A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Agreed, and not to the Sox.

 

I’d take a healthy Paxton, as long as he isn’t the only pitching add. He’s a better fifth starter than Criswell…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’d take a healthy Paxton, as long as he isn’t the only pitching add. He’s a better fifth starter than Criswell…

 

Paxton would be worth picking up for any team that might have a wild card series vs. Boston.

 

Then again, maybe KC should just pay for Paxton to pitch for NY, Toronto or Tampa -- the teams with the most regular season games left vs. the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

I’d take a healthy Paxton, as long as he isn’t the only pitching add. He’s a better fifth starter than Criswell…

 

I would, too, but we won't get Paxton.

[Larry Cook]

I would, too, but we won't get Paxton.

 

Why so negative

[moonslav59]

Why so negative

 

I'm hoping we do better. I'm not being negative.

[Randy Red Sox]

I would, too, but we won't get Paxton.

 

we had him but let him get away because Henry refused to open his wallet. we only pay for pitchers on the DL.

[Bellhorn04]

They just might have to sell. The pitching is falling apart. Houck is probably wearing down. No one really knows when Slaten or Martin will be back. Among other problems.

 

Breslow is in a very tough spot, especially since he's already promised to pick a lane.

Edited July 23, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

They just might have to sell. The pitching is falling apart. Houck is probably wearing down. No one really knows if any when Slaten or Martin will be back. Among other problems.

 

Breslow is in a very tough spot, especially since he's already promised to pick a lane.

 

Does he owe it to the team to just buy even if they are in a downturn considering the past two deadlines?

[Bellhorn04]

Does he owe it to the team to just buy even if they are in a downturn considering the past two deadlines?

 

I don't know, like I say, tough spot. Much too similar to the spot Bloom found himself in. No clear good options. But this is what they keep doing to themselves with their half-ass offseasons.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox ERA/OPSa by month:

 

Apr 2.62/.613

May 4.12/.688

Jun 4.38/.722

Jul 4.23/.730

[moonslav59]

Does he owe it to the team to just buy even if they are in a downturn considering the past two deadlines?

 

Pick a lane and go full throttle.

[Bellhorn04]

Pick a lane and go full throttle.

 

It's really looking like the sell lane now. They're 2 games out of the playoffs today and the pitching is trending toward disastrous.

 

There have been a lot of good developments, but I can't really see much hope for the pitching the rest of the way.

 

They'd have to acquire 2-3 decent arms and we know that ain't happening.

[Bellhorn04]

The worst possible thing Breslow can do is replicate Bloom's indecisive look, and he knows it. I don't envy him right now.

[moonslav59]

It's really looking like the sell lane now. They're 2 games out of the playoffs today and the pitching is trending toward disastrous.

 

There have been a lot of good developments, but I can't really see much hope for the pitching the rest of the way.

 

They'd have to acquire 2-3 decent arms and we know that ain't happening.

 

With Casas out maybe all year, and Slaten & Martin, as well, there does appear to be too many holes to fill without taking a big chunk out of the farm & future.

 

If all we needed was a 4th starter, a couple decent RP'ers and a RHB at SS or 1B, we could probably fill those needs by trading some prospects in the 10-30 range, plus MAYBE Abreu. Now, the list is so long, that probably can't be done, and I'm not so sure we'd want to take a massive chunk out of our farm depth, anyway.

 

I'm torn, right now. I did not expect this feeling to come, so suddenly. No 4 game stretch should ever do this, but it seems to have done so. The next 6 games could change that, but even if we go 5-1 or 4-2, it does look like making the playoffs might be at less than 50-50, and doing anything special in the playoffs at very long odds.

 

I'm not giving up, but this really sucks. What a gut punch!

[moonslav59]

The worst possible thing Breslow can do is replicate Bloom's indecisive look, and he knows it. I don't envy him right now.

 

If he picks the lane to be a buyer, and has JH's okay to add some salary, along the way, what would "decisive" look like?

 

To me, to get us to a legitimate contender, we'd need...

 

1 & 2. A solid #2 SP'er and a #5 or two #3/4's.

3. A solid set-up RP'er like Martin was in '23 and Slaten was until going on the IL, this year.

4. A solid middle RP'er

5. A meaningful RHB at SS (Rafaela to CF) or 1B. (Maybe both)

 

This is bare minimum needs. We might need more than the 5 additions I just listed.

 

How does Brez pull this off without selling low on Bleis or Cespedes and/or parting with Fitts or Sandlin?

 

It's hard to imagine him getting a solid #2 SP'er without giving up a top 5-9 prospect or two, even if he's a rental.

[Bellhorn04]

With Casas out maybe all year, and Slaten & Martin, as well, there does appear to be too many holes to fill without taking a big chunk out of the farm & future.

 

If all we needed was a 4th starter, a couple decent RP'ers and a RHB at SS or 1B, we could probably fill those needs by trading some prospects in the 10-30 range, plus MAYBE Abreu. Now, the list is so long, that probably can't be done, and I'm not so sure we'd want to take a massive chunk out of our farm depth, anyway.

