A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Old Red]

I think there's a strong chance he gets shut down until 2025.

 

Physically, or mental swings?

[vegasbob]

If he's not ready until September, it might depend on how we look, then.

 

Agree with you and MVP's assessment on casas which I have been thinking for awhile. There needs to be a real point to bringing him back, not just to prove he's back. I think Triston will need a bunch of time to assure himself that he won't reinjure it and it could mess up his natural swing. Would not be the worst thing to give him the off season to fully heal.

 

Dom Smith and/or a RH 1Bman aren't the future or even 2025, but Smith is playable for the present.

[Duran Is The Man]

MLBTR reported...

 

“It will be a while” before Triston Casas is ready for a minor league rehab assignment, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and other reporters on Friday. Casas hasn’t played since April 20 due to a rib fracture and torn rib cartilage, and he is already well beyond even the broad 3-to-9 week timeframe Casas initially floated three months ago, though the first baseman noted that the nature of the injury led to a lot of fluidity.

 

In yesterday’s update, Cora said Casas was taking soft toss swings and is hitting off a tee, but is still dealing with some nagging discomfort in his side. Until that discomfort entirely subsides, Casas and the Sox can’t really move forward with any kind of concrete plan for even a steadier ramp-up, let alone any minor league rehab work. Cora did say that Casas would play again in 2024, but “we don’t know yet” when a return was feasible.

 

surely the Braves have another suspect infielder we can trade him for. and pay Casas' salary too just because.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly.

 

It’s 4 games. Why those 4 are more relevant sample size than the previous 95 is a mystery to me…

 

It's not just the 4 losses, it's that the pitching staff looks like it's falling apart, and that it was somewhat predictable that it would.

 

For me personally I know this has a lot to do with being bitter at Henry and Kennedy for the 5 years of fiscal restraint and the insulting way they deal with the fans.

 

I appreciate that the players are working their asses off and that some have greatly exceeded expectations. But when you're not getting much help from the guys who make the decisions, it's kind of a futile battle.

[moonslav59]

Agree with you and MVP's assessment on casas which I have been thinking for awhile. There needs to be a real point to bringing him back, not just to prove he's back. I think Triston will need a bunch of time to assure himself that he won't reinjure it and it could mess up his natural swing. Would not be the worst thing to give him the off season to fully heal.

 

Dom Smith and/or a RH 1Bman aren't the future or even 2025, but Smith is playable for the present.

 

If he never swings a bat until winter, how long does it take to regain what was lost?

[dgalehouse]

If the team stays in contention for a wild card, you would definitely want Casas back. If you are not in contention, then it doesn't much matter.

[moonslav59]

It's not just the 4 losses, it's that the pitching staff looks like it's falling apart, and that it was somewhat predictable that it would.

 

For me personally I know this has a lot to do with being bitter at Henry and Kennedy for the 5 years of fiscal restraint and for the insulting way they talk to the fans who pay for everything.

 

I appreciate that the players are working their asses off and that some have greatly exceeded expectations. But when you're not getting much help from the guys who make the decisions, it's kind of a futile battle.

 

Any 4 game losing streak shows some players looking real bad.

 

The weird thing is, we coulda won 3, and yet we look totally lost, right? Does that make sense?

[dgalehouse]

The reason for losing close games late is usually the bullpen. Cannot emphasize enough how important the pen is in baseball today. Fortifying the pen should be a priority ASAP.

[moonslav59]

The reason for losing close games late is usually the bullpen. Cannot emphasize enough how important the pen is in baseball today. Fortifying the pen should be a priority ASAP.

 

I do agree pens are very important, but with good games from Houck and Crawford, we probably win 1 or 2 more.

 

With better offense, we could have won 1-2 more of these last 4.

 

With a bad pen, instead of a horrible one, we might win 1 of the 4.

[Bellhorn04]

Any 4 game losing streak shows some players looking real bad.

 

The weird thing is, we coulda won 3, and yet we look totally lost, right? Does that make sense?

