A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

Last season, we finished 81-81, 15th in everyday player fWAR and 11th in Pitching fWAR. We were 26th in Defense.

Here are my projections for 2025:

Starting Pitchers: (11th in 2024 at 12.0 fWAR) The additions of Crochet and Buehler look very nice. We lost Pivetta but get Giolito back from injury. Houck, Bello and Crawford could give us a nice rotation from top to bottom. The SP'er depth beyond these top 6 looks better than anytime I can remember: Fitts, Priester, Newcomb, Criswell, Dobbins, Fulmer and eventually Sandoval. I project a 14.5 fWAR and 5th place (1st or 2nd in the AL)

Relief Pitchers: (14th in 2014 at 3.6) We lost Jansen & Martin, but also some real scrubs. We added Chapman, Wilson and essentially, Hendriks. Whitlock returns to the pen and Slaten looks to build off a nice rookie year. We have a ton of depth in the pen and can use some of our SP'er depth in the pen, as well. Some might say deep in mediocrity, and I can't really argue against that notion, but some of our pen arms have some real promise or have shown recent success. I'm going with a slightly worse pen at 3.5 nad 15th place.

Catchers: (22nd in '24 at 1.8)I really like Narvaez, especially his promise on D. I'm about ready to give up on Wong's D, and his decent offense in '24 looked more like a fluke than anything repeatable. I'm projecting we don't get any better, here. Our D may improve, but the O will get worse than the .723 OPS in '24 (8th in MLB.) I project a 1.7 fWAR and 24th place.

First Base: (20th at 0.6) Here is where we have a great chance to jump in the rankings. 1B was a total mess, once Casas went down. Dom Smith was able to steady it a bit, but the position was pretty bad. It comes down to Casas staying healthy, which is a reoccuring theme for this team, but I'm hopeful he does. Projection for 2025: 2.5 fWAR and 6th place.

Second Base: (30th at -2.3 fWAR) As much as I have talked about how DHam & Romy stabilizing the position for a couple months, the second base position was downright horrific in 2024. It sucked in '23, too, and other than a few brief moments, when Story and Kike played the position, it has been awful for over 5 seasons. That being said, we have some promising choices at 2B for the '25 season. Despite Campbell's struggles in ST'ing, he still offers more hope and promise than anyone sle has in years. The talk of Mayer or Story playing 2B could come into play, at some point, and I'm still clinging to the notion that a DHam-Romy platoon could be a decent idea, especially when mediocrity at 2B would be a huge boost over worst in MLB. I'm projecting a big gaine at 2B, but even a 0.0 fWAR would be a 2.3 gain! I'm going with a 2.0 fWAR at 2B and 15th place- a jump of 15 slots.

Short Stop: (15th at 3.2) Somehow, we managed to finish middle of the pack in '24, despite the loss of Story. Rafaela was able to stabilize the position, but is not expected to play SS in 2024. It will come down to two injury prone players: Story and Mayer- both having pretty nice springs. It's a hard position to project, and I'm going with staying about the same, but with big upside: 3.3 fWAR and 15th place, again.

Third Base: (14th at 2.5) Bregman helped HOU have the 5th best fWAR at 3B, and a lot had to do with his defense. I expect our D at 3B to greatly improve, while the O gets worse. I project a 4.0 fWAR and 4th place- a significant jump.

Outfield: (2nd at 13.0) I'm not sure where everyone will play and even who will play or platoon, so I'm doing the OF as a whole. The defensive alignment of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF might be the best left-to-right starting OF defense in Red Sox history. Having Anthony knocking on the door offers more hope. Refsnyder has been a top 15 batter vs LHPs, which offers help in an area where all 3 OF'ers struggle: batting vs lefties. Yoshida may suck on D, but he could be a plus on offense, while playing short corner OF. With the #1 Yankee OF losing Soto, I'm projecting we finish with the best OF fWAR in MLB at 13.5. (Maybe, Duran 5.5, Abreu 3.0,  Rafaela 2.0 and Anthony + Ref at 3.0 combined.)

Designated Hitter: (15th at 0.6) Here is another position, where we may see a near 15 place rank improvement, as Devers looks to be the FT DH. With Yoshida and Ref in reserve, it's hard to see a better layout, except Ohtani at DH 4 out of 5 days w LAD. I project 2nd place and a 5.0 fWAR at DH.

