A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Duran Is The Man]

After watching video of Roman Candle Anthony going off with the longball to win the Futures Skill Comp, I can't digest any scenario where trading him is a good idea.

 

I grew up rooting for and being entertained by 30-homer hitting Red Sox outfielders, and an All-Star catcher, so I confess I'd really like Boston to hang onto Anthony and Kyle Teel.

 

If Breslow has to swap a top prospect -- a guy whose return can make the team appreciably better now and in the future -- than I would deal Mayer. Plenty of World Champs have won with glove-first shortstops, and there are always plenty of those guys available. Reports speculating Mayer is a candidate to move to third base or another position aren't reassuring.

 

A trade for Crochet doesn't guarantee anybody a playoff spot this year, anyway... as his innings pitched totals approach career highs, just like Houck and Crawford. And I'm sure some posters have seen Fangraphs ratings of hardest second-half schedules. Ya, we're #1, baby...

 

Same here.

[notin]

After watching video of Roman Candle Anthony going off with the longball to win the Futures Skill Comp, I can't digest any scenario where trading him is a good idea.

 

I grew up rooting for and being entertained by 30-homer hitting Red Sox outfielders, and an All-Star catcher, so I confess I'd really like Boston to hang onto Anthony and Kyle Teel.

 

If Breslow has to swap a top prospect -- a guy whose return can make the team appreciably better now and in the future -- than I would deal Mayer. Plenty of World Champs have won with glove-first shortstops, and there are always plenty of those guys available. Reports speculating Mayer is a candidate to move to third base or another position aren't reassuring.

 

A trade for Crochet doesn't guarantee anybody a playoff spot this year, anyway... as his innings pitched totals approach career highs, just like Houck and Crawford. And I'm sure some posters have seen Fangraphs ratings of hardest second-half schedules. Ya, we're #1, baby...

 

I can see keeping Anthony. I just don’t see trading for Crochet without including him.

 

And there are pros and cons. Crochet is absolutely among the best starters in all of MLB this year and pitching is important. And let’s face it, the Sox trotted Ted Williams, Yastrzemski and Jim Rice - Hall of Famers all of them - out into left field from 1939 to 1989 and didn’t win a single title. So is OF a top priority over pitching?

[moonslav59]

Lugo could move as well.

 

I like Yorke because he has the first round pedigree and he’s crushing in AAA in a limited sample. He might be too much for the Anderson/Kikuchi/Eflin crowd I’ve been plugging, but I expect Breslow to acquire a more appropriate target(s)…

 

Could we get one of your trio of pitchers for Lugo + Valdez/Paulino/Castro/Meidroth/Jordan?

 

Maybe Yorke, Lugo and Meidroth could get us Flaherty or Fedde?

[moonslav59]

I can see keeping Anthony. I just don’t see trading for Crochet without including him.

 

And there are pros and cons. Crochet is absolutely among the best starters in all of MLB this year and pitching is important. And let’s face it, the Sox trotted Ted Williams, Yastrzemski and Jim Rice - Hall of Famers all of them - out into left field from 1939 to 1989 and didn’t win a single title. So is OF a top priority over pitching?

 

I'm not sure the deadline is the time to make big deals like this, but if the CWS are looking to trade Crochet, now, then we should make a strong offer. I doubt we do, but we have to face the music, someday, IMO.

 

Our top 6 prospects are all non pitchers, and our 9 batting slots look pretty solid for 2025. Not that some cannot be improved upon, especially a big RHB and a more dependable middle IF'er, but this is not too shabby:

 

C: Wong, McGuire (Teel, if not traded)

1B: Casas

2B: Story, DHam/Grissom/Romy/Yorke/Vadlez...

SS: Mayer, if not traded, Story/DHam/Romy

3B: Devers

LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Yoshida)

CF: Rafaela (Duran) Anthony, if not traded

RF: Abreu (Refsnyder) Anthony, if not traded

DH: Yoshida, Refsnyder, Valdez (Lugo)

 

Top 6 prospects:

Anthony (We look pretty set in the OF, especially with LHBs)

Mayer (We need help in middle IF more than OF and C, although Mayer is another LHB.)

Teel (Teams always need catchers, and Teel might be able to DH or play 1B. Yet another LHB.)

