A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Yes, and I know a lot of this is the bipolar syndrome that the early season can bring.

 

On the other hand, you picked them to win 79 and I picked them to win 80, and I don't see much reason to alter those projections.

 

Going into the season with lower or much lower expectations may or may not affect how we view this season's results.

 

I'm enjoying the good pitching and watching the growth of some of our newbies- like Abreu and Rafaela. I'm liking our catching tandem, much more, this year. I'd rather watch O'Neill than Dugo dog it up the line. Duran seems to be up and down, but I'm beginning to think we can actually count on him to be pretty good, going forward. Devers is always fun to watch at the plate.

 

The losing sucks, of course, but feeling better about the extended future helps me get through it a bit easier. I know I may be in the minority on this opinion, and watching teams like the Braves play so well, does not make it easier, as they have some outstanding younger players that makes their extended future look better than ours. (The O's, too.)

 

It's not all fluffy going forward, but to me, it looks a little better now than I felt over the winter.

[moonslav59]

There's no need to worry about the 2024 Red Sox. Their fate is pretty much assured.

 

When we look back the loss of Casas will likely be seen as a crusher to any chances of making the playoffs.

 

We needed/need too many things to go right, all at once. The Casas, Story and Gio major injuries will likely outweigh a whole bunch of things going right.,

[Bellhorn04]

Going into the season with lower or much lower expectations may or may not affect how we view this season's results.

 

I'm enjoying the good pitching and watching the growth of some of our newbies- like Abreu and Rafaela. I'm liking our catching tandem, much more, this year. I'd rather watch O'Neill than Dugo dog it up the line. Duran seems to be up and down, but I'm beginning to think we can actually count on him to be pretty good, going forward. Devers is always fun to watch at the plate.

 

The losing sucks, of course, but feeling better about the extended future helps me get through it a bit easier. I know I may be in the minority on this opinion, and watching teams like the Braves play so well, does not make it easier, as they have some outstanding younger players that makes their extended future look better than ours. (The O's, too.)

 

It's not all fluffy going forward, but to me, it looks a little better now than I felt over the winter.

 

I mostly agree with all that, and yet, I still can't help thinking the Sox front office has kind of lured us into having lower expectations now.

[mvp 78]

Yes, and I know a lot of this is the bipolar syndrome that the early season can bring.

 

On the other hand, you picked them to win 79 and I picked them to win 80, and I don't see much reason to alter those projections.

 

Yeah, that's why I don't know why people are getting so stuck on the rollercoaster this early. Just be happy that the pitching looks good and that the team has been more fun to watch than last year. They are probably going to be a .500 team and there may be some signs of life for the future. The Debby Downers will find all the rain clouds to complain about. Pollyannas will say that they are only a few games out of the Wild Card even though they are 40-41 or whatever. I'll just keep cashing the company's checks and posting through it.

[mvp 78]

Why assume I'm worrying?

 

It's wild to even LOOK at the standings this early.

[Bellhorn04]

It's wild to even LOOK at the standings this early.

 

I don't know man, if anything the power teams seem to be separating themselves early. Dodgers/Braves/Phillies/Yankees/Orioles are all playing .650 ball.

[mvp 78]

I don't know man, if anything the power teams seem to be separating themselves early. Dodgers/Braves/Phillies/Yankees/Orioles are all playing .650 ball.

 

Yup, I'm sure there will be 5 teams that win 100+ games.

[Old Red]

Yeah, that's why I don't know why people are getting so stuck on the rollercoaster this early. Just be happy that the pitching looks good and that the team has been more fun to watch than last year. They are probably going to be a .500 team and there may be some signs of life for the future. The Debby Downers will find all the rain clouds to complain about. Pollyannas will say that they are only a few games out of the Wild Card even though they are 40-41 or whatever. I'll just keep cashing the company's checks and posting through it.

 

Sell! Sell! Sell! 🤫

[Bellhorn04]

The Orioles, BTW, have a huge Craig Kimbrel Problem. I suspect he will be removed from the closer spot now.

[Bellhorn04]

Yup, I'm sure there will be 5 teams that win 100+ games.

 

Well, there were 4 that won 99+ last year, not far off.

[Old Red]

I don't know man, if anything the power teams seem to be separating themselves early. Dodgers/Braves/Phillies/Yankees/Orioles are all playing .650 ball.