 

We don't look totally lost, we look like a team that's a hair better than a .500 team. And that's not really that much different than we've looked for most of the last 3 years. We had a nice little hot streak before the break and that raised our hopes, but then reality quickly set in again.

 

I predicted this team would win 80 at the start of the year, so it's not like I've done a major flip-flop.

 

I've become kind of a detached observer this year, I have to admit. Part of it is probably just from getting old and jaded as a fan after 55 years of it. Part of it is I'm disgusted with the way Henry has run things starting when he traded Betts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not panic, but do the Red Sox have anyone new to bring to mound in late innings tonight or tomorrow in Colorado?

 

If they keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, that's the definition of insanity... at least for fans driven crazy by a lack of front office support for their depleted heroes.

 

The Rockies may have a last place team, but all their regulars who made the majors can hit batting practice pitching.

[moonslav59]

We don't look totally lost, we look like a team that's a hair better than a .500 team. And that's not really that much different than we've looked for most of the last 3 years. We had a nice little hot streak before the break and that raised our hopes, but then reality quickly set in again.

 

I predicted this team would win 80 at the start of the year, so it's not like I've done a major flip-flop.

 

I've become kind of a detached observer this year, I have to admit. Part of it is probably just from getting old and jaded as a fan after 55 years of it. Part of it is I'm disgusted with the way Henry has run things starting when he traded Betts.

 

We were both pretty close on our projections, but a team with a top 6-8 pitching staff, a top 8-12 line-up and about the 25th best defense, should be better than a tad over .500.

 

True, the pitching no longer looks top 8 or even 10-14, and with Slaten & Martin out, we may not be top 20, so I get your point.

 

Things can change to the good, though.

 

Houck and Crawford could return to form. Pivetta could have one of his 10 good start streaks. Maybe Bello find his 2023 groove.

 

Without adding to the pen, I can't see us turning it around.

[notin]

The reason for losing close games late is usually the bullpen. Cannot emphasize enough how important the pen is in baseball today. Fortifying the pen should be a priority ASAP.

 

Unless the Sox get a dance partner, this can only be done internally or via the DFA/waiver process…

[Old Red]

Unless the Sox get a dance partner, this can only be done internally or via the DFA/waiver process…

 

As I’ve said before you don’t have to wait for the dance to start to get a dance partner. Time is wasted, and losses from three out of the last 4 games are a result.

[moonslav59]

Unless the Sox get a dance partner, this can only be done internally or via the DFA/waiver process…

 

Not many trades are being done, now, and we are just a week from the deadline.

 

Teams are waiting for desperation to overflow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Unless the Sox get a dance partner, this can only be done internally or via the DFA/waiver process…

 

Call up the freshest arm from Triple A and get him to Coors (it's not like the Sox haven't done this before, when guys were down in the pen).

 

Microsoft is mostly fixed, so transportation shouldn't be an issue; they don't need to use the Oregon Trail.

[moonslav59]

Since May 8th (not counting tonight):

 

fWAR

3.1 Duran

2.3 Devers

1.2 DHam

0.8 Rafaela

0.7 Valdez, O'Neill, Wong, Abreu

0.3 Romy, DSmith

0.2 Refsnyder

0.0 Westbrook

 

OPS

.960 Valdez

.949 Devers

.894 Duran

.783 O'Neill

.771 Abreu

.769 Ref

(.762 MLB)

.752 Wong

.744 Rafaela

.744 DHam

.725 DSmith

.724 Westbrook

.719 Romy

 

While our middle infield has not been great, it has been much improved, since May 8th.