Campbell (Finally, a RHB, but not a plus defender at 2B/SS. If he ends up in the OF, we may have to trade Abreu or Refsnyder. Anthony is also in the OF mix.)

Cespedes (RHB and position?) and Bleis (RHB and CF)- My position on these two is that we'd be selling low on them. Teams no longer value faraway prospects as highly as they once did. I tend to view them as the guys who will add minor league depth after we trade Anthony, Mayer or Campbell.

 

Any prospect below #6 is open season, but trading pitching prospects have to be in a package that brings back a better pitcher.

[mvp 78]

Any prospect below #6 is open season, but trading pitching prospects have to be in a package that brings back a better pitcher.

 

If Perales didn't get injured, he'd help a lot in a Crochet deal. I'm if any of the other Sox arms move the needle.

[mvp 78]

Portland has The Worst defense in the league. Being s***** on defense is just part of the Red Sox DNA.

 

And it's worse in Greenville. Zanetello has been stinking up the joint in Salem too.

[notin]

Could we get one of your trio of pitchers for Lugo + Valdez/Paulino/Castro/Meidroth/Jordan?

 

Maybe Yorke, Lugo and Meidroth could get us Flaherty or Fedde?

 

That’s not a question I can answer. Without checking, they’re probably fair on BTV. But that also depends on who the other teams like as prospects and a desire to take quality over quantity…

[moonslav59]

If Perales didn't get injured, he'd help a lot in a Crochet deal. I'm if any of the other Sox arms move the needle.

 

For Crochet, maybe they take Anthony + [Fitts/Sandlin] + [Yorke/Lugo/Meidroth] +[Castro/Paulino/E R-C]

[moonslav59]

That’s not a question I can answer. Without checking, they’re probably fair on BTV. But that also depends on who the other teams like as prospects and a desire to take quality over quantity…

 

I think it is of approx value to get him, but yes, it depends on what the other GM wants.

[moonslav59]

Looking at the Sox pitching staffs since 2003, there are some eye-opening numbers, here...

 

With 66 games still to play, the staff already has a higher fWAR (13.0) than 5 Sox teams (2012, 14, 15, 20 and 22.)

 

3.61 ERA is the best in 22 seasons (so far.)

3.73 2017

3.75 2018

3.79 2013

3.87 2007

(2004 was 4.19)

 

3.77 xFIP is #1

3.87 2014

3.89 2013

3.91 2017

3.92 2018

(2004 was 4.21)

 

ERA-

82 2017

83 2007

84 2018

85 2024

89 2004 & 2008

90 2013

 

SIERA

3.79 the 2024 Sox are tops

 

WHIP

1.19 the 2024 Sox (1.25 is 2nd '18 & '17)

 

K/BB

3.4 2017

3.3 2024 3rd in K-BB%

3.0 2018

 

The 2024 Sox have the second lowest BAbip in 22 years, despite having awful defense behind them.

 

UnEarned Runs:

98 2004

78 2003

73 2021

66 2010 & 2022

62 2014

60 2019

59 2024 Lead MLB & projects to about the second worst in 22 years.

58 2023

57 2011

55 2015

54 2016

53 2017

52 2005 & 2006

49 2012

43 2013

41 2009

39 2018 & 2008

(26 in 2020: prorated to about 65)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can see keeping Anthony. I just don’t see trading for Crochet without including him.

 

And there are pros and cons. Crochet is absolutely among the best starters in all of MLB this year and pitching is important. And let’s face it, the Sox trotted Ted Williams, Yastrzemski and Jim Rice - Hall of Famers all of them - out into left field from 1939 to 1989 and didn’t win a single title. So is OF a top priority over pitching?

 

Of course not. But identifying a star outfielder is easier these days than rolling the dice on starting pitchers -- because virtually all the best and most established are major injury risks and could blow out their elbows (even reconstructed ones) at any time.

 

I can see signing free agent pitchers for big money, because it's very hard to stay competitive if you don't... (and we shall soon see if Bailey's boys hang in there all season long). I just wouldn't trade away core position players with All-Star profiles for them, since regulars are much more reliable to post up every night.

[moonslav59]

Of course not. But identifying a star outfielder is easier these days than rolling the dice on starting pitchers -- because virtually all the best and most established are major injury risks and could blow out their elbows (even reconstructed ones) at any time.

