Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Just say no to Castillo. 
if we are doing a deal with Seattle, the only Seattle pitcher that I think works in Fenway is Bryce Miller. I do not think we waste time talking about the other pitchers! 
except for Anthony, Campbell, teel and Montgomery, every other position  prospect needs to be on the trade list along with every position player in Boston not named devers or rafeala 

I really like Bryce Miller, a lot, but why are Kirby, Gilbert and Woo not close to Miller?

I do think Kirby and Gilbert would be way more expensive, but only because they are more sure bet pitchers than Miller. The years of control difference is reason enough, IMO, but here is a breakdown of the non Castillo SP'er in SEA's rotation>

Gilbert (3 arbs) 4.1 fWAR '24 in 197 IP (3rd in MLB)/ 7.1 fWAR '23-'24 (388 IP)

Kirby (4 arbs) 4.0 fWAR '24 in 185 IP (7th in MLB)/8.3 fWAR '23-'24 (376 IP)

Miller (pre-arb) 2.6 fWAR '24 in 173 IP (The same as Houck)/ 4.5 '23-'24 (305 IP)

Woo (Pre-arb) 0.6 fWAR '24 in 110 IP/2.8 '23-24 (198 IP)

ERA- 2023-2024: 88 Woo, 89 Kirby, 89 Gilbert, 92 Miller (Castillo 89)

xFIP: 3.45 Gilbert, 3.61 Kirby, 3.82 Castillo, 4.02 Woo, 4,03 Miller

(for refernece:

xFIP: 3.49 Pivetta, 3.74 Houck, 3.95 Bello, 4.05 Wink, 4.35 Crawford

ERA- 79 Wink, 89 Houck, 94 Crawford, 95 Pivetta, 99 Bello.

I'll take any of the 5. I think the return for Castillo would be way less, due to his age and contract, but that is what makes him as interesting a get as any of the others.

Some of the numbers show Woo might be the best get.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Bryce Miller, a lot, but why are Kirby, Gilbert and Woo not close to Miller?

I do think Kirby and Gilbert would be way more expensive, but only because they are more sure bet pitchers than Miller. The years of control difference is reason enough, IMO, but here is a breakdown of the non Castillo SP'er in SEA's rotation>

Gilbert (3 arbs) 4.1 fWAR '24 in 197 IP (3rd in MLB)/ 7.1 fWAR '23-'24 (388 IP)

Kirby (4 arbs) 4.0 fWAR '24 in 185 IP (7th in MLB)/8.3 fWAR '23-'24 (376 IP)

Miller (pre-arb) 2.6 fWAR '24 in 173 IP (The same as Houck)/ 4.5 '23-'24 (305 IP)

Woo (Pre-arb) 0.6 fWAR '24 in 110 IP/2.8 '23-24 (198 IP)

ERA- 2023-2024: 88 Woo, 89 Kirby, 89 Gilbert, 92 Miller (Castillo 89)

xFIP: 3.45 Gilbert, 3.61 Kirby, 3.82 Castillo, 4.02 Woo, 4,03 Miller

(for refernece:

xFIP: 3.49 Pivetta, 3.74 Houck, 3.95 Bello, 4.05 Wink, 4.35 Crawford

ERA- 79 Wink, 89 Houck, 94 Crawford, 95 Pivetta, 99 Bello.

I'll take any of the 5. I think the return for Castillo would be way less, due to his age and contract, but that is what makes him as interesting a get as any of the others.

Some of the numbers show Woo might be the best get.

 

 

Two things: 

1.) first, I think only miller profiles as successful in Fenway. 
2.) I think bres-slow values years of control 

[win red sox]

Just a few things I think will happen this off season.

O'Neill and Pivetta will be extended the qualifying offer.  Both will decline.

The Red Sox will be in on Soto.  A lot of noise ref the New York teams are the likely suitors, but both are in  the highest tax bracket and would cost significantly more than a Red Sox offer.

Abreu will be moved for young pitching, along the lines of Ashcraft and Harrington from Pittsburgh.

The Red Sox will stay away from the long term contracts for pitchers.

I could see Yoshida getting traded, he's has an ops of 849 since june 24th(10 games after coming off the IL),  the talk about his contract being a sunk cost is overblown. I could see one of the west coast teams(Giants, Mariners, Angels) in on him.

