Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Hugh2]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t.

 

If you asked me to predict the 2025 Red Sox pitching staff, I’d   Tell you the starters will be Houck, Crawford, Bello, Giolito and either Fitts or Priester.

Id predict the bullpen to have Hendriks, Slaten, Winckowski, Whitlock, Kelly, Criswell, Fulmer, and Penrod

 

i think Breslow might have already done his heavy lifting…

It could be some more of the same old same old and be a "Kluber like, or Giolito like" signing, but I can almost gurantee you that is not their rotation and they add a starter or two this offseason. 

[Hugh2]

26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Anyone can be traded in the right deal" posts are the absolute worst.  I would rather read 10 posts by Fred Lynn about Rafaela's poor strike zone recognition than one of them.

I might have to start deleting such posts, in a shameless abuse of my new powers as moderator.  OK, I'm kidding about that part. 😎  

What if I told you that no one is tradeable in the absence of sufficient value?

 

And they made you moderator? I guess I have to start being nice to you now. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What if I told you that no one is tradeable in the absence of sufficient value?

 

And they made you moderator? I guess I have to start being nice to you now. 

I'll undelete said posts. Trade everyone. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is a look at the 2023 Season Ending Rosters:

Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Houck, Crawford (IL Paxton)

Jansen, (IL Martin,) Wink, Whitlock, Bernardino, Schreiber, Llovera, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson (IL Joely)

Wong & McGuire

Turner (IL Casas) Dalbec

EValdez (IL Urias) Reyes

Devers

Story

Abreu, Refsnyder

Duvall, Rafaela

Verdugo

Yoshida

AAA: SP: Drohan, Bearclaw, Van Belle, Gambrell, Walter, Rio Gomez (IL Santos), RP: Ort, Mata, Weiss, Jacques, Garza, Gillaspie, Politi, Booser, F German, R Fernandez, Hagenman, Mosqueda, Shugart, Nail           C: Ro Hernandez, Caleb Hamilton, 1B: Kavadas, 2B: McDonough, 3B: Sogard, SS: Koss, LF: Dearden, CF Crook, RF: C Rosier, DH: Scott

AA "Highlights: SP Wikelman, Dob bins, I Coffey, Liu/ RP: Hoppe, Troye, Zef/ C Teel/ 1B Jordan/ 2B Yorke/ 3B: M Lugo/ SS Meidroth/ OF: Anthony & Sikes/ DH: Hickey

WOW! What a changeover!

 

I see no WOW, other than maybe the deletion of the 2024 NL Cy Young winner.

I see plenty of churn at the margins and not much needle-moving.

The only significant improvements we had were from Houck, Crawford and Duran getting better.

 

[Old Red]

Everything will be spelled out for everyone next week at the year end press conference when Sam will do his spin, and grin' and Cora will say his usual we’ve got to do better, and give his plan on how to make the D better. Brez The Prez just coming down from his fabulous work at the trade deadline will say he’s still evaluating. Maybe even Tom will say a few words.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Hey if you think the Sox should only spend on pitching, specifically a young, cost-controlled starter, Ohtani has very little starter left in him and his costs are out of control…

i only mentioned him as an example.  he is unavailable anyway but keep poking the bear

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Also getting back Giolito and Whitlock.

 

Dealing an OF is very dependent on how quickly they promote Anthony…

I mentioned Gio, but not Whitlock.

Gio may not be ready by opening day. 

We lose...

Pivetta 139 IP (4th most by 40 IP over Criswell)

Jansen 55 IP- almost all high leverage

Martin 41 IP - also almost all high leverage

35 IP from Garcia, Sims and Paxton and 52 from Anderson.

There is room on the 13 for Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer, as well as at least 2 major additions. We have enough guys with options for there to be no 26 man roster crunch. We need AAA pitching depth, so adding 2-3 more ML roster pitchers accomplishes that by attrition.