[moonslav59]

NYM 3 NYY 2

MIA 6 BAL 3

PHI 3 MIN 0

After 7, OAK 8 HOU 1

After 8, LAA 5 SEA 1

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders (190+ PA)

1.113 Judge

1.033 Ohtani

1.020 Soto

.980 Ozuna

.979 Tucker

.977 Whitt

.970 Harper

.948 Devers 8th

.948 Rooker

.947 Henderson

.916 T Alvarez

.916 T Turner

.910 Yelich

.908 Kwan

.906 W Contreras

.897 Correa

.893 Betts

.891 O'Neill 18th

.888 Miranda

.885 Vientos

.868 Pederson

.858 Profar

.854 Fry

.854 Ramos

.849 Duran 25th

.844 Refsnyder 26th

.844 L Wade

.843 J Ramirez

.841 Vald

.838 Reynolds

.837 de la Cruz

.834 Josh Smith

.829 Buxton

.828 Santender

.825 C Walker

.822 Tatis

.820 Bohm

.817 Busch

.816 Burleson

.816 O'Hearn

.816 W Smith

.815 Seager

.815 Westburg

.812 S Perez

.811 B Lowe

.810 Abrams

.809 B Doyle

.803 Butler

.803 Winker

.802 Altuve

.800 Lindor

.798 Abreu 52nd

.797 Wong T53rd, F Alvarez, India, McMahon, Paredes

 

6 in the top 53!

3 more over .704, not counting Casas and Westbrook with too few PAs

[moonslav59]

Updated WC Standings

60-43 NYY

55-45 MIN

56-46 KCR

 

54-46 BOS -1.0 (In loss column: Tied w KCR, -1 MIN, -3 NYY, -6 BAL)

53-50 SEA -3.5 (T 1st in ALW)

51-50 TBR

(DET & TEX hanging around)

 

Even after that 4 game losing streak, we still have the 10th best record in MLB.

-0.5 ATL

-1.0 KCR & MIN

-3.5 MIL

-4.5 NYY

-5.5 LAD (thanks to the sweep)

-6.0 BAL & CLE

 

[moonslav59]

Sox Rotation ERAs

2.71 Houck 123 IP (106 ML high in IP/119 minors)

3.37 Crawford 118 IP (129 ML high/144 minors)

3.87 Pivetta 81 IP (180 ML, 164, 155, 143 ML other totals)

4.02 Criswell 65 IP (33 MLB, 117 twice in minors)

5.27 Bello 96 IP (157 in '23, 118 in minors '19)

[moonslav59]

Best 4 SP'ers in MLB with 60+ IP:

 

CHC: 4 in top 28!!!

13. Imanaga 2.86

21. Steele 3.07

23. Taillon 3.10

28. Assad 3.15

 

ATL: 2 in top 8 and 3 in top 22

2. Lopez 2.12

8. Sale 2.70

22. Fried 3.08

73. Morton 3.92

 

PHI: 3 in top 17

9. Wheeler 2.70

14. Suarez 2.87

17. C Sanchez 2.97

46. Nola 3.54

 

SEA: 4 in top 48

12. Gilbert 2.79

33. Kirby 3.20

39. Miller 3.41

48. Castillo 3.55

 

KCR: 3 in top 34

5. Lugo 2.38

19. Singer 3.00

34. Ragans 3.23

50. Wacha 3.55

 

BAL: 2 in top 25

4. Burnes 2.38

25. Suarez 3.13

67. Rodriguez 3.83

79. Irvin 4.06

 

DET: 3 in top 35

3. Skubal 2.34

24. Flaherty 3.13

35. Olson 3.23

86. Mize 4.23

 

BOS: 4 in top 79

10. Houck 2.71

36. Crawford 3.33

69. Pivetta 3.87

79. Criswell 4.02

 

PIT 4 in top 80

1. Skenes 1.90

37. Keller 3.34

51. J Jones 3.56

80. Falter 4.08

[moonslav59]

Although KC has a pretty mild schedule in mid September, they end the season in ATL and have a pretty tough schedule through early Sept:

2 AZ

3 CHC

3@CWS, then BAM!

4 @DET

3 BOS

2 STL

3@MN

3@CIN

3 LAA

3 PHI

4@CLE

4@HOU

3 CLE

3 MN

3@NYY

 

MIN ends the season w 4 @CLE, 3 at BOS, 3 v MIA and 3 v BAL

Their next few series:

2 PHI

3@DET

3@NYM

3 CWS

3@CHC

4 CLE

3 KCR

4@TEX

3@SDP

3 STL

3 ATL

 

[Old Red]

The Red Sox put a little bandage on that four game gaping wound last night, and hopefully it heals better today. Remember BIG Brother Brez is watching it.

