Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

21 hours ago, sk7326 said:

 

21 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Can they put a good enough offer for Sandy Alcantara?  

Alcantara is owed $37.6 mill over 2 years with a $21mill option for a third.  Miami backloaded his contract and historically has traded players before the more expensive back years.

The 29yo Alcantara didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from TJ.  BTV gives him a surplus value of $20.6 mill and accepts offers of Hamilton and Franklin Arias for him.  While I doubt Miami takes that offer, it at least suggests he is attainable for a reasonable deal, meaning no Anthony, Mayer, Teel or Campbell.

Hes an excellent target if healthy.  Miami fans will insist he’s best dealt at the deadline, but ownership might not be so willing to risk it, as, unlike fans, they probably value money over prospects…

[moonslav59]

Save the hip: keep both!

[notin]

Quickie Uninformed Preview - 2025 lineup

C - Wong will be back and Teel is on the horizon.  I expect a cheap, expendable backup like Tomas Nido, Christian Bethancout, Yan Gomes or Gary Sanchez.

1b - Casas. I consider him trade bait, but I will concede that Breslow’s attempts to extend him likely means he isn’t.

2b - Grissom and/or Hamilton to start.

SS - Story.  Then Mayer when he gets injured for an extended period.

3b - Devers.  He could move to 1b at some point, but I’m banking on that not being in 2025.

LF - Duran

CF - Rafaela

RF - Breslow wants to bring back O’Neill, which might make Abreu expendable.

DH - Yoshida.  He’s a player fans want to move on from, but I don’t think it will be so easy.  His contact skills might be a necessity in this lineup.  But if they can move him, this is an ideal spot to add a decent much-needed right-handed bat.

BN - Romy has earned a return.  They’ll need an OF if Refsnyder retires. (Randal Grichuk?)

SP - Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito (will he be ready?). Need one more plus some depth.

BP - Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock (hopefully), Fulmer, Penrod, Criswell, and I’ll give Winckiwski a maybe.  Need another arm, preferably a lefty.  Might need two if they move on from Winkie…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, I'll go on record that I'm vehemently opposed to trading Story and I think there's a good chance he has a solid 2025.

Can't see a Story trade; he makes too much money for an MLB starting shortstop with a below-average bat. 

He's also the Red Sox' only solid player at a key spot which has been poorly handled by just about anyone else since Bogaerts left.

Even if Mayer is the goods, it doesn't make sense he'll break camp as the starting SS, without yet playing a single inning of Triple A.

A more feasible scenario instead is that Teel, Anthony and Campbell all make the parent club out of Florida next March -- and with Campbell as the starting second baseman, a veteran leader like Story makes too much sense as a mentor and stabilizing DP partner.

If Campbell doesn't make the majors in the Spring of '25 it will be a shock. A guy deemed as the one Minor League Player of the Year -- by professionals who watch and analyze ballplayers for a living -- has to be ready... not necessarily for instant stardom, but for the big leagues.

 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

Quickie Uninformed Preview - 2025 lineup

C - Wong will be back and Teel is on the horizon.  I expect a cheap, expendable backup like Tomas Nido, Christian Bethancout, Yan Gomes or Gary Sanchez.

1b - Casas. I consider him trade bait, but I will concede that Breslow’s attempts to extend him likely means he isn’t.

2b - Grissom and/or Hamilton to start.

SS - Story.  Then Mayer when he gets injured for an extended period.

3b - Devers.  He could move to 1b at some point, but I’m banking on that not being in 2025.

LF - Duran

CF - Rafaela

RF - Breslow wants to bring back O’Neill, which might make Abreu expendable.

DH - Yoshida.  He’s a player fans want to move on from, but I don’t think it will be so easy.  His contact skills might be a necessity in this lineup.  But if they can move him, this is an ideal spot to add a decent much-needed right-handed bat.

BN - Romy has earned a return.  They’ll need an OF if Refsnyder retires. (Randal Grichuk?)

SP - Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito (will he be ready?). Need one more plus some depth.

BP - Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock (hopefully), Fulmer, Penrod, Criswell, and I’ll give Winckiwski a maybe.  Need another arm, preferably a lefty.  Might need two if they move on from Winkie…

Not even a cursory Anthony mention.