31.5 in my everyday total. That would have finished 5th in 2024, so I'm going 5th or 6th in 2025. An 18.0 total pitching fWAR projection would have placed 6th in 2024. I'm projecting 7th in 2025. Our defense should be much better, maybe 14th to 16th best/worst.

I'm going with a 90-72 record and a WC slot, but with the injuries to the Yanks, maybe we can win the division.

 

Link to Part I: 

 

[moonslav59]

Ottavino released by Sox. Some players being cut loose by other teams:

Mitch Haniger SEA
Brandon Drury CWS

Ross Stripling & Luke Maile KCR

Dane Dunning TEX

[moonslav59]

Players on the Sox that were on the 2021 team:

Devers, Duran (33 gms), Houck, Whitlock

AAA in '21: Crawford, Wink, Casas, Wong

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Ottavino released by Sox. Some players being cut loose by other teams:

Mitch Haniger SEA
Brandon Drury CWS

Ross Stripling & Luke Maile KCR

Dane Dunning TEX

I wish Seattle has done the Bryce miller and haniger trade for teel, yoshida, elmer and winkleman 

[notin]

36 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I wish Seattle has done the Bryce miller and haniger trade for teel, yoshida, elmer and winkleman 

Bryce Miller is the Seattle pitch id be least interested in.  I prefer using Teel to get Crochet…

[Larry Cook]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Bryce Miller is the Seattle pitch id be least interested in.  I prefer using Teel to get Crochet…

No reason we could not have done both trades. 

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I wish Seattle has done the Bryce miller and haniger trade for teel, yoshida, elmer and winkleman 

What a horrible trade proposal from a Seattle perspective.

The Mariners would be highly unlikely to trade Bryce Miller and take on salary. Seattle already has three years of baseball's top catcher and its own Top 10 catching prospect.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Bryce Miller is the Seattle pitch id be least interested in.  I prefer using Teel to get Crochet…

For sure- Crochet is a stud. Sox HAVE to extend him at whatever it costs.

[Bellhorn04]

I find this a very difficult season to prognosticate.  If I was forced to make a prediction I would go 86-76.  

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

No reason we could not have done both trades. 

Trading Teel twice might be nixed by MLB.

[Larry Cook]

the 2025 starting rotation of:

Crochet

houck 

beulher

fitts 

newcomb 

 

with bello, Giolito and Crawford on the DL! 
 

 The rotation depth has greatly improved from last year!!! Stronger at the top end too!!!!

I think bres-slow did a great job this offseason with the rotation!!!!

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

the 2025 starting rotation of:

Crochet

houck 

beulher

fitts 

newcomb 

 

with bello, Giolito and Crawford on the DL! 
 

 The rotation depth has greatly improved from last year!!! Stronger at the top end too!!!!

I think bres-slow did a great job this offseason with the rotation!!!!

3 of last year's starters on the IL, plus Sandoval. Considering that, this rotation is pretty decent.

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

3 of last year's starters on the IL, plus Sandoval. Considering that, this rotation is pretty decent.

I wonder if Sandoval can return in 2025??? 
huge plus if he can help in the bullpen too 

[Larry Cook]

Infield defense (in theory) should also be improved our last year!!! 
devers (aka defensive dumpster fire) is the DH and Bergman is a gold glove third baseman 

story is a year older, but should be at least average at SS. 
 

campbell/hamilton should be better than Hamilton/valdez or Grissom at 2B. 
 

Casas is still a dumpster fire defensively at first base, but let’s hope he improves to below average defensively 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Craig Breslow is playing with fire as Red Sox blow chance for Garrett Crochet extension

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I wonder if Sandoval can return in 2025??? 
huge plus if he can help in the bullpen too 

We've asked the same about Paxton and others in previous years. I wouldn't count on it!

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Craig Breslow is playing with fire as Red Sox blow chance for Garrett Crochet extension

He's not the one controlling the budget. 

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I wonder if Sandoval can return in 2025??? 
huge plus if he can help in the bullpen too 

Word is he will, but we heard the same about Paxton & Hendriks.

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Infield defense (in theory) should also be improved our last year!!! 
devers (aka defensive dumpster fire) is the DH and Bergman is a gold glove third baseman 

story is a year older, but should be at least average at SS. 
 

campbell/hamilton should be better than Hamilton/valdez or Grissom at 2B. 
 

