Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe adding the Abreu to TEX and Josh Smith to SEA might get it closer.

A lot depends on how much SEA values losing Castillo's salary vs taking on the lower Yoshi deal.

They could "spend the saving" and add another piece that might tilt the balance to a "Yes."

dream on-- nobody is taking Yoshi fo more than a low ranked prospect and even then the Sox will need to take on some of his $$. m I can see it now -- we will get a lower ranked P prospect and the believers on here will note how Brez is adding to the P depth.

[harmony]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe adding the Abreu to TEX and Josh Smith to SEA might get it closer.

A lot depends on how much SEA values losing Castillo's salary vs taking on the lower Yoshi deal.

They could "spend the saving" and add another piece that might tilt the balance to a "Yes."

FWIW this season the Red Sox have a team ERA+ of 105 and the Mariners have a team ERA+ of 105.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024.shtml

Environmental factors enhance the traditional numbers of Seattle pitchers and detract from the traditional numbers of Seattle hitters.

 

 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW this season the Red Sox have a team ERA+ of 105 and the Mariners have a team ERA+ of 105.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024.shtml

Environmental factors enhance the traditional numbers of Seattle pitchers and detract from the traditional numbers of Seattle hitters.

 

 

I'm looking at your SP'ers:

129 Woo

120 Miller

113 Gilbert (106 in '23)

101 Castillo (118 in '23) & Kirby (118 in '23)

To replace Pivetta 99

[dgalehouse]

17 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW this season the Red Sox have a team ERA+ of 105 and the Mariners have a team ERA+ of 105.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024.shtml

Environmental factors enhance the traditional numbers of Seattle pitchers and detract from the traditional numbers of Seattle hitters.

 

 

Harm, Do the environmental factors have anything to do with the potential tying run getting picked off third base with one out in the tenth inning ? 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Harm, Do the environmental factors have anything to do with the potential tying run getting picked off third base with one out in the tenth inning ? 

Yes, they place a naked lady behind 3B for distraction purposes.

[moonslav59]

I know a lot has been said about the benefits of finding a taker for Yoshida and a big chunk of his contract, or returning a big contract to offset the cost per team. To me, it would really set up our 26 man roster, very well.

We could pencil in Anthony to RF and have an Abreu-Refsnyder platoon at DH, with them both also acting as reserve OF depth. (Duran is out: Ref or Abreu play LF. Rafaela is out: Anthony plays CF & Abreu RF or Duran plays CF and Abreu/Ref play LF. Anthony is out: Abreu plays RF)

I'm not expecting anything special in return. It might be nice to get an over-priced pitcher, who still has some value (maybe a LH RP'er or 6th SP.) Maybe we just get a far away prospect to clear a space on the 40.

I think this should be the first attempt. If no takers, or the return cash payments are too high, then the next likely trade candidate is Abreu. There has been some disagreement over his value and what return value we might be able to get for him, alone or in a package with someone like DHam or a lower value pitcher or prospect to sweeten the return.

After Abreu, we start getting into some complicated territory, such as the idea to trade Casas, move Devers to 1B and have someone play 3B (Story, Mayer, Meidroth or sign someone.) Other ideas might be to trade a top 4 prospects, but we better pick the right one to trade, and get the right return. I'm not sure if JH & Co. are even considering this idea.

We could also include a pitcher in any deal, as long as the pitcher get back is significantly better and has several years of control, as well- maybe Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Crawford or Criswell as part of a bigger package.

I realize these 2 and 3 for 1 deals are very hard to make in November, because teams are making difficult Rule 5 decisions and are squeezing the 40 man roster, as it is. For those teams, maybe we have to take back an unwanted player making too much money, just to get the team to accept. (Guys like Garver & Hanigan have been mentioned several times, recently, but other teams have the same types of players, they would not mind unloading.

IMO, we should try to avoid trading a top 4 prospect, but I'm not dead set against the idea. We have to give to get, and if the "get" is good enough, then we may have to bite the bullet and just do it.

I think we've beaten the SEA ideas to death, and deals for Crochet have been suggested, a lot, but what other pitchers might be out there?

[Larry Cook]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Chris martin is talking about retiring after 2025. Should we offer him $5-7M/1?

I agree! I think he has another year in the tank. But he will probably only sign with us if we are contenders in 2025! 

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW this season the Red Sox have a team ERA+ of 105 and the Mariners have a team ERA+ of 105.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024.shtml

Environmental factors enhance the traditional numbers of Seattle pitchers and detract from the traditional numbers of Seattle hitters.