The opening day 13 pitchers could (not will) look like this:

SP1. Houck

SP2. __ Add__

SP3. Bello

SP4. Crawford

SP5. Fitts/Priester (replaced by Gio when healthy)

SP6/Long Relief (RP4 & 5): Criswell & Whitlock

Closer: Hendriks

Set-Up: __Add__

Set-Up: Slaten

RP6. Fulmer

RP7. Winckowski

RP8/AAA depth: Bernardino/Penrod/Fitts/Priester/Guerrero/Weissert/ ICampbell/Kelly/Booser

AAA SP depth: (Fitts and or Priester) Dobbins, Gambrell, I Coffey, Wikelman, Drohan and maybe Sandlin

 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I see no WOW, other than maybe the deletion of the 2024 NL Cy Young winner.

I see plenty of churn at the margins and not much needle-moving.

The only significant improvements we had were from Houck, Crawford and Duran getting better.

 

The Wow was just how bad all of the top 3 levels looked and how much turnover, much via promotions from lower farm levels, occurred under Brez in just 10 months.

Agreed, the biggest WOW was losing Sale. Second biggest was getting one year of Gio, not 2.

I do think some overlook the O'Neill and Dugo trades. We basically traded 1 year of a problem-child Dugo plus two fringy RP'ers for O'Neill, Fitts, Weissert and Judice. Maybe not WOW, but pretty damn good.

The Slaten deal looks very good/promising.

The I Campbell and Sandlin deals are pending.

The Criswell depth signing looks way better than the $20M Bloom spent on Kluber and Richards and maybe equals the $10M spent on Paxton, or the $7M spent on Wacha or the $5M spent on Hill.

Given the budget he had, there were not many options. Some other ones, like signing Monty were good no's by Brez.

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Wow was just how bad all of the top 3 levels looked and how much turnover, much via promotions from lower farm levels, occurred under Brez in just 10 months.

Agreed, the biggest WOW was losing Sale. Second biggest was getting one year of Gio, not 2.

I do think some overlook the O'Neill and Dugo trades. We basically traded 1 year of a problem-child Dugo plus two fringy RP'ers for O'Neill, Fitts, Weissert and Judice. Maybe not WOW, but pretty damn good.

Yeah, but we only have O'Neill for one year and he'll be much more costly to retain.  I just can't get excited about a move that benefited us for one season in which we miss the playoffs.

Getting those pitchers for Verdugo could definitely be a big plus, credit to Breslow for that one.    

[Hugh2]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Everything will be spelled out for everyone next week at the year end press conference when Sam will do his spin, and grin' and Cora will say his usual we’ve got to do better, and give his plan on how to make the D better. Brez The Prez just coming down from his fabulous work at the trade deadline will say he’s still evaluating. Maybe even Tom will say a few words.

As long as someone starts a "Lets go Red Sox, Let's go Red Sox" chant all is well in the world

[notin]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I mentioned Gio, but not Whitlock.

Gio may not be ready by opening day. 

We lose...

Pivetta 139 IP (4th most by 40 IP over Criswell)

Jansen 55 IP- almost all high leverage

Martin 41 IP - also almost all high leverage

35 IP from Garcia, Sims and Paxton and 52 from Anderson.

There is room on the 13 for Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer, as well as at least 2 major additions. We have enough guys with options for there to be no 26 man roster crunch. We need AAA pitching depth, so adding 2-3 more ML roster pitchers accomplishes that by attrition.

The opening day 13 pitchers could (not will) look like this:

SP1. Houck

SP2. __ Add__

SP3. Bello

SP4. Crawford

SP5. Fitts/Priester (replaced by Gio when healthy)

SP6/Long Relief (RP4 & 5): Criswell & Whitlock

Closer: Hendriks

Set-Up: __Add__

Set-Up: Slaten

RP6. Fulmer

RP7. Winckowski

RP8/AAA depth: Bernardino/Penrod/Fitts/Priester/Guerrero/Weissert/ ICampbell/Kelly/Booser

AAA SP depth: (Fitts and or Priester) Dobbins, Gambrell, I Coffey, Wikelman, Drohan and maybe Sandlin

 

The Sox got 0 IP from Giolito and almost made the postseason.  There’s a good chance they still view him as a missing piece, right or wrong as that might be.