Don't see Mayer getting traded, just because  it seems likely that Story will miss a significant amount of time and there is no other shortstop on the roster or upper minors.

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Two things: 

1.) first, I think only miller profiles as successful in Fenway. 
2.) I think bres-slow values years of control 

On 2, I do too. I see Woo with the same years of control and some better numbers than Miller, but maybe Miller does profile better for Fenway. I'd be happy with any one of SEA's 5 SP'ers.

[harmony]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

On 2, I do too. I see Woo with the same years of control and some better numbers than Miller, but maybe Miller does profile better for Fenway. I'd be happy with any one of SEA's 5 SP'ers.

Seattle would be happy to keep those five starters as well.

The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 102 and team ERA+ of 105 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on  this year's team OPS+ of 105 and team ERA+ of 106. It's not as if Mariners or Red Sox are bottom-feeders by either measure.

Perhaps the Mariners should adjust their ballpark to help hitters (while necessarily hurting pitchers).

Free agent hitters almost always refuse to sign with Seattle. Since Jerry Dipoto's arrival nine years ago the largest guaranteed free agent contracts to hitters went to Mitch Garver (two years, $24 million last offseason), AJ Pollock (one year, $7 million the previous offseason) and Nori Aoki (one year, $5.5 million for 2016).

Free agent pitchers apparently find Seattle more attractive as Dipoto has negotiated more than $200 million in free agents contracts for pitchers, topped by the five-year, $115 million deal for Robbie Ray.

The Mariners are in a tough spot ... as are many MLB clubs.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Two things: 

1.) first, I think only miller profiles as successful in Fenway. 
2.) I think bres-slow values years of control 

actually i think it is Henry who values years of control

[Randy Red Sox]

12 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle would be happy to keep those five starters as well.

The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 102 and team ERA+ of 105 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on  this year's team OPS+ of 105 and team ERA+ of 106. It's not as if Mariners or Red Sox are bottom-feeders by either measure.

Perhaps the Mariners should adjust their ballpark to help hitters (while necessarily hurting pitchers).

Free agent hitters almost always refuse to sign with Seattle. Since Jerry Dipoto's arrival nine years ago the largest guaranteed free agent contracts to hitters went to Mitch Garver (two years, $24 million last offseason), AJ Pollock (one year, $7 million the previous offseason) and Nori Aoki (one year, $5.5 million for 2016).

Free agent pitchers apparently find Seattle more attractive as Dipoto has negotiated more than $200 million in free agents contracts for pitchers, topped by the five-year, $115 million deal for Robbie Ray.

The Mariners are in a tough spot ... as are many MLB clubs.

excellent post

[notin]

18 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Just say no to Castillo. 
if we are doing a deal with Seattle, the only Seattle pitcher that I think works in Fenway is Bryce Miller. I do not think we waste time talking about the other pitchers! 
except for Anthony, Campbell, teel and Montgomery, every other position  prospect needs to be on the trade list along with every position player in Boston not named devers or rafeala 

What if Seattle wants Roman Anthony for Bryce Miller?  Or, more likely, Roman Anthony plus.  Should the Sox agree to that deal?  Should they switch targets  to (likely) more available Castillo, who will cost less?Or just refuse to upgrade the pitching altogether?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

What if Seattle wants Roman Anthony for Bryce Miller?  Or, more likely, Roman Anthony plus.  Should the Sox agree to that deal?  Should they switch targets  to (likely) more available Castillo, who will cost less?Or just refuse to upgrade the pitching altogether?

No, just refuse to trade a future star and potential MVP. They're way too rare, and more valuable playing everyday than an ace starting pitcher. The Red Sox have only one this season on their entire MLB roster.

And I'm not talking about a guy who doesn't even play in the field but can carry a team all year just as a DH -- because Ohtani is unique. But so is Paul Skenes, and the Pirates are coming in last place again.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

No, just refuse to trade a future star and potential MVP. They're way too rare, and more valuable playing everyday than an ace starting pitcher. The Red Sox have only one this season on their entire MLB roster.

