A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

I think you mean, "It's spending that makes the time right." And I'm not sure I agree. To me spending is first and foremost a gamble, especially if the contract is for 5 or more years. The contracts for David Price and Chris Sale were absolute failures. My guess is that Story will be too--pretty much on a par with the Yankees contract for Ellsbury. As bad as Story's injuries have been, he also has yet to hit the ball with any regularity. Yoshida so far has failed.

 

Meanwhile, however, the combination of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Criswell has been terrific and at bargain basement prices. Same goes for Duran, Abreu, Wong, Rafaela, McGuire, O'Neill, Refsnyder, Casas, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Bernardino, Kelly, Slaten, Booser, and Weissert. Devers is no bargain, but his OPS of .925 is nothing to sneeze at.

 

And who are the non-bargains on the 2024 Sox? Mainly the guys on the IL and/or playing for someone else but paid by the Sox: Story, Giolito, Sale, Whitlock, Yoshida, and Turner.

 

The Price deal might have been a failure, but it did lead to a ring in 2018.

 

Maybe we win without him- maybe not.

 

I'm not saying it was a good deal, but the time did come after we spent.

[moonslav59]

Hey, we clawed back to within a half game of MIN for the last WC slot. (Cue: It's too early...)

 

-5.5 from KCR

-4.5 from BAL

-0.5 from MIN

 

Whodathunk we'd see 3 ALC teams in the top 6.

 

We have the 12th best record in MLB and are 1 game behind a tie for 9th best.

 

The Yanks now have the best ERA in MLB, but we are still under 3.00:

 

2.92 NYY

2.99 BOS

3.17 PHI

3.23 LAD

3.28 CLE

3.32 BAL

3.33 ATL

3.40 KCR

 

We are 12th in runs scored (1 behind TEX and 4 behind BAL for top 10.)

 

Out of the top teams in least amount of earned runs allowed, here are the differentials between ERs and Runs allowed:

 

37 BOS

23 PHI

20 NYY & BAL

16 ATL

15 CLE

14 LAD

6 KCR

 

All I can say is "WOW!"

[Nick]

Hey, we clawed back to within a half game of MIN for the last WC slot. (Cue: It's too early...)

 

-5.5 from KCR

-4.5 from BAL

-0.5 from MIN

 

Whodathunk we'd see 3 ALC teams in the top 6.

 

We have the 12th best record in MLB and are 1 game behind a tie for 9th best.

 

The Yanks now have the best ERA in MLB, but we are still under 3.00:

 

2.92 NYY

2.99 BOS

3.17 PHI

3.23 LAD

3.28 CLE

3.32 BAL

3.33 ATL

3.40 KCR

 

We are 12th in runs scored (1 behind TEX and 4 behind BAL for top 10.)

 

Out of the top teams in least amount of earned runs allowed, here are the differentials between ERs and Runs allowed:

 

37 BOS

23 PHI

20 NYY & BAL

16 ATL

15 CLE

14 LAD

6 KCR

 

All I can say is "WOW!"

 

Yes! Instead of focusing on the past (Betts, Xander, Sale) we should focus on the player we have in our organization.

 

They ain't coming back.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hey, we clawed back to within a half game of MIN for the last WC slot. (Cue: It's too early...)

 

-5.5 from KCR

-4.5 from BAL

-0.5 from MIN

 

Whodathunk we'd see 3 ALC teams in the top 6.

 

 

 

I thought they'd all have a better shot because they only had to beat each other out for spots. But I thought the West was the best... Houston may have a problem, but also has a winning record in May.

 

I also called the East "vulnerable" (from the prediction thread): "But the AL East will not be the mighty division many expect it to be. There will not be three playoff teams in the East"

 

Can the Sox hang in there? I hope they do, at least through June, just to see what Breslow will be allowed to do. We know he's not sitting on his hands; even minor moves for Smith, Cooper and Short are moves...

[moonslav59]

Yes! Instead of focusing on the past (Betts, Xander, Sale) we should focus on the player we have in our organization.

 

They ain't coming back.

 

We have a pretty nice foundation or young and or controllable players at every position, along with strong or promising depth at most.

 

Our staff has some key pitchers on their last year, and we will need to add there to take the next step forward, but the core looks very promising, to me.

[Bellhorn04]

This team is showing some good resiliency. I think my man Cora has something to do with that.

[moonslav59]

This team is showing some good resiliency. I think my man Cora has something to do with that.

