Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Yoshi's deal isn't even the 2nd worst on the team, and was 3rd worst, last year, too.

2024:  worst is Story, 2nd is Gio, 3rd is Yoshi. (I can see making Yoshi 2nd if looking at full term.)

2023: worst was Story, 2nd was Sale, and 3rd was Yoshi (Maybe Sale was worst at full term.)

So injuries are bad.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So injuries are bad.

It seems to happen much more frequently to out higher-priced players and those we just signed.

Sometimes, we sign guys knowing they are injured or injury prone: Story, Sale, O'Neill, Nate, Paxton, Richards, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Hendriks, Fulmer... But even guys like Gio and Slaten went down- year one.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Story was healthy, his contract would not be an issue. Giolito's contract is palatable and short.

Masa is DH only and here for a while. He clearly has the worst contract. 

My Yoshida take: there's always a place on a good team for a .290 contact hitter.

But the Red Sox are not a good team, and their overrated offensive stats are diluted by way too many strikeouts.

If you're going to whiff 14 times a night, you'd better mix in a few more home runs -- and Masa just doesn't hit enough bombs to bat clean-up, like last night. A full-time DH needs to have a superior slugging percentage than Romy Gonzalez (Yoshida .427, Romy .426).

[moonslav59]

Yoshida is not really a liability: his contract is.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida is not really a liability: his contract is.

Yoshida has a total fWAR of 1.5 in 2 seasons with us.  That's not good.

I think a DH has to post an OPS of .850 at minimum to be a true asset.  Ortiz had some seasons of 4-5 WAR.

The verdict is in - in spite of some promising little stretches, at the end of the day Yoshida is not a plus, he's a minus. 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yoshida has a total fWAR of 1.5 in 2 seasons with us.  That's not good.

I think a DH has to post an OPS of .850 at minimum to be a true asset.  Ortiz had some seasons of 4-5 WAR.

The verdict is in - in spite of some promising little stretches, at the end of the day Yoshida is not a plus, he's a minus. 

I just said he is not a liability. I didn't say he was a plus or big plus.

He has an OPS+ of 116, this year (112 Career) and missed about 50 games due to an injury.

With the new Mendoza line at .680, his .780+ OPS is "NOT a liability."

[Bellhorn04]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I just said he is not a liability. I didn't say he was a plus or big plus.

He has an OPS+ of 116, this year (112 Career) and missed about 50 games due to an injury.

With the new Mendoza line at .680, his .780+ OPS is "NOT a liability."

I guess it depends on how you interpret his fWAR.  fWAR punishes DHs for only doing one thing.  Especially if they're lousy baserunners as Yoshida and most DHs are.

That new Mendoza line works for position players but I don't think it works fpr DHs.  

A permanent DH probably needs to OPS .825 or more to justify their existence.  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:22 AM, notin said:

The obvious need is a frontline starting pitcher.  If the Sox are reluctant to spend on a free agent or to trade any Anthony, Mayer, Teel, or Kristian Campbell, I wonder who would be the best pitcher they could get for a package of Braden Montgomery and Franklin Arias…

Cleaning house!

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-surprisingly-send-multiple-coaches-packing-new-report-reveals-colin3#:~:text=“As part of an overhaul,and as an interim bullpen

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Cleaning house!

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-surprisingly-send-multiple-coaches-packing-new-report-reveals-colin3#:~:text=“As part of an overhaul,and as an interim bullpen

The internal audit they commissioned is starting to bear fruit! 😎

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

My Yoshida take: there's always a place on a good team for a .290 contact hitter.

But the Red Sox are not a good team, and their overrated offensive stats are diluted by way too many strikeouts.

If you're going to whiff 14 times a night, you'd better mix in a few more home runs -- and Masa just doesn't hit enough bombs to bat clean-up, like last night. A full-time DH needs to have a superior slugging percentage than Romy Gonzalez (Yoshida .427, Romy .426).

A .290 DH with no speed and little power? He doesn't have much use to me even on a playoff team.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The internal audit they commissioned is starting to bear fruit! 😎

They aren't doing an internal audit. They hired external consultants to audit their personnel. Also, I think these changes aren't necessarily related to what the consultants found.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't doing an internal audit. They hired external consultants to audit their personnel. Also, I think these changes aren't necessarily related to what the consultants found.

I guess my joke sucked on two counts. 😁

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 Also, I think these changes aren't necessarily related to what the consultants found.

Based on what?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I guess my joke sucked on two counts. 😁

A lady went to her doctor and found out she only had 6 months to live. 

"Doc, what should I do?!?"

"Find yourself a nice accountant and get married."

"Will that make me live longer?"

"No, but it will make it SEEM longer!"

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Based on what?

