A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Dipre]

I’ve always thought the worst way to evaluate a pitcher was by how funny his name was, which is probably why I never appreciated Doug Fister…

 

I loved it when he Fistered the Yankees though. Didn't happen often, but it was always funny.

[Randy Red Sox]

So vague, no real answer.

 

So any guy that gets traded must of have something wrong with them?

 

In that case, I suppose we shouldn't trade for anyone.

 

i didn't say that. What i said is we should trade for a young COST CONTROLLED SP -not a rental. this team needs to continue with the long term plan.

[moonslav59]

This is the kind of tough talk John Henry really needs to hear.

 

I've been a big supporter of JH for years, and I still think he was the best thing that happened to the Sox in my 50+ years being a fan. I've been saying he spends in cycles, and kept thinking "this will be the uptick year" for a few years, now, and it hasn't happened. I expected he was waiting for the right moment to go large and long, again. I thought after 2021 was a good time, but nope. I thought the foundation was pretty good after 2022 and 2023, too, but nope.

 

Now, I think he's looking at the farm hands that are near ML ready and a solid, balanced everyday group of players plus a bit of a surprise pitching staff defying all odds, and he must be thinking the time is "NOW," or at least will be, this winter, but the cynical side of me beats down the hope and makes me reach the conclusion that "I'll believe it when I see it."

 

The whole "full throttle" thing, although not said by JH, took all bets off the table. The FO has been a sham for 2-3 years- trying to convince the fans that they were trying to keep us competitive through the rebuilding of the foundation. IMO, they were just trying to keep us out of last place, and they failed at even that.

 

I'm still extremely optimistic about the future of this team. The 26 man roster looks very nicely set up for the next 3-6 years. We have a ton of pre-arb and early arb players on the 26. We have some high potential prospects not yet on the 40. We have upcoming budget space to make some big impact additions to areas of need, which will include replacing Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and a RHB (O'Neill and Ref after 2025,) but the big question is, will JH okay increasing the payroll budget?

 

At this point, even spending up to the first line is in question, which to me is sickening, when you see how filthy rich JH is. We should be spending to the second line, at least, for a year- whether it be 2025 or 2026. (My guess is 2026 would be the best timing, in terms of guessing when we should see peak roster projected production, but I'm just taking a stab in the dark.)

 

I hope we do something significant at the deadline. It doesn't have to be earth-shattering, or even involve a top 6 prospect, but we can add 2-3 solid players with blocked prospects ranked #7 or lower. If an opportunity arises where we can add a SP'er with 2.3+ years of control, to help us now and in the next 2+ seasons, I'd love to see it happen, even if it involves losing a top 3 or 2 prospects from #4-9 to get. I doubt it happens, but we have the farm to make offers that can equal or better almost anyone else, unless the team wants a top young pitching prospects, which, sadly, we can not produce.

 

I mentioned 2026 as perhaps "the year," but I hate to think we go through another winter like this last one, thinking "wait till next year" for the 5 straight winters.

 

[Hugh2]

i didn't say that. What i said is we should trade for a young COST CONTROLLED SP -not a rental. this team needs to continue with the long term plan.

 

Yes, buying a rental doesn't diverge from the "long term plan" which I didn't know trading away all your prospects was part of that plan. A rental shoulnd't cost you those top guys,

 

Think of it this way, Whatever Flaherty would cost, he'd cost 3X the amount if he had mutliple years of team control.

 

I'm all for a rental. Good teams rent.

[moonslav59]

Yes, buying a rental doesn't diverge from the "long term plan" which I didn't know trading away all your prospects was part of that plan. A rental shoulnd't cost you those top guys,

 

Think of it this way, Whatever Flaherty would cost, he'd cost 3X the amount if he had mutliple years of team control.

 

I'm all for a rental. Good teams rent.

 

Agreed. We should and will not trade a top 6 prospect for a rental, and all the prospects below 6, except maybe pitchers, would not be taking a dent out of the longer term future. Sure, we could trade a mid level prospect and watch them do great, but we have a solid 11-12 everyday players returning for 2025 and 4-6 top prospects who should be ML ready by 2025, so we already look to have bottlenecks at certain positions.

 

Our OF is loaded and LHB centric:

2025 control or longer...