You have Romy over DHam. I think it's a toss-up, unless Story gets hurt- then Romy gets the nod.

[win red sox]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Quickie Uninformed Preview - 2025 lineup

C - Wong will be back and Teel is on the horizon.  I expect a cheap, expendable backup like Tomas Nido, Christian Bethancout, Yan Gomes or Gary Sanchez.

1b - Casas. I consider him trade bait, but I will concede that Breslow’s attempts to extend him likely means he isn’t.

2b - Grissom and/or Hamilton to start.

SS - Story.  Then Mayer when he gets injured for an extended period.

3b - Devers.  He could move to 1b at some point, but I’m banking on that not being in 2025.

LF - Duran

CF - Rafaela

RF - Breslow wants to bring back O’Neill, which might make Abreu expendable.

DH - Yoshida.  He’s a player fans want to move on from, but I don’t think it will be so easy.  His contact skills might be a necessity in this lineup.  But if they can move him, this is an ideal spot to add a decent much-needed right-handed bat.

BN - Romy has earned a return.  They’ll need an OF if Refsnyder retires. (Randal Grichuk?)

SP - Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito (will he be ready?). Need one more plus some depth.

BP - Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock (hopefully), Fulmer, Penrod, Criswell, and I’ll give Winckiwski a maybe.  Need another arm, preferably a lefty.  Might need two if they move on from Winkie…

Seems right, but I don't think it's a given that Rafeala has secured a starting role.  It will be interesting if Grissom starts off solid and they need to find a spot for Campbell, which the easiest position to slot him in is LF.

[moonslav59]

Just now, win red sox said:

Seems right, but I don't think it's a given that Rafeala has secured a starting role.  It will be interesting if Grissom starts off solid and they need to find a spot for Campbell, which the easiest position to slot him in is LF.

I do think Rafaela as the inside edge on the CF job, but I agree.

Since I see Abreu being traded, I think that increases the odds on Rafaela being the FT CF'er.

An O'Neill extension and/or Anthony promotion could change everything.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not even a cursory Anthony mention.

You have Romy over DHam. I think it's a toss-up, unless Story gets hurt- then Romy gets the nod.

I could have gone into O’Neill as a good filler until Anthony arrives, but I’m typing on my phone and went quickly 

I mentioned Hamilton at 2b (with Grissom). And as I mentioned the BUC under catcher, that left only two remaining bench spots, which were for Romy and an OF…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, win red sox said:

Seems right, but I don't think it's a given that Rafeala has secured a starting role.  It will be interesting if Grissom starts off solid and they need to find a spot for Campbell, which the easiest position to slot him in is LF.

If Campbell is the leftfielder, that means Breslow pulled off a major blockbuster and traded Duran at the height of his value for an actual good starting pitcher in his prime.

But it's hard to imagine Brez swapping any proven big leaguer like Duran or Casas and keeping prospects instead. A CBO with his brain just doesn't seem likely to rationalize taking such risks. 

A more bold and deliberate GM -- with the professional smarts of a Dombrowski -- would have a party wheeling and dealing if still in charge of Boston this winter. Anything would be possible! But it's almost a given that three or four varsity players would be transferring to Beantown for their upperclassmen years...

[notin]

19 minutes ago, win red sox said:

Seems right, but I don't think it's a given that Rafeala has secured a starting role.  It will be interesting if Grissom starts off solid and they need to find a spot for Campbell, which the easiest position to slot him in is LF.

The Sox extended Rafaela already because they want his glove starting in CF, not on the bench.  His play at SS this year was done out of necessity, but he was all but awarded CF before the 2024 season began…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If Campbell is the leftfielder, that means Breslow pulled off a major blockbuster and traded Duran at the height of his value for an actual good starting pitcher in his prime.

But it's hard to imagine Brez swapping any proven big leaguer like Duran or Casas and keeping prospects instead. A CBO with his brain just doesn't seem likely to rationalize taking such risks. 

A more bold and deliberate GM -- with the professional smarts of a Dombrowski -- would have a party wheeling and dealing if still in charge of Boston this winter. Anything would be possible! But it's almost a given that three or four varsity players would be transferring to Beantown for their upperclassmen years...