Casas is still a dumpster fire defensively at first base, but let’s hope he improves to below average defensively 

With Rafaela no longer needed at SS and 2B, the OF defense should be better, too- assuming Rafaela plays FT.

If Anthony gets the call, he's not bad. He's better than Refsnyder, worse than Rafaela and maybe not as good as Abreu.

[moonslav59]

I'm assuming Campbell takes a 40 man roster slot from a pitcher (Perales, Murphy or Penrod) who will be placed on the 60 Day IL. Maybe, we wait to add anyone else for the other 2.

Here is the soxprospects.com's projected 26 man opening day roster.

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Fitts, Newcomb

Chapman, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Criswell, Wilson, Bernardino, Kelly

Wong, Casas, Campbell, Bregman, Story, Duran, Rafaela, Abrey, Devers

Narvaez, DHam, Romy, Refsnyder

IL: Crawford, Giolito, Bello, Yoshida, Perales (to 60?) Murphy (to 60?) Penrod (to 60?)

40 Man on the farm:

Priester, Winckowski, Dobbins, Weissert, Guerrero, Grissom, Sogard, Jh Garcia

Players that may be added, soon:

Mayer, Anthony, Fulmer, Thompson, Eaton, Toro, Moore, Adams

[mvp 78]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Last season, we finished 81-81, 15th in everyday player fWAR and 11th in Pitching fWAR. We were 26th in Defense.

Here are my projections for 2025:

Starting Pitchers: I project a 14.5 fWAR and 5th place (1st or 2nd in the AL)

Relief Pitchers: I'm going with a slightly worse pen at 3.5 nad 15th place.

Catchers: I project a 1.7 fWAR and 24th place.

First Base: Projection for 2025: 2.5 fWAR and 6th place.

Second Base: I'm projecting a big gaine at 2B, but even a 0.0 fWAR would be a 2.3 gain! I'm going with a 2.0 fWAR at 2B and 15th place- a jump of 15 slots.

Short Stop: It's a hard position to project, and I'm going with staying about the same, but with big upside: 3.3 fWAR and 15th place, again.

Third Base: I project a 4.0 fWAR and 4th place- a significant jump.

Outfield: I'm projecting we finish with the best OF fWAR in MLB at 13.5. 

Designated Hitter:  I project 2nd place and a 5.0 fWAR at DH.

I'm going with a 90-72 record and a WC slot, but with the injuries to the Yanks, maybe we can win the division.

C - 16th place 

1B - 7th place

2B - 18th place

SS - 10th place

3B - 7th place

OF - 5th place

DH - 6th place

SP - 5th place

RP - 9th place

88 - 74 

[mvp 78]

My wife asked me if we should go to a Rays game this year when the Sox are in town. LOL

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My wife asked me if we should go to a Rays game this year when the Sox are in town. LOL

It's always nice to see pure class!

[moonslav59]

Yanks place Gil on the 60 and sign Ryan Yarbrough.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

moon: "The defensive alignment of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF might be the best left-to-right starting OF defense in Red Sox history. Having Anthony knocking on the door offers more hope."

Not a weak claim, based on Gold Glove consideration and dWAR. Anthony should be out there at some point this season, but it remains to be seen if his skills will raise or drop this unit. 

Other contenders in modern times: 

From the 2018 title: Benintendi-Bradley-Betts. All three nominated for GGs that year, which turned out to be the only time JBJ actually won, to team with four-timer Mookie (both were joined by Beni in '21). 

For an entire outfield core, the 1975 unit: Evans (steadiest), Lynn (most spectacular) and Yaz (1B in season, back to LF for the playoffs, where he was clutch). Back-ups with good D: Rick Miller and Juan Beniquez. Lynn was the lone Sox player honored with Gold, but in a two-year span -- '77 and '78 -- five OFs from the '75 AL champs won GGs: Yaz and Beniquez (on Texas) in '77; Lynn, Evans and Miller (Angels) in '78.

The '75 Sox also had eventual Gold Glovers at C, Fisk, SS, Burleson, and 1B, Cooper (after he was traded for Boomer Scott, who once had GG metabolism in his first stint in baked Beantown).

So actually, I need to change my name: 8GoldGloves,75.

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

moon: "The defensive alignment of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF might be the best left-to-right starting OF defense in Red Sox history. Having Anthony knocking on the door offers more hope."