L Duran

L Abreu

R Rafaela (SS/2B)

R Refsnyder (2025 only)

L Anthony

R Campbell

R Lugo

R Yorke (2B) and maybe Valdez to LF

2026 or later: Bleis, Jh Garcia, Castro, Coffey, Taylor, Yuten, Asencio

 

SS/2B lacks in top quality, but excels in quantity of players/prospects with some promise:

Story

Rafaela (CF)

Mayer

Campblell (LF)

DHam

Grissom

Yorke

Valdez (LF?)

Romy (1B/OF)

Meidroth, Paulino, Westbrook, Sogard, Alvarez, McDonough

2026 or beyond: Cespedes, Zanetello, Arias, Romero, Anderson, Alcantara, Nunez, Ravelo

 

C/DH (C: Wong, McGuire '25 only & Teel)

Jo Garcia, Hickey, Brannon, Gasper (1B)

DH: Valdez, Lugo, Kavadas (1B,) Yorke, Jordan, Encarnacion & J Gonzalez (1B)

 

The only 2 positions we do not have extensive depth happen to be the two positions with top 3 quality players:

3B: Devers

1B: Casas

 

Our pitching depth is thin in the minors, but we have thought that for over 6 years, and we currently have a very nice staff of many homegrown pitchers + pitchers acquired as prospects or recent grads.

 

While it would be great to have a 5 deep OF core on the 26 (Duran, Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu & Campbell,) when you have high need areas, like pitching, it makes sense to trade one.

 

Our middle IF is not top heavy, like the OF is, but we can afford to trade depth for a rental.

 

Edited July 19, 2024 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

W-L is the worst way to evaluate a pitcher's ability.

 

Maybe wins are the new undervalued assets by the current day GM's!

[mvp 78]

Yes, buying a rental doesn't diverge from the "long term plan" which I didn't know trading away all your prospects was part of that plan. A rental shoulnd't cost you those top guys,

 

Think of it this way, Whatever Flaherty would cost, he'd cost 3X the amount if he had mutliple years of team control.

 

I'm all for a rental. Good teams rent.

 

I'd assume you could get Flaherty for a package that didn't include top 10 prospects. Seems fine?

[Hugh2]

I'd assume you could get Flaherty for a package that didn't include top 10 prospects. Seems fine?

 

I would be semi surprised if we got him without parting with a top 10 prospect, certainly not the top 3 though. That would shock and maybe even upset me.

[mvp 78]

I would be semi surprised if we got him without parting with a top 10 prospect, certainly not the top 3 though. That would shock and maybe even upset me.

 

He's a one year rental. No way does he get someone higher than Fitts IMO.

[Hugh2]

He's a one year rental. No way does he get someone higher than Fitts IMO.

 

I'm going to look for some examples, but I'm certain top 100 prospects have been traded for rentals before. And depending on who's list you're using you're getting 1-4 guys who are above Fitts and not even top 100, and you got two guys top 10 behind Fitts.

 

 

EDIT: wait, I think I pretty much agree with your post. But, to be fair Sandlin is ranked below Fitts

[moonslav59]

I’m sure some top prospects have been traded for 2 month rentals before but for guys like Flaherty, we could probably get him for Monegro or Paulino and Wikelman.

[Bellhorn04]

It's a sad day at Talksox when we can't find a good historical comp for a Flaherty trade.

 

One could look at the Montgomery trade last year, though the waters are muddied a bit by the Rangers also getting Stratton.

[dgalehouse]

A lot of contenders need more pitching. You could try to get a guy like Flaherty for a lower-level prospect, but someone will probably top that offer. I guess there is no harm trying.

[notin]

It's a sad day at Talksox when we can't find a good historical comp for a Flaherty trade.

 

One could look at the Montgomery trade last year, though the waters are muddied a bit by the Rangers also getting Stratton.

 

The Cardinals got a pitcher and an infielder who both debuted on the BA Top 100 list this past off-season. And they got John King…

[moonslav59]

2023 Deadline trades:

 

Flaherty for Prieto, Showalter & Rom

Verlander for Clifford & Gilbert

 

2022:

Luis Castillo for EArroyo, Moore, Marte & Stoudt

 

The Sox traded Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber (tough comp, since he was not a pitcher and was injured.)