 

 

the way the Sox have set themselves up Castillo at 32 does not fit their plan. They need to focus on a top young [23-27} COST CONTROLLED SP. 

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I know a lot has been said about the benefits of finding a taker for Yoshida and a big chunk of his contract, or returning a big contract to offset the cost per team. To me, it would really set up our 26 man roster, very well.

We could pencil in Anthony to RF and have an Abreu-Refsnyder platoon at DH, with them both also acting as reserve OF depth. (Duran is out: Ref or Abreu play LF. Rafaela is out: Anthony plays CF & Abreu RF or Duran plays CF and Abreu/Ref play LF. Anthony is out: Abreu plays RF)

I'm not expecting anything special in return. It might be nice to get an over-priced pitcher, who still has some value (maybe a LH RP'er or 6th SP.) Maybe we just get a far away prospect to clear a space on the 40.

I think this should be the first attempt. If no takers, or the return cash payments are too high, then the next likely trade candidate is Abreu. There has been some disagreement over his value and what return value we might be able to get for him, alone or in a package with someone like DHam or a lower value pitcher or prospect to sweeten the return.

After Abreu, we start getting into some complicated territory, such as the idea to trade Casas, move Devers to 1B and have someone play 3B (Story, Mayer, Meidroth or sign someone.) Other ideas might be to trade a top 4 prospects, but we better pick the right one to trade, and get the right return. I'm not sure if JH & Co. are even considering this idea.

We could also include a pitcher in any deal, as long as the pitcher get back is significantly better and has several years of control, as well- maybe Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Crawford or Criswell as part of a bigger package.

I realize these 2 and 3 for 1 deals are very hard to make in November, because teams are making difficult Rule 5 decisions and are squeezing the 40 man roster, as it is. For those teams, maybe we have to take back an unwanted player making too much money, just to get the team to accept. (Guys like Garver & Hanigan have been mentioned several times, recently, but other teams have the same types of players, they would not mind unloading.

IMO, we should try to avoid trading a top 4 prospect, but I'm not dead set against the idea. We have to give to get, and if the "get" is good enough, then we may have to bite the bullet and just do it.

I think we've beaten the SEA ideas to death, and deals for Crochet have been suggested, a lot, but what other pitchers might be out there?

i think we should have figured it out by now that Henry is not going to allow Brez to spend big on P. Look for 1-2 more FA  P  signings on 1-2 year deals on low-risk and high reward deals.  We won't be trading any of our top prospects as Henry values players on entry level deals. As long as the team stays around .500 all us suckers will be content.

[Hugh2]

Where do I sign up for the revolt against John Henry????

[Hugh2]

Is it tank time? Sox are one game away from having a top ten pick. 

[notin]

7 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i think we should have figured it out by now that Henry is not going to allow Brez to spend big on P. Look for 1-2 more FA  P  signings on 1-2 year deals on low-risk and high reward deals.  We won't be trading any of our top prospects as Henry values players on entry level deals. As long as the team stays around .500 all us suckers will be content.

Relief pitching is the one area where contracts have never caught up completely.  If you need to improve fast on low money, RP is the smartest way…

[notin]

7 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the way the Sox have set themselves up Castillo at 32 does not fit their plan. They need to focus on a top young [23-27} COST CONTROLLED SP. 

Is that the Sox plan? Or your plan?

I’m sure the Sox, like 29 other teams, would like younger cost-controlled SP.   Just not sure they’re turning down older SP solely due to age…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When Merloni said, "Worst offense in baseball," I didn't take it as complaining... just an ex-big leaguer and current professional analyst stating a harsh fact.

Posters can dig into plenty of statistics to argue Boston is middle-of-the-pack, but Sox fans still watching only need to cite one: 20 -- as in strikeouts last night, in another nail hammered into the coffin door. 

Here are a few stats from bb-ref... Red Sox' September: 173 Ks/548 ABs = 32%. Contrast with the club with the fewest whiffs, San Diego: 103Ks/576 ABs = 20%

The Padres were a game below .500 when they acquired contact king Luis Arraez... and now they're going to the playoffs.

Red Sox have to stop relying on sluggers who swing so hard they injure themselves into ineffectiveness: Devers, Casas, O'Neill. No more muscular athletes! Recruit more hand-eye guys, ping-pong champs and pool sharks...

 

 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

When Merloni said, "Worst offense in baseball," I didn't take it as complaining... just an ex-big leaguer and current professional analyst stating a harsh fact.