 

I can see signing free agent pitchers for big money, because it's very hard to stay competitive if you don't... (and we shall soon see if Bailey's boys hang in there all season long). I just wouldn't trade away core position players with All-Star profiles for them, since regulars are much more reliable to post up every night.

 

You make great points, but it is very hard to win without near top pitching. Our staff is doing very well, this year, and it's no coincidence we are in the race, as a result, but we have too many SP'ers nearing or already over their career high in IP, and we have 66 games to go before even thinking about them giving us quality playoff innings.

 

We lose Pivetta, this winter, and although he has been a 4/5 SP'er with us since late 2020, he's been our best innings eater, by far.

We also lose our best closer since Uehara.

One can say we got lucky with the homegrown pitchers we have, now, and I don't see the next Houck or Crawford joining the staff in 2025, so where do we get a couple pitchers to keep us in the top 10 in MLB, minimum?

 

I agree, pitchers are major risks, but we will be having duplicate values at several everyday positions from 2025 to beyond 2026. We can't play everybody, even if 2 are hurt all year.

 

Wong & McGuire ('25) then Teel ('26)

Casas

Story, Mayer, Campbell plus DHam/Yorke/Cespedes

Devers

Duran

Rafaela, Anthony

Abreu, Refsnyder (to 2025) then Bleis (2026 and beyond)

Yoshida, Valdez/Lugo

 

Even if we dump Yoshida, Valdez and lose Ref, I'm looking at 13-14 players for 9 slots and a couple key sub roles. We can trade 1-3 good players for pitching.

 

If Campbell plays OF, we'll have 5 OF'ers for 2026, not counting Bleis (Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell.)

 

If Campbell plays 2B, we'll have 3 middle IF'er (Story, Mayer, Campbell) and 3+ offering decent depth, not counting Cespedes & Zanetello (DHam, Yorke, Romy, plus Meidroth.)

 

If we lose Yoshida, we might have Valdez, Lugo, Jo Garcia, Jordan, Yorke, Meidroth. Maybe Campbell ends up at DH.

Edited July 19, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

2024 IP and Career Highs

 

117 Houck (106 in '23 and 119 in A+ 2018)

113 Crawford (129 in '23 and 144 in A-/A+ in 2018)

90 B Bello (157 in '23 and 118 in A 2019)

58 Criswell (33 as RP in '23 and 117 in A+/AA in 2019 & 2021)

73 Wink in AAA+MLB (112 in AA/AAA 2021 and 127 in 2019 A)

(Pivetta is on pace for a lower IP total than 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 & 2023)

 

We have 67 games left, which is about 13 starts per SP, and at 5 IP/GS, that adds 65 IP to their totals. That might project to...

185 Houck (55 more than his career high in professional baseball)

180 Crawford (50 more)

155 Bello (equals his high)

125 Criswell (Barely passes his high)

 

Then, if we make the playoffs, maybe 5-20+ more IP per SP'er.

 

It would be nice to add another solid innings eater and go to a 6 man rotation to finish 2024.

[moonslav59]

The Sox open the 2025 season in Texas (4 games), starting March 27th and then head to BAL for 3 games (day off after game 1.)

 

They come home to play STL for 3, then TOR.

 

The Sox end the season with these 18 games:

 

3 @ OAK (after 3 @AZ)

3 v NYY

Day Off

3 v OAK

3 @ TBR

Day Off

3 @ TOR

3 v DET

 

 

Edited July 19, 2024 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

Could we get one of your trio of pitchers for Lugo + Valdez/Paulino/Castro/Meidroth/Jordan?

 

Maybe Yorke, Lugo and Meidroth could get us Flaherty or Fedde?

 

Flaherty stinks

[Bellhorn04]

Flaherty stinks

 

?????

 

3.13 ERA

3.17 FIP

.98 WHIP

7.44 K/BB

 

Doesn't seem malodorous to me.

[notin]

?????

 

3.13 ERA

3.17 FIP

.98 WHIP

7.44 K/BB

 

Doesn't seem malodorous to me.

 

 

Perhaps Randy was referring to a hygiene issue?

[Randy Red Sox]

?????

 

3.13 ERA

3.17 FIP

.98 WHIP

7.44 K/BB

 

Doesn't seem malodorous to me.