 

 

[notin]

Mike Baumann DFAd again?

 

His ERA with Seattle was ugly (5.51), but he also allowed 0 runs in 14 of his 18 appearances. And 1 run in a 15th…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's a sad day at Talksox when we can't find a good historical comp for a Flaherty trade.

 

 

I got a guy. He had a career WAR of 13.9, but was at about 10 when Boston traded for him. Flaherty's career WAR is currently 12.5.

 

The comp's WAR only peaked at seasons of 2.4 and 2.3, which is what Flaherty already has in Detroit this year. Flaherty also had one WAR of 5.8 in the season he finished fourth in Cy Young voting and received NL MVP votes.

 

Last clue, the pitcher the Sox actually traded for was a 37-year-old reliever, and not a 28-year old starter. Like Flaherty, though, he was also an impending free agent, but signed elsewhere after only pitching about a month in Boston. And for that, they only traded Jeff Bagwell...

[vegasbob]

I got a guy. He had a career WAR of 13.9, but was at about 10 when Boston traded for him. Flaherty's career WAR is currently 12.5.

 

The comp's WAR only peaked at seasons of 2.4 and 2.3, which is what Flaherty already has in Detroit this year. Flaherty also had one WAR of 5.8 in the season he finished fourth in Cy Young voting and received NL MVP votes.

 

Last clue, the pitcher the Sox actually traded for was a 37-year-old reliever, and not a 28-year old starter. Like Flaherty, though, he was also an impending free agent, but signed elsewhere after only pitching about a month in Boston. And for that, they only traded Jeff Bagwell...

 

Larry Andersen, a brilliant move, by a team not making the WS for another 14 years after the deal

[moonslav59]

Larry Andersen, a brilliant move, by a team not making the WS for another 14 years after the deal

 

Still not over it?

[moonslav59]

66 Games to go and here are the bWAR/fWAR averages:

 

AVG Player (bWAR, fWAR) with about 40% of the season to go, projects to about...

4.6 Duran (5.2, 3.9) 6.5 projected

3.4 Devers (3.2, 3.5) 4.8

1.8 Abreu (1.9, 1.6) 2.5

1.7 O'Neill (1.7, 1.7) 2.4

1.5 Wong (1.8, 1.2) 2.1

1.5 DHam (1.6, 1.3) 2.1

1.1 Rafaela (1.6, 0.5) 1.5

0.8 Resnyder (0.7, 0.8) 1.2

0.4 Casas (0.2, 0.5) 0.5 (if he hardly plays)

0.3 Romy (0.5, 0.1) 0.4

0.2 McGuire (0.1, 0.3) 0.3

0.0 Yoshida (0.1, -0.2) 0.0

-0.1 SMith (-0.2, 0.0) -0.1

-0.3 Valdez (-0.4, -0.2) -0.4

-0.7 Grissom (-0.5, -0.9) -1.1

 

Pitching

3.2 Houck (2.9, 3.4) 4.4 projected

2.5 Crawford (2.6, 2.3) 3.5

1.5 Pivetta (1.5, 1.5) 2.1

1.4 Jansen (1.5, 1.3) 2.0

0.9 Bern (1.1, 0.6) 1.3

0.9 Slaten (0.5, 1.3) 1.3

0.8 Kelly (1.2, 0.3) 1.4

0.6 Whit (0.9, 0.3) 0.6 (out for season)

0.6 Booser (0.7, 0.5) 0.8

0.4 Criswell (0.0, 0.8) 0.6

0.4 Wink (0.4, 0.3) 0.6

0.2 Bello (-0.4, 0.7) 0.2

0.2 Martin (0.2, 0.1) 0.2

0.0 Ander. (0.2, -0.3) -0.1

-0.2 Weiss. (-0.4, 0.1) -0.2

 

[moonslav59]

Team fWAR (Pitching, Everyday Players)

 