And I'm not talking about a guy who doesn't even play in the field but can carry a team all year just as a DH -- because Ohtani is unique. But so is Paul Skenes, and the Pirates are coming in last place again.

The problem is, if you have any faith in BTV, not only is Anthony (surplus value - $52.7mill) a reasonable ask for Bryce Miller ($48.4mill), he’s actually the most reasonable ask…

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

Seattle would be happy to keep those five starters as well.

The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 102 and team ERA+ of 105 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on  this year's team OPS+ of 105 and team ERA+ of 106. It's not as if Mariners or Red Sox are bottom-feeders by either measure.

Perhaps the Mariners should adjust their ballpark to help hitters (while necessarily hurting pitchers).

Free agent hitters almost always refuse to sign with Seattle. Since Jerry Dipoto's arrival nine years ago the largest guaranteed free agent contracts to hitters went to Mitch Garver (two years, $24 million last offseason), AJ Pollock (one year, $7 million the previous offseason) and Nori Aoki (one year, $5.5 million for 2016).

Free agent pitchers apparently find Seattle more attractive as Dipoto has negotiated more than $200 million in free agents contracts for pitchers, topped by the five-year, $115 million deal for Robbie Ray.

The Mariners are in a tough spot ... as are many MLB clubs.

You make some great points, as you usually do. I fully realize the SEA pitcher stats are inflated by their home field "advantage" (for pitchers,) and that is one reason I look at stats like ERA-.

As much as most fans take into account batters fro Colorado, I think most realize SEA is the pitcher dream park. (Team ERA in 2024: 2.84 Home and 4.23 Away.) This was one thing I looked at when I mentioned Woo might be the better target:

AWAY ERA:

3.00 Woo

3.82 Gilbert

4.03 Kirby, 4.25 Castillo and 4.44 Miller

For contrast, some Sox AWAY ERAs:

3.08 Houck

4.06 Craiswell, 4.19 Bello, 4.32 Crawford, 4.42 Pivetta

Note: the Away ERA numbers do not factor in park dimensions of away games, strength of offenses face and more. For instance, the Sox faced a their own division in more away games- a division that boasts have the #1 offense by runs scored (NYY) and the #2 (BAL)  in the AL. (TOR #9 and TBR #14.) SEA faced #6 HOU, #10 TEX, #12 OAK and #13 LAA. One can argue many of their away games were played in "pitcher parks" than the Sox, too.

One could look at these away comps and wonder why we'd want to pay bigtime to let Pivetta walk and trade for Miller.

That being said, the SEA pitchers are young, except Castillo, and have many years of team control (3 for Gilbert, 4 for Kirby and 5 for Miller and Woo,) and I think all can get better.

This does make me wonder if Crochet, Skubal or someone else might be a better target, especially if we are talking a package with Anthony at the top.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

The problem is, if you have any faith in BTV, not only is Anthony (surplus value - $52.7mill) a reasonable ask for Bryce Miller ($48.4mill), he’s actually the most reasonable ask…

The Red Sox' problem is that they don't have any surplus of star ballplayers. The MLB roster of position players is loaded with guys who can do one or two things really well at the top level, but added all up, they're not good enough.

Teams that lose more than they win are not good. The Red Sox are not a good baseball team.

None of us were shocked when Boston traded top prospects Hanley Ramirez or Yoan Moncada. Maybe it's because the org had question marks about each or maybe it was because the parent clubs had solid cores, with more near-ready talent in the pipeline.

Not this year; if Brezlow swaps a top 4 prospect, we all better believe that guy was identified as not being part of the future core -- for whatever the reason/s.

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, win red sox said:

The Red Sox will be in on Soto.  A lot of noise ref the New York teams are the likely suitors, but both are in  the highest tax bracket and would cost significantly more than a Red Sox offer.

I can't see it.  We have Duran, Rafaela and Anthony, and I'm thinking if they're prepared to make any splashy signings it will be pitching.  Soto will command a massive chunk of budget.

[moonslav59]

It's an age old question: why would any team trade away a young pitcher who has already shown excellence?

Everyone knows pitching is so very important, and that is why the return on trades that do happen, often look like overpays, but we need to also ask:

Why did Cincy trade Castillo? (To save money and get something for a player that would be a FA in 1.3 years?)