Dombrowski would clear up this logjam by dealing the prospects, and at least two from Anthony, Mayer, Teel and Campbell would be on the move.  The deals would probably pan out for Boston and maybe not so much for the other team. But we know given his history who he prefers to trade…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If Campbell is the leftfielder, that means Breslow pulled off a major blockbuster and traded Duran at the height of his value for an actual good starting pitcher in his prime.

But it's hard to imagine Brez swapping any proven big leaguer like Duran or Casas and keeping prospects instead. A CBO with his brain just doesn't seem likely to rationalize taking such risks. 

A more bold and deliberate GM -- with the professional smarts of a Dombrowski -- would have a party wheeling and dealing if still in charge of Boston this winter. Anything would be possible! But it's almost a given that three or four varsity players would be transferring to Beantown for their upperclassmen years...

They could move Rafaela and have Campbell in LF, Duran CF and Anthony/Abreu in RF.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They could move Rafaela and have Campbell in LF, Duran CF and Anthony/Abreu in RF.

Soxprospects indicated his best position might be 2b.  If so, then the prudent maneuver is to give Grissom a legitimate chance and see if he can run with it.  There’s no rush for the Sox  to force Campbell into MLB right now just because he leads their minors in hype.  At the same age, Grissom hit better at AAA ball and might wind up being the better solution.

 

And if not, Campbell can become Plan B…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Soxprospects indicated his best position might be 2b.  If so, then the prudent maneuver is to give Grissom a legitimate chance and see if he can run with it.  There’s no rush for the Sox  to force Campbell into MLB right now just because he leads their minors in hype.  At the same age, Grissom hit better at AAA ball and might wind up being the better solution..

920 OPS for Grissom with 8 HR in in 397 AB at age 22 in AAA.

898 OPS for Campbell with 4 HR in 70 AB at age 22 in AAA. 

Hard to really say Grissom "hit better." We also saw what Grissom did this season. 

[mvp 78]

SoxProspects also indicated that the defense at 2B looks a little ugly and that Grissom still may ultimately need to move to OF. They believe Campbell is better defensively in the IF than Grissom. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

SoxProspects also indicated that the defense at 2B looks a little ugly and that Grissom still may ultimately need to move to OF. They believe Campbell is better defensively in the IF than Grissom. 

I guess I wrongly assumed that most SSs can transition into at least acceptable defense at 2B. I'm ready to give up on Grissom at 2B, but we really have no room for him in the OF. To me, it's 2B or a trade.

 

[dgalehouse]

Anthony is probably close to untouchable. Campbell bats right handed.  That makes Mayer and Teel the most likely trade candidates among the prospects. As for the regulars, Duran has the most value, but  would be a major loss to the lineup. Casas has less value , but would not bring as good a return. I don't think Abreu would bring back much at all. As always, the trick is to know who to trade and who to keep. Dombrowski was very good at that. We will find out if Breslow is. 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

920 OPS for Grissom with 8 HR in in 397 AB at age 22 in AAA.

898 OPS for Campbell with 4 HR in 70 AB at age 22 in AAA. 

Hard to really say Grissom "hit better." We also saw what Grissom did this season. 

That Grissom maintained a slightly better pace for nearly 6 times as many at bats does give him the edge here.

This season was a disaster for Grissom, although he had some injury issues and was inactive and fell behind a lot. He’s certainly shown he has as good of an offensive skill set as what Campbell has shown, and his struggles in 95 MLB at bats don’t change that.  His AAA season this year looks bad on some levels.  But he showed an extremely good K/BB…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Anthony is probably close to untouchable. Campbell bats right handed.  That makes Mayer and Teel the most likely trade candidates among the prospects. As for the regulars, Duran has the most value, but  would be a major loss to the lineup. Casas has less value , but would not bring as good a return. I don't think Abreu would bring back much at all. As always, the trick is to know who to trade and who to keep. Dombrowski was very good at that. We will find out if Breslow is. 

I agree on Anthony, but Mayer is the best SS in the organization that isn’t consistently injured.  I value that more than Campbell’s right-handed bat, especially since batting right-handed isn’t some rare skill. 
 