35.6 PHI (16.6, 19.0) Clearly the best

30.7 BAL (11.2, 19.5) Tough team to beat

29.4 LAD (9.4, 20.0) Barely better than MIN? Wow!

29.0 MIN (10.7, 18.3) Surprises me they are 4th best

28.3 NYY (7.8, 20.5) Will their decline continue?

25.0 BOS (13.1, 11.9) 6th best in MLB and rising

24.9 MIL (6.3, 18.6) Thought pitching was better, despite losing Burnes

22.9 KCR (11.2, 11.7) Still surprising.

22.7 ATL (12.6, 10.1) Overrated?

22.3 CLE (7.9, 14.6) Tito= Manager of the Year

21.5 HOU (6.6, 14.9) This team has the best chance to pass us.

20.3 SEA (11.6, 8.7) May lose the division to HOU (or TEX)

20.3 DET (10.4, 9.9) House of cards is crumbling down.

 

3 ALE teams in the top 6!

[Bellhorn04]

22.3 CLE (7.9, 14.6) Tito= Manager of the Year

 

Would that be Tito Vogt?

[moonslav59]

C

3.6 NYY

3.1 LAD

15. BOS 1.8

1B

4.8 PHI

3.3 LAD

3.2 AZ

17. BOS 0.4 (Better than I thought)

2B

3.7 AZ

3.0 TOR & MIL

30. BOS -1.4 (Been the thorn in our side since Pedey)

SS

6.3 BAL

6.0 KCR

4.9 MIN

4.7 CIN, LAD, PHI

19. BOS 1.3

3B

3.8 CLE

3.2 MIN

3.1 TEX

8. BOS 2.4

LF

4.4 CLE

3.2 BOS

2.7 MIL

CF

5.6 NYY

3.2 COL

2.5 MIN

7. BOS 1.8

RF

6.3 NYY

3.8 HOU

3.5 BAL

2.8 BOS

DH

5.2 LAD (Will a DH only win the MVP?)

3.2 ATL

2.6 AZ

23. BOS -0.4 (Sad, sad, SAD!)

 

OF as a whole:

12.7 NYY

7.8 BOS Not long ago, this was a weak link for the Sox.

6.8 MIL, SDP

 

 

[Nick]

Team fWAR (Pitching, Everyday Players)

 

35.6 PHI (16.6, 19.0) Clearly the best

30.7 BAL (11.2, 19.5) Tough team to beat

29.4 LAD (9.4, 20.0) Barely better than MIN? Wow!

29.0 MIN (10.7, 18.3) Surprises me they are 4th best

28.3 NYY (7.8, 20.5) Will their decline continue?

25.0 BOS (13.1, 11.9) 6th best in MLB and rising

24.9 MIL (6.3, 18.6) Thought pitching was better, despite losing Burnes

22.9 KCR (11.2, 11.7) Still surprising.

22.7 ATL (12.6, 10.1) Overrated?

22.3 CLE (7.9, 14.6) Tito= Manager of the Year

21.5 HOU (6.6, 14.9) This team has the best chance to pass us.

20.3 SEA (11.6, 8.7) May lose the division to HOU (or TEX)

20.3 DET (10.4, 9.9) House of cards is crumbling down.

 

3 ALE teams in the top 6!

 

So is our pitching #2?

[moonslav59]

So is our pitching #2?

 

YES! Perhaps the shocker in all of MLB, when it comes to team WAR.

 

Maybe, almost as surprising:

 

SP

11.7 PHI (2nd in IP by SP'ers)

10.1 KCR (3rd in SP IP)

9.8 SEA (1st in SP IP)

9.8 ATL (6th)

9.5 DET (16th)

9.1 BOS (6th) 21st in IP, when IP is a big part of fWAR

 

RP

5.0 CLE (9th in RP IP)

4.8 PHI (27th in RP IP)

4.1 CIN (16th in IP)

4.0 BOS 4th (10th in RP IP, and IP is a big driver of fWAR)

3.7 MIA (3rd)

3.1 MIN (26th)

 

Edited July 20, 2024 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

Team fWAR (Pitching, Everyday Players)

 

35.6 PHI (16.6, 19.0) Clearly the best

30.7 BAL (11.2, 19.5) Tough team to beat

29.4 LAD (9.4, 20.0) Barely better than MIN? Wow!

29.0 MIN (10.7, 18.3) Surprises me they are 4th best

28.3 NYY (7.8, 20.5) Will their decline continue?

25.0 BOS (13.1, 11.9) 6th best in MLB and rising

24.9 MIL (6.3, 18.6) Thought pitching was better, despite losing Burnes

22.9 KCR (11.2, 11.7) Still surprising.

22.7 ATL (12.6, 10.1) Overrated?

22.3 CLE (7.9, 14.6) Tito= Manager of the Year

21.5 HOU (6.6, 14.9) This team has the best chance to pass us.

20.3 SEA (11.6, 8.7) May lose the division to HOU (or TEX)

20.3 DET (10.4, 9.9) House of cards is crumbling down.

 

3 ALE teams in the top 6!

 

Do you actually not know that Terry Francona is retired, at least for now?

