A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, maybe. He's been a nice innings eater, too.

He did slump a little after his first 3 starts, but 3.86 w and FIP or 4.21 between those 3 starts and his last one would have looked very. (14 game stretch.)

It is weird that he liked the guy enough to trade for him, then traded him away. Maybe Holobetz jumps up, soon. BTW, Y Rod hit a game winning HR, last night.

Now, we look to trade better prospects for pitching. Oh well.

It was a really weird time to be trading a starter.  Apparently they saw the Brewers as being desperate and willing to overpay in future talent.  And they must not have been high on Priester's stuff.

I appreciate that Breslow has been bold, but this move was kind of hyper-aggressive IMHO.

[Soxlover]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It was a really weird time to be trading a starter.  Apparently they saw the Brewers as being desperate and willing to overpay in future talent.  And they must not have been high on Priester's stuff.

I appreciate that Breslow has been bold, but this move was kind of hyper-aggressive IMHO.

maybe Brez saw something I. holibetz

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

maybe Brez saw something I. holibetz

Your new dual identity is messing me up a bit. 😀

[Duran Is The Man]

48 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Your new dual identity is messing me up a bit. 😀

the text not in bold is what throws me off.

[dgalehouse]

Just for information: MLB Extra Innings is having a free preview all weekend. You can watch the Red Sox vs Cubs and all MLB games for free. The channels will vary depending on  your service provider. And they have a discount price for the rest of the regular season. 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

With Valera and Peaz going to the 60 dl, and the 60 day dl is already almost full with mostly pitchers, I think I see why hang’em Chaim was stockpiling only bats on our system!!!  
pitching is fragile and needing almost 2 years to recover from UCl surgery is brutal on a farm system 

But I do think bres-slow needs to balance his drafting going forward!!   Or soon we will be position player deficient!! (Think our current catching situation in the minors! 
although signing quality free agent hitters is easier than quality free agent pitchers 

I was fine stacking up on everyday prospects, since they are more likely to work out than drafting pitchers. The idea that goes along with it is that we'd also sign FA pitchers, when needed or trade some everyday players for pitching when needed.

We need a pitcher or two, now, but it seems very few posters want to trade everyday players or prospects for pitchers.

I'm thinking this blitz of adding more pitchers than everyday players via drafts and signings may be short-lived as we try to  balance it out some. Also, as the team moves towards being top contenders, the time arises where adding quality arms becomes the top priority. I think that's why we saw college signings as the window may be open from 2025 and onwards for 4-6 more years. Many of our core everyday players are controlled for 4+ years. (Some of our pitchers, too.)

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was fine stacking up on everyday prospects, since they are more likely to work out than drafting pitchers. The idea that goes along with it is that we'd also sign FA pitchers, when needed or trade some everyday players for pitching when needed.

We need a pitcher or two, now, but it seems very few posters want to trade everyday players or prospects for pitchers.

I'm thinking this blitz of adding more pitchers than everyday players via drafts and signings may be short-lived as we try to  balance it out some. Also, as the team moves towards being top contenders, the time arises where adding quality arms becomes the top priority. I think that's why we saw college signings as the window may be open from 2025 and onwards for 4-6 more years. Many of our core everyday players are controlled for 4+ years. (Some of our pitchers, too.)

having Priester would be nice.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

having Priester would be nice.

I agree, but I'm not gonna roast Brez for getting this one wrong (so far.)

The Crochet deal wipes a lot of mistakes away in one swoop, and then he got the extension.

The Chapman and Wilson signing proved the biggest spring pen doubter on this site, wrong- ME! A+ and A+. The Buehler signing has sucked, so far, but the sucky Gio signing is coming back in a big way.

Let's not forget, Brez traded for many pitchers, including Priester in under 2 years. Some have worked our okay to well, and some have not or are still TBD. Some not mentioned:

Slaten, Weissert, Harrison

Sandoval, Hicks, Criswell, Burdi

Sandlin, Fajardo, Holobetz,  J Bello, Judice, Moran

I Campbell & Hendriks

I did not mention any draftees or IFA signings, here.

Two of Brez's biggest fails are Sale and Priester (so far.) Not a bad percent of failings.

[moonslav59]

Top Pitchers by fWAR since 2024 on teams that may be sellers.

8.3 Skenes (very likely not available)

6.9 Cease SDP (not a seller but Cease will be a FA)

6.9 S Gray STL

6.5 Ragans KCR (very likely not available)

6.3 M Gore WSH

5.8 Joe Ryan MIN

5.6 S Lugo KCR

5.5 Eovaldi TEX

5.1 Wacha KCR

4.8 M Keller PIT

4.6 Pivetta SDP (very likely not available)

4.4 J Soriano LAA

4.1 Bibee CLE

4.0 Singer CIN

3.7 Lodolo & N Martinez CIN

3.7 Pfaadt ARI

3.5 Severino OAK

3.3 Ober MIN, Parker WSH

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Top Pitchers by fWAR since 2024 on teams that may be sellers.