 

Id like them to add a starter, and preferably the best one they can get for a package of Montgomery and Arias.  They might view Campbell as a good trade piece instead.  Who knows?  But I am not so sure it happens.  Apparently they think Fitts might be a starter.  They did acquire Priester for a reason that was clearly not 2024 postseason run. It’s possible they added their starter already.  Heck, maybe a post-TJ Fulmer is a guy they think can recapture his ROY form.

 

I also think this would be a mistake.  If you ignore their occasional use of openers, the Sox have gotten the bulk of their starts from 5 guys, with only 11 starts coming from other SP.  (4 from Whitlock. 3 each from Paxton and Fitts.  1 from Chase Anderson.)  Houck, Crawford and Bello have made 90 of 96 possible starts.  They have had a run of health from those 3 that cannot and should not be counted on going forward.  I think there is a big, big need for more SP.

 

But will anyone actually act on it? There was a big need when Giolito went down, too, and what did that give us? Chase Anderson?  I don’t call that action..,

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

I also think this would be a mistake.  If you ignore their occasional use of openers, the Sox have gotten the bulk of their starts from 5 guys, with only 11 starts coming from other SP.  (4 from Whitlock. 3 each from Paxton and Fitts.  1 from Chase Anderson.)  Houck, Crawford and Bello have made 90 of 96 possible starts.  They have had a run of health from those 3 that cannot and should not be counted on going forward.  I think there is a big, big need for more SP.

Exactly.  

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, but we only have O'Neill for one year and he'll be much more costly to retain.  I just can't get excited about a move that benefited us for one season in which we miss the playoffs.

Getting those pitchers for Verdugo could definitely be a big plus, credit to Breslow for that one.    

We had Dugo for one more year, so that part was a push, except that O'Neill did way better than Dugo.

The rest of the trade is Robertson & Santos for Fitts, Weissert and Judice. (Some say we may get a comp pick by offering O'Neill a QO and he turns it down, but I don't see it.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox got 0 IP from Giolito and almost made the postseason.  There’s a good chance they still view him as a missing piece, right or wrong as that might be.

 

Id like them to add a starter, and preferably the best one they can get for a package of Montgomery and Arias.  They might view Campbell as a good trade piece instead.  Who knows?  But I am not so sure it happens.  Apparently they think Fitts might be a starter.  They did acquire Priester for a reason that was clearly not 2024 postseason run. It’s possible they added their starter already.  Heck, maybe a post-TJ Fulmer is a guy they think can recapture his ROY form.

 

I also think this would be a mistake.  If you ignore their occasional use of openers, the Sox have gotten the bulk of their starts from 5 guys, with only 11 starts coming from other SP.  (4 from Whitlock. 3 each from Paxton and Fitts.  1 from Chase Anderson.)  Houck, Crawford and Bello have made 90 of 96 possible starts.  They have had a run of health from those 3 that cannot and should not be counted on going forward.  I think there is a big, big need for more SP.

 

But will anyone actually act on it? There was a big need when Giolito went down, too, and what did that give us? Chase Anderson?  I don’t call that action..,

Nor can this possibility be ignored: The Sox got 0 IP from Giolito and (because of that) almost made the postseason.

But I agree with you that pitchers already acquired will be billed as a big part of the new staff. 

And I predict they'll sign a few more rehabbing reclamation projects who won't be quite ready to break camp next March, but who expect to return by the summer when they "will be better than anyone we can trade for at the deadline."

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox got 0 IP from Giolito and almost made the postseason.  There’s a good chance they still view him as a missing piece, right or wrong as that might be.

 

Id like them to add a starter, and preferably the best one they can get for a package of Montgomery and Arias.  They might view Campbell as a good trade piece instead.  Who knows?  But I am not so sure it happens.  Apparently they think Fitts might be a starter.  They did acquire Priester for a reason that was clearly not 2024 postseason run. It’s possible they added their starter already.  Heck, maybe a post-TJ Fulmer is a guy they think can recapture his ROY form.