 

The Cora-Bailey-Breslow combo seems to have gelled, nicely.

 

We still have a ways to go, but the future looks brighter to those who allow some light to come in.

[Elktonnick]

There is that old say in baseball that you don't know the team you have until the 50 game mark. Well at 50 games the Red Sox are only a half game out of the third wild card slot.

If they can stay healthy and Breslow avoids Bloom's fecklessness at the trade deadline, they could make it.

Much to my surprise, this team is showing they have a real chance at making the playoffs.

It should be a fun ride toward September.

[moonslav59]

Staff ERAs in order of most IP

 

1.94 Houck (10 starts)

2.17 Crawford (10 starts)

4.04 Bello (I hope he can move towards 3.25)

2.86 Criswell (Will match Bello's 8 starts next game)

3.04 Pivetta (5 GS)

 

3.12 Slaten (17 games, almost all of them good)

3.33 Wink (In AAA getting his act together)

4.98 Anderson (Had one really bad game)

0.89 Bernardino (Proving he was no 2023 fluke)

2.21 Weissert (Looking like a nice addition)

3.26 Martin (Really in a groove, now.)

1.96 Whitlock (On the shelf, again)

3.71 Booser (Storybook history)

3.24 Jansen (17 IP and not overtaxed)

1.98 Kelly (10 BBs in 14 IP needs fixing)

 

Not counting Whitlock, that's a pretty nice group of 14 pitchers, going forward.

 

[moonslav59]

There is that old say in baseball that you don't know the team you have until the 50 game mark. Well at 50 games the Red Sox are only a half game out of the third wild card slot.

If they can stay healthy and Breslow avoids Bloom's fecklessness at the trade deadline, they could make it.

Much to my surprise, this team is showing they have a real chance at making the playoffs.

It should be a fun ride toward September.

 

It does help that being 2 games over .500 makes you 1 game behind the 9th best record in MLB, but I'm with you. We have a chance.

 

To me, this team is showing heart and soul, along with good old fashioned grit.

[Old Red]

It does help that being 2 games over .500 makes you 1 game behind the 9th best record in MLB, but I'm with you. We have a chance.

 

To me, this team is showing heart and soul, along with good old fashioned grit.

 

Yes it was good that the Red Sox swept Tampa, and are two games over 500, but this is still the same team that lost 2-3 games in St. Louis, and went to Tampa under 500.The ebb, and flow so far this season has been win some, lose some, win some, and lose some, and just like the game threads that can go gloom, and doom in 1 pitch the game to game is the same thing. Like I’ve been saying baseball is down, and Tampa is certainly not the same team pitching, or batting wise they have been the last 4-5 years, so yes this year the Red Sox have a chance, which is better than no chance. Heart,and soul, and grit i wouldn’t go that far. There is many rams out there just like the Red Sox, and remember the bar was set so low for the RedvSox before the season even started that two games over 500 looks a lot better to some than t really is.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, this is a team that will really make you bipolar. I think it's because on paper it's such a patchwork team with so many unproven quantities. When guys like Duran and Abreu and Wong are stepping up and playing like stars it obviously makes a huge difference.

[Nick]

We are the only team with a winning record not to be in the playoffs if the season ended last night.

 

Really a good job by Cora and his staff directing this group.

 

We can compete as long as our starting pitching stays effective.

 

The biggest 'acquisition' would be the return of Casas.

[mvp 78]

This team is showing some good resiliency. I think my man Cora has something to do with that.

 

And I think this lines up with what some smart posters were saying this offseason. The team would probably have a similar or worse record than last year, but would be more fun to watch.

[Bellhorn04]

And I think this lines up with what some smart posters were saying this offseason. The team would probably have a similar or worse record than last year, but would be more fun to watch.

 

And absolutely no one in their right mind saw the starting pitching being this good. It's still kind of hard to believe, after only signing Giolito who was promptly gone for the season. B & B have pulled off a minor miracle.

[mvp 78]

There is that old say in baseball that you don't know the team you have until the 50 game mark. Well at 50 games the Red Sox are only a half game out of the third wild card slot.

If they can stay healthy and Breslow avoids Bloom's fecklessness at the trade deadline, they could make it.

Much to my surprise, this team is showing they have a real chance at making the playoffs.

It should be a fun ride toward September.

 

After 50 games last season, they were 26-24.

