A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Hugh2]

duh. i just think it's hilarious that they drafted a guy that was injured. they literally paid Paxton and Hendricks to rehab as well as Adalberto who never even played a f***ing game for the Sox. brilliant signing there. then they trade Sale because well....he got hurt a lot. but wasn't hurt when they traded him. so....they traded him for spite or to save $10M. i hope the guy is an all-star. and, on the bright side...he's not a HS "suspect".

 

Yeah but you’re equating him to MLBers who are expected to contribute. It’s his job to develop, he’s about 3 years away from contributing to the majors in a meaningful way

[d-money]

That series on the road against the dodgers after the all star break will tell us about this team. 6 game road trip out west before taking on the Yankees at home.

[Old Red]

That series on the road against the dodgers after the all star break will tell us about this team. 6 game road trip out west before taking on the Yankees at home.

 

The Dodgers haven’t been playing that good of ball 3-8 of their last 11. Mookie is still out, and they are missing a good part of their starting rotation on the IL. The schedule will get tougher though through the end of August. Looking good on July 14th, but Sept 1 will be the real telltale on where they are, and how good they are.

[Maxbialystock]

That series on the road against the dodgers after the all star break will tell us about this team. 6 game road trip out west before taking on the Yankees at home.

 

Every series tells us more about this team, even the 4 game series the Sox split with the pale Sox.

 

But since you raised this topic, a couple of points.

 

The Sox have already taken 2/3 from the Phillies, who have the best won-lost record in MLB, and they did it in Boston, where the Sox still have a losing record.

 

The two winningest teams in the AL right now are the Orioles, who took 5 of 6 from the Sox, and the Guardians, who took 5 of 7.

 

As for the Dodgers, while they are definitely a good team, they miss Betts. They are 11-12 since he went on the IL. They just lost 2 of 3 in Detroit and 3 of 3 in Philly and are now 56-41, which would put them 2 games ahead of the Sox.

 

Right now the NL West, against whom the Dodgers play 52 games this season, are kind of lousy. The AL East still has the best W-L record in MLB. Thus, in part, do the Dodgers have a +88 run differential, twice the Sox +44. The Sox have better pitching and the Dodgers better hitting (but maybe not with Mookie out).

[Randy Red Sox]

Montgomery was a top 8 on many boards. Not a huge bargain to get him 12. But nice to just take the top guy available…

 

yeah because if he is good we can trade him for a young cost controlled SP right???

[Hugh2]

yeah because if he is good we can trade him for a young cost controlled SP right???

 

They drafted a pitcher at 50.

 

Maybe they can trade him for a hitter.

[mvp 78]

They drafted a pitcher at 50.

 

Maybe they can trade him for a hitter.

 

You can't trade a drafted player until the offseason.

[mvp 78]

yeah because if he is good we can trade him for a young cost controlled SP right???

 

Sox don't have many big power guys in the system. Good to get a guy that falls into your lap like that.

[Nick]

It appears, Paxton is only starting lefty in the rotation right now unless they have someone coming up from the minors.

 

Rockies also have one left handed starter, Gomber with ERA of 4.61. Our bats should score some runs.

 

4-2 doesn't seem out of reach.

[mvp 78]

It appears, Paxton is only starting lefty in the rotation right now unless they have someone coming up from the minors.

 

Rockies also have one left handed starter, Gomber with ERA of 4.61. Our bats should score some runs.

 

4-2 doesn't seem out of reach.

 

Not out of reach, but the Dodgers are still not an easy matchup in LA. Easiest way to get to 4-2 would be to sweep the lowly Rockies.

[Nick]

Let's be self critical of this board. Admit everything we were wrong about.

 

1) Tanner Houck, projected by the team as #5 starter, there are many on this board always thought he and Whitlock should be relievers. The biggest complaint was he didn't throw enough effective pitches and hard trouble getting through the line up second and third time around.

 

2) Duran, there were some doubts as to whether he can have a starting role and still questioned his ability to play center.

 

3) Rafaela, many wanted him to work out his swing selection in the minors. Other like myself was little more astute (lol, I'm not astute) saying Rafaela played good enough defense, let him bat 9th and work it out. I DON'T BELIEVE HITTING AGAINST MINOR LEAGUE PITCHERS WILL HAVE HELPED WITH SWING SELECTION. THEY DON'T THROW LIKE THE MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHERS FOR ONE.

 

We're fortunate that starting pitching has held up, bullpen has been pretty solid and peripheral players such as Hamilton, Abreu, O'Neill and others have supplemented our offense.

[mvp 78]

Let's be self critical of this board. Admit everything we were wrong about.

 

1) Tanner Houck, projected by the team as #5 starter, there are many on this board always thought he and Whitlock should be relievers. The biggest complaint was he didn't throw enough effective pitches and hard trouble getting through the line up second and third time around.

 

2) Duran, there were some doubts as to whether he can have a starting role and still questioned his ability to play center.