This was an overhaul of pitching development. They already had hired a significant amount of people to focus on that department so I'm sure Justin Willard was already deciding which guys needed to go as he is on Craig's wavelength. I think the EXTERNAL audit will bring up other changes throughout baseball operations that need to be made. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If a DH is slow, the most important averages are his Slug and BA -- because productive hits can move other baserunners multiple bases.

The O in OPS doesn't matter as much for a DH if he walks a lot, because he's not a DW.

Being on base does means he didn't make an out -- always a good thing -- though being a slowpoke means he's usually station-to-station (and a DP risk if he rolls over to the second baseman a lot -- which is worse than a K).

Still, a .290 batting average has more value than you think. This year there are only eight qualified batters in the AL over .290, and only five in the NL. There are also only seven .300 hitters in the majors... total.

[Larry Cook]

A lot of guys hung up on our ability to get Bryce miller in a trade! 
I found two other guys that have similar stuff and might work in Fenway! 
birdsong and Irwin! 
not sure if bres-slow can dance with their current gm’s, especially Washington, but these two guys could help our rotation in 2025, I think! 

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I just said he is not a liability. I didn't say he was a plus or big plus.

He has an OPS+ of 116, this year (112 Career) and missed about 50 games due to an injury.

With the new Mendoza line at .680, his .780+ OPS is "NOT a liability."

if you have to pay 60-70% of his salary for another team to take him off your hands....he's a liabilty.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if you have to pay 60-70% of his salary for another team to take him off your hands....he's a liabilty.

Yes, I said his contract is the liability. 

He has plus value, otherwise, we'd have to pay 100%.

His performance value is under his contract value. Agreed.

[Hugh2]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:22 AM, notin said:

The obvious need is a frontline starting pitcher.  If the Sox are reluctant to spend on a free agent or to trade any Anthony, Mayer, Teel, or Kristian Campbell, I wonder who would be the best pitcher they could get for a package of Braden Montgomery and Franklin Arias…

As a general rule of thumb, I don't think it's good strategy to trade away a lot of high ceiling guys who are in A ball or lower.   It's easier to project a player improving from A to AA than it is from the minors to majors.  You're certainly selling low on this kid, whatever package he may bring.  Arias has a better chance of developing into a blue chip trade piece by next year than he does a starting MLB SS. 

right now, Arias probably gets you a relief pitcher.  If the kid develops into an all star caliber SS, no G.M. wants to be the guy who traded him for a middling reliever. 

[Hugh2]

20 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The internal audit they commissioned is starting to bear fruit! 😎

I'm an optimist, but reality is how do we know they got rid of the right guys and kept the right guys?  Again, I like that they're making changes and moving forward, but I wouldn't call it "bearing fruit" yet.  Not until they actually start to look like a winning franchise again. 

[Bellhorn04]

50 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm an optimist, but reality is how do we know they got rid of the right guys and kept the right guys?  Again, I like that they're making changes and moving forward, but I wouldn't call it "bearing fruit" yet.  Not until they actually start to look like a winning franchise again. 

I was just joking around anyway.  

[Bellhorn04]

Once Brez is finished addressing the pitching development, he's going to have to turn his attention to the hitting.

[moonslav59]

I think we just have to hope we pick "the right" guy to trade, and hope we don't get it wrong.

Then, we have to make sure the guy we get is "the right guy."

Two things can go wrong, and with our record, it seems to be too big a risk, but ot fixing our staff is a sure bet failed plan.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/14/2024 at 8:55 AM, notin said:

Sure.

Yoshia and Grissom for Castillo and Garver…

not a chance the Mariners go for this trade

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Once Brez is finished addressing the pitching development, he's going to have to turn his attention to the hitting.

Brez has added more mediocre pitchers to the depth chart but nothing else

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Brez has added more mediocre pitchers to the depth chart but nothing else

Some have potential for growth, but except for Slaten, I agree that they all look mediocre, right now.

Slaten

Criswell

Weissert & I Campbell

Fitts & Priester

Sandlin & Judice

Gio, Hendriks & Fulmer

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

not a chance the Mariners go for this trade

Maybe adding the Abreu to TEX and Josh Smith to SEA might get it closer.

A lot depends on how much SEA values losing Castillo's salary vs taking on the lower Yoshi deal.

They could "spend the saving" and add another piece that might tilt the balance to a "Yes."

[moonslav59]

Chris martin is talking about retiring after 2025. Should we offer him $5-7M/1?

[moonslav59]

Trades for good young pitchers with promise are made, every year. Yes, they are costly, but they do happen.

Here is one:

BA leader Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez and 2 minor leaguers.

Shortly afterwards, he signed a 4 year extension for $73.5M for an AAV of $18.4M. (The contract took the place of 1 arb year remaining.) 

At the 2022 deadline, SEA traded Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moore, Noelvi Martre and Levi Stoudt for Luis Castillo. They extended him at $108M/5 ($21.6 AAV) plus a vesting option.

Both signed reasonable extensions.

The cost was high for both, but we have that value to trade.