Posters can dig into plenty of statistics to argue Boston is middle-of-the-pack, but Sox fans still watching only need to cite one: 20 -- as in strikeouts last night, in another nail hammered into the coffin door. 

Here are a few stats from bb-ref... Red Sox' September: 173 Ks/548 ABs = 32%. Contrast with the club with the fewest whiffs, San Diego: 103Ks/576 ABs = 20%

The Padres were a game below .500 when they acquired contact king Luis Arraez... and now they're going to the playoffs.

Red Sox have to stop relying on sluggers who swing so hard they injure themselves into ineffectiveness: Devers, Casas, O'Neill. No more muscular athletes! Recruit more hand-eye guys, ping-pong champs and pool sharks...

 

 

More Yoshida’s and Grissom’s!   Fewer Casas’ and O’Neill’s!!

In all seriousness, the Arraez comment feels like a straw man.  The return of Tatis along with and the emergence of Merrill along were probably much bigger factors.  Not to mention their pitching…

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

More Yoshida’s and Grissom’s!   Fewer Casas’ and O’Neill’s!!

In all seriousness, the Arraez comment feels like a straw man.  The return of Tatis along with and the emergence of Merrill along were probably much bigger factors.  Not to mention their pitching…

 

The straw man don't hit the longball, but the straw man don't strike out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

More Yoshida’s and Grissom’s!   Fewer Casas’ and O’Neill’s!!

In all seriousness, the Arraez comment feels like a straw man.  The return of Tatis along with and the emergence of Merrill along were probably much bigger factors.  Not to mention their pitching…

 

I'd take Merrill and Tatis in a heartbeat in Boston, where they'd both have better K-rates - 17.5% and 21.8% - than the Whiff Sox' top SEVEN home run hitters.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Is it tank time? Sox are one game away from having a top ten pick. 

they never tank. they always win meaningless games at the end to drop a few spots down

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Is that the Sox plan? Or your plan?

I’m sure the Sox, like 29 other teams, would like younger cost-controlled SP.   Just not sure they’re turning down older SP solely due to age…

it is certainly not my plan but there is no way in he$$ I trade any of our top 3 for Castillo. At 32 he has lots of miles on his arm as well. If the Mariners want to improve their offence they can easily do so in  FA given they are not a low market team. The Sox have been selling us on these prospects for a while now and we are so far down the rabbit hole now we may as well stick to that plan.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Where do I sign up for the revolt against John Henry????

you'd have to get in a very long line but you can start by not buying any tickets or Sox merchandise.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it is certainly not my plan but there is no way in he$$ I trade any of our top 3 for Castillo. At 32 he has lots of miles on his arm as well. If the Mariners want to improve their offence they can easily do so in  FA given they are not a low market team. The Sox have been selling us on these prospects for a while now and we are so far down the rabbit hole now we may as well stick to that plan.

Castillo will not cost top prospects.  He’s a $72mill gamble at this point.

 

BTV values him at -$28.4mill.   That’s probably a bit low.  I think he has some positive value, but he’s not worth any of the Sox top 6 prospects.  More in the Meidrith/Sandlin range…

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i think we should have figured it out by now that Henry is not going to allow Brez to spend big on P. Look for 1-2 more FA  P  signings on 1-2 year deals on low-risk and high reward deals.  We won't be trading any of our top prospects as Henry values players on entry level deals. As long as the team stays around .500 all us suckers will be content.

I'm not going to disagree, but none of us have any idea how much of a winter spending budget Brez will be handed, and perhaps more importantly, how much will he be allowed to give in longer term deals.

I do not believe Sox Nation is content with .500. Many may have bought the "sham" for a year or two, and 2021 really helped JH & Co. continue the  deception, but I do not think they actually believe they can continue this for much longer.

Again, I'm not predicting or expecting even an uptick in spending, let alone a sizable one, but we just don't know. You can look at the last 2-3 year, 3-5 years and call that the definitive trend that is surely going to continue. I'm saying we don't know. You can look at JH's whole era and see so many ups and downs, with several 2 year below the tax line seasons in a row, long ago, but nothing that really compares to the post 2018 timeframe.  A 6 year sample size is large, but despite the refusal to bring back Kimbrell & Kelly or replace them, in kind, we still led the league in spending in 2019, so the sample size really is 5 years long, perhaps beginning with the Betts & Price trade and not replacing the money spent on Porcello and later, other players..

Now, if you want to use the larger sample size of 5 years, then you cannot ignore the fact that there is not 5 year trend of cutting salary. The real trend is other teams have started to spend more than we did- some much more.

