.) bello (core)

4.) Sandoval [left] (filler - one and done) 

5.) cutter (filler - looking to upgrade) 

bullpen: 

1.) Chapman [left] (core player) 

2.) Whitlock (core player) 

3.) slaten (core player) 

4.) weissert (filler) 
5.) Criswell (filler)

6.) Harrison [left] (filler ) 

7.) drohan [left] (filler) 

8.) hicks - (filler - looking to upgrade) 

starter depth at Worcester:

dobbins - when healthy, uberstine, early [left], tolle [left], perales - when healthy 

reliever depth at Worcester: 

Kelly,  Moran [left],  Sandlin 

 

[moonslav59]

Assuming we have $21M to line 1 and $41M to line 2 ($61M to avoid dropping our draft pick down 10 slots.) here are some ideas:

$21M and no more:

Trade Duran for Lodolo (saves $3.2M,) trade Campbell, Tolle, Harrison and Hicks for K Marte (adds $9.2M) and sign Refsnyder ($4M/1) and Matz ($5M x 2)

$41M:

Same two trades (adds $6M) and sign Alonso at $30M x 5 and Matz at $5M x 2.

$61M:

Same two trades (adds $6M) and sign Alonso at $30M and Schwarber at $25M (extra year)

 

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 sign Refsnyder ($4M/1) and Matz ($5M/2)

 

I like the idea of bringing both of these players back.
didn’t matz say he prefers a chance to be a starter again? 
If matz had better strike out numbers, I think bres-slow would have tried to extended him in the regular season. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is the pitching staff we have now, the staff that reports to fort Myers? 
 

rotation: 

1.) crochet [left] (core player) 

2.) gray (core - one and done) 

3.) bello (core)

4.) Sandoval [left] (filler - one and done) 

5.) cutter (filler - looking to upgrade) 

bullpen: 

1.) Chapman [left] (core player) 

2.) Whitlock (core player) 

3.) slaten (core player) 

4.) weissert (filler) 
5.) Criswell (filler)

6.) Harrison [left] (filler ) 

7.) drohan [left] (filler) 

8.) hicks - (filler - looking to upgrade) 

starter depth at Worcester:

dobbins - when healthy, uberstine, early [left], tolle [left], perales - when healthy 

reliever depth at Worcester: 

Kelly,  Moran [left],  Sandlin 

 

Looks about right. Criswell, Hicks and Moran are out of options, so probably all 3 start on the 26 man roster opening day (or IL.)

I like Harrison and Dobbins and think one can and might win the 5 slot from Crawford, who could move to the pen. (Harrison & Dobbins may be in the pen, as well.)

Early, Tolle and Perales are the big wild cards, and with all that talent, my guess is one will shine in '26 and win a key role somewhere on the 13 man staff. Another big boost could come from Slaten doubling his IP from 2025 and pitching like 2024 not 2025.

I hate planning on hopes and promises, but every team does to some extent. I liked how you highlighted that just 6 pitchers are considered "core." That should be more like 8-9 on a highly competitive team. Having 15 decent choices to fill the other 7 slots is a nice thing to have, but if we have to trial and error it through 8 guys who stink up the place to find the right 7, we may be out of it before we know it. That also assumes the core 6 stay healthy.

This team needed depth for many years and we have it, now. It is time to move from quantity to quality, while keeping just enough depth. That is not easy to plan, and we saw how trading Priester, last season blew up in our faces.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

I like the idea of bringing both of these players back.
didn’t matz say he prefers a chance to be a starter again? 
If matz had better strike out numbers, I think bres-slow would have tried to extended him in the regular season. 

I meant Matz as $5M x 2 not $5M/2.

If Matz wants to start, he'll have to go elsewhere.

Word is teams are looking at Newcomb as a starter, and I ask why?

[Larry Cook]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is time to move from quantity to quality, while keeping just enough depth. That is not easy to plan, and we saw how trading Priester, last season blew up

This is the most important thing that bres-slow has to do!  Balancing quantity and quality. 
 

the budget says we can only sign so many exceptional pitchers. 
 

having a fully stocked minor league system seems to be the best and most efficient way to build quality depth! 
I think bres-slow did a tremendous job of using the minor league system to deal with the incredible number of injuries we had in 2025! I think bres-slow had to rush guys like Tolle and early and I think think year he hopes to avoid that, if possible. 
 

the biggest thing for 27 and 28 are the pitchers with good to great stuff that got injured this year. (Valera specifically) those guys could be a huge boost to farm system depth in the future 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

