Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

21 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

8 hours ago, sk7326 said:

I am gueesing Priester was probably the best arm they could get for Yorke.  

Probably, or at least the one Breslow liked the best.  

Im just saying the trade was not about a 40 man roster crunch. If it was, then Breslow didn’t take back a 40 man player, because that would make no sense.
 

Unless the team having 40 man roster issues was Pittsburgh..

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

You agreed with that?  
 

So you’re saying past injuries cannot predict future injuries, but past health can?!?

Let me just clarify it once and for all:

Past injuries do not NECESSARILY predict future injuries.

As for Houck, Crawford and Bello's innings, there are 2 things in play:

1) Increases in innings can sometimes have adverse effects.

2) Law of averages/s*** Happens factors. 

[notin]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Let me just clarify it once and for all:

Past injuries do not NECESSARILY predict future injuries.

As for Houck, Crawford and Bello's innings, there are 2 things in play:

1) Increases in innings can sometimes have adverse effects.

2) Law of averages/s*** Happens factors. 

You need to learn Notin’s First Law of Injury-Prone Athletes, which simply states:

 

”Players who get injured a lot tend to get injured a lot.”

 

and remember, this is a Law, so it’s irrefutable…

[notin]

If KC wins the WS this year, the Sox need to prioritize LHRP Will Smith, who would then establish himself as the Greatest Good Luck Charm in MLB Past, Present, and Future.  That he still has a chance to extend his unprecedented streak of 3 straight WS rings with 3 different teams is ridiculous.

Plus, bullpen help.  That, too…

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Giolito will be interesting.  Whitlock at this point has just had so much trouble staying healthy I am worried.  The FA pitching list does not look super amazing - though I am very curious how the bidding shakes out for Shane Bieber.  

I think the trade route is our best option for adding a higher quality pitcher or two.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the trade route is our best option for adding a higher quality pitcher or two.

Always my preferred method, but it’s hard to envision who.  Especially if the Sox take all their best trade chips off the market. 
 

Crochet appears to be available, and should garner plenty of interest.  There’s been no indication Seattle wants to move any young pitching. Houston doesn’t have the advertised starter depth, since Garcia and Javier are likely both out until August.  And McCullers can injure himself by reading the instructions on his PT printout .  The 2025-26 free agent class has some moderately worthwhile arms with one year left that might be had.  
 

Im sure a pitcher or two will change uniforms (probably more).  But I also know Boston expects Giolito to be one new pitcher added to the 2025 rotation already…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Always my preferred method, but it’s hard to envision who.  Especially if the Sox take all their best trade chips off the market. 
 

Crochet appears to be available, and should garner plenty of interest.  There’s been no indication Seattle wants to move any young pitching. Houston doesn’t have the advertised starter depth, since Garcia and Javier are likely both out until August.  And McCullers can injure himself by reading the instructions on his PT printout .  The 2025-26 free agent class has some moderately worthwhile arms with one year left that might be had.  
 

Im sure a pitcher or two will change uniforms (probably more).  But I also know Boston expects Giolito to be one new pitcher added to the 2025 rotation already…

I get this, totally. I have serious doubts we add a solid SP'er to the mix, but I see it this way: even if Gio takes Pivetta's job and does it well, AND they decide to put and keep Whitlock in the pen, are we really oaky with just running back the same rotation, next year?

Aren't we just begging for the same results? Another near-miss.

Houck, Gio, Crawford, Bello still leaves the 5th slot open, as Criswell was never intended to be a 28 start pitcher. Sure, they might think between Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and (gasp) Whitlock, we don't need one, but do. I am certain of this.

I see our chances being very slim at doing anything great, next season with a status quo rotation, and I feel the same about the pen. I don't see adding Hendriks, Whitlock & Fulmer as being an upgrade over Jansen and Martin.

I'm not predicting major additions: I am suggesting (and begging for) them.

 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get this, totally. I have serious doubts we add a solid SP'er to the mix, but I see it this way: even if Gio takes Pivetta's job and does it well, AND they decide to put and keep Whitlock in the pen, are we really oaky with just running back the same rotation, next year?

Aren't we just begging for the same results? Another near-miss.