CB Tax line:

$185M in 2020

$208M in 2021

236M in 2022

226M in 2023

223M in 2024

I'm not seeing a sure bet trend of budget cutting, here.

If you start from 2022, yes, we have cut 2 years in a row, but looking back at JH's  budgets, you can find several times with 2 year budget cutting. These two were $10M and then $3M.

In the past, we saw a $14M cut in just one year (2004 to 2005.) That was a bigger cut than these last 2 years combined. Fans complained then, too. We saw a 2 year cut from 2007 to 2009 ($155>147>140.) That two year decline was $15M, again, more than these last 2 years, combined. We also saw a $13M decline from 2016 to 2017. Another one year decline equal to this recent 2 year decline.

All I'm saying is that there is evidence that JH is an up and down spender, and that this could just be "another" down stretch of 2 years. The bad part about this one is that it has not been too far removed from the one massive cut from 2019 to 2020. The one that set us back light years. That cut was nearly $60M and cannot be ignored or including in the context of this recent 2 year decline. Compound all this with the fact that 3-4 teams have increased spending exponentially and another 4-5 have significantly  increased spending, and the effect is staggering. (It looks like 3 straight years of 78-84 is possible.)

I'm not counting on even equal spending from 2024.

I'm not counting on slightly more spending, although I do think we might spend up to the tax line- maybe a $15-17M increase from 2024.

I''m far from expecting us to go over the tax line in 2025, but I do think it is possible we do, at some point after 2025.

To me, with all the salary coming off the books, this winter, it would be easy for JH to cut or keep the budget the same. I hope he doesn't. I think even keeping the budget the same would give Brez a sizable winter budget, if coupled with a big trade might be enough to get us to the next level, but IMO, we need to spend up to the line to have a shot at being serious 2025 contenders. And, this would likely need a big trade or two, along with an increased budget. I don't think that is likely.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not going to disagree, but none of us have any idea how much of a winter spending budget Brez will be handed, and perhaps more importantly, how much will he be allowed to give in longer term deals.

I do not believe Sox Nation is content with .500. Many may have bought the "sham" for a year or two, and 2021 really helped JH & Co. continue the  deception, but I do not think they actually believe they can continue this for much longer.

Again, I'm not predicting or expecting even an uptick in spending, let alone a sizable one, but we just don't know. You can look at the last 2-3 year, 3-5 years and call that the definitive trend that is surely going to continue. I'm saying we don't know. You can look at JH's whole era and see so many ups and downs, with several 2 year below the tax line seasons in a row, long ago, but nothing that really compares to the post 2018 timeframe.  A 6 year sample size is large, but despite the refusal to bring back Kimbrell & Kelly or replace them, in kind, we still led the league in spending in 2019, so the sample size really is 5 years long, perhaps beginning with the Betts & Price trade and not replacing the money spent on Porcello and later, other players..

Now, if you want to use the larger sample size of 5 years, then you cannot ignore the fact that there is not 5 year trend of cutting salary. The real trend is other teams have started to spend more than we did- some much more.

CB Tax line:

$185M in 2020

$208M in 2021

236M in 2022

226M in 2023

223M in 2024

I'm not seeing a sure bet trend of budget cutting, here.

If you start from 2022, yes, we have cut 2 years in a row, but looking back at JH's  budgets, you can find several times with 2 year budget cutting. These two were $10M and then $3M.

In the past, we saw a $14M cut in just one year (2004 to 2005.) That was a bigger cut than these last 2 years combined. Fans complained then, too. We saw a 2 year cut from 2007 to 2009 ($155>147>140.) That two year decline was $15M, again, more than these last 2 years, combined. We also saw a $13M decline from 2016 to 2017. Another one year decline equal to this recent 2 year decline.

All I'm saying is that there is evidence that JH is an up and down spender, and that this could just be "another" down stretch of 2 years. The bad part about this one is that it has not been too far removed from the one massive cut from 2019 to 2020. The one that set us back light years. That cut was nearly $60M and cannot be ignored or including in the context of this recent 2 year decline. Compound all this with the fact that 3-4 teams have increased spending exponentially and another 4-5 have significantly  increased spending, and the effect is staggering. (It looks like 3 straight years of 78-84 is possible.)

I'm not counting on even equal spending from 2024.

I'm not counting on slightly more spending, although I do think we might spend up to the tax line- maybe a $15-17M increase from 2024.

