A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

One thing I've noticed over the years, and this applies to more than just sports. Is it takes people a LOT longer to like someone they've decided in their mind is bad, or not good enough etc etc. than it does to take someone to dislike someone they've decided was good.

 

The people who have made up their minds about Yoshida will probably need two back-to-back MVP seasons for them to say "You know what.....it was a good signing" but even then they won't ever go full in wrong they will say something like "yeah well, a more competent GM would have signed him for less money" conversely if someone's favorite player turns out to be serial child murderer rapist then some will exit ship but others would cling to any piece of information out there if it said other wise...even if it was from Myunclesfriendatthegymtoldmesoitcan'tbefake.com

 

It's amazing how the human mind works.

 

Very true, and the thing about the bias was that it was founded only on articles saying some baseball people think we overpaid for him and or a hazy view of Japanese baseball players, in general- not on any actual baseball knowledge.

 

They remember Dice-K.

 

They remember Castillo.

 

I know our scouts have been wrong, before, but they were really nutty about this guy, so I'm thinking he should be, at least, decent.

[Old Red]

His hard contact is about MLB average per Statcast. His groundball rate was just too high. Maybe there are more artificial surfaces where he played before? Maybe he is being pitched to differently? He is showing in a small sample that his approach has changed. We have to see how this plays out over a whole season rather than a few weeks.

 

You have to go to Statcast? Playing ping pong with the infielders for the most part is what your eyes should have shown you so far. Yes his 2 HR, and 6 RBI were great yesterday, but for the most part he had been unproductive, and certainly shouldn’t have been batting 4th.

[mvp 78]

You have to go to Statcast? Playing ping pong with the infielders for the most part is what your eyes should have shown you so far. Yes his 2 HR, and 6 RBI were great yesterday, but for the most part he had been unproductive, and certainly shouldn’t have been batting 4th.

 

Good thing his 2 HR's yesterday still counted and aren't imaginary as some posters are seemingly suggesting today.

[mvp 78]

Very true, and the thing about the bias was that it was founded only on articles saying some baseball people think we overpaid for him and or a hazy view of Japanese baseball players, in general- not on any actual baseball knowledge.

 

They remember Dice-K.

 

They remember Castillo.

 

I know our scouts have been wrong, before, but they were really nutty about this guy, so I'm thinking he should be, at least, decent.

 

Dice-K was good for 2 years. His arm was gone after then. There have been lots of good players to come from over there. The talent level doesn't have the disparity that there once was especially when we are talking about velo.

[moonslav59]

Good thing good managers don't believe that a past 4 week sample size projects the next 4 weeks production.

 

As a great poster once said, "Yes, Confirmation Bias is a real thing."

[Nick]

I'm getting concerned about our pen usage with having a 6 man rotation. It's great that a starter is getting an extra day's rest but at what cost?

 

Kutter and Winckowski can't go back to back days, needing two or three days rest sometime. Janssen is good for one inning.

 

That's puts stress on Bleier, Ort, Schreiber and Brasier.

 

We will be off the 19 straight games schedule soon. We need to get back to 5 man.

 

It's one thing if all the starters are going 6 innings, but we're not there yet.

 

Cora's got some tough decisions to make.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Nick

[Old Red]

Good thing his 2 HR's yesterday still counted and aren't imaginary as some posters are seemingly suggesting today.

 

Sure they counted yesterday, but one game as good as it was does not make a season. I would say up to this point in the short season so far on a game by game basis Yoshida has hurt more than he’s helped win a game like he did yesterday.

[Nick]

Good thing his 2 HR's yesterday still counted and aren't imaginary as some posters are seemingly suggesting today.

 

I hope you're not counting me in that 'some' poster. My only comment was not getting the hitting production out of LF and 1B. Look mom, after one game, Yoshida's OPS jumped to .700's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yikes... Well, my rule has always been not to get too worked up until Memorial Day. Even if I'm saying DFArroyo, I think a guy like him has another month to pull out of it. Overall, I want to see what the Sox look like at the end of May before I freak out either way.

 

Don't worry, it's guaranteed by then you'll read or hear someone still say, "But it's only Memorial Day!"

 

The Rays could be 50-5, but a fan or player of a losing team will insist it's still early.

 

It's amazing how doctors with advanced medical degrees can determine so much from tiny vials and plastic cups...

[mvp 78]

Sure they counted yesterday, but one game as good as it was does not make a season. I would say up to this point in the short season so far on a game by game basis Yoshida has hurt more than he’s helped win a game like he did yesterday.

 

It's a game where you get out 6 to 7 times out of 10 when you step to the plate, so yeah...