[gojohn99]

Still not over it?

 

Ahh the Lou Gorman years!

[moonslav59]

I've talked about the depth and quality of our everyday players on the 40 and near ML ready non 40 prospects, and now I will talk about our pitching situation, going forward.

 

While our staff is now 2nd in fWAR in all or MLB, I sill think it looks weaker, looking at 2025 and beyond than the other side of the plate.

 

Of course, I believe our fielding is the weakest link of all, but pitching and batting matter most of all. (Baserunning is probably 4th.)

 

As most of us know, we have some key pitchers reaching free agency, this winter, and perhaps others may never match this year's numbers again, but I won't speak to career highs or outliers, now.

 

FAs to be by current IP:

81 Pivetta 3.87 (110 ERA+ and 3.66 FIP)

49 Anderson 4.59 (4 really bad games out of 23)

33 Jansen 2.16 (25 svs)

26 Martin 3.42 (on IL)

 

It's hard to project what Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks and even I Campbell & Murphy might give us in 2025, and maybe it might be enough to replace what we are losing, but the closer slot is very worrisome for 2025. Perhaps Fitts can help from the farm, but he's about all we have, there, for 2025.

 

Returning staff:

117 Houck 2.54 (hard to know what he will do in 2025, but looking good)

113 Crawford 3.04 (looking good, too)

90 Bello 5.32 (We need him to look more like 2023)

58 Criswell 4.50 (Maybe our Long man in '25?)

43 Slaten 3.38 (Could be key for 2025 success)

42 Weissert 4.32 (Hard to project)

41 Wink 3.27 (Tough to project)

37 Kelly 1.96 (Looking good, this year)

32 Bernardino 2.53 (a couple bad games should not shadow over a good '24)

31 Booser 2.90 (perhaps a fluke)

18 Whitlock 1.96 (looked great in 4 GS)

7 I Campbell 16.20 (was supposed to be pretty good)

0 Giolito, Hendriks & Murphy

 

For 2025, I hope to see this:

 

SP1 Houck

SP2 __FA__ (or trade)

SP3 Crawford

SP4 Giolito

SP5 Bello

LR/SP Criswell (Fitts)

 

Closer __FA__ (or trade)

RP2 Whitlock

RP3 Hendriks

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Kelly

RP6 Winckowski

RP7 Bernardino (or RP7 Criswell: see SP6)

Weissert, I Campbell, Fulmer, Booser, Dobbins

Horn, Murphy, Mata, Walter, Guerrero

 

Needing just 2 pitchers does not sound like much, but the 2 needed are big needs: #2 SP and a Closer.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Do you actually not know that Terry Francona is retired, at least for now?

 

Slipped my mind.

 

Major Ooops!

[Nick]

At what point do the big 3 make their major league appearance?

 

How much better is Roman Anthony than say Abreu?

How soon can we expect to see Teel? Do we stick with Reese McGuire for another year? His third and final year of arbitration?

How realistic is it for Mayer to replace healthy Story with decent hitting? Do we move Story to second base to accommodate Mayer? When does the switch occur?

Will Kristian Campbell placed in the same time table as the big 3? He is already 22 and plays in Portland. Is it possible for him to shift to CF and have Rafaela play short and Story second if Mayer does not pan out?

 

We're very fortunate to have Rafaela because his ability to play short and center gives us tons of flexibility.

 

At this point, the Sox may feel they need to extend/sign Pivetta and hope for the best from Giolito in 2025 and call it the day.

 

We can't make any bold moves without giving up top talent in my opinion. You can't have it all.

 

I know what DD would do. He would get rid of at least one of the top 4 to acquire a top talent, even if it's a rental.