This is the most important thing that bres-slow has to do!  Balancing quantity and quality. 
 

the budget says we can only sign so many exceptional pitchers. 
 

having a fully stocked minor league system seems to be the best and most efficient way to build quality depth! 
I think bres-slow did a tremendous job of using the minor league system to deal with the incredible number of injuries we had in 2025! I think bres-slow had to rush guys like Tolle and early and I think think year he hopes to avoid that, if possible. 
 

the biggest thing for 27 and 28 are the pitchers with good to great stuff that got injured this year. (Valera specifically) those guys could be a huge boost to farm system depth in the future 

 

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

This is the most important thing that bres-slow has to do!  Balancing quantity and quality. 
 

the budget says we can only sign so many exceptional pitchers. 
 

having a fully stocked minor league system seems to be the best and most efficient way to build quality depth! 
I think bres-slow did a tremendous job of using the minor league system to deal with the incredible number of injuries we had in 2025! I think bres-slow had to rush guys like Tolle and early and I think think year he hopes to avoid that, if possible. 
 

the biggest thing for 27 and 28 are the pitchers with good to great stuff that got injured this year. (Valera specifically) those guys could be a huge boost to farm system depth in the future 

Agreed and pitching depth is the hardest to build.

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Mets fans I met on line seem to think the problem is the Mets training staff and the program the trainers put together!!  

What fanbase speaks highly of their training and medical staff? 

[moonslav59]

Sox sign Vinny Capra (infielder) to minor league deal.

[moonslav59]

We can't agree on what a #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 are on this site, and then we all have different ideas on what numbers are more important than others, so asking us to place out pitchers into these categories is bound to get wild fluctuation.

My methodology is to say you are a number one, if you are a top 30 pitcher in many of the stats that matter to me: ERA-/ERA+, fWAR more than bWAR, FIP and maybe K-BB%. (WAR factors in IP alot, so I don't need that included. A Number two is 31-60, #3 61-90 and so on...

What I think is interesting about our SP'er ratings is than so many have pretty high ceilings. One could argue many have low floors, too. The pitchers we have with significant experience have already shown they can pitch well for a season or two, but again, almost all have a bad season or two, as well. Determining their ceiling could be just saying they can repeat their bast year. Only Gray is old enough to say that is unreasonable to expect or even hope for.

Here is my floor-ceiling ratings for our SP'ers.

High 1- Mid 1 Crochet

Mid 2- mid 4 Gray

Low 2- high 4 Bello

High 3- low 4 Sandoval (Had a 3.7 fWAR in '22 & 2.3 in '23)

High 3-mid/low 5 Crawford (2.4 in '23 not fully a SP)

Mid 3- low 5 Harrison

Mid 3- low 5 Dobbins

Low 3- low 6 Criswell

Mid 2-???? Early

Mid 2-???? Tolle

Mid 3-???? Perales

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox sign Vinny Capra (infielder) to minor league deal.

LOL...what a joke. my 60 year old fat ass could put up better numbers than him.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

LOL...what a joke. my 60 year old fat ass could put up better numbers than him.

He should play the full season at WOO

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/22/2025 at 3:14 PM, Hugh2 said:

He wasn’t, but if he goes into a serious decline you lose a lot more in value in the long run if you had signed him to 6-7 years prior instead.

thats the point of overpaying for less years

i actually get that but dont like it. i think Bregman was worth 22-25 million tops.  much rather pay 75 for 4 than 40 for 1

[Duran Is The Man]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He should play the full season at WOO

Breslow must have lost a bet or something. no way this guy is the best they can find to fill out a AAA roster.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/27/2025 at 1:06 PM, Larry Cook said:

4.) Sandoval [left] (filler - one and done) 

5.) cutter (filler - looking to upgrade) 

I'd say that Early should rank above those two.  Tolle as well, though the RS might be thinking of different ways to develop him.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

LOL...what a joke. my 60 year old fat ass could put up better numbers than him.

 

21 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Breslow must have lost a bet or something. no way this guy is the best they can find to fill out a AAA roster.

He's got a rock solid .757 OPS in AAA!

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd say that Early should rank above those two.  Tolle as well, though the RS might be thinking of different ways to develop him.

I kinda feel the same, but I think the inside track will be to the experienced, first: Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins/Harrison (maybe in that order.)

A great ST'ing by anyone, including a rookie, could jump any of these 6 into the rotation.

This from a guy who does not put much stock into ST'ing numbers. That's how bunched up they all are.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is my floor-ceiling ratings for our SP'ers.