[mvp 78]

I hope you're not counting me in that 'some' poster. My only comment was not getting the hitting production out of LF and 1B. Look mom, after one game, Yoshida's OPS jumped to .700's.

 

I would never.

[mvp 78]

Don't worry, it's guaranteed by then you'll read or hear someone still say, "But it's only Memorial Day!"

 

The Rays could be 50-5, but a fan or player of a losing team will insist it's still early.

 

It's amazing how doctors with advanced medical degrees can determine so much from tiny vials and plastic cups...

 

You do understand how a tiny vial and plastic cup a DR is working with is not the same as a 23 game sample from an MLB season, right? It's not analogous in any way.

[Maxbialystock]

You have to go to Statcast? Playing ping pong with the infielders for the most part is what your eyes should have shown you so far. Yes his 2 HR, and 6 RBI were great yesterday, but for the most part he had been unproductive, and certainly shouldn’t have been batting 4th.

 

Oh, stuff it. Forget Yoshida and look at the freaking team numbers. These Sox this season are the "no name offense." We got Devers, period. Everybody else is pretty much unknown or, as is the case with Yoshida, a presumed failure.

 

Despite that, the Sox are currently 3d in MLB in runs scored. They just hammered the 6th best pitching staff (ERA 3.47) in MLB--who were the 2d best before the Sox came to town. Before the Brewers, they hammered the Twins excellent pitching staff.

 

You don't like "ping-pong" with the infield, but what I see is Cora making necessary adjustments. The only real adjustment is replacing Kike with Chang at SS, and that sure looks like a smart move. Kike is now at 2b and hitting, and Duran is in CF hitting even better.

 

This "no-name" Sox offense is scoring runs, and don't you forget it.

[moonslav59]

I'm getting concerned about our pen usage with having a 6 man rotation. It's great that a starter is getting an extra day's rest but at what cost?

 

Kutter and Winckowski can't go back to back days, needing two or three days rest sometime. Janssen is good for one inning.

 

That's puts stress on Bleier, Ort, Schreiber and Brasier.

 

We will be off the 19 straight games schedule soon. We need to get back to 5 man.

 

It's one thing if all the starters are going 6 innings, but we're not there yet.

 

Cora's got some tough decisions to make.

 

I think the 13 man staff has helped with overuse issues, but your concern is valid.

 

When people complain about Cora using Ort and Brasier, maybe they should be thinking about how it helps Jansen, Schreiber, Bleier, Crawford and Wink from being overused.

 

We might be adding Martin, soon. If Paxton comes in to piggyback or push a starter to the pen, that may take some heat off the innings by the pen.

 

MLB RP IP Leaders:

 

2. Wink 16.1

21. Brasier 12.1 (only 3 PAs in high leverage)

25. Ort 12.0 (only 12 PAs in high leverage)

 

34. Craw 11.1

49. Schreiber 11.0

 

96. Bleier 9.2

 

2003. Jansen 7.0

 

[jad]

Oh, stuff it. Forget Yoshida and look at the freaking team numbers. These Sox this season are the "no name offense." We got Devers, period. Everybody else is pretty much unknown or, as is the case with Yoshida, a presumed failure.

Despite that, the Sox are currently 3d in MLB in runs scored. They just hammered the 6th best pitching staff (ERA 3.47) in MLB--who were the 2d best before the Sox came to town. Before the Brewers, they hammered the Twins excellent pitching staff.

 

You don't like "ping-pong" with the infield, but what I see is Cora making necessary adjustments. The only real adjustment is replacing Kike with Chang at SS, and that sure looks like a smart move. Kike is now at 2b and hitting, and Duran is in CF hitting even better.

 

This "no-name" Sox offense is scoring runs, and don't you forget it.

 

Gosh. Who would have guessed that I have never heard of Verdugo or Turner? Thanks for straightening this out for me.

[moonslav59]

Sarcasm does not translate well on these sites.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You do understand how a tiny vial and plastic cup a DR is working with is not the same as a 23 game sample from an MLB season, right? It's not analogous in any way.

 

Yet, every time I'm asked for a couple drops of bodily fluids, I tell the nurses, "It's still early..."

[moonslav59]

Remember how weak our OF was, last year?

 

This year, it ranks 4th in OF fWAR at +2.8.

 

We all know our rotation has sucked (29th in fWAR at -0.3), so far, but these three slots have hurt, too:

 

MLB Rank

23rd SS 0.1

26th 2B -0.5

27th 1B -0.5

 

Our strengths:

3rd CF 1.4

4th 3B 1.2

5th DH 0.4

6th RF 1.1

7th LF 0.6

10th Pen 0.9

 

Middle:

14th C 0.3

[mvp 78]

Remember how weak our OF was, last year?