 

I don’t care if the O’s, and Yankees each win 120 games. The Red Sox aren’t in that class. It’s all the other teams the Red Sox have to worry about of having any hopes of a postseason.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t care if the O’s, and Yankees each win 120 games. The Red Sox aren’t in that class. It’s all the other teams the Red Sox have to worry about of having any hopes of a postseason.

 

We're The Little Engine That Could (Or Not). We're Scrappy U_______s.

[Old Red]

We're The Little Engine That Could (Or Not). We're Scrappy U_______s.

 

Win some lose some, win some lose some,win some lose some.

[Bellhorn04]

Next up, we face a team that's right at our level of mediocrity, the 18-18 Nats.

[moonslav59]

I mostly agree with all that, and yet, I still can't help thinking the Sox front office has kind of lured us into having lower expectations now.

 

Sounds right, but I do have higher expectations for the future than I did starting about midway through 2019 to midway 2021 and then again after the midway point of 2022 to now.

 

I know that ain't worth squat to some posters, but it does give me some comfort.

 

Don't get me wrong: this sucks. It has for 4 out of the last 5 years, and counting.

 

I am not getting my hopes up that JH will change his recent ways, which are not as bad as many make it out to be, but I'm not convinced he will never spend bigly, again, either.

[Bellhorn04]

Sounds right, but I do have higher expectations for the future than I did starting about midway through 2019 to midway 2021 and then again after the midway point of 2022 to now.

 

I know that ain't worth squat to some posters, but it does give me some comfort.

 

Don't get me wrong: this sucks. It has for 4 out of the last 5 years, and counting.

 

I am not getting my hopes up that JH will change his recent ways, which are not as bad as many make it out to be, but I'm not convinced he will never spend bigly, again, either.

 

You are a master at covering all the bases in one post, moon.

[moonslav59]

It's wild to even LOOK at the standings this early.

 

To each his own. I like paying attention to how we are doing compared to others, but I would not think it's "worrying" to any extent.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's no need to worry about the 2024 Red Sox. Their fate is pretty much assured.

 

When we look back the loss of Casas will likely be seen as a crusher to any chances of making the playoffs.

 

Casas is a presence, even with umps on a mission to call strikes on him because he keeps yapping. Sale carved up probably the Sox' two best players so far this season -- Duran and Abreu -- three Ks each, like they were lefty-hitting minor leaguers. Maybe the line-up misses Yoshida more than fans would admit; at least he makes contact...

 

The Sox' batting order of whiffers is in dire need of a guy like Arraez, someone with a 7.5% K rate. I'm not saying Arraez specifically -- not advocating trading a Pablo Lopez or four prospects for him -- but how much better would Boston be if there was just one guy who could consistently TOUCH the ball with a baserunner on third and less than two outs?

 

How did Nellie Fox make the Hall of Fame? Here's one stat: 2.1% career K rate. He averaged 15 strikeouts per year in 19 seasons. The 2024 Red Sox average 10 Ks per GAME.

[moonslav59]

You are a master at covering all the bases in one post, moon.

 

Do you feel better about our extended future than you did near the end of 2019? (I'm pretty sure most do as compared to after 2020.)

 

Does that have any value?

[moonslav59]

Casas is a presence, even with umps on a mission to call strikes on him because he keeps yapping. Sale carved up probably the Sox' two best players so far this season -- Duran and Abreu -- three Ks each, like they were lefty-hitting minor leaguers. Maybe the line-up misses Yoshida more than fans would admit; at least he makes contact...

 

The Sox' batting order of whiffers is in dire need of a guy like Arraez, someone with a 7.5% K rate. I'm not saying Arraez specifically -- not advocating trading a Pablo Lopez or four prospects for him -- but how much better would Boston be if there was just one guy who could consistently TOUCH the ball with a baserunner on third and less than two outs?

 

How did Nellie Fox make the Hall of Fame? Here's one stat: 2.1% career K rate. He averaged 15 strikeouts per year in 19 seasons. The 2024 Red Sox average 10 Ks per GAME.

 

Love this post, and I'm not even a big fan of fretting about high K rates (or low ones for pitchers who get outs in other ways.)

[Old Red]

Do you feel better about our extended future than you did near the end of 2019? (I'm pretty sure most do as compared to after 2020.)

 

Does that have any value?

 

The only thing i thought about at the end of 2019 was 2020. The only thing I’m concerned about now after the Celtics, and Bruins is the 2024 Red Sox. Like Ive said many times if you’re not in it to try, and get in, and win it then don’t play at all. You should never throw a year away. Just, because the future may appear brighter certainly does not guarantee success.