[mvp 78]

And absolutely no one in their right mind saw the starting pitching being this good. It's still kind of hard to believe, after only signing Giolito who was promptly gone for the season. B & B have pulled off a minor miracle.

 

Offense has underperformed and the pitching has overperformed. All in all, they are about where we expected them to be. At least it seems like there are some bright spots unlike last season where the bright spot was just Casas.

[Bellhorn04]

In any case, sweeping the Rays in their own park was most unexpected and definitely lifts the spirits a bit.

[mvp 78]

In any case, sweeping the Rays in their own park was most unexpected and definitely lifts the spirits a bit.

 

Rays spanked the s*** out of them last season. If the Sox can hang around against divisional opponents, they'll have a much better shot at the WC.

[moonslav59]

And absolutely no one in their right mind saw the starting pitching being this good. It's still kind of hard to believe, after only signing Giolito who was promptly gone for the season. B & B have pulled off a minor miracle.

 

That is the story of the year for the Sox and their fans. It's a top 5 or 10 story for all of MLB.

[moonslav59]

When we lost to the Rays, we heard, "We can't beat the good teams."

 

Now, we sweep them, and it's "The Rays are not a good team, anymore."

 

(Okay, okay, this might be a bit fictionalized, but it does seem to be similar to what we've been hearing.)

[mvp 78]

When we lost to the Rays, we heard, "We can't beat the good teams."

 

Now, we sweep them, and it's "The Rays are not a good team, anymore."

 

(Okay, okay, this might be a bit fictionalized, but it does seem to be similar to what we've been hearing.)

 

The Rays are 28th in pitching fWAR and 19th in batting fWAR. They aren't a good team. They still had the Sox number for whatever reason. Glad they got over the hump for one series at least.

[Old Red]

When we lost to the Rays, we heard, "We can't beat the good teams."

 

Now, we sweep them, and it's "The Rays are not a good team, anymore."

 

(Okay, okay, this might be a bit fictionalized, but it does seem to be similar to what we've been hearing.)

 

Do you honestly think the Rays are as good a team as what they’ve been the last 4-5 years? They Are Not. Their pitching is nowhere as good, and hitting isn’t either. If you have a different opinion, and it makes you feel better that it makes the Red Sox looks better then think that way. Some teams like Tampa, and Toronto have dropped off. The Red Sox May be better, but then again maybe Toronto, and Tampa have come back down to their level. Take your pick.

[mvp 78]

Do you honestly think the Rays are as good a team as what they’ve been the last 4-5 years? They Are Not. Their pitching is nowhere as good, and hitting isn’t either. If you have a different opinion, and it makes you feel better that it makes the Red Sox looks better then think that way. Some teams like Tampa, and Toronto have dropped off. The Red Sox May be better, but then again maybe Toronto, and Tampa have come back down to their level. Take your pick.

 

He needs to rip on someone every time he posts lately even if he's making up an argument. Maybe something snaps in your brain after hitting 80k posts? IDK.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Do you honestly think the Rays are as good a team as what they’ve been the last 4-5 years? They Are Not. Their pitching is nowhere as good, and hitting isn’t either. If you have a different opinion, and it makes you feel better that it makes the Red Sox looks better then think that way. Some teams like Tampa, and Toronto have dropped off. The Red Sox May be better, but then again maybe Toronto, and Tampa have come back down to their level. Take your pick.

 

What if he Red Sox made the Rays worse by sweeping them?

[moonslav59]

The Rays are 28th in pitching fWAR and 19th in batting fWAR. They aren't a good team. They still had the Sox number for whatever reason. Glad they got over the hump for one series at least.

 

Agreed.

 

I wasn't the one saying "We can't eat good teams." (or our own division teams)

[moonslav59]

He needs to rip on someone every time he posts lately even if he's making up an argument. Maybe something snaps in your brain after hitting 80k posts? IDK.

 

I might have more posts, but you and Red lead the league in rips.

[Hugh2]

What if he Red Sox made the Rays worse by sweeping them?

 

 

If the sweeping was the other way around the Rays would currently be a playoff team.

[moonslav59]

If the sweeping was the other way around the Rays would currently be a playoff team.

 

Yes, and by 2.5 games.

 

I do agree; they are not a good team, but they are about as good as we are, and about 10 other teams in the current ranks of about 9th to 18th in MLB.

[notin]

The Rays are 28th in pitching fWAR and 19th in batting fWAR. They aren't a good team.

 

 

And yet they will somehow still be in the postseason hunt come September...