High 1- Mid 1 Crochet

Mid 2- mid 4 Gray

Low 2- high 4 Bello

High 3- low 4 Sandoval (Had a 3.7 fWAR in '22 & 2.3 in '23)

High 3-mid/low 5 Crawford (2.4 in '23 not fully a SP)

Mid 3- low 5 Harrison

Mid 3- low 5 Dobbins

Low 3- low 6 Criswell

Mid 2-???? Early

Mid 2-???? Tolle

Mid 3-???? Perales

I think this is a pretty fair and accurate assessment of the ceiling and floors! Excellent job! 
 

early - I love his stuff! True, he does not have an out pitch, but if he is successful at mixing and matching  3-4 different pitches, he will generate outs and most importantly for bres-slow, strike outs!!!  I hope he starts the year at Worcester and works on tightening up the secondaries. 
 

tolle - already has an elite major league fastball. The development of his secondary pitches will determine if he is crochet like ace or our next closer. The slider was tremendous in the minors last season, but as he hit the rookie wall in Boston, he lost the sharp break on it. I think he gets the slider working again in 2026! Can he refine the cutter or curve or change up into a legitimate 3rd pitch. If he does, then he will develop into a crochet like ace!!!! 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think this is a pretty fair and accurate assessment of the ceiling and floors! Excellent job! 
 

early - I love his stuff! True, he does not have an out pitch, but if he is successful at mixing and matching  3-4 different pitches, he will generate outs and most importantly for bres-slow, strike outs!!!  I hope he starts the year at Worcester and works on tightening up the secondaries. 
 

tolle - already has an elite major league fastball. The development of his secondary pitches will determine if he is crochet like ace or our next closer. The slider was tremendous in the minors last season, but as he hit the rookie wall in Boston, he lost the sharp break on it. I think he gets the slider working again in 2026! Can he refine the cutter or curve or change up into a legitimate 3rd pitch. If he does, then he will develop into a crochet like ace!!!! 

If my assessment is right, what other team has so much upside promise, in terms of quantity?

We have a sure fire #1. Everyone agrees.

We have 4 pitchers with #2 upside potential or have already pitched like one.

We have another 6 with #3 upside potential.

I'd be fine saying Criswell is a #4 tops, so 10 pitchers with that much upside is rather stunning. My guess is one gets traded with an OF'er to upgrade the infield or maybe get that "real #2" that was talked about.

 

 

[UtahSox]

On 11/27/2025 at 10:06 AM, Larry Cook said:

Is the pitching staff we have now, the staff that reports to fort Myers? 
 

rotation: 

1.) crochet [left] (core player) 

2.) gray (core - one and done) 

3.) bello (core)

4.) Sandoval [left] (filler - one and done) 

5.) cutter (filler - looking to upgrade) 

bullpen: 

1.) Chapman [left] (core player) 

2.) Whitlock (core player) 

3.) slaten (core player) 

4.) weissert (filler) 
5.) Criswell (filler)

6.) Harrison [left] (filler ) 

7.) drohan [left] (filler) 

8.) hicks - (filler - looking to upgrade) 

starter depth at Worcester:

dobbins - when healthy, uberstine, early [left], tolle [left], perales - when healthy 

reliever depth at Worcester: 

Kelly,  Moran [left],  Sandlin 

 

We’re clearly seeing the logjam now, and it explains why we moved on from Fitts — he either wasn’t going to fit on the 40-man, or someone very similar to him wasn’t going to make it.

 

My concern is this: if Crochet misses any real time in 2026, our rotation instantly becomes the Honda Civic of MLB rotations. That’s why we have to add another true top-end starter.

 

When you compare our rotation to the Yankees’:

• Crochet is the best, in my opinion

• very closely followed by Cole and Fried

• then there’s a big drop to Rodón

• another drop to Schlittler, Gray, and Bello

• and another drop to all of our young depth arms

 

And when you compare our rotation to the Blue Jays’:

• Crochet is still the best, in my opinion

• but after him there’s a noticeable drop-off

• Toronto has several arms in that next tier — Gausman, YeaSavage, and Bieber (Year 2 post–TJ)

• all of whom would currently slot ahead of our next group

 

All of this just reinforces how badly we need one more frontline starter if we want to compete with the top teams.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Toronto also just signed Cease, who could be good or mediocre, but will give them innings.

As for NY's Cole coming off major surgery, don't be so sure he'll be as good as new. It may take him a season to fully heal and pitch with consistency.