 

ask the team that acquired him last year what they thought of him. I was probably too harsh saying he stinks but he is pretty much a .500 pitcher in my books. There is a reason he has bounced around the past few years. Sox need to target a young cost controlled SP who fits in the age group the team is building around not an average rental SP

[notin]

ask the team that acquired him last year what they thought of him. I was probably too harsh saying he stinks but he is pretty much a .500 pitcher in my books. There is a reason he has bounced around the past few years. Sox need to target a young cost controlled SP who fits in the age group the team is building around not an average rental SP

 

They need IP for this year, and need it badly. The Sox don’t really even have a full five man rotation. Acquiring multiple starters probably wouldn’t be a bad idea.

 

A cost-controlled starter would be nice, but any starter would be an improvement…

[Dipre]

W-L is the worst way to evaluate a pitcher's ability.

[notin]

ask the team that acquired him last year what they thought of him. I was probably too harsh saying he stinks but he is pretty much a .500 pitcher in my books. There is a reason he has bounced around the past few years. Sox need to target a young cost controlled SP who fits in the age group the team is building around not an average rental SP

 

And how does Flaherty NOT fit into the Sox age group? He’s 6 months older than Kutter Crawford and 8 months older than Tanner Houck…

[Bellhorn04]

W-L is the worst way to evaluate a pitcher's ability.

 

Any evidence of that in the Red Sox starter numbers?

 

Houck 8-6 W-L 2.54 ERA

Crawford 6-7 3.04

Bello 10-5 5.32

 

Yeah, just maybe!

[Hugh2]

ask the team that acquired him last year what they thought of him. I was probably too harsh saying he stinks but he is pretty much a .500 pitcher in my books. There is a reason he has bounced around the past few years. Sox need to target a young cost controlled SP who fits in the age group the team is building around not an average rental SP

 

So vague, no real answer.

 

So any guy that gets traded must of have something wrong with them?

 

In that case, I suppose we shouldn't trade for anyone.

[Hugh2]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/top-50-trade-candidates-mlb-trade-deadline-2024.html

 

Flaherty is ranked the #1 rental arm on the market.

 

Obviously this is a subjective topic, but there really aren't many better options out there......imagine being unhappy with the Sox going out and buying the top rental????

[Hugh2]

Someone like Flaherty might be a good FA candidate this winter as well, not only can you rent him for a playoff run but you can get a good look at him, build raport and see if he's someone you want to sign long term.

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/top-50-trade-candidates-mlb-trade-deadline-2024.html

 

Flaherty is ranked the #1 rental arm on the market.

 

Obviously this is a subjective topic, but there really aren't many better options out there......imagine being unhappy with the Sox going out and buying the top rental????

 

No worries, a bunch of us will be pissed when he gets traded elsewhere.

[notin]

W-L is the worst way to evaluate a pitcher's ability.

 

I’ve always thought the worst way to evaluate a pitcher was by how funny his name was, which is probably why I never appreciated Doug Fister…

[moonslav59]

They need IP for this year, and need it badly. The Sox don’t really even have a full five man rotation. Acquiring multiple starters probably wouldn’t be a bad idea.

 

A cost-controlled starter would be nice, but any starter would be an improvement…

 

Right. We basically have 4 SP'ers and Criswell.

 

I hate to keep repeating this, but we will need to manage innings on Houck and Crawford, which means less IP/GS or going to a 6 man rotation, which I like.

 

To be a top contender, I think we need:

 

1. A solid #2/3 type SP

2. An innings eater #4/5 type and make Criswell the long man/7th starter on a 6 man rotation.

3. A RHB (SS, 2B, 1B or by swapping Abreu + prospects for a better RF'er who bats RH'd)

 

Do I think we add 2 SP'ers? No.

 

If we add just one, it better be a damn good one who also gives innings, then add a pen arm, as we will need it.

[notin]

Someone like Flaherty might be a good FA candidate this winter as well, not only can you rent him for a playoff run but you can get a good look at him, build raport and see if he's someone you want to sign long term.

 

Flaherty was a high school teammate of Lucas Giolito. Also of Max Fried.

 

It’s actually a bit scary to think Westlake High School in LA had a better rotation than many MLB teams…

[Bellhorn04]

If we add just one, it better be a damn good one who also gives innings, then add a pen arm, as we will need it.

 

This is the kind of tough talk John Henry really needs to hear.