To me, that leaves Teel and Campbell.  Of course, Braden Montgomery and Franklin Arias are both BA Top 100 prospects that I would view as more expendable…

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Anthony is probably close to untouchable. Campbell bats right handed.  That makes Mayer and Teel the most likely trade candidates among the prospects. As for the regulars, Duran has the most value, but  would be a major loss to the lineup. Casas has less value , but would not bring as good a return. I don't think Abreu would bring back much at all. As always, the trick is to know who to trade and who to keep. Dombrowski was very good at that. We will find out if Breslow is. 

I agree with all of this, but I think Abreu would bring back a decent return- not a great one, but something we need. I'm wondering what we can get for Abreu and DHam, maybe a nice set-up RP'er. Maybe a middle RP'er and back-up catcher. In theory, that leaves more cash for pitchers.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree with all of this, but I think Abreu would bring back a decent return- not a great one, but something we need. I'm wondering what we can get for Abreu and DHam, maybe a nice set-up RP'er. Maybe a middle RP'er and back-up catcher. In theory, that leaves more cash for pitchers.

You’re aiming very low on Abreu, unless you’re trying to match years and salary…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

You’re aiming very low on Abreu, unless you’re trying to match years and salary…

Originally, I said a #3SP or very good set-up man. Yes, I was thinking 3+ year, but maybe not the equal 5 years of control.

As of not, he is a strong side platoon and plus defender. That has real value but he is not an AS.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

That Grissom maintained a slightly better pace for nearly 6 times as many at bats does give him the edge here.

This season was a disaster for Grissom, although he had some injury issues and was inactive and fell behind a lot. He’s certainly shown he has as good of an offensive skill set as what Campbell has shown, and his struggles in 95 MLB at bats don’t change that.  His AAA season this year looks bad on some levels.  But he showed an extremely good K/BB…

I'm just going to disagree with you about the offensive skill. Grissom has zero power. Campbell hits the ball with authority and had 20 HR this year. Campbell is a much better all around player. If Grissom was still a ranked prospect, he might be ranked 13th for the Sox. 

[notin]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

SoxProspects also indicated that the defense at 2B looks a little ugly and that Grissom still may ultimately need to move to OF. They believe Campbell is better defensively in the IF than Grissom. 

There’s a lot on Soxprospects, so is there an article you can link me to that discusses this?  The individual profile pages for each player are not enough.  They call Campbell an average defender and refer to Grissom as fringe-average at 2b.  That’s pretty close and not wildly specific.  Did you see something with more details?

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s a lot on Soxprospects, so is there an article you can link me to that discusses this?  The individual profile pages for each player are not enough.  They call Campbell an average defender and refer to Grissom as fringe-average at 2b.  That’s pretty close and not wildly specific.  Did you see something with more details?

No. They talk about it on their podcasts. Feel free to take a listen and be more up to date. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Originally, I said a #3SP or very good set-up man. Yes, I was thinking 3+ year, but maybe not the equal 5 years of control.

As of not, he is a strong side platoon and plus defender. That has real value but he is not an AS.

The Sox don’t need controllable SP; they have a rotation full of it.  An increasingly expensive arb-eligible starter will work.

 

BTV has Abreu worth the same as Brady Singer. Singer makes $4.85mill but has 2 arb years left.  The also have Hunter Renfroe in RF.  Is Singer worth 5 years of Abreu? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The Sox don’t need controllable SP; they have a rotation full of it.  An increasingly expensive arb-eligible starter will work.

 

BTV has Abreu worth the same as Brady Singer. Singer makes $4.85mill but has 2 arb years left.  The also have Hunter Renfroe in RF.  Is Singer worth 5 years of Abreu? 

I'd make that trade, in a heart beat.

The rotation full of controllable SP'ers is mostly near mediocre, at worst and promising, at best.

I see Houck as one, and Bello as two. I know you like Crawford more than I do, but let's call it 3.

Gio has one year left.

Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Criswell are not what I'd call sure bets, and we need more high quality SP'ers and not middle of the pack ones.

Again, I'm not expecting they add a solid SP'er. More likely, they will look for the next Criswell.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd make that trade, in a heart beat.

The rotation full of controllable SP'ers is mostly near mediocre, at worst and promising, at best.

