A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

Sox aren't acting like a large market franchise anymore, but the tickets will still be $$$. Thanks, Henry! Enjoy that checkbook!

 

You are correct. This is why we get a Kluber.

[moonslav59]

But we're middle of the pack in actual 2023 payroll, which is the first time this has happened under Henry.

 

And they let go of Bogaerts and Eovaldi's salaries, of course. It's misleading if you don't factor in the subtractions.

 

All depends on how you look at it, right?

 

We are middle of the pack, because we slashed the budget in 2020 and barely replaced what we lost until the Story signing. The devers contract has not kicked in, but it does count as spending hugely, right?

 

I look at new spending vs outgoing contracts.

 

When you look at 2019>2020, with the loss of Betts, 1/2 Price and Porcello, it took us to the Story signing to get back to even.

 

Since the Story signing, we have been a big market spender. That was my point.

 

If we spend like March 2022 to February 2013, again next winter and add the Devers contract, we will be top 3-4, again.

[moonslav59]

You are correct. This is why we get a Kluber.

 

We spent $650M since March 2022- just not on SP'ers. (I think, only $14M of that on Kluber and Paxton.)

 

We misplaced our priorities, again.

[Nick]

Devers contract also doesn't kick in until 2024 so really has no place in this year's finances.

 

The problem is BECAUSE we threw money at Kluber we are now obligated to give him 10 starts at minimum.

 

You don't think Bello doesn't watch Kluber and thinks to himself I am better

?

[Hugh2]

But we're middle of the pack in actual 2023 payroll, which is the first time this has happened under Henry.

 

And they let go of Bogaerts and Eovaldi's salaries, of course. It's misleading if you don't factor in the subtractions.

 

All depends on how you look at it, right?

 

What 15 teams are ahead of them? And it’s a reset year, they will go back over next year. This team like every other team not named NYM has reset every two years to set themselves up to spend big.

 

That’s a FACT.

[mvp 78]

I disagree.

 

$314M/10 Devers

$140M/6 Story

$90M/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

$32M/2 Jansen

$22M/2 Turner

$17M/2 Martin

$10M/1 Kluber

$10M/1 Kike

$7M/1 Duvall

 

How many MLB teams have spent more than this, since march 2022?

 

 

I like the "March 2022" qualifier.

[mvp 78]

But we're middle of the pack in actual 2023 payroll, which is the first time this has happened under Henry.

 

And they let go of Bogaerts and Eovaldi's salaries, of course. It's misleading if you don't factor in the subtractions.

 

All depends on how you look at it, right?

 

Middle of the pack in payroll = large market now

[mvp 78]

We are middle of the pack, because we slashed the budget in 2020 and barely replaced what we lost until the Story signing. The devers contract has not kicked in, but it does count as spending hugely, right?

 

I look at new spending vs outgoing contracts.

 

When you look at 2019>2020, with the loss of Betts, 1/2 Price and Porcello, it took us to the Story signing to get back to even.

 

Since the Story signing, we have been a big market spender. That was my point.

 

If we spend like March 2022 to February 2013, again next winter and add the Devers contract, we will be top 3-4, again.

 

Ah, so they slashed and slashed and slashed and then spent under the cap again, but that's a win for you? That's how a large market franchise acts to you? They were forced by their fanbase to sign one franchise player because their tickets are the second highest in the game and the owners were letting every great player leave for greener pastures, but the Sox are still acting like a large market franchise to you?

[mvp 78]

We spent $650M since March 2022- just not on SP'ers. (I think, only $14M of that on Kluber and Paxton.)

 

We misplaced our priorities, again.

 

SINCE MARCH 2022!

 

Is that what actually came out of Henry's wallet since then or no?

[mvp 78]

What 15 teams are ahead of them? And it’s a reset year, they will go back over next year. This team like every other team not named NYM has reset every two years to set themselves up to spend big.

 

That’s a FACT.

 

Why didn't they just go over again this year and sign one year deals? Why not reset next year when more young guys are projected to be promoted from the minors?

[moonslav59]

What 15 teams are ahead of them? And it’s a reset year, they will go back over next year. This team like every other team not named NYM has reset every two years to set themselves up to spend big.

 

That’s a FACT.

 

SPOTRAC has us 14th, but...

 

We have only $2.9M in "buried contracts."

We have just $5.6M in "retained."

 

For actual 26 man payroll, we are still 14th, but with $43M on the IL, we will move way up once Story, Duvall, paxton and Mondesi join the 26.

