A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

Bello has great numbers with Wong. Just start Wong every 5 games and live with the sub .400 OPS. (I'm thinking he might hit .550 the rest of the way. LOL)

.618 OPS Against when Wong is the catcher

.790 with Narvaez (slightly better ERA w CN)

Career:

.599 w Jansen (39 IP) 3.23 ERA

.721 w Wong (268 IP) 3.83

.780 McGuire (116) 4.89

.790 Narvaez (29) 3.07

1.027 Vazquez (16) 8.82

If we can upgrade Wong without losing much, okay, but it's far down on my priority list.

 

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bello has great numbers with Wong. Just start Wong every 5 games and live with the sub .400 OPS. (I'm thinking he might hit .550 the rest of the way. LOL)

.618 OPS Against when Wong is the catcher

.790 with Narvaez (slightly better ERA w CN)

Career:

.599 w Jansen (39 IP) 3.23 ERA

.721 w Wong (268 IP) 3.83

.780 McGuire (116) 4.89

.790 Narvaez (29) 3.07

1.027 Vazquez (16) 8.82

If we can upgrade Wong without losing much, okay, but it's far down on my priority list.

 

I knew he must be someone's "binky".  🙂

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I knew he must be someone's "binky".  🙂

He wasn't on the Netflix doc and it got a lot of people worked up. I guess much ado about nothing... 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I knew he must be someone's "binky".  🙂

It seems Cora realizes this. Another feather in Cora's war bonnet.

[moonslav59]

Not hearing much "Fire Cora" and "Fire Brez" talk.

Hmmmm....

[Nick]

"Breakout star Carlos Narváez has already started 67 games this year. That’s a lot for a catcher who has never experienced such a heavy workload. There are small signs that wear and tear has taken a toll, like Cora’s desire to work Connor Wong in more and the fact Narváez has only hit .235 with a .657 OPS in an 18-game stretch dating back to June 16.

On paper, Wong should be the type of backup any team wants: someone who used to start, is still young, has improved defensively and can provide some pop when he does play. But in a much-different role (27 starts), Wong has hit .149 with a single RBI and zero extra-base hits. He has a .384 OPS in 98 plate appearances and is 5-for-36 since June 1.

Wong would likely be hitting better if he was an everyday player in a routine and he might break out again if he gets traded and gets that opportunity. For now, though, he represents an offensive black hole when he plays and a contending team may want to upgrade.

One name to watch? Old friend Christian Vázquez, who is also not hitting (.170 average, .492 OPS) but has some intangibles the Red Sox like. The Twins would probably trade him in a salary dump."

But, but but but but, he works HARD. Apparently Narvaez doesn't. I bet Buehler works hard too, As does Houck. Hey, trophy for everyone.

 

[notin]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bello has great numbers with Wong. Just start Wong every 5 games and live with the sub .400 OPS. (I'm thinking he might hit .550 the rest of the way. LOL)

.618 OPS Against when Wong is the catcher

.790 with Narvaez (slightly better ERA w CN)

Career:

.599 w Jansen (39 IP) 3.23 ERA

.721 w Wong (268 IP) 3.83

.780 McGuire (116) 4.89

.790 Narvaez (29) 3.07

1.027 Vazquez (16) 8.82

If we can upgrade Wong without losing much, okay, but it's far down on my priority list.

 

Instead of upgrading Wong, maybe the Sox need a catcher with an option left.  They have only Wong and Narvaez on the 40 man roster and only Seby Zavala with any MLB experience in the minors, where he’s not exactly dazzling.  With no more August trades, the Sox might want to add depth just in case of injury at catcher.

 

Unless they’re fine with Zavala, who is there for them without taking up a 40 man spot…

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not hearing much "Fire Cora" and "Fire Brez" talk.

Hmmmm....

Would you expect to hear it during a 10 game winning streak? Just wait until the pen blows its next game. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Instead of upgrading Wong, maybe the Sox need a catcher with an option left.  They have only Wong and Narvaez on the 40 man roster and only Seby Zavala with any MLB experience in the minors, where he’s not exactly dazzling.  With no more August trades, the Sox might want to add depth just in case of injury at catcher.

Unless they’re fine with Zavala, who is there for them without taking up a 40 man spot…

This has been my point! The system is very light at that position. After Wong, it's pretty scary. 

Wong still has an option year available as well. 