I''m far from expecting us to go over the tax line in 2025, but I do think it is possible we do, at some point after 2025.

To me, with all the salary coming off the books, this winter, it would be easy for JH to cut or keep the budget the same. I hope he doesn't. I think even keeping the budget the same would give Brez a sizable winter budget, if coupled with a big trade might be enough to get us to the next level, but IMO, we need to spend up to the line to have a shot at being serious 2025 contenders. And, this would likely need a big trade or two, along with an increased budget. I don't think that is likely.

Trying to figure out the budget is a Fool’s Errand.  There is no reason to expect it to increase and it’s much easier to see Henry rationalizing a decrease…

[dgalehouse]

Fire Fatse  ? 

[moonslav59]

To me, there are two major factors in what we can do about improving the roster for 2025 (and hopefully beyond.)

1. The winter and long term spending budget handed to Brez is crucial. If the budget is slashed from 2024's, then nothing short of 1-2 major trades can possibly help us vastly improve. If the budget is set near 2014's, that would give Brez $35-45M to spend on pitching. That might be enough, if he does not swing and miss like he did with Gio and the Sale trade. If Brez is allowed to spend to just below the tax line, it might be $55-65M, which, IMO, is enough to make us serious contenders- again if he spends wisely.

2. JH's willingness to allow Brez to trade low cost players and or prospects for a pitcher or two that will instantly improve the staff. I'm also assuming Brez wants to do that and won't try to talk upper management out of the idea.

It seems obvious to me that we have a very strong everyday player roster, plus several ML ready prospects not on the roster or even needing Rule 5 protection, this winter. We need to trade from strength, hope we pick the right guys to part with and most importantly pick the player(s) we get very wisely. I realize there are 2 things we can get wrong in a trade. The Sale trade emphasizes just how badly it can go, when both parts come up way short, but we can't be afraid to trade quality players for pitching.

We are all set at catcher for years, assuming Teel works out. We will not be adding a top catcher, this winter, but we might try a 1 year bridge signing to Teel.

1B is all set, but has very little depth, unless you count Devers as a possible 1Bman.

2B has been a sore spot for 5 years, and SS for 2 years but I think we are more than all set at middle infield with Story and Mayer at SS, and Campbell pllus Story or Mayer at 2B. Our depth looks much better, now, with DHam, Romy and Meidroth.

3B is Devers foreevers (see move to 1B. ) Meidroth looks like good depth. Can Mayer play 3B? Story? Campbell?

The OF is overloaded with the addition of Anthony and the return to CF by Rafaela. We lose O'Neill and maybe Ref, but RHB Campbell can play OF, too. I think we can and should trade a LHB OF'er, this winter.

DH looks like Yoshida for 3 more years. We have Abreu-Ref and EValdez as DH depth.

To me, our pitching staff has 3-4 holes to fill- all with high quality pitchers- not slight improvements over pitchers like Pivetta, Weissert, Bernardino and Kelly.

I'm sure Sox management sees it more like 2-3 holes, but if we add only 2, they better be a top SP'ers and very good closer. If it's 3, it better be a solid #2 type SP'er, a good closer and set-up man.

I don't think these asks are radical. It should be very possible to make happen, even without massive spending.

 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Trying to figure out the budget is a Fool’s Errand.  There is no reason to expect it to increase and it’s much easier to see Henry rationalizing a decrease…

I agree, but I would put the odds at the CB tax budget declining from 2024 to 2025 at very close to 49-51 or just slightly below  that.

I don't think it looks like the slam dunk Randy seems to imply it is.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not going to disagree, but none of us have any idea how much of a winter spending budget Brez will be handed, and perhaps more importantly, how much will he be allowed to give in longer term deals.

I do not believe Sox Nation is content with .500. Many may have bought the "sham" for a year or two, and 2021 really helped JH & Co. continue the  deception, but I do not think they actually believe they can continue this for much longer.

Again, I'm not predicting or expecting even an uptick in spending, let alone a sizable one, but we just don't know. You can look at the last 2-3 year, 3-5 years and call that the definitive trend that is surely going to continue. I'm saying we don't know. You can look at JH's whole era and see so many ups and downs, with several 2 year below the tax line seasons in a row, long ago, but nothing that really compares to the post 2018 timeframe.  A 6 year sample size is large, but despite the refusal to bring back Kimbrell & Kelly or replace them, in kind, we still led the league in spending in 2019, so the sample size really is 5 years long, perhaps beginning with the Betts & Price trade and not replacing the money spent on Porcello and later, other players..