Why did MIA trade Pablo Lopez? (Was it that his big payday was coming after his last arb year in 2024?)

Both these guys ended up extending at somewhat reasonable amounts, from the team's perspective.

Who are guys like them available this winter?

When was the last 5 years of control good pitcher traded?  (I honestly don't know.) For one thing, most pitchers with 5 years of control do not have long records of proven success, but some seem to have already proven they have nasty stuff and should be very good to great pitchers, going forward.

In theory, I think the Sox should avoid trading Anthony, unless the pitcher blows us away. I'm not sure who that pitcher is. I think Skubal is, but not just 2 years of control for 5+ of Anthony, and I'm someone who values a 1 in 5 games SP'er over an everyday player, to begin with. (Many top SP'ers face 750-850 batters in a season, which is more PAs than any batter ever gets is my reasoning.)

This is not an easy problem to solve. Do we first determine who is the best player or players to trade away, and that we can fill their holes internally without a major setback, and then just get the best pitcher we can get with that package? Or, do we find the best group of pitchers who are available in trade and seek to get one with the lowest package offer we can come up with, even if it means we part with Anthony or Campbell, since one is the lowest any team will go in their demands?

IMO, trading Casas and Abreu makes the most sense, in terms of maxing out value giving away vs how well we can do without them, but I also fully realize that headline package is not getting even 2 years of Skubal and likely not 2 years of Crochet, either, so where does that leave us?

How valuable is Mayer in the eyes of other GMs? I do think we can roll the dice on Story's health, once again and put our eggs in the Campbell basket at 2B, wile also counting on Anthony to give our already very good OF a boost. Maybe a package of Mayer + Abreu gets us better than Casas + Abreu. What does a Mayer, Casas and Abreu package get usvs an Anthony + Meidroth and Fitts package?

There are so many permutations of deals we can offer- all with a very nice headliner and some decent add-on, and even packages with 2 very nice headliners that would not deplete the starting 9 or the MLB 13 everyday player roster too drastically. To me, we are very deep at everyday players and the top prospects we have coming up are projected to be better than who we have already. Trading a prospect does not lessen the MLB core we are carrying over, but it does lessen the depth and future outlook of the given position. Trading Casas and playing Campbell at 3B and Devers at 1B might actually be an overall improvement of the team (Defense for sure and maybe the offense.) Trading Abreu and handing the FT RF job to Anthony could be a major improvement, but maybe not right away. Trading Mayer and handing the 2B job to Campbell makes a lot of sense, until Story gets hurt, and our 3 best 2Bmen (Campbell, DHam and Grissom) might all such at SS D, or we end up with Rafaela back at SS, again. What would rafaela bring back in trade? We would also have a full LHB OF by trading him.

This is all enough to make one's head spin, but with so many options we can put on the table, it's hard to imagine we can't find one GM taker, since most teams don't have the trading chips we do- both in value, variety and in quantity.

Go to work BREZ! Get it done!

[notin]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox' problem is that they don't have any surplus of star ballplayers. The MLB roster of position players is loaded with guys who can do one or two things really well at the top level, but added all up, they're not good enough.

Teams that lose more than they win are not good. The Red Sox are not a good baseball team.

None of us were shocked when Boston traded top prospects Hanley Ramirez or Yoan Moncada. Maybe it's because the org had question marks about each or maybe it was because the parent clubs had solid cores, with more near-ready talent in the pipeline.

Not this year; if Brezlow swaps a top 4 prospect, we all better believe that guy was identified as not being part of the future core -- for whatever the reason/s.

In the cases of both Ramirez (Pedroia) and Moncada (Benintendi), another prospect was reportedly asked for first and the final trade was a result of some negotiation.  If the Sox approached Seattle about any of their younger starters, Anthony would be the first name Dipoto mentioned.  The Sox are in a position to offer lesser yet still intriguing prospects, and the Mariners might be ok moving Woo or Castillo.  (Castillo being far, far more likely.) 

If I had Breslow’s job, my goal would be to get the best pitcher possible for a package of Braden Montgomery and Franklin Arias.  Of course, I have no idea who that pitcher is.