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not hearing much "Fire Cora" and "Fire Brez" talk.

Hmmmm....

TYPM would like a word about Cora...

[Nick]

"Devers, a former standout with the Red Sox, is currently dealing with a disk issue in his lower back, as announced by Giants manager Bob Melvin. He has managed to stay in the lineup, taking the designated hitter spot during Saturday’s thrilling 8-7 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers."

I am glad he is gone but I don't wish anyone injury. I have always wondered if his violent swing that required flexibility over time may come back to haunt him. I just feel we dodged a bullet with Devers from many perspectives.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Instead of upgrading Wong, maybe the Sox need a catcher with an option left.  They have only Wong and Narvaez on the 40 man roster and only Seby Zavala with any MLB experience in the minors, where he’s not exactly dazzling.  With no more August trades, the Sox might want to add depth just in case of injury at catcher.

 

Unless they’re fine with Zavala, who is there for them without taking up a 40 man spot…

You can still add DFA'd catchers after the deadline, but yes, they may be no better than Zavala.

I'm fine with adding a catcher to the 40 that costs us very little and who has an option. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

TYPM would like a word about Cora...

Not gonna even bother reading his posts, anymore. It's gibberish, and no that's not an insult, nor have your statements been.

It's impossible for someone to think the exact opposite from me on every single issue, but somehow the impossible appeared at our doorstep.

[moonslav59]

I'm now thinking we have a better shot at Mitch Keller than Joe Ryan. Ryan has been better, recently, but Keller looks better in some areas over the last 3-5 years.

2024-2025 (57 pitchers have 240 IP or more)

fWAR

T3. Crochet 8.9

5. Skenes 8.3 (23 y/o & 4 yrs of control)

9. Valdez 6.7 (FA after '25) turns 32 in NOV

10. Cease 6.6 (FA after '25) turns 30 in DEC

14. Ryan 5.7 (29 years old & 3 arb years left)

T22. Keller 4.8 (same as Pivetta) 29 years old & 3 more yrs of control at $15.4M AAV

 

[moonslav59]

Are we being too harsh on Campbell?

True, he sucks on D at 2B, and that likely won't change quickly. He may end up in LF or 1B.

True, he slumped badly, after a very nice start to his rookie year.

True, he has not lit up AAA, after his demotion. But, should we we roast him alive over 205 PAs after his first 14 games? .581 OPS

Is it the 144 PA sample size after 28 games? .451.

He hit .601 in his last 22 games (73 PAs) He's hit .697 in AAA over 19 games.

He seems to be high on some people's "to trade list."

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm now thinking we have a better shot at Mitch Keller than Joe Ryan. Ryan has been better, recently, but Keller looks better in some areas over the last 3-5 years.

Since '21, Ryan has a better k rate, bb rate, ERA, xFIP, WHIP, xBA, xSLG, whiffs, chase rate. Aside from Keller's better barrel rate and better health, what else has he been better at? I'm not noticing it at first glance.

[Kimmi]

18 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

He has a plus DWAR this year because he worked very hard on his posture, framing, and defensive skills in the past offseason.   I pretty sure the Sox could have traded for a backup catcher at almost any point this season and chose not to.  

 

Baseball Prospectus has Wong ranked 23rd defensively out of 71 catchers who have caught at least 100 innings.  He has a Catcher Defense Added of 1.1 runs, which is pretty good considering his lack of playing time.  Additionally, you can't discount Wong's familiarity with the staff.

IMO, there would be little to no upgrade in replacing our backup catcher.

[Kimmi]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

"Devers, a former standout with the Red Sox, is currently dealing with a disk issue in his lower back, as announced by Giants manager Bob Melvin. He has managed to stay in the lineup, taking the designated hitter spot during Saturday’s thrilling 8-7 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers."

I am glad he is gone but I don't wish anyone injury. I have always wondered if his violent swing that required flexibility over time may come back to haunt him. I just feel we dodged a bullet with Devers from many perspectives.

I don't wish injury on Devers.  I will not be rooting for him to do well when playing, but I do wish him good health.  Like you, I think we dodged a bullet by trading him.

I guess we won't be seeing Devers playing 1B any time soon.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Since '21, Ryan has a better k rate, bb rate, ERA, xFIP, WHIP, xBA, xSLG, whiffs, chase rate. Aside from Keller's better barrel rate and better health, what else has he been better at? I'm not noticing it at first glance.