 

This year, it ranks 4th in OF fWAR at +2.8.

 

We all know our rotation has sucked (29th in fWAR at -0.3), so far, but these three slots have hurt, too:

 

MLB Rank

23rd SS 0.1

26th 2B -0.5

27th 1B -0.5

 

Our strengths:

3rd CF 1.4

4th 3B 1.2

5th DH 0.4

6th RF 1.1

7th LF 0.6

10th Pen 0.9

 

Middle:

14th C 0.3

 

Was that before or after Masa's SSS HR's?

[moonslav59]

Was that before or after Masa's SSS HR's?

 

Most players have SSS HRs.

 

(It was after the game-winning barrage.)

[Hugh2]

Don’t look now but Yoshida is up to .265 with a .789 ops

[moonslav59]

This team just can't find a groove.

[Bellhorn04]

This team just can't find a groove.

 

The starting rotation is killing us, plain and simple.

[moonslav59]

The starting rotation is killing us, plain and simple.

 

Agreed, and for a team known for developing non pitchers on their farm, why have we stopped investing in the rotation, either with our largest contracts or via trade?

 

Our largest signings:

 

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida

$32M/2 Jansen

$24M/3 Kike ($14M/2 + $10M/1)

$22M/2 Turner

$18M/2 Martin

 

Even JBJ got paid more than Richards & Kluber.

[mvp 78]

Oh, stuff it. Forget Yoshida and look at the freaking team numbers. These Sox this season are the "no name offense." We got Devers, period. Everybody else is pretty much unknown or, as is the case with Yoshida, a presumed failure.

 

As of today, Masa is:

789 OPS

119 wRC+

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and for a team known for developing non pitchers on their farm, why have we stopped investing in the rotation, either with our largest contracts or via trade?

 

Our largest signings:

 

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida

$32M/2 Jansen

$24M/3 Kike ($14M/2 + $10M/1)

$22M/2 Turner

$18M/2 Martin

 

Even JBJ got paid more than Richards & Kluber.

 

Sox aren't acting like a large market franchise anymore, but the tickets will still be $$$. Thanks, Henry! Enjoy that checkbook!

[notin]

Agreed, and for a team known for developing non pitchers on their farm, why have we stopped investing in the rotation, either with our largest contracts or via trade?

 

Our largest signings:

 

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida

$32M/2 Jansen

$24M/3 Kike ($14M/2 + $10M/1)

$22M/2 Turner

$18M/2 Martin

 

Even JBJ got paid more than Richards & Kluber.

 

That’s very likely why the Sox want Houck, Whitlock and Bello in the rotation…

[moonslav59]

That’s very likely why the Sox want Houck, Whitlock and Bello in the rotation…

 

I'm not against that idea, and Pivetta is a solid #5, but we need to direct some resources at the rotation, at some point.

 

I understand needing to give Sale a shot at having a significant role in the rotation, and that makes 5 One could argue Kluber was just insurance for Sale/Paxton, if this was "the view:"

 

Whitlock

Houck

Bello

Sale/Kluber/Paxton

Pivetta

(Mata, Walter and Murphy in the wings)

 

But, where is the ace, or even the sure #2?

 

I've been one to argue the money has not been there for Bloom to build a solid team from top to bottom, until just recently, and I still think that and the lack of farm infusion is the major reason we have struggled for 3+ years, but we've spent a lot of money since the march 2022 Story signing, and precious little has been on the rotation.

 

In life, you get what you pay for, and we've paid squat.

 

(BTW, I didn't even put the devers extension on my list of non-pitcher expenditures.)

[moonslav59]

Sox aren't acting like a large market franchise anymore, but the tickets will still be $$$. Thanks, Henry! Enjoy that checkbook!

 

I disagree.

 

$314M/10 Devers

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

$32M/2 Jansen

$22M/2 Turner

$17M/2 Martin

$10M/1 Kluber

$10M/1 Kike

$7M/1 Duvall

 

How many MLB teams have spent more than this, since march 2022?

 

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree.

 

$314M/10 Devers

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

$32M/2 Jansen

$22M/2 Turner

$17M/2 Martin

$10M/1 Kluber

$10M/1 Kike

$7M/1 Duvall

 

How many MLB teams have spent more than this, since march 2022?

 

 

But we're middle of the pack in actual 2023 payroll, which is the first time this has happened under Henry.

 

And they let go of Bogaerts and Eovaldi's salaries, of course. It's misleading if you don't factor in the subtractions.

 

All depends on how you look at it, right?