8.3 Skenes (very likely not available)

6.9 Cease SDP (not a seller but Cease will be a FA)

6.9 S Gray STL

6.5 Ragans KCR (very likely not available)

6.3 M Gore WSH

5.8 Joe Ryan MIN

5.6 S Lugo KCR

5.5 Eovaldi TEX

5.1 Wacha KCR

4.8 M Keller PIT

4.6 Pivetta SDP (very likely not available)

4.4 J Soriano LAA

4.1 Bibee CLE

4.0 Singer CIN

3.7 Lodolo & N Martinez CIN

3.7 Pfaadt ARI

3.5 Severino OAK

3.3 Ober MIN, Parker WSH

i was wondering who we might try to target. thanks for posting this.

 

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Top Pitchers by fWAR since 2024 on teams that may be sellers.

8.3 Skenes (very likely not available)

6.9 Cease SDP (not a seller but Cease will be a FA)

6.9 S Gray STL

6.5 Ragans KCR (very likely not available)

6.3 M Gore WSH

5.8 Joe Ryan MIN

5.6 S Lugo KCR

5.5 Eovaldi TEX

5.1 Wacha KCR

4.8 M Keller PIT

4.6 Pivetta SDP (very likely not available)

4.4 J Soriano LAA

4.1 Bibee CLE

4.0 Singer CIN

3.7 Lodolo & N Martinez CIN

3.7 Pfaadt ARI

3.5 Severino OAK

3.3 Ober MIN, Parker WSH

Is lugo a free agent at the end of this season???

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is lugo a free agent at the end of this season???

Lugo has a player option for 2026.

[moonslav59]

Mark Poilshuk reports:

Tanner Houck is being evaluated by Red Sox team doctors after sustaining “a recurrence of the right pronator strain” the right-hander initially suffered back in mid-May...

[vegasbob]

On 7/14/2025 at 5:07 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Getting right down to it: Boston has had winning records at the All-Star Break in every season this decade -- and then had miserable second halves (except '21, when the Sox still had a worse record than the first half).

Red Sox Record @ All-Star Break

'21 55-36... post Break: 37 more wins; finish 2nd

'22 48-45... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST

'23 48-43... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST 

'24 53-43... post Break: 28 more wins, finish 3rd

'25 53-45 -- WHAT CAN BRESLOW DO TO CHANGE THIS SECOND HALF CULTURE?

It all comes down to pitching, and fragile starting rotations that invariably lead to bullpen burnout. Can the Big Three remain consistent and healthy? Can we count on Buehler to find it, or Houck or Harrison to step in and replicate what Dobbins did in the first half? All are possible... none are likely.

One thing is certain: the deadline deals this decade that just added an extra reliever or two who were once good or serviceable won't be enough. And no more Paxtons for the rotation -- if Brez is going to add a starter, it has to be a sturdy arm that can start a postseason game.

We don't have to break up the MLB roster, that cohesive energetic group on a 10-game streak. A deep farm system stockpiled with position player prospects was made for this moment...  

 

 

Houck is apparently back to ground zero with his pronator strain in the right arm.     Usually a precursor to TJ repair .     I think Tanner is done for this year, joining Crawford ( what was his off field accident ?) and Dobbins as non factors for 2026.

This makes it essential that Brez does get , at minimum, a #3 or better  in the next 2 weeks .   Pay the price and pull this team into the playoffs.

[Nick]

I would pull the Tamp Rays and let Tolle come up and start a game.

He's averaging close to 1.5 K's per inning.

In 18 innings at Portland, 4 BB's and 27 K's, .164 BA, ..522 OPS

Sale and Crochet never pitched in AAA.

Bring him up and let him start a game.....what are we afraid of? Do we have to go through another mental midget iteration on this board? He will be damaged good if he bombs in his first outing?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

Houck is apparently back to ground zero with his pronator strain in the right arm.     Usually a precursor to TJ repair .     I think Tanner is done for this year, joining Crawford ( what was his off field accident ?) and Dobbins as non factors for 2026.

This makes it essential that Brez does get , at minimum, a #3 or better  in the next 2 weeks .   Pay the price and pull this team into the playoffs.

I like the idea of adding a solid #2/3 type SP'ers who is not a rental.

That pushed Gio to 3, Bello to 4 and we have Fitts & Sandoval for the 5 slot.

Buehler remains a longshot.

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, Nick said:

I would pull the Tamp Rays and let Tolle come up and start a game.

He's averaging close to 1.5 K's per inning.