Cole's also going to be 36 in '26, so by the time he's reliable again he could be as good as old.

[UtahSox]

I had somehow had forgotten about Cease….. I think with Rodon and Fried they will slowly bring Cole along ready hammer down in September/ October.

[Hugh2]

5 hours ago, UtahSox said:

 

 

We’re clearly seeing the logjam now, and it explains why we moved on from Fitts — he either wasn’t going to fit on the 40-man, or someone very similar to him wasn’t going to make it.

 

My concern is this: if Crochet misses any real time in 2026, our rotation instantly becomes the Honda Civic of MLB rotations. That’s why we have to add another true top-end starter.

 

When you compare our rotation to the Yankees’:

• Crochet is the best, in my opinion

• very closely followed by Cole and Fried

• then there’s a big drop to Rodón

• another drop to Schlittler, Gray, and Bello

• and another drop to all of our young depth arms

 

And when you compare our rotation to the Blue Jays’:

• Crochet is still the best, in my opinion

• but after him there’s a noticeable drop-off

• Toronto has several arms in that next tier — Gausman, YeaSavage, and Bieber (Year 2 post–TJ)

• all of whom would currently slot ahead of our next group

 

All of this just reinforces how badly we need one more frontline starter if we want to compete with the top teams.

I think you can put Sonny ahead of Schittler and Bello and probably even Rodom at this point.

Rodon last 2 years Fwar = 4.8, Gray = 7.4

you also mentioned very young g talent with very little MLB experience on other teams like Schittler and Yesavage and don’t list guys like Tolle and Early, who have big ceilings of being #2 and could be consistent contributors by seasons end. 
 

FWIW if we go by 2026 projections

Crochet: 5.6

Sonny Gray: 3.9

Dylan Cease: 3.8

Max Fried 3.6

 

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Toronto also just signed Cease, who could be good or mediocre, but will give them innings.

As for NY's Cole coming off major surgery, don't be so sure he'll be as good as new. It may take him a season to fully heal and pitch with consistency.

Cole's also going to be 36 in '26, so by the time he's reliable again he could be as good as old.

He’s coming off TJ and one year younger than Gray.  We have no ideal what he will look like when he comes back, which might be mid 2026.  Unlike Gray, he heavily relies on his fastball so if the velocity comes back then he might be fine but if not…he’s cooked.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, UtahSox said:

We’re clearly seeing the logjam now, and it explains why we moved on from Fitts — he either wasn’t going to fit on the 40-man, or someone very similar to him wasn’t going to make it.

Fitts might have earned a pen slot, but I agree- others looks like very similar choices.

[harmony]

10 hours ago, UtahSox said:

 

 

We’re clearly seeing the logjam now, and it explains why we moved on from Fitts — he either wasn’t going to fit on the 40-man, or someone very similar to him wasn’t going to make it.

 

My concern is this: if Crochet misses any real time in 2026, our rotation instantly becomes the Honda Civic of MLB rotations. That’s why we have to add another true top-end starter.

 

When you compare our rotation to the Yankees’:

• Crochet is the best, in my opinion

• very closely followed by Cole and Fried

• then there’s a big drop to Rodón

• another drop to Schlittler, Gray, and Bello

• and another drop to all of our young depth arms

 

And when you compare our rotation to the Blue Jays’:

• Crochet is still the best, in my opinion

• but after him there’s a noticeable drop-off

• Toronto has several arms in that next tier — Gausman, YeaSavage, and Bieber (Year 2 post–TJ)

• all of whom would currently slot ahead of our next group

 

All of this just reinforces how badly we need one more frontline starter if we want to compete with the top teams.

Check out the 2026 Steamer projections for Red Sox pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... Yankee pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=9&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... and Blue Jay pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=14&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

 

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, harmony said:

Check out the 2026 Steamer projections for Red Sox pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... Yankee pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=9&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... and Blue Jay pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=14&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

 

The Sox have 6 SP'er at 0.9 or more, 6 over 1.1 and 3 over 1.7.

The Yanks have 6 over 0.9, 5 over 1.1 and 4 over 1.7.

TOR has 5 over 0.0, 5 over 1.1 and 4 over 1.7

Kinda what I expected: we are heavy on quantity not quality.

[Duran Is The Man]

12 hours ago, harmony said:

Check out the 2026 Steamer projections for Red Sox pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... Yankee pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=9&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... and Blue Jay pitchers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=14&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

 

adding up the wins/losses they project gives us:

Boston 91-91

Toronto 91-90

NYY 86-79

Seattle 78-73

 

ok.