Not a weak claim, based on Gold Glove consideration and dWAR. Anthony should be out there at some point this season, but it remains to be seen if his skills will raise or drop this unit. 

Other contenders in modern times: 

From the 2018 title: Benintendi-Bradley-Betts. All three nominated for GGs that year, which turned out to be the only time JBJ actually won, to team with four-timer Mookie (both were joined by Beni in '21). 

For an entire outfield core, the 1975 unit: Evans (steadiest), Lynn (most spectacular) and Yaz (1B in season, back to LF for the playoffs, where he was clutch). Back-ups with good D: Rick Miller and Juan Beniquez. Lynn was the lone Sox player honored with Gold, but in a two-year span -- '77 and '78 -- five OFs from the '75 AL champs won GGs: Yaz and Beniquez (on Texas) in '77; Lynn, Evans and Miller (Angels) in '78.

The '75 Sox also had eventual Gold Glovers at C, Fisk, SS, Burleson, and 1B, Cooper (after he was traded for Boomer Scott, who once had GG metabolism in his first stint in baked Beantown).

So actually, I need to change my name: 8GoldGloves,75.

 

Good points. The reason I said "starting OF" was Yaz in '75 was not really the "starting" LF'er.  The back-ups were excellent defenders, too.

I did think of the 2018 OF, and I could see calling them as good or even better, but I like this one more.

Duran> Beni

Rafaela can be better than JBJ, but it is not proven, yet.

Betts> Abreu

[Bellhorn04]

The 2007 team had 3 very good outfielders in Crisp, Ellsbury and Drew, but they only all played together in late inning alignments.

[vegasbob]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm assuming Campbell takes a 40 man roster slot from a pitcher (Perales, Murphy or Penrod) who will be placed on the 60 Day IL. Maybe, we wait to add anyone else for the other 2.

Here is the soxprospects.com's projected 26 man opening day roster.

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Fitts, Newcomb

Chapman, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Criswell, Wilson, Bernardino, Kelly

Wong, Casas, Campbell, Bregman, Story, Duran, Rafaela, Abrey, Devers

Narvaez, DHam, Romy, Refsnyder

IL: Crawford, Giolito, Bello, Yoshida, Perales (to 60?) Murphy (to 60?) Penrod (to 60?)

40 Man on the farm:

Priester, Winckowski, Dobbins, Weissert, Guerrero, Grissom, Sogard, Jh Garcia

Players that may be added, soon:

Mayer, Anthony, Fulmer, Thompson, Eaton, Toro, Moore, Adams

WooSox may be a team to watch.  Lots of experienc4e over there now. 

The real point is that over the past few unproductive years in Boston results, the FO has, in fact, built depth in all areas.  Improvements via the draft at Catcher and 1B would further solidify this organization.   Maybe 2 more pitchers  would help.   

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

WooSox may be a team to watch.  Lots of experienc4e over there now. 

The real point is that over the past few unproductive years in Boston results, the FO has, in fact, built depth in all areas.  Improvements via the draft at Catcher and 1B would further solidify this organization.   Maybe 2 more pitchers  would help.   

Agreed, although it will be a bit diluted due to all the IL players from the big club:

Sandoval, Penrod, Murphy, Perales (60 Day or possible 60 Day to come)

Giolito, Crawford, Bello, Yoshida (15 Day & 10 Day or longer w Rehabs)

That's 5 or 6 guys from the 26 that took talent from AAA (Fitts, Priester, Kelly, but I'm not sure who "took" Yoshida's slot. Romy?)

soxprospects.com has this for the AAA opening day roster:

Priester, Dobbins, Winck, Davis, Stock, Drohan

Guerrero, Weissert, Mata, Adams, Fulmer, Moore, Mills, I Campbell, Van Belle, Adames (ICoffey on IL)

Sabol, Zavala, Kolzsvary

Hickey, Grissom, Toro, Mayer, Anthony, Eaton, Thompson, Sogard, McDonough, Sikes

I find the AA rotation very intriguing: Sandlin, Early, Paez, Monegro, Wehunt, Ubersting!

 

[Randy Red Sox]

13 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Craig Breslow is playing with fire as Red Sox blow chance for Garrett Crochet extension

this is the first in several years I have been looking forward to a Red Sox season as I believe the Sox should be AL East favourites but if this team lets Crochet leave after 2 years i will never again be a Red Sox fan. the longer this goes on the higher the price goes.