In 18 innings at Portland, 4 BB's and 27 K's, .164 BA, ..522 OPS

Sale and Crochet never pitched in AAA.

Bring him up and let him start a game.....what are we afraid of? Do we have to go through another mental midget iteration on this board? He will be damaged good if he bombs in his first outing?

I want to know how his secondaries look.  He has an elite fastball, that alone will get him to the majors, he can dominate minor leaguers like that but he will have a hard time fooling mlb hitters 2nd time through an order like that. 

If anything, it makes sense to bring him up in a bullpen role, as he may still need refinement as a starter in the minors.  But his ceiling is so high....I'm not sure I want to mess with that right now. 

[moonslav59]

Bringing Tolle up is an interesting idea. He's looking great.

Hard to know how a rough time might affect his psyche. I'm not sure that worry outweighs our needs.

 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bringing Tolle up is an interesting idea. He's looking great.

Hard to know how a rough time might affect his psyche. I'm not sure that worry outweighs our needs.

 

If he comes up, it'd be in a relief role down the stretch IMO. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If he comes up, it'd be in a relief role down the stretch IMO. 

Agree. 0.001% chance he ever gets a MLB GS in 2025.

I would totally understand if he does not get a 2025 MLB call up.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agree. 0.001% chance he ever gets a MLB GS in 2025.

I would totally understand if he does not get a 2025 MLB call up.

Putting him in the pen would help manage his innings as well. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Bringing Tolle up is an interesting idea. He's looking great.

Hard to know how a rough time might affect his psyche. I'm not sure that worry outweighs our needs.

 

Quick: bring up Tolle before he ruins the psyches of minor league batters for life!

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, Nick said:

I would pull the Tamp Rays and let Tolle come up and start a game.

He's averaging close to 1.5 K's per inning.

In 18 innings at Portland, 4 BB's and 27 K's, .164 BA, ..522 OPS

Sale and Crochet never pitched in AAA.

Bring him up and let him start a game.....what are we afraid of? Do we have to go through another mental midget iteration on this board? He will be damaged good if he bombs in his first outing?

He would be interesting to see for sure, but lets not pretend prospects haven't been damaged by being promoted to fast and/or not prepared properly for what's coming.

We see nailed on prospects flame out all the time.  We've seen this very season what happened to our very own minor player of the year when we brought him up too early. 

[sk7326]

16 hours ago, Nick said:

I would pull the Tamp Rays and let Tolle come up and start a game.

He's averaging close to 1.5 K's per inning.

In 18 innings at Portland, 4 BB's and 27 K's, .164 BA, ..522 OPS

Sale and Crochet never pitched in AAA.

Bring him up and let him start a game.....what are we afraid of? Do we have to go through another mental midget iteration on this board? He will be damaged good if he bombs in his first outing?

This is where the scouting matters more I think - as fas whether he should start.  If he is getting through AA on fastball and deception, that's great - but not enough to be a plus starter.  If his secondary stuff  (the real question on him) is acceptable it's a different discussion.  

Moving him up for the bullpen is more plausible.  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

He would be interesting to see for sure, but lets not pretend prospects haven't been damaged by being promoted to fast and/or not prepared properly for what's coming.

We see nailed on prospects flame out all the time.  We've seen this very season what happened to our very own minor player of the year when we brought him up too early. 

Who did this happen to?

Campbell came up and hit fine. The league then caught up to him. If he stayed in AAA for 6 more months, the league would have just caught up to him at that point. He just needs to figure it out.

 

[sk7326]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who did this happen to?

Campbell came up and hit fine. The league then caught up to him. If he stayed in AAA for 6 more months, the league would have just caught up to him at that point. He just needs to figure it out.

 

Exactly.  He rocketed up to the big club and hit a wall for the first time.  Says nothing about his future - that part is up to him. 

[Larry Cook]

Tolle is a one pitch pitcher from what I have seen. The secondaries are inconsistent at this point!!! 
 

I think the Sox will put him on the same program as early. After he settles in to the game, the second time through the lineup, he throws a ton of secondary stuff 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't worry whether Payton Tolle can handle the big lights. In college he threw a 128-pitch complete game shutout for TCU at Oklahoma State. When he was at Wichita State he once threw a two-hitter with 10 Ks and also batted clean-up, going 5-for-5 with 6 RBI.

Before that Tolle was always Almost Famous. His hometown is Stillwater...

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Who did this happen to?

Campbell came up and hit fine. The league then caught up to him. If he stayed in AAA for 6 more months, the league would have just caught up to him at that point. He just needs to figure it out.

 

They ruined him for life. Now he can't even hit in the minors, anymore! (Green font)

[dgalehouse]

When deadline trades happen, they are often a surprise.  The many fantasy trade proposals and rumors seldom actually happen. It has to be a stressful time for the players and their families. Not knowing where you will be ten days from now.