A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

Chris Davis went from 2017-20 having seasons with more k's than TB's.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Gallo's K-TB ratio may be worse than Davis's, but I can't bring myself to do the work.

[notin]

Double check 2021. It's total bases, not hits.

 

Ok, three years running…

[notin]

I think Gallo's K-TB ratio may be worse than Davis's, but I can't bring myself to do the work.

 

Of course getting more Ks than TBs is easy to do. The other ones (more triples than Ks, more HRs than singles) are hard.

 

More HRs than Ks is also hard. But probably been done a few times. Joe DiMaggio’s career totals were very close for HRs and Ks, so he probably did it a few times…

[Duran Is The Man]

True, but even beyond Mookie, we had a weak looking farm that produced only Houck between Devers and bello/Casas. We had aging players. We had players nearing the end of arbs.

 

Had we kept Betts and the same budgets after 2019, our future would still not looked too good.

 

awww....********. the money they wasted on a bunch of mediocre crap would have easily paid for Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

awww....********. the money they wasted on a bunch of mediocre crap would have easily paid for Betts.

 

Let's see, in 2023:

Instead of Story (23 mill AAV), Yoshida (18) and Kluber (10), total 51 mill,

Could have been Betts 30 mill + 21 mill to other needs.

[notin]

Let's see, in 2023:

Instead of Story (23 mill AAV), Yoshida (18) and Kluber (10), total 51 mill,

Could have been Betts 30 mill + 21 mill to other needs.

 

 

You really do need to look at the total.

 

Story ($143mill) + Yoshida ($102mill) + Kluber ($10mill) really isn’t close. From a yearly perspective, sure it works out, but only for 5 years and then Betts costs significantly more than those 3. Right?

[Bellhorn04]

You really do need to look at the total.

 

Story ($143mill) + Yoshida ($102mill) + Kluber ($10mill) really isn’t close. From a yearly perspective, sure it works out, but only for 5 years and then Betts costs significantly more than those 3. Right?

 

Both numbers matter.

 

But moon was talking about budgets, which are an annual thing. And we know the Red Sox budgets are heavily influenced by luxury tax issues, which are also annual.

 

It goes without saying that to sign a player of Betts's caliber it's going to be a long commitment.

[Nick]

Yes the Sox waste tons of $$$$$.

[Nick]

I have read that the Sox had scouted Yoshida for some time.

 

Was he going to be that much better than say Duval and O'Neil's of the world who cost much less?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes the Sox waste tons of $$$$$.

 

Many teams do, of course. The Sox are still hellaciously rich and have cleared a lot of the truly dead money.

 

As I like to say, it's really the fans' money, they're the ones who keep it flowing into the coffers. Henry and the other owners are the ones who profit from it. They have never been personally damaged by a bad contract.

[moonslav59]

awww....********. the money they wasted on a bunch of mediocre crap would have easily paid for Betts.

 

Later, yes, but you have to include half-Price, too.

 

They spent next to nothing in 2020 and in 2021 we spent $10M on Richards, $8M on Ottavino, $7M on Kike, $5M on Perez and $3M each on Renfroe & Marwin. That's over $35M, but not as much as Betts + 1/2 Price added to the raises these guys got (Do we trade Sale or Bogey to keep Betts? Would we still be a contender?)

 

$15M>$25.6M Sale (AAV, more in actual salary)

$12M> $20M Bogey

$4.3M> $8.3M ERod

That's over $22M right there.

 

It's not BS.

 

2020: Betts + 1/2 Price= $43M (-$16M since Price opted out for COVID)=$27M

$27M + $22M in raises=$49M

 

2021: Betts + 1/2 Price= $46M

 

Look, I wanted to keep Betts at any cost, but let's not pretend all our problems would have been solved, had JH kept the same budgets in place.

 

Better? Yes. Still major issues? Yes.

 

By the time we signed Story, we were back to what we would have paid Betts.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I have read that the Sox had scouted Yoshida for some time.

 

Was he going to be that much better than say Duval and O'Neil's of the world who cost much less?

 

For reasons unknown the scouts failed to take into account his bad defensive skills and total lack of speed. Once you realized he was a DH, you realized he was an inferior version of JD Martinez at very similar money. And the fact that Bloom signed another DH last year in Turner showed that he kind of didn't know what the f*** he was doing in constructing a major league baseball team.

[moonslav59]

Let's see, in 2023:

Instead of Story (23 mill AAV), Yoshida (18) and Kluber (10), total 51 mill,

Could have been Betts 30 mill + 21 mill to other needs.

 

Do the math for '20 and '21, and tell me which star(s) we trade away to make the budget.

 

Take away all the signings, and despite many being bad or so,so, who plays all our open positions?

[Bellhorn04]

Later, yes, but you have to include half-Price, too.

 

They spent next to nothing in 2020 and in 2021 we spent $10M on Richards, $8M on Ottavino, $7M on Kike, $5M on Perez and $3M each on Renfroe & Marwin. That's over $35M, but not as much as Betts + 1/2 Price added to the raises these guys got (Do we trade Sale or Bogey to keep Betts? Would we still be a contender?)