 

I'm torn, right now. I did not expect this feeling to come, so suddenly. No 4 game stretch should ever do this, but it seems to have done so. The next 6 games could change that, but even if we go 5-1 or 4-2, it does look like making the playoffs might be at less than 50-50, and doing anything special in the playoffs at very long odds.

 

I'm not giving up, but this really sucks. What a gut punch!

 

moon, it's all about the lack of commitment at the top. If someone told you before the last offseason that the sum of the moves to the rotation would be as follows:

 

1) Trade Sale

2) Sign Giolito

3) Absolutely nothing else-even if a couple of guys (Giolito, Whitlock) go down for the season in a hurry

 

you would have wanted to slug them.

 

It's all about the pitching. As far as position players go, we've had a lot of good stuff and more on the way with the big prospects.

 

But they continue to criminally neglect the pitching. And as we can see now, Andrew Bailey is not in fact a magician.

[mvp 78]

I don't know, like I say, tough spot. Much too similar to the spot Bloom found himself in. No clear good options. But this is what they keep doing to themselves with their half-ass offseasons.

 

That's what happens when you limit your budget. Thanks John!

[mvp 78]

Red Sox ERA/OPSa by month:

 

Apr 2.62/.613

May 4.12/.688

Jun 4.38/.722

Jul 4.23/.730

 

They are who we thought they were!

[mvp 78]

With Casas out maybe all year, and Slaten & Martin, as well, there does appear to be too many holes to fill without taking a big chunk out of the farm & future.

 

Cora said that Casas is near 100%. Telling lies?

[moonslav59]

Cora said that Casas is near 100%. Telling lies?

 

I didn't know he said that. Last I heard, Casas was hitting the ball of a tee, and wasn't close to playing a rehab game.

 

CBS has him listed at a Sept 1st ETA.

[mvp 78]

I didn't know he said that. Last I heard, Casas was hitting the ball of a tee, and wasn't close to playing a rehab game.

 

CBS has him listed at a Sept 1st ETA.

 

@bradfo

Cora said Casas close to 100 percent and seems to be turning corner.

[Old Red]

They just might have to sell. The pitching is falling apart. Houck is probably wearing down. No one really knows when Slaten or Martin will be back. Among other problems.

 

Breslow is in a very tough spot, especially since he's already promised to pick a lane.

Good news/bad news. It’s only July 23, and 63 games left to go. The postseason isn’t starting tomorrow just like it wasn’t starting before the AllStar break. Only 4 games behind the Yankees in the loss column, and 2 games behind the Twins in the loss column, and only 1 game behind KC in the loss column, and none of those teams are any juggernauts anyway. It’s a very bad misconception on here that the team has to be good to make a big move, and I never believe that is true. You don’t have to make a move just to make the team better this year. On the other hand the schedule is going to get a lot tougher to the end of the season, and the smoke, and mirrors of a patchwork IF that been that way for months now, and the over achieving, and now over worked pitching staff can’t keep up anymore. Injuries have really taken its toll on the backend of the BP, and 3 of these last losses could have gone in the win column, and the sky, which appears to be falling now wouldn’t appear that way.

[moonslav59]

They are who we thought they were!

 

Our biggest need after April, seemed to be middle IF and a RHB.

 

Strangely, the Rafaela, DHam, Romy and even some mini hot streaks by Valdez and Westbrook, seemed to stabilize the MI, or at worst turn if from being horrific on O and D, to being halfway decent.

 

O'Neill and Ref have done okay vs LHPs, but not really consistently.

 

However, our rankings since May 1st supports the idea that we should still be above a .500 team:

 

fWAR

Still 3rd in pitching at 12.3, but just 0.4 from being 7th.

14th in O+D at 9.4 (0.8 from #10 and 2.3 from #20- much closer to top 10 than bottom 10, though.)

12th in runs scored (3 runs from #10)

6th in OPS & 9th in wRC+

24th in OAA

 

Simply put, since May 1st, we have been about a ...

 

Top 7 team in pitching (maybe top 4 due to poor D hurting the numbers)

Top 12 in batting

Bottom 7 on defense

 

[moonslav59]

@bradfo

Cora said Casas close to 100 percent and seems to be turning corner.

 

I wasn't doubting your reporting.

 

I guess the uniqueness of the Casas injury might preclude him from even starting to swing a bat with full force, until he reaches exactly 100%, hence no rehab games.

[Old Red]

They are who we thought they were!

 

Awesome, or Underdogs?

[mvp 78]

I wasn't doubting your reporting.

 

I guess the uniqueness of the Casas injury might preclude him from even starting to swing a bat with full force, until he reaches exactly 100%, hence no rehab games.

 

I didn't say you were. Was just providing backup.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox selling off really looks like the smarter move right now.

 

It might also result in the team ending up with 75 wins or less, which will be just a tad embarrassing for Sam and company.

[notin]

The Sox selling off really looks like the smarter move right now.

 

It might also result in the team ending up with 75 wins or less, which will be just a tad embarrassing for Sam and company.

 

It’s not time just yet to run up the white flag…

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not time just yet to run up the white flag…

 

I don't feel bad about running up the white flag in July when the front office does it before the season starts.

[Bellhorn04]

Ironically, I was hopeful the last two years around this time and wanted to buy. We all saw how that turned out.

 

Won't Get Fooled Again.