I will say, part of the fascination with Miller is his age.  The notion that the Sox need “young, cost-controlled starting pitching” is a fallacy.  First of all, that’s all they have right now.  Houck and Crawford are their graybeards, each being all of 27 years old.  And second, with arbitration and contracts being as they are, it’s a rarity to hold on to a pitcher for too long anyway.  And quite often when it does happen, it wasn’t worth it…

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox' problem is that they don't have any surplus of star ballplayers. The MLB roster of position players is loaded with guys who can do one or two things really well at the top level, but added all up, they're not good enough.

Teams that lose more than they win are not good. The Red Sox are not a good baseball team.

None of us were shocked when Boston traded top prospects Hanley Ramirez or Yoan Moncada. Maybe it's because the org had question marks about each or maybe it was because the parent clubs had solid cores, with more near-ready talent in the pipeline.

Not this year; if Brezlow swaps a top 4 prospect, we all better believe that guy was identified as not being part of the future core -- for whatever the reason/s.

You make some great points. They may have to decide that although all 4 of our top prospects are indeed "part of the future core," which one is the least part, and who do we have at that position for the future, instead.

It might come down to how much faith they have in the next level of prospects at certain duplicated positions. If they are super high on Jh Garcia, maybe they bite the bullet and trade the best blue chip in Anthony for the better pitcher return. Maybe they really like Campbell, Arias, Cespedes and Romero, and think they can part with Mayer, despite viewing him as our SS of the future (w Story at 2B and maybe Campbell at 3B & Devers at 1B/DH.) Maybe they think a Grissom-DHam combo at 2B is good enough to believe they can part with Campbell (Plus the part about having Arias, Cespedes and Romero apply to this equation, too.) I do not see a suitable replacement for Teel, and Wong does not seem to be improving on D as he reaches the normal age and level of experience, where that should be coming to fruition. Teel seems like the least likely to be traded, if you look at positional depth and projected replacement value.

In reality, I seriously doubt we trade a top 4 prospects, this winter. I think our 5-8 or 9 prospects are too far away and have too much upside potential to risk selling low on them. I also don't think other teams are willing to part with what we need for A+ level prospects.

If we do make a major trade, I think it will involves Casas  + Abreu or Rafaela and maybe we add a pitcher or a projected AA prospect like Romero or Jh Garcia.

Who knows?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's an age old question: why would any team trade away a young pitcher who has already shown excellence?

Everyone knows pitching is so very important, and that is why the return on trades that do happen, often look like overpays, but we need to also ask:

Why did Cincy trade Castillo? (To save money and get something for a player that would be a FA in 1.3 years?)

Why did MIA trade Pablo Lopez? (Was it that his big payday was coming after his last arb year in 2024?)

Both these guys ended up extending at somewhat reasonable amounts, from the team's perspective.

Who are guys like them available this winter?

When was the last 5 years of control good pitcher traded?  (I honestly don't know.) For one thing, most pitchers with 5 years of control do not have long records of proven success, but some seem to have already proven they have nasty stuff and should be very good to great pitchers, going forward.

In theory, I think the Sox should avoid trading Anthony, unless the pitcher blows us away. I'm not sure who that pitcher is. I think Skubal is, but not just 2 years of control for 5+ of Anthony, and I'm someone who values a 1 in 5 games SP'er over an everyday player, to begin with. (Many top SP'ers face 750-850 batters in a season, which is more PAs than any batter ever gets is my reasoning.)

This is not an easy problem to solve. Do we first determine who is the best player or players to trade away, and that we can fill their holes internally without a major setback, and then just get the best pitcher we can get with that package? Or, do we find the best group of pitchers who are available in trade and seek to get one with the lowest package offer we can come up with, even if it means we part with Anthony or Campbell, since one is the lowest any team will go in their demands?

IMO, trading Casas and Abreu makes the most sense, in terms of maxing out value giving away vs how well we can do without them, but I also fully realize that headline package is not getting even 2 years of Skubal and likely not 2 years of Crochet, either, so where does that leave us?

How valuable is Mayer in the eyes of other GMs? I do think we can roll the dice on Story's health, once again and put our eggs in the Campbell basket at 2B, wile also counting on Anthony to give our already very good OF a boost. Maybe a package of Mayer + Abreu gets us better than Casas + Abreu. What does a Mayer, Casas and Abreu package get usvs an Anthony + Meidroth and Fitts package?