 

3) Rafaela, many wanted him to work out his swing selection in the minors. Other like myself was little more astute (lol, I'm not astute) saying Rafaela played good enough defense, let him bat 9th and work it out. I DON'T BELIEVE HITTING AGAINST MINOR LEAGUE PITCHERS WILL HAVE HELPED WITH SWING SELECTION. THEY DON'T THROW LIKE THE MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHERS FOR ONE.

 

We're fortunate that starting pitching has held up, bullpen has been pretty solid and peripherals players such as Hamilton, Abreu, O'Neill and others have supplemented our offense.

 

We were correct last season about Whitlock and Houck. This Spring, Houck showed off a revamped splitter which has helped get him through the lineup again and again. Whitlock also looked really great in the rotation early on, but his body just can't stay healthy.

 

I don't know how he figured out to play defense. He was so bad a few years ago. Ok last season. He's been great this year. It just took him so long to get there and understand route running.

 

Rafaela is still only hitting 691, 84 wRC+. That's worse than any JBJ year from 2015-20.

[Hugh2]

You can't trade a drafted player until the offseason.

 

I was being sarcastic, but while we are on the topic could a draft pick hypothetically be a PTBNL?

[mvp 78]

I was being sarcastic, but while we are on the topic could a draft pick hypothetically be a PTBNL?

 

I'm not sure. I believe the PTBNL needs to be on a list agreed to at the time of the trade so maybe not?

[notin]

yeah because if he is good we can trade him for a young cost controlled SP right???

 

How many of those pitchers available to the Sox at 12 ate going to fit into that description?

[mvp 78]

How many of those pitchers available to the Sox at 12 ate going to fit into that description?

 

How many darts to I get and how many incorrect guesses?

[notin]

I'm not sure. I believe the PTBNL needs to be on a list agreed to at the time of the trade so maybe not?

 

And a PTBNL cannot be on the 40 man roster…

[notin]

How many darts to I get and how many incorrect guesses?

 

It’s a draft pick. You get one guess…

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure. I believe the PTBNL needs to be on a list agreed to at the time of the trade so maybe not?

 

I don't know either, and I can't think of a player drafted ever being a PTBNL, but then again I don't follow other teams prospects that get traded that much AND you'd think a player just drafted is going to hold a lot more value to the drafting team. Not really the kind of guy you trade.

[notin]

I don't know either, and I can't think of a player drafted ever being a PTBNL, but then again I don't follow other teams prospects that get traded that much AND you'd think a player just drafted is going to hold a lot more value to the drafting team. Not really the kind of guy you trade.

 

 

Actually drafted players used to be dealt as PTBNLs quite frequently, because teams could use the 6 months before naming the player to partially get around the rule of not trading draftees for a full year. Trea Turner was notably traded in the deal that changed this rule.

 

PTBNLs can still come from an agreed-upon list, and it can even be conditional. “If our new pitcher makes 20 appearances, you get A. 15-19 appearance gets you B…”, etc.

 

The only change in the last couple years is they cannot come from the 40-man roster. So players like John McDonald and Harry Chiti who were traded for themselves this way are now officially a thing of the past…

[mvp 78]

It’s a draft pick. You get one guess…

 

Do overs? Injury insurance?

[notin]

Do overs? Injury insurance?

 

Sure, but it’s going to cost you…

[Nick]

5'4" release point from a 6'6" guy? Average D1 release point is 6'0".

 

Is that lower than say Chris Sale?

[mvp 78]

5'4" release point from a 6'6" guy? Average D1 release point is 6'0".

 

Is that lower than say Chris Sale?

 

Sale is currently throwing at 5.1 his career low. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=519242#release_points The two players are the same height.

[Hugh2]

4 of the 7 draftees have been pitchers so far.

[moonslav59]

When is the last time we drafted so few middle IFers in the first 7 picks?

[Hugh2]

When is the last time we drafted so few middle IFers in the first 7 picks?

 

First time in the bonus pool era the Sox did NOT draft a college senior either.

[dgalehouse]

Nothing to do with anything, but watching Triston Casas and hearing him talk , he looks and sounds a lot like the former boxing champion, Oscar De La Hoya. If he has an MLB career like De La Hoya had in the ring , it will be great to see.

[moonslav59]

Not much new on the injury report.

 

Casas "took soft toss and swung off a tee." I'm not sure he'll be ready by the deadline. (Good thing D Smith has stepped it up.)

 

Martin is still "feeling discomfort."

 

Grissom rehabs in Woo.

 

Mata throws 2-3 innings on Sunday, and the decision will be made on what to do with the out-of-options pitcher.

 

Slaten began his 15 day IL on July 12th. No word on him.

 

Hendriks threw a bullpen session last Wednesday. Not sure when his ETA is, but August 1st seems like a stretch, now.

 

OUT: Giolito, Story, Whitlock, Murphy

 

 

 

 

Edited July 17, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox are 53-42.

 

In 2021: 57-38

2018: 66-29

2017: 53-42

2016: 54-41

2013: 58-37

2009: 56-39

2008: 55-40

2007: 56-39

2005: 53-42

2004: 52-43

2003: 55-40