 

$15M>$25.6M Sale (AAV, more in actual salary)

$12M> $20M Bogey

$4.3M> $8.3M ERod

That's over $22M right there.

 

It's not BS.

 

2020: Betts + 1/2 Price= $43M (-$16M since Price opted out for COVID)=$27M

$27M + $22M in raises=$49M

 

2021: Betts + 1/2 Price= $46M

 

Look, I wanted to keep Betts at any cost, but let's not pretend all our problems would have been solved, had JH kept the same budgets in place.

 

Better? Yes. Still major issues? Yes.

 

By the time we signed Story, we were back to what we would have paid Betts.

 

 

If they kept Betts they had to get through a rough couple of years payroll and tax wise, that was all. It wasn't a horrible situation. Not when you're as rich as the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Do the math for '20 and '21, and tell me which star(s) we trade away to make the budget.

 

Take away all the signings, and despite many being bad or so,so, who plays all our open positions?

 

See my post above.

[moonslav59]

See my post above.

 

BS was called on my supposition that the budget would be the same.

 

We can't keep Betts & Price and all the contract extensions that kicked in in 2020 and meet the budget, even if we signed zero FAs.

 

We'd have to trade salary, somehow, someway. I'm not saying it's impossible, and I wish we could have found a way.

 

It's easy to just say trade Price and half his money for something else. Look, in hindsight and say, trade Sale right after his extension kicked it.

 

Saying the Sox are/were rich enough to spend more is something we have been saying for 5 years. That was not part of my point. Of course, that solves the problem, but my point was about how we keep Betts in 2020 and 2021 without trading someone like Sale, Bogey, JD plus somehow finding a taker for 1/2 Price without giving up Betts.

 

Do we trade Bogey & 1/2 Price?

Sale & 1/2 Price (Yes, in hindsight)

JD and 1/2 Price.

 

(Oh, and I forgot about the Nate re-signing. Do we trade him and 1/2 Price to meet Bett's contract cost?)

 

We also never replaced Porcello and several others that bolted, along the way.

[Duran Is The Man]

For reasons unknown the scouts failed to take into account his bad defensive skills and total lack of speed. Once you realized he was a DH, you realized he was an inferior version of JD Martinez at very similar money. And the fact that Bloom signed another DH last year in Turner showed that he kind of didn't know what the f*** he was doing in constructing a major league baseball team.

 

it is just f***ing insane that this front office has no clue on how to build a team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

it is just f***ing insane that this front office has no clue on how to build a team.

 

They're about to thin the herd... and I bet Theo suggested to Brez the outside consulting firm -- so no one new looks like a Molly Hatchet album cover.

Edited May 10, 2024 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Elktonnick]

I suspect that Theo immediately recognized that the FO has become an overstaffed bureaucracy not equal to the sum of its parts.

[moonslav59]

They're about to thin the herd... and I bet Theo suggested to Brez the outside consulting firm -- so no one new looks like a Molly Hatchet album cover.

 

LOL, always a joy reading your posts.

[moonslav59]

Since the 2020 budget is hard to pick apart, due to COVID, lets just skip over that impossible situation and go to 2021. The season opening budget, according to cots was $180M, which was $56M less than the 2019 budget that included letting Kimbrel and Kelly go.

 

Let's assume we kept Betts and Price, and we can look at dumping 1/2 Price later. Here would be the 2021 team and budget, after taking away anyone signed after 2019 (AAV numbers):

 

31.0 Price

30.4 Betts (These two would have taken up over 1/3 of the $180M budget, alone.)

25.6 Sale (extended before 2020)

22.0 JD (signed in 2018)

20.0 Bogey (extended before 2020)

17.0 Eovaldi (re-signed before 2019)

$136M for just 6 players. That leaves $44M for the remaining 34 players on the 40.

 

8.3 ERod (Arb was optional, but obvious)

4.6 Devers (Arb was mandatory)

4.5 Vaz (signed before 2019)

4.5 Barnes (Arb was pretty obviously accepted)

This looks like a pretty automatic $22M, which brings us to $158M for 10 players. Add another $2M for the 14 players on the 40, who are in the minors, and we are at $160M.

 

That leaves $20M to fill the other $16 open slots on the 26. Good luck building a winning team around Betts in 2021.

 

I assume no signings after 2020, and no bringing JBJ back.

I assume we still trade Beni to save $3M.

I assume we still make the Pivetta trade. Assume we still get to pick Whitlock. (I'm cherry-picking only the good moves from post 2019 and pre 2021)

1.6 Plawecki (Could have gone min wage, here)

1.3 Brasier (Could have been traded or DFA'd)

Min wage:

1. Pivetta (SP)

2. Arroyo (FT 2B)

3. Josh Taylor (RP)

4. Dalbec (1B)

5. Whitlock (RP)

6. DHern (RP)

7. P Valdez (RP)

8. Chavis (UT)

9. Cordero (LF)

10. Marcus Wilson (CF)

 

The team:

SP1 Nate

SP2 Sale

SP3 ERod

SP4 Price

SP5 Pivetta

RP1 Barnes

RP2-8 Taylor, DHern, Valdez, Brasier or Min wage, Min wage, Min wage, Min wage, Min wage

 

C Vaz + min wage C

1B Dalbec

2B Arroyo

SS Bogey

3B Devers

LF Cordero

CF M Wilson

RF Betts

DH JD

 

Now, let's assume we could trade Price +$16M per year for a prospect (big what if), we'd have had $15M to spend on a few slots:

$7M CF Kike?