Now, if you want to use the larger sample size of 5 years, then you cannot ignore the fact that there is not 5 year trend of cutting salary. The real trend is other teams have started to spend more than we did- some much more.

CB Tax line:

$185M in 2020

$208M in 2021

236M in 2022

226M in 2023

223M in 2024

I'm not seeing a sure bet trend of budget cutting, here.

If you start from 2022, yes, we have cut 2 years in a row, but looking back at JH's  budgets, you can find several times with 2 year budget cutting. These two were $10M and then $3M.

In the past, we saw a $14M cut in just one year (2004 to 2005.) That was a bigger cut than these last 2 years combined. Fans complained then, too. We saw a 2 year cut from 2007 to 2009 ($155>147>140.) That two year decline was $15M, again, more than these last 2 years, combined. We also saw a $13M decline from 2016 to 2017. Another one year decline equal to this recent 2 year decline.

All I'm saying is that there is evidence that JH is an up and down spender, and that this could just be "another" down stretch of 2 years. The bad part about this one is that it has not been too far removed from the one massive cut from 2019 to 2020. The one that set us back light years. That cut was nearly $60M and cannot be ignored or including in the context of this recent 2 year decline. Compound all this with the fact that 3-4 teams have increased spending exponentially and another 4-5 have significantly  increased spending, and the effect is staggering. (It looks like 3 straight years of 78-84 is possible.)

I'm not counting on even equal spending from 2024.

I'm not counting on slightly more spending, although I do think we might spend up to the tax line- maybe a $15-17M increase from 2024.

I''m far from expecting us to go over the tax line in 2025, but I do think it is possible we do, at some point after 2025.

To me, with all the salary coming off the books, this winter, it would be easy for JH to cut or keep the budget the same. I hope he doesn't. I think even keeping the budget the same would give Brez a sizable winter budget, if coupled with a big trade might be enough to get us to the next level, but IMO, we need to spend up to the line to have a shot at being serious 2025 contenders. And, this would likely need a big trade or two, along with an increased budget. I don't think that is likely.

the one thing that matters is that the Sox were in the top 3 payrolls under DD but now are not in the top 10. What the amount Henry is spending matters not to me.  Salaries have gone up and Henry is not keeping pace. He is trying to compete with short term-bounce back players and little to no pitching. A recipe to where we are at now.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Castillo will not cost top prospects.  He’s a $72mill gamble at this point.

 

BTV values him at -$28.4mill.   That’s probably a bit low.  I think he has some positive value, but he’s not worth any of the Sox top 6 prospects.  More in the Meidrith/Sandlin range…

I agree that seattle wants offence and players who can provide it next year. what players do you think they would consider off our roster in a trade for Castillo??  Please don't say Yoshi.

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I agree that seattle wants offence and players who can provide it next year. what players do you think they would consider off our roster in a trade for Castillo??  Please don't say Yoshi.

Just say no to Castillo. 
if we are doing a deal with Seattle, the only Seattle pitcher that I think works in Fenway is Bryce Miller. I do not think we waste time talking about the other pitchers! 
except for Anthony, Campbell, teel and Montgomery, every other position  prospect needs to be on the trade list along with every position player in Boston not named devers or rafeala 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the one thing that matters is that the Sox were in the top 3 payrolls under DD but now are not in the top 10. What the amount Henry is spending matters not to me.  Salaries have gone up and Henry is not keeping pace. He is trying to compete with short term-bounce back players and little to no pitching. A recipe to where we are at now.

Going up $28M from '21 to '22 may not of been keeping pace, but JH added a lot to the budget.

It's been 2 years in a row, he did not keep pace. Calling that a trend that is sure to continue to 2025 is pure opinion.

Again, I do not disagree, but I am far from sure about anything JH does. If I had to guess, I'd say he does not increase the budget, but it's pretty close to 50-50.

Going back to 2021 to 2022, while the CB Tax number went up $28M, Steve the Ump had the actual salry going up only $15M, which was about a 9% increase.

Here is what some other teams did, and I know this matters more to you than the Sox numbers:

2021>2022 Teams that passed us

Mets: +$96M

PHI: +$46M

SD: +$37M

(To me, I think is not fair to expect JH to match these three, so going from #3 to #6 was reasonable.) JH would have had to spend $14M more to not let SD pass us ($15M to $29M and over the tax line.)

The teams that passed us after 2022 were on JH more than they going nutty with spending. My point is a two year stretch is not something that makes it a sure bet JH goes 3 years in a row like that.