 

I also think this would be a mistake.  If you ignore their occasional use of openers, the Sox have gotten the bulk of their starts from 5 guys, with only 11 starts coming from other SP.  (4 from Whitlock. 3 each from Paxton and Fitts.  1 from Chase Anderson.)  Houck, Crawford and Bello have made 90 of 96 possible starts.  They have had a run of health from those 3 that cannot and should not be counted on going forward.  I think there is a big, big need for more SP.

 

But will anyone actually act on it? There was a big need when Giolito went down, too, and what did that give us? Chase Anderson?  I don’t call that action..,

Again, I am not predicting: I am suggesting.

I also do not believe Brez is happy with the 13 man staff as is, even counting on Gio to replace Pivetta, Hendriks to replace Jansen, Whitlock to replace Martin and Fulmer to replace L Garica, Sims and Chase Anderson. While the numbers may add up, the talent level is up for debate, and staying even with the 2024 staff is not a winning strategy or a goal I think Brez would choose. He may be forced to choose, if the budget is harsh.

I don't think he willingly chooses to do rest on his last winter moves, only. I think he is smarter than that. It won't be his choice to do very little.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We had Dugo for one more year, so that part was a push, except that O'Neill did way better than Dugo.

The rest of the trade is Robertson & Santos for Fitts, Weissert and Judice. (Some say we may get a comp pick by offering O'Neill a QO and he turns it down, but I don't see it.)

O'Neill has been OK.  He has a ton of power and that's where most of his value comes from.  He missed a lot of games, he struck out a ton and his defense was surprisingly bad.  It wasn't all good by any means. 

[harmony]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Also getting back Giolito and Whitlock.

 

Dealing an OF is very dependent on how quickly they promote Anthony…

How soon is too soon to promote Roman Anthony?

https://nesn.com/2024/09/how-red-sox-could-benefit-from-roman-anthony-jackson-holliday-connection/

[notin]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Again, I am not predicting: I am suggesting.

I also do not believe Brez is happy with the 13 man staff as is, even counting on Gio to replace Pivetta, Hendriks to replace Jansen, Whitlock to replace Martin and Fulmer to replace L Garica, Sims and Chase Anderson. While the numbers may add up, the talent level is up for debate, and staying even with the 2024 staff is not a winning strategy or a goal I think Brez would choose. He may be forced to choose, if the budget is harsh.

I don't think he willingly chooses to do rest on his last winter moves, only. I think he is smarter than that. It won't be his choice to do very little.

Maybe his idea of handling things smartly involved doing his shopping early and avoiding the Christmas Rush?  Why else would he get Priester in July?  He clearly didn’t do it for August…

[notin]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nor can this possibility be ignored: The Sox got 0 IP from Giolito and (because of that) almost made the postseason.

But I agree with you that pitchers already acquired will be billed as a big part of the new staff. 

And I predict they'll sign a few more rehabbing reclamation projects who won't be quite ready to break camp next March, but who expect to return by the summer when they "will be better than anyone we can trade for at the deadline."

You mean like Atlanta did last offseason?

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe his idea of handling things smartly involved doing his shopping early and avoiding the Christmas Rush?  Why else would he get Priester in July?  He clearly didn’t do it for August…

I think he saw Yorke as a Rule 5 guy who was bottle-necked, and he felt he'd make the deal in July not at roster crunch time in November. It also helped to balance the everyday vs pitcher warp. I do not think it means Priester is handed a slot on the 13 MLB staff.

[Hugh2]

Preister could certainly fight his way into consideration for the rotation, but I think it's blatantly obvious he's a project.  And he was certianly traded for with that in mind. 

[Hugh2]

If there's a "big need" for starting pitching, and there is, because there always is, even when you're good and having pitching there is.  YOu need to aquire it, sign it, draft it, trade for it, and develop it. 

That means many eggs in many baskets.  I expect the Sox to add to the starting pitching depth this offseason.  Actually I don't expect it, I can gurantee it.  