Houck, Gio, Crawford, Bello still leaves the 5th slot open, as Criswell was never intended to be a 28 start pitcher. Sure, they might think between Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and (gasp) Whitlock, we don't need one, but do. I am certain of this.

I see our chances being very slim at doing anything great, next season with a status quo rotation, and I feel the same about the pen. I don't see adding Hendriks, Whitlock & Fulmer as being an upgrade over Jansen and Martin.

I'm not predicting major additions: I am suggesting (and begging for) them.

 

My (wildly inaccurate?) take, assuming everyone is healthy.

 

Starters will include Giolito, Houck, Bello and Crawford.  If they don’t go internal for the fifth spot (Fitts? Priester?), it will be a competent but unexciting free agent like Pivetta, Flaherty, Manaea or Kikuchi.

 

The bullpen will include Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Fulmer, Winckowski, Penrod, Criswell, and likely a left- handed free agent.  Preferably Bummer or Chafin.  Hopefully not round 3 of Joely Rodriguez…

[sk7326]

Can they put a good enough offer for Sandy Alcantara?  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

My (wildly inaccurate?) take, assuming everyone is healthy.

 

Starters will include Giolito, Houck, Bello and Crawford.  If they don’t go internal for the fifth spot (Fitts? Priester?), it will be a competent but unexciting free agent like Pivetta, Flaherty, Manaea or Kikuchi.

 

The bullpen will include Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Fulmer, Winckowski, Penrod, Criswell, and likely a left- handed free agent.  Preferably Bummer or Chafin.  Hopefully not round 3 of Joely Rodriguez…

Flaherty, Chafin & Sewald

[Larry Cook]

If ownership set the 2025 budget at 195 million, we still have a decent amount of room to sign and trade for a quality starters. 
I know bres-slow said he planned on being aggressive this offseason, but does mean pitching??? 
hang’em Chaim has absolutely stocked our team with left handed hitters, hard to see bres-slow augmenting there. 
so that leaves pitching and right handed hitters  for bres-slow to be aggressive with this offseason 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If ownership set the 2025 budget at 195 million, we still have a decent amount of room to sign and trade for a quality starters. 
I know bres-slow said he planned on being aggressive this offseason, but does mean pitching??? 
hang’em Chaim has absolutely stocked our team with left handed hitters, hard to see bres-slow augmenting there. 
so that leaves pitching and right handed hitters  for bres-slow to be aggressive with this offseason 

What else is there to spend on? A back-up catcher- maybe a RHB, but at what position, and who would be benched?

I could see us swapping a LHB for a RHB or equal value, and maybe even the same position. I'm thinking maybe Abreu and or DHam, but more likely I could see us trading one or both for a RP'er or two- maybe a decent back-up Catcher with one year of control left.

I sure hope the budget is set higher at $195M, and I'm not sure that will be enough, even if Brez hits on every signing, this time.  The tax line is $241M, so $195M would be a really weak showing from JH, and enough to get me pretty pissed off- well, even more than I am, now. There is no reason for it to be that low, whatsoever, but I guess profits mean more to some people than others.

If $195 is the number, I have that giving Brez about $25-30M for a winter budget.  That's enough for a decent SP'er, RP'er and back-up catcher, assuming none of those roles are filled via trade(s.) With a logjam at a few positions, I can't imagine us not making a trade. That would allow the full amount to be spent on 1-2 slots, not 3-4.

If the budget is set at $210M or even $220, we could do so much more. Setting it at just below the tax line, say around $240M, we'd have close to $70M to spend on what feel is really just 3-4 key slots needing major upgrades- maybe 1-2, if we make a trade or two.

In short, a lot depends on what the what the winter spending payroll is.

[Hugh2]

On 9/25/2024 at 8:16 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Let me just clarify it once and for all:

Past injuries do not NECESSARILY predict future injuries.

As for Houck, Crawford and Bello's innings, there are 2 things in play:

1) Increases in innings can sometimes have adverse effects.

2) Law of averages/s*** Happens factors. 

Here's to hoping Trevor Story is the offensive version of 2024 Chris Sale in 2025. 

[Hugh2]

19 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Can they put a good enough offer for Sandy Alcantara?  

Sox have the assets to get whoever they want.