I see Houck as one, and Bello as two. I know you like Crawford more than I do, but let's call it 3.

Gio has one year left.

Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Criswell are not what I'd call sure bets, and we need more high quality SP'ers and not middle of the pack ones.

Again, I'm not expecting they add a solid SP'er. More likely, they will look for the next Criswell.

No one outside of the Royals FO knows if they’d make that trade, but I’d bet they wouldn’t, unless they wanted to save cash (which they might if they want to bring Wacha back).   I assume they’d like to upgrade over Renfroe, but maybe they don’t care to.  Maybe they think “Why?  We’re in the AL Central.  All we need to do is beat the crap out of the White Sox, and stay close to .500 against everyone else and we can make the postseason.”   Or, maybe they have a good OF prospect.  That would derail this, too.

But Singer, a good pitcher in his arb years, is the type of trade the Sox should be looking for with Abreu…

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

No one outside of the Royals FO knows if they’d make that trade, but I’d bet they wouldn’t, unless they wanted to save cash (which they might if they want to bring Wacha back).   I assume they’d like to upgrade over Renfroe, but maybe they don’t care to.  Maybe they think “Why?  We’re in the AL Central.  All we need to do is beat the crap out of the White Sox, and stay close to .500 against everyone else and we can make the postseason.”   Or, maybe they have a good OF prospect.  That would derail this, too.

But Singer, a good pitcher in his arb years, is the type of trade the Sox should be looking for with Abreu…

I'm no expert on the KCR roster, but I can't help but think their OF does not need help:

.648 CF

.649 LF

.663 RF

.644 DH

They also had .669 at 2B, but that doesn't mean they want DHam, Grissom or E Valdez

KCR OF'ers: .681 Renfroe, .682 MJ Melendez, .659 Isbel, .575 Hampson

Maybe the fit is better than we think.

I'd give Abreu & DHam for Singer.

[moonslav59]

I really think there needs to be some serious discussion, which has probably already started, about who we want to keep, the most. We simply cannot and should not keep everyone, even if it might mean trading away someone we think has a lot of promise, or already has shown some real skills.

If we see Anthony as being on the 26 on opening day, or as soon as his extra year of control is reached, then I think we have to trade Abreu or Rafaela. Although Rafaela is a RHB and an excellent defensive CF, his bat should never be the reason we keep him, and since Duran and Anthony can play CF, well, maybe Rafaela's defense should not be an over-riding factor. It might come down to who gets us a better return: Abreu or Rafaela? I'm not so sure we bring O'Neill back, and Ref may retire, but even if neither are on the 2025 roster, I'm still fine with trading Abreu or Rafaela and go with Duran, Anthony and one of those two.  Campbell can be OF depth, and Yoshida or E Valdez could play LF, in a pinch.

I see Mayer as being considered an integral part of this team's near future and long term plan. His injury history almost rivals Story's, but I think they view him as an essential chip to hold onto. The presence of Campbell might be the only player that could make Mayer tradeable: he and the belief that maybe Story can play a full season or two. Story at SS and Campbell at 2B, with DHam, Grissom & Romy as depth might be considered good enough to take the plunge on a Mayer tarde. The same type of thinking could be used to decide on trading Campbell, but to me, K Campbell is the bluer chip, despite the defensive questions.

I'm not sure DHam or Grissom bring back enough in trade to make it worthwhile. It might make sense to trust them as good depth and take the risk of trading Mayer or Campbell.

I'm keeping Teel for two reasons: 1. Wong's defense did not improve, and he may be the worst in MLB. 2. Catchers are so hard to find in MLB. We may add a 1 year bridge to Teel Catcher.

I've heard it suggested we trade Montgomery and another second tier prospect, but I almost feel like that is a bigger risk, since their return value would be like selling low.

To me: the best plan might be to trade Mayer or Campbell (I vote Mayer) and either Rafaela or Abreu (I'm 50-50 on who.) This should be enough for a very serious upgrade of our pitching staff, and if we sign one pitcher with the entire winter budget minus a decent back-up catcher cost, we might be favorites to make the playoffs.

Keep the depth.

Spend more, and we could be a top 3-4 team in the AL.