I guess I messed up.

491 to 406 IP since 2023 is one thing.

They are tied in fWAR since '23.

That's about it.

[moonslav59]

There is a report the Yanks are looking at a Keller trade.

[moonslav59]

It took 5+ years to build up the everyday portion of our roster and farm system, but it sure looks strong and deep.

It is a solid and young core with a healthy splash of vets to keep the kids in line and focused.

The OF is the envy of every ML team. 6 yrs of Rafaela, 4 Abreu and 3 Duran (all inexpensive.) Refsnyder offers nice veteran influence and excellent play v lefties. Anthony is the #1 prospect in MLB, and we have Yoshida as an emergency LF'er and Campbell and Gracia in AAA. WOW!

We have a pre-arb, ROY candidate at catcher and an improved defensive back-up catcher w 3 arbs left. Jo Garcia is far away, but might be a plus.

Our china doll 1Bman has great offensive potential and 3 arbs left, and this is one area we have little to no depth, except a nice platoon guy in Romy w 3 arbs, too. Maybe Tibbs or Justin Gonzalez can play 1B, way down the road.

We may finally have found our 2Bman after a 6+ year struggle with pre-arb Mayer- another top prospect in the nation. Back-ups may look sketchy, but there are many, including the option of Story at 2B, someday and Mayer or Arias at SS.

Story at SS for 2 years with an option seems to be looking good, right now, and we have some good young depth.

Bregman id the leader of the team, but may bolt after this year. Forcing Mayer to 3B until Romero or Arias is ready is not a good idea. This is the area our system failed, along with 1B, but that's kinda on the Devers mess up, too.

DH has Yoshida for 2 more years. Not good, but there still is some hope. Ref and Romy can offer a platoon option, or we can move Casas or an OF'er to DH, if we need to or find a solid 1B option.

On the other side: pitching, we have added a ton of young arms over the past 2 seasons, via draft, trades, signings and IFA. We may have to trade some pitching prospects or vets just to make room for all the college draft picks, Rule 5 pitchers and IL returning pitchers. We'll need to add some quality arms, until the kids are ready, but that farm outlook is better than it's been in a very long time.

Crochet for 6 is sweet! Bello for 5 is very nice. Gio & Sandoval have an option or one more year. Houck has 2 and Crawford 3. Whitlock 1 and Slaten 4. Hicks 2 and Harrison 4. Chapman will be a big loss, but losing Buehler at the same time might give us the money flex to bring him back or add another top closer by signing. Replacing Wilson may be hard, but we have a long list of pitching options for 2026 and beyond. Dobbins & Fitts. Criswell & Bernardino. Weissert & Wink. Murphy, Kelly & Guerrero plus more.

I'm pumped up, but I know things can turn south in a minute. 10 days ago, I was thinking we should be sellers, and this is close to the same team on the field.

 

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Story at SS for 2 years with an option seems to be looking good, right now, and we have some good young depth.

Bregman id the leader of the team, but may bolt after this year. Forcing Mayer to 3B until Romero or Arias is ready is not a good idea. This is the area our system failed, along with 1B, but that's kinda on the Devers mess up, too.

 

I do not think that our farm system failed! I think first and third were neglected by hang’em Chaim’s intense focus on middle infielders! 
 

if yorke had developed, he would be the starting 2B, but unfortunately for us, yorke never developed into the player hang’em Chaim thought he was. This caused bres-slow to rush Campbell to Boston, after a putrid spring and in hindsight that was a poor decision!!!  
 

sadly, I think all 6 position players we took in the 2025 draft were middle infielders or outfielders!!!!  

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I do not think that our farm system failed! I think first and third were neglected by hang’em Chaim’s intense focus on middle infielders! 
 

if yorke had developed, he would be the starting 2B, but unfortunately for us, yorke never developed into the player hang’em Chaim thought he was. This caused bres-slow to rush Campbell to Boston, after a putrid spring and in hindsight that was a poor decision!!!  
 

sadly, I think all 6 position players we took in the 2025 draft were middle infielders or outfielders!!!!  

No, the farm did not fail, but the system, which included GM choices on corner IF and catcher.

They traded Teel, but I love that trade.

They traded Meidroth, who none of us were sure would be a ML level corner IF'er, and I love that trade.