[Old Red]

Happy 20th anniversary to Arod getting a good taste of Tek’s catcher’s mitt. I t couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.

[Maxbialystock]

Sox Rotation ERAs

2.71 Houck 123 IP (106 ML high in IP/119 minors)

3.37 Crawford 118 IP (129 ML high/144 minors)

3.87 Pivetta 81 IP (180 ML, 164, 155, 143 ML other totals)

4.02 Criswell 65 IP (33 MLB, 117 twice in minors)

5.27 Bello 96 IP (157 in '23, 118 in minors '19)

 

Well said on all those posts. On last night's game thread I said--

 

1. I over-reacted to the 4 losses--no surprise.

2. The Sox are definitely in the wild card hunt.

3. The Sox hitting--total runs scored--is now 9th in MLB, best it's been all season.

4. The team ERA, 3.71, is right now 6th in MLB. Before last night it was 10th. How is that possible? Right now 7 MLB teams--Cleveland, Boston, Baltimore, Cubs, Dodgers, Royals, and Brewers--have team ERA's ranging from 3.69 to 3.76.

[moonslav59]

Well said on all those posts. On last night's game thread I said--

 

1. I over-reacted to the 4 losses--no surprise.

2. The Sox are definitely in the wild card hunt.

3. The Sox hitting--total runs scored--is now 9th in MLB, best it's been all season.

4. The team ERA, 3.71, is right now 6th in MLB. Before last night it was 10th. How is that possible? Right now 7 MLB teams--Cleveland, Boston, Baltimore, Cubs, Dodgers, Royals, and Brewers--have team ERA's ranging from 3.69 to 3.76.

 

We are top 10 on O, top 10 in pitching, bottom 10 on defense and top 10 on baserunning. Why cant we be a playoff team?

[Maxbialystock]

Today @ 3:15 it's Pivetta vs Quantrill. Gotta give the Sox the edge.

 

Then Thursday off followed by 3 vs the Yankees and 3 vs Mariners at the Fens. By the end of those 6 games, we will know one very important thing--whether or not JH and his CBO support this Sox team.

 

In JH's defense, Breslow's 2 biggest offseason deals, Sale and Giolito, almost destroyed this 2024 Sox team by giving away a great starter and bringing in a useless one to the tune of $55M.

 

In Breslow's defense, he insisted on a new pitching coach, Bailey, who has transformed the Sox pitching staff, which is still better than the overpaid 2018 and 2019 staffs.

[Maxbialystock]

We are top 10 on O, top 10 in pitching, bottom 10 on defense and top 10 on baserunning. Why cant we be a playoff team?

 

Statistically, the Sox have the worst defense in the entire history of baseball.

 

But stats are funny and even malleable. I prefer lying, cheating, unreliable snapshots. I think the unearned runs are fewer and farther between since about 12 June.

Edited July 24, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Statistically, the Sox have the worst defense in the entire history of baseball.

 

But stats are funny and even malleable. I prefer lying, cheating, unreliable snapshots. I think the unearned runs are fewer and farther between since about 1 July.

 

We had the worst D ever until May, but things have changed.

 

Taem D:

We are currently 24 in team OAA (-12)

25th in UZR/150 at -2.1

11th in DRS (+26) amazingly

I'd say bottom 10 covers it, especially after May. (Besides, are pitching could be said to be top 6-8 not top 10.

 

Speaking of shifting and malleable stats.

 

Sox before May 15 and after...

 

Before May 15th

14th in runs scored and 12th in OPS

2nd in runs allowed (including unERs) and 1st in ERA

 

May 15>>>

4th in runs scored and 3rd in team OPS (.001 from 2nd)

27th in runs allowed (21st in ERs allowed) and 21st in ERA

 

fangraphs does not allow a fielding breakdown by dates, but we allowed 33 UNErs in the first 43 games and 33 UNERs in the last 59 games, so it has improved.