There are so many permutations of deals we can offer- all with a very nice headliner and some decent add-on, and even packages with 2 very nice headliners that would not deplete the starting 9 or the MLB 13 everyday player roster too drastically. To me, we are very deep at everyday players and the top prospects we have coming up are projected to be better than who we have already. Trading a prospect does not lessen the MLB core we are carrying over, but it does lessen the depth and future outlook of the given position. Trading Casas and playing Campbell at 3B and Devers at 1B might actually be an overall improvement of the team (Defense for sure and maybe the offense.) Trading Abreu and handing the FT RF job to Anthony could be a major improvement, but maybe not right away. Trading Mayer and handing the 2B job to Campbell makes a lot of sense, until Story gets hurt, and our 3 best 2Bmen (Campbell, DHam and Grissom) might all such at SS D, or we end up with Rafaela back at SS, again. What would rafaela bring back in trade? We would also have a full LHB OF by trading him.

This is all enough to make one's head spin, but with so many options we can put on the table, it's hard to imagine we can't find one GM taker, since most teams don't have the trading chips we do- both in value, variety and in quantity.

Go to work BREZ! Get it done!

While I don’t hate him, I am not as on board with some about Kristian Campbell and his role as a RHH savior.

At age 22, Campbell’s .898 OPS in AAA is impressive.  Of course, at the same age and level, Vaughn Grissom posted a .921 OPS…

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox' problem is that they don't have any surplus of star ballplayers. The MLB roster of position players is loaded with guys who can do one or two things really well at the top level, but added all up, they're not good enough....

We do have many players that look real good, on paper, but have a serious flaw that keeps them from being seen as a "star." Even our one everyday star, Devers sucks on D. (He may be okay or even a plus at 1B, though.)

I would argue Duran has the full package to be called a star- right now. Plus-plus offense, Plus speed. Plus defense. I wouldn't say he's not a star because of a weak arm, especially if he plays LF, only. He's an overall plus on D in CF, too.

Casas can be a great hitter but sucks on D. I'm not seeing any signs of getting better on D, either. Maybe 1B D is not such a big deal, but he does have one big glaring weakness.

Abreu might win the GG and bat .820. What's wrong with that, one might ask? It's his first full year, and the sky could be the limit. Well, his L-R splits are atrocious. As of now, he cannot be viewed as a FT RF'er. His OPS is .860 vs RHPs- an allstar level with GG-type D, but the .479 OPS vs LHPs is horrific. One could claim a 71 PA sample size is not definitive, but there is a good reason it is so low: he sucks vs LHPs.

Rafaela is a tremendous defensive CF and could maybe be a plus defensive SS, if given the time to develop there, but his plate discipline is atrocious. It is highly doubtful he can every become a plus offensive players. Even being average might be out of reach.

Story used to hit well enough to be thought of as a 5 tool player: Good bat with power, too, great glove and range, good arm (before the injury) and decent speed and base stealing abilities. It's hard to know if he can get his O back to anywhere near what it was 3-4 years ago.

Wong looks like he might be one of MLB's best offensive catchers, but his D ranks near or at the bottom.

DHam is a great base runner, who showed some decent pop and offense, this year. He's also okay on D at 2B, but sucks at SS. He rates to be a decent 2Bman or utility guy, who can never reach "star" status.

Our top 4 prospects do offer hopes of being a "star," someday, but nothing is a given with any of them.

I do think, even players flawed in just one area have a lot of trade value. Maybe more than you think.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

While I don’t hate him, I am not as on board with some about Kristian Campbell and his role as a RHH savior.

At age 22, Campbell’s .898 OPS in AAA is impressive.  Of course, at the same age and level, Vaughn Grissom posted a .921 OPS…

You can always find a comp that exposes the downside of having hopes in a top prospect, and it's not a bad point to be made. None of our prospects should be annointed as a "savior." I think in Campbell's case, some of us may feel he can or likely will be "that guy," simply because we NEED HIM TO BE THAT GUY, which is not a logical thing to think. 