Now, will that depth be at the top of the rotation, or at the bottom? that I can't gurantee.  

I don't think they traded for Preister thinking he would be ready by 2025 opening day, and I suspect even if he pitches well he starts the year in Wocester.  I want the Sox to sign and trade for someone but at the same time, they need MORE deals like Yorke for Priester.  More of it, actually that was the exact kind of deal some of us had been clamoring for for a while "Well you can trade your excess hitting for pitching" that until the never really came to fruition. 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he saw Yorke as a Rule 5 guy who was bottle-necked, and he felt he'd make the deal in July not at roster crunch time in November. It also helped to balance the everyday vs pitcher warp. I do not think it means Priester is handed a slot on the 13 MLB staff.

No.  If it was a trade to avoid a roster crunch, he wouldn’t have dealt Yorke for a player already on the 40 man roster.  That defeats the whole purpose of the trade…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

No.  If it was a trade to avoid a roster crunch, he wouldn’t have dealt Yorke for a player already on the 40 man roster.  That defeats the whole purpose of the trade…

He knew he had to add pitching. There was going to be an everyday player roster crunch in December, or whenever the Rule 5 protectees need to be named.

My guess is Yorke would still have been protected, but due to the middle infield bottle neck and Mayer & Campbell looking better than Yorke, he decided to save someone else from being cut or kept off the 40, so we could have a better pitcher in Priester over someone like Shugart or whoever gets DFA;d this fall.

[notin]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He knew he had to add pitching. There was going to be an everyday player roster crunch in December, or whenever the Rule 5 protectees need to be named.

My guess is Yorke would still have been protected, but due to the middle infield bottle neck and Mayer & Campbell looking better than Yorke, he decided to save someone else from being cut or kept off the 40, so we could have a better pitcher in Priester over someone like Shugart or whoever gets DFA;d this fall.

He could have gotten a non-40 man pitcher for Yorke easily enough.

 

I think he simply liked something about Priester and Pitt asked about Yorke.  But as Priester already has a service time clock in operation, he’s not a long term project.  If he isn’t trade bait this off-season, he will be starting for Boston next year.  The only question is whether or not he does so opening day…

[Randy Red Sox]

10 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nor can this possibility be ignored: The Sox got 0 IP from Giolito and (because of that) almost made the postseason.

But I agree with you that pitchers already acquired will be billed as a big part of the new staff. 

And I predict they'll sign a few more rehabbing reclamation projects who won't be quite ready to break camp next March, but who expect to return by the summer when they "will be better than anyone we can trade for at the deadline."

sounds very familiar

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

He could have gotten a non-40 man pitcher for Yorke easily enough.

 

I think he simply liked something about Priester and Pitt asked about Yorke.  But as Priester already has a service time clock in operation, he’s not a long term project.  If he isn’t trade bait this off-season, he will be starting for Boston next year.  The only question is whether or not he does so opening day…

Yes. I think they felt we already have added enough pitching prospects and needed to try and balance the everyday player glut with the lack of ML ready pitchers.

I'd rather DFA Shugart than Priester, come November.

[sk7326]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Also getting back Giolito and Whitlock.

 

Dealing an OF is very dependent on how quickly they promote Anthony…

Giolito will be interesting.  Whitlock at this point has just had so much trouble staying healthy I am worried.  The FA pitching list does not look super amazing - though I am very curious how the bidding shakes out for Shane Bieber.  

[sk7326]

2 hours ago, notin said:

He could have gotten a non-40 man pitcher for Yorke easily enough.

 

I think he simply liked something about Priester and Pitt asked about Yorke.  But as Priester already has a service time clock in operation, he’s not a long term project.  If he isn’t trade bait this off-season, he will be starting for Boston next year.  The only question is whether or not he does so opening day…

I am gueesing Priester was probably the best arm they could get for Yorke.  

[notin]

21 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Exactly.  

You agreed with that?  
 

So you’re saying past injuries cannot predict future injuries, but past health can?!?