$5M SP Perez?

$3M LF Renfroe?

This team might be better than the 2021 Red Sox were, but there are still some major problems. How would our extended future look after this team's 2021 season?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Since the 2020 budget is hard to pick apart, due to COVID, lets just skip over that impossible situation and go to 2021. The season opening budget, according to cots was $180M, which was $56M less than the 2019 budget that included letting Kimbrel and Kelly go.

 

 

Someone mentioned Kimbrel is already struggling for the Baltimore Young Superstar Darlings. He's the same closer who began to lose his command and control in crunch time for the greatest Red Sox team of last decade. Kimbrel was 30 years old way back in 2018.

 

It's amazing he hasn't regained his glory since then; his arm has had another half decade of overthrowing to get stronger -- you'd think the scar tissue from micro tears of finishing all those high leverage games must have calcified into internal armor by now!

 

And I can't believe my hair hasn't grown back. Or that I lose more muscle mass every year. Or chicks who used to do a double-take when they saw me, now look away quickly -- as if I'm some creepy old guy...

[Bellhorn04]

BS was called on my supposition that the budget would be the same.

 

We can't keep Betts & Price and all the contract extensions that kicked in in 2020 and meet the budget, even if we signed zero FAs.

 

We'd have to trade salary, somehow, someway. I'm not saying it's impossible, and I wish we could have found a way.

 

It's easy to just say trade Price and half his money for something else. Look, in hindsight and say, trade Sale right after his extension kicked it.

 

Saying the Sox are/were rich enough to spend more is something we have been saying for 5 years. That was not part of my point. Of course, that solves the problem, but my point was about how we keep Betts in 2020 and 2021 without trading someone like Sale, Bogey, JD plus somehow finding a taker for 1/2 Price without giving up Betts.

 

Do we trade Bogey & 1/2 Price?

Sale & 1/2 Price (Yes, in hindsight)

JD and 1/2 Price.

 

(Oh, and I forgot about the Nate re-signing. Do we trade him and 1/2 Price to meet Bett's contract cost?)

 

We also never replaced Porcello and several others that bolted, along the way.

 

The mistake obviously was not getting the extension done with Betts. Once that happened they turned to Bogey and Sale.

 

John Henry just didn't think Betts was going to be worth 12 years and $360 mill. He drew the line too low. It's pretty simple, really.

 

All that said, it's easier to judge what a mistake it was when we've seen Betts prove it with the Dodgers over an extended period.

[Old Red]

The mistake obviously was not getting the extension done with Betts. Once that happened they turned to Bogey and Sale.

 

John Henry just didn't think Betts was going to be worth 12 years and $360 mill. He drew the line too low. It's pretty simple, really.

 

All that said, it's easier to judge what a mistake it was when we've seen Betts prove it with the Dodgers over an extended period.

 

One BIG mistake in not locking up Mookie led to another BIG mistake in extending Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

BTW Betts has a 3.2 bWAR on May 10.

[Bellhorn04]

One BIG mistake in not locking up Mookie led to another BIG mistake in extending Sale.

 

If they got the extension done with Mookie, they might have done that extension with Sale anyway and not done the one with Bogaerts.

 

They were actually pretty transparent with the fans when they had their press conference after 2018. They said they didn't think they'd be able to keep all 3.

[jad]

Someone mentioned Kimbrel is already struggling for the Baltimore Young Superstar Darlings. He's the same closer who began to lose his command and control in crunch time for the greatest Red Sox team of last decade. Kimbrel was 30 years old way back in 2018.

 

It's amazing he hasn't regained his glory since then; his arm has had another half decade of overthrowing to get stronger -- you'd think the scar tissue from micro tears of finishing all those high leverage games must have calcified into internal armor by now!

 

And I can't believe my hair hasn't grown back. Or that I lose more muscle mass every year. Or chicks who used to do a double-take when they saw me, now look away quickly -- as if I'm some creepy old guy...

 

Wow. Poor guy. None of that has happened to me in the past century and a half.

[Bellhorn04]

Wow. Poor guy. None of that has happened to me in the past century and a half.

 

Okay Mr. Struldbrug.

[mvp 78]

You really do need to look at the total.

 

Story ($143mill) + Yoshida ($102mill) + Kluber ($10mill) really isn’t close. From a yearly perspective, sure it works out, but only for 5 years and then Betts costs significantly more than those 3. Right?

 

Just swap Betts' 30M for Raffy and trade Raffy after going all in for 2022. Reset the cap in 2023. Spend in 2024.