We are so bad vs LHPs, and look to be losing O'Neill, this winter, that we instinctively look at who offers the best hope, and Campbell jumps to the front of a mangy pack of wannabees. Story offers some hope. Wong could improve on O, but is never going to carry a team on offense vs lefties. Rafaela may never repeat even this year's offensive numbers. Refsnyder has been great vs LHPs, but is talking about retiring. At most, we have one more year of him.

All this being said, I still have a lot fo faith in Campbell and more than I do in Mayer or Teel.

I'm also pretty sure a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B would not be bad, and should be better than what we've seen at 2B for over 5 years. (Stories health is crucial, as well.)

I think we simply have to count on Campbell + Grissom/DHam to take care of 2B in 2025 and beyond. We can't spend resources on trying to fix 2B. Choosing to trade Campbell, instead of Anthony, Mayer or Teel might end up being the best choice, and maybe this is what you are getting at, but I have Campbell second only to Anthony on my avoid trading list. (I have no list for no-trade players and never have.)

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I can't see it.  We have Duran, Rafaela and Anthony, and I'm thinking if they're prepared to make any splashy signings it will be pitching.  Soto will command a massive chunk of budget.

I'd love to have Soto, but I agree.

The only way I see this happening is if we trade Anthony for a top pitcher who costs just arb money.

Even then...

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

You can always find a comp that exposes the downside of having hopes in a top prospect, and it's not a bad point to be made. None of our prospects should be annointed as a "savior." I think in Campbell's case, some of us may feel he can or likely will be "that guy," simply because we NEED HIM TO BE THAT GUY, which is not a logical thing to think. 

We are so bad vs LHPs, and look to be losing O'Neill, this winter, that we instinctively look at who offers the best hope, and Campbell jumps to the front of a mangy pack of wannabees. Story offers some hope. Wong could improve on O, but is never going to carry a team on offense vs lefties. Rafaela may never repeat even this year's offensive numbers. Refsnyder has been great vs LHPs, but is talking about retiring. At most, we have one more year of him.

All this being said, I still have a lot fo faith in Campbell and more than I do in Mayer or Teel.

I'm also pretty sure a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B would not be bad, and should be better than what we've seen at 2B for over 5 years. (Stories health is crucial, as well.)

I think we simply have to count on Campbell + Grissom/DHam to take care of 2B in 2025 and beyond. We can't spend resources on trying to fix 2B. Choosing to trade Campbell, instead of Anthony, Mayer or Teel might end up being the best choice, and maybe this is what you are getting at, but I have Campbell second only to Anthony on my avoid trading list. (I have no list for no-trade players and never have.)

But why leap past Grissom?  Because of one bad year? That may have been impacted by an injury?

 

Grissom himself was, not that long ago, considered a very good RHH prospect…

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You make some great points, as you usually do. I fully realize the SEA pitcher stats are inflated by their home field "advantage" (for pitchers,) and that is one reason I look at stats like ERA-.

As much as most fans take into account batters fro Colorado, I think most realize SEA is the pitcher dream park. (Team ERA in 2024: 2.84 Home and 4.23 Away.) This was one thing I looked at when I mentioned Woo might be the better target:

AWAY ERA:

3.00 Woo

3.82 Gilbert

4.03 Kirby, 4.25 Castillo and 4.44 Miller

For contrast, some Sox AWAY ERAs:

3.08 Houck

4.06 Craiswell, 4.19 Bello, 4.32 Crawford, 4.42 Pivetta

Note: the Away ERA numbers do not factor in park dimensions of away games, strength of offenses face and more. For instance, the Sox faced a their own division in more away games- a division that boasts have the #1 offense by runs scored (NYY) and the #2 (BAL)  in the AL. (TOR #9 and TBR #14.) SEA faced #6 HOU, #10 TEX, #12 OAK and #13 LAA. One can argue many of their away games were played in "pitcher parks" than the Sox, too.

One could look at these away comps and wonder why we'd want to pay bigtime to let Pivetta walk and trade for Miller.

That being said, the SEA pitchers are young, except Castillo, and have many years of team control (3 for Gilbert, 4 for Kirby and 5 for Miller and Woo,) and I think all can get better.