Up to Brez, Bloom did a damn good job building up the everyday portion of of the system, from top to bottom. Being forced to trade away or let go almost every star did not help with the fans, but he quietly built a solid foundation for Brez.

Brez came along and rightfully noticed and quickly addressed the need for balancing the system towards better pitching. His very first moves were Fitts, Weissert & Judice for Dugo and Urias for I Campbell. The stage was set in motion, immediately. Shortly afterwards, he traded for Slaten (and an everyday player named O'Neill.) Of course, the Sale traded ended 2023's moves.

I'm very excited about what Brez has done, so far. He's made a few mistakes, some in hindsight, IMO, but his general focus has been to improve the pitching and sometimes by trading away everyday assets. He may have one more big one in mind.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez came along and rightfully noticed and quickly addressed the need for balancing the system towards better pitching.

I don't think it's been about balancing pitching and hitting, it's just been an all out push towards pitching. Two straight drafts and only 12 hitters were picked since Breslow has been here. That's 70% of all picks being pitchers. Active rosters up and down the minors are still 50/50 pitchers and hitters. At some point, overly focusing on pitchers is going to come back and bite them. Pitchers are more likely to get injured. Hitters are a safer bet to retain their value as tradeable assets and advance in the system. I like that they are trying to fix the blind spot Bloom had with pitching, but I'm not sure they are going about it in the right manner. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think it's been about balancing pitching and hitting, it's just been an all out push towards pitching. Two straight drafts and only 12 hitters were picked since Breslow has been here. That's 70% of all picks being pitchers. Active rosters up and down the minors are still 50/50 pitchers and hitters. At some point, overly focusing on pitchers is going to come back and bite them. Pitchers are more likely to get injured. Hitters are a safer bet to retain their value as tradeable assets and advance in the system. I like that they are trying to fix the blind spot Bloom had with pitching, but I'm not sure they are going about it in the right manner. 

I totally agree with everything here, but when you draft more pitchers, you draft less hitters.

The IFA bonus pool is fixed, and we've used a larger percent on pitching than previous years.

Most of our bigger trades have been hitters for pitchers. (Grissom & O'Neill are the biggest exceptions I can think of.)

He did sign Bregman.

[Soxlover]

When your farm is so heavily tilted towards hitters, drafting 70% pitchers is “balancing it.” 
 

the idea would be to go 50-50 once it’s balanced.

[Bellhorn04]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Most of our bigger trades have been hitters for pitchers. (Grissom & O'Neill are the biggest exceptions I can think of.)

The Quinn Priester trade might end up looking like a big one.

He pitched 6 scoreless against the Dodgers last night.  3 hits, 10 Ks, 0 BBs. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Quinn Priester trade might end up looking like a big one.

He pitched 6 scoreless against the Dodgers last night.  3 hits, 10 Ks, 0 BBs. 

Yes, maybe. He's been a nice innings eater, too.

He did slump a little after his first 3 starts, but 3.86 w and FIP or 4.21 between those 3 starts and his last one would have looked very. (14 game stretch.)

It is weird that he liked the guy enough to trade for him, then traded him away. Maybe Holobetz jumps up, soon. BTW, Y Rod hit a game winning HR, last night.

Now, we look to trade better prospects for pitching. Oh well.

[Duran Is The Man]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Quinn Priester trade might end up looking like a big one.

He pitched 6 scoreless against the Dodgers last night.  3 hits, 10 Ks, 0 BBs. 

yeah, we could sure use a guy like that. stupid f***ing trade by Breslow. i really this his people have no f***ing clue on how to evaluate good pitching talent. hey, lets trade Quinn Priester and keep Zach Kelly.

[Larry Cook]

52 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

When your farm is so heavily tilted towards hitters, drafting 70% pitchers is “balancing it.” 
 

the idea would be to go 50-50 once it’s balanced.

With Valera and Peaz going to the 60 dl, and the 60 day dl is already almost full with mostly pitchers, I think I see why hang’em Chaim was stockpiling only bats on our system!!!  
pitching is fragile and needing almost 2 years to recover from UCl surgery is brutal on a farm system 

But I do think bres-slow needs to balance his drafting going forward!!   Or soon we will be position player deficient!! (Think our current catching situation in the minors! 
 

although signing quality free agent hitters is easier than quality free agent pitchers