It all comes down to cost, and if they're willing to pay it. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's to hoping Trevor Story is the offensive version of 2024 Chris Sale in 2025. 

I'd be happy with .760, GG defense and 550+ PAs.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sox have the assets to get whoever they want.

It all comes down to cost, and if they're willing to pay it. 

Exactly.

We have the trade capital to add 2-3 solid pitchers without adversely affecting our starting 9 at all, or much. (Hurting the depth or future, yes.)

Even if we keep the budget the same or cut it a little, we have enough to add 2 solid pitchers or one really good one, as in better than Gio was, on paper, last winter.

[moonslav59]

On 9/25/2024 at 6:55 AM, notin said:

You agreed with that?  
 

So you’re saying past injuries cannot predict future injuries, but past health can?!?

I agreed that we cannot count on Houck, Bello and Crawford to start 90+ games in 2025.

I do think pitchers who have long injury histories are more likely to get hurt than those without.

I don't see anything in the post I said "exactly" to refutes anything I believe in.

[Bellhorn04]

34 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's to hoping Trevor Story is the offensive version of 2024 Chris Sale in 2025. 

Well, I'll go on record that I'm vehemently opposed to trading Story and I think there's a good chance he has a solid 2025.

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agreed that we cannot count on Houck, Bello and Crawford to start 90+ games in 2025.

I do think pitchers who have long injury histories are more likely to get hurt than those without.

I don't see anything in the post I said "exactly" to refutes anything I believe in.

In case there's any confusion, notin was replying to me there.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's to hoping Trevor Story is the offensive version of 2024 Chris Sale in 2025. 

Would you bet on that?

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sox have the assets to get whoever they want.

Seems like an overstatement.  

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Would you bet on that?

I'm not sure anyone would call betting on your hopes a good bet. 

[notin]

59 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's to hoping Trevor Story is the offensive version of 2024 Chris Sale in 2025. 

Murphy’s Law tells us Story will be exactly that until the Sox trade away Mayer.  Then he will dislocate a hip…

[notin]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be happy with .760, GG defense and 550+ PAs.

Ill be happy if he stays healthy enough to keep the centerfielders in centerfield…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Murphy’s Law tells us Story will be exactly that until the Sox trade away Mayer.  Then he will dislocate a hip…

So we shouldn't trade Mayer, agreed.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So we shouldn't trade Mayer, agreed.

I am all for not trading Mayer.   
 

If the Sox have to trade one of the Big Four, I would move Kristian Campbell first, due to his lack of a position.  I can see an argument for moving Teel first as well.

 

My preference would be to move Braden Montgomery and/or Franklin Arias over any of the top 4…

[moonslav59]

If we assume this, then what?

Anthony, Campbell and Mayer (if healthy) have a starting or major playing slot on the 26 by mid summer 2025, and Teel is held back until 2026. (Meidroth is held back as injury insurance at 3B or other IF positions.)

The 13 man everyday player roster might look like this, assuming all healthy:

C: Wong + one year addition or Gasper/Heineman

1B: Casas (Romy AAA)

2B: Campbell, Grissom (DHam/Romy)

SS: Story, DHam (Romy, Sogard AAA)

3B: Devers (Romy AAA)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Abreu/Anthony

DH: Yoshida (Refsnyder/ E Valdez AAA)

The problem: This is 14 players. If Ref retires, it's 13, but our RHBs are weak. (No O'Neill or Ref, but added Story & Campbell.)

I suppose we can keep DHam in AAA and go with just Grissom as infield depth, but that is not ideal.

If Ref stays another year, trading Abreu or Rafaela makes some sense. Even if he retires, trading Abreu may make sense.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In case there's any confusion, notin was replying to me there.

I know, but he question my agreement with you and my "exactly" reply.

[Hugh2]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

Murphy’s Law tells us Story will be exactly that until the Sox trade away Mayer.  Then he will dislocate a hip…

Or they trade away Story and he has a career year and Mayer dislocates a hip. 

[sk7326]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Would you bet on that?

No.  But I wouldn't not have bet on Chris Sale going a full season without being struck by an Acme, Inc. anvil either.  

I do give him massive credit for coming back.  And it was a legit freak injury he got this time.