[Bellhorn04]

Do you feel better about our extended future than you did near the end of 2019? (I'm pretty sure most do as compared to after 2020.)

 

Does that have any value?

 

As I said in my reply to your earlier post, I mostly agree.

 

There are definitely some bright spots to temper the frustration. But still, I can't say I'm happy with this new Red Sox era of mediocrity and future-gazing.

[moonslav59]

As I said in my reply to your earlier post, I mostly agree.

 

There are definitely some bright spots to temper the frustration. But still, I can't say I'm happy with this new Red Sox era of mediocrity and future-gazing.

 

Agreed, but it beats mediocrity with the future looking bleak, like after 2019 and 2020.

 

It doesn't make me content, but happiness is always relative and at varying levels on a scale.

[Old Red]

Agreed, but it beats mediocrity with the future looking bleak, like after 2019 and 2020.

 

It doesn't make me content, but happiness is always relative and at varying levels on a scale.

 

What made the future look bleak after 2019 was getting rid of Mookie.

[notin]

What made the future look bleak after 2019 was getting rid of Mookie.

 

Mookie should have been extended before 2019 ever got here...

[notin]

The only thing i thought about at the end of 2019 was 2020. The only thing I’m concerned about now after the Celtics, and Bruins is the 2024 Red Sox. Like Ive said many times if you’re not in it to try, and get in, and win it then don’t play at all. You should never throw a year away. Just, because the future may appear brighter certainly does not guarantee success.

 

"Rebuilding years" is a quaint little euphemism for "going cheap." Far too many teams have gone that route only to stay on it far longer than anticipated. Quite often the only real accomplishment is saving cash. And even of there is a brief period of semi-success, it is very often followed up with another "rebuilding" period that may or may not work...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What made the future look bleak after 2019 was getting rid of Mookie.

 

The future looked great for Dodger fans when they got Mookie.

 

They don't even have a forum where posters fret about budgets and the back end of longterm contracts.

 

That kinda talk is banned on their most popular fan board: LiveforLA, LiveforTODAY.com

[jad]

Casas is a presence, even with umps on a mission to call strikes on him because he keeps yapping. Sale carved up probably the Sox' two best players so far this season -- Duran and Abreu -- three Ks each, like they were lefty-hitting minor leaguers. Maybe the line-up misses Yoshida more than fans would admit; at least he makes contact...

 

The Sox' batting order of whiffers is in dire need of a guy like Arraez, someone with a 7.5% K rate. I'm not saying Arraez specifically -- not advocating trading a Pablo Lopez or four prospects for him -- but how much better would Boston be if there was just one guy who could consistently TOUCH the ball with a baserunner on third and less than two outs?

 

How did Nellie Fox make the Hall of Fame? Here's one stat: 2.1% career K rate. He averaged 15 strikeouts per year in 19 seasons. The 2024 Red Sox average 10 Ks per GAME.

 

Fox was great! Especially that time he hit a home run, came back to the dugout, and everyone turned their backs on him. "Sons a bitches!" he grumbled, then the team went wild.

[dgalehouse]

In general, the Sox are beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams. They are stuck in the mediocre middle. I do see some potential for improvement, but it gets a little tiresome hearing how things look better next year. Especially when you hear that year after year.

[notin]

Casas is a presence, even with umps on a mission to call strikes on him because he keeps yapping. Sale carved up probably the Sox' two best players so far this season -- Duran and Abreu -- three Ks each, like they were lefty-hitting minor leaguers. Maybe the line-up misses Yoshida more than fans would admit; at least he makes contact...

 

The Sox' batting order of whiffers is in dire need of a guy like Arraez, someone with a 7.5% K rate. I'm not saying Arraez specifically -- not advocating trading a Pablo Lopez or four prospects for him -- but how much better would Boston be if there was just one guy who could consistently TOUCH the ball with a baserunner on third and less than two outs?

 

How did Nellie Fox make the Hall of Fame? Here's one stat: 2.1% career K rate. He averaged 15 strikeouts per year in 19 seasons. The 2024 Red Sox average 10 Ks per GAME.

 

Joe Sewell was another HOF player who had an elite ability to make contact. In 8,333 career PA, he struck out 114 times for a 1.3% K rate. Granted, his offensive numbers for the rest of his game were not as pedestrian as former MVP Fox...