This does make me wonder if Crochet, Skubal or someone else might be a better target, especially if we are talking a package with Anthony at the top.

 

The up-and-coming Detroit Tigers are unlikely to trade two years of lefthander Tarik Skubal, their Cy Young candidate who earned only $2.65 million this season.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

But why leap past Grissom?  Because of one bad year? That may have been impacted by an injury?

 

Grissom himself was, not that long ago, considered a very good RHH prospect…

Grissom's stock is probably rising with the Red Sox right now simply because they could use a guy who doesn't resemble a wind turbine.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

What if Seattle wants Roman Anthony for Bryce Miller?  Or, more likely, Roman Anthony plus.  Should the Sox agree to that deal?  Should they switch targets  to (likely) more available Castillo, who will cost less?Or just refuse to upgrade the pitching altogether?

they should not trade Anthony at any cost. By all reports he is the best prospect since Mookie. If they don't upgrade the pitching we are doomed to repeat 2023 and 2024. Problem is that we no arms close to MLB ready.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

But why leap past Grissom?  Because of one bad year? That may have been impacted by an injury?

 

Grissom himself was, not that long ago, considered a very good RHH prospect…

I am sure he will get the chance to win the 2B job again in ST.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

The up-and-coming Detroit Tigers are unlikely to trade two years of lefthander Tarik Skubal, their Cy Young candidate who earned only $2.65 million this season.

Yes, I realize that, and now that they are closer to being a contender than we are, the notion seems very far-fetched. Plus, I would not trade 5 years of Anthony straight up for Skubal, unless he agreed to a decent extension, but it would also take more than just Anthony to get him.

Talking Skubal seems like a foolish thing to do. I agree.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

they should not trade Anthony at any cost. By all reports he is the best prospect since Mookie. If they don't upgrade the pitching we are doomed to repeat 2023 and 2024. Problem is that we no arms close to MLB ready.

It's a Catch 22 situation.

We are doomed, if we don't improve our pitching.

Anthony is the one guy who could be traded to greatly improve our pitching.

Do not trade Anthony at any cost.

BTW, I do think Fitts and Priester plus maybe Dobbins are MLB ready. It is their skill level that is in doubt- not their readiness.

What I'm afraid of is that JH & Co. views one of these three as our 5th starter on opening day, instead of being the much needed minor league rotation depth than are viewed as the 7th through 9th starters on the depth chart, or possibly 6th through 8th, if we add an ace.

 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, harmony said:

The up-and-coming Detroit Tigers are unlikely to trade two years of lefthander Tarik Skubal, their Cy Young candidate who earned only $2.65 million this season.

Skubal?  No.  Detroit might make the postseason this week.

 

Crochet? Absolutely.  I’ll be surprised if he’s on the White Sox 5 months from now.

Other interesting names that might be available include: Aaron Civale, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray, Sean Manaea.  Quite possibly Framber  Valdez and/or Zac Gallen,  but those last  two are only in July and only if each’s resoective team collapses. Tough to do with a third wild card…

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Everyone who thinks Abreu is such a solid all-around rookie and Rafaela is a hopeless hacker realizes that Wilyer's K-rate is 29.0% and Ceddanne's is 26.6%?

The only regular with a worse K-rate than Abreu is O'Neill, at 33.6%. That is, unless you count Casas, whose 34.1% K-rate includes 40% looking (O'Neill's 25.2% looking, Abreu's is 13.8%, Rafaela's is 11.6%).

[harmony]

Do the Red Sox have the trade assets to land a top-tier starting pitcher?

The Red Sox had no player on FanGraphs' midseason ranking of Top 50 Trade Values:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/

Scroll down.

Jarren Duran received a less-than-honorable mention while Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela were listed among "Youth":

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-introduction-and-honorable-mentions/

Values may have fluctuated since the July 26 rankings but attrition limits the current value of prospects.

Seattle was represented on the Top 50 list by Julio Rodriguez (No. 5), George Kirby (No. 22) and Logan Gilbert (No. 23). Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo earned honorable mentions while Luis Castillo was mentioned as a good pitcher on a good contract. Cal Raleigh was "squeezed out" of the main rankings, according to the FanGraphs article.

The Red Sox and Mariners might not match up in a trade.