 

In overall salary, they have us at $178M.

$4M from #13 CHC

$6M from CWS & SFG

 

If we spend at the deadline, we could be #11, which is nearly top tier (top 1/3)

[moonslav59]

SINCE MARCH 2022!

 

Is that what actually came out of Henry's wallet since then or no?

 

He committed to spending $650M starting with the Story signing. That is huge. That is way more than 2/3 of the teams. It is more than probably 24-25 teams.

 

YES!

[moonslav59]

Why didn't they just go over again this year and sign one year deals? Why not reset next year when more young guys are projected to be promoted from the minors?

 

The short answer: they are not thinking 2023 is "the year."

 

The bigger question is about why didn't they reset, last year.

 

If the plan is to go big starting in 2024, it makes sense to have 2024 be the year one lux tax hit.

 

I was hoping we'd "go for it," this year, but it seems like that idea keeps being pushed back, or was secretly always 2024 or later.

[Hugh2]

SPOTRAC has us 14th, but...

 

We have only $2.9M in "buried contracts."

We have just $5.6M in "retained."

 

For actual 26 man payroll, we are still 14th, but with $43M on the IL, we will move way up once Story, Duvall, paxton and Mondesi join the 26.

 

In overall salary, they have us at $178M.

$4M from #13 CHC

$6M from CWS & SFG

 

If we spend at the deadline, we could be #11, which is nearly top tier (top 1/3)

 

Going by one year in a reset year is misleading. I think you have to take a 4-5 year average. I'm betting Sox are top 5 at least top 7 there. Maybe more.

[moonslav59]

Ah, so they slashed and slashed and slashed and then spent under the cap again, but that's a win for you? That's how a large market franchise acts to you? They were forced by their fanbase to sign one franchise player because their tickets are the second highest in the game and the owners were letting every great player leave for greener pastures, but the Sox are still acting like a large market franchise to you?

 

Where have I ever come close to even implying this is a "win?"

 

I'm just pointing out, that since the Story signing, we are not acting like a small market team. All big market teams, except the Mets, re-set the tax every 2-3 years.

 

We got so far behind, starting in 2019 (not 2020), that we were acting like a small market team. We aren't anymore. That position certainly has merit, whether you agree or not.

 

And, for your information, no I don't think it's a "win." I expected us to spend up to the line, this year and more on the rotation. I realize skyrocketing salaries affected who I thought we might be able to sign for the winter budget we had, but we still focused too much of what we did spend on offense and not pitching & defense. I like most of the deals we made, but the overall focus was off.

 

How is keeping Devers letting "every franchise player leave?"

 

We lost 2 of 3 and signed Story, instead of Bogey.

 

Again, YES we acted like a small market team from 2019 to the Story signing. That's about 3 calendar years. That's the longest stretch Henry did this, but he did have 1-2 year stretches before.

 

We are spending bigly, again. You can ignore the Devers signing, if you want, but it is real.

[Hugh2]

If you go back and look at payroll every single year, Sox are pretty much always in the top 5 or 7 and sometimes the top 3. The Dodgers and the Yankees are the only team consistently ahead of us. All other teams that beat us yearly on average are below us when you go by multi year. If you take a weighted average you can and should say the Sox are 3rd in payroll. In terms of payroll fire power.

 

Now, I think we can preemptively put them down to 4 because you have to assume NYM is going to outspend them now. But LA may be resetting next year because Bauer reinstated and screwed them. It could be between us and NY, unless another west coast team wants to go big.

 

I think Ohtani can be sold on coming to Boston. Find out who his best friend is and sign him. Maybe we can put together a really nice gift basket.

[moonslav59]

Going by one year in a reset year is misleading. I think you have to take a 4-5 year average. I'm betting Sox are top 5 at least top 7 there. Maybe more.

 

I think we will be top 5 in 2024, and stay top 5-7 for a while.

 

We may reset after 2-3 years, but if we are close to a ring in year 3-4, maybe not.

 

It's just my opinion, but cycling big spending has been henry's m.o., so I'm not sure why so many are so convinced, he's turned into a mizer for life.

[moonslav59]

If you go back and look at payroll every single year, Sox are pretty much always in the top 5 or 7 and sometimes the top 3. The Dodgers and the Yankees are the only team consistently ahead of us. All other teams that beat us yearly on average are below us when you go by multi year. If you take a weighted average you can and should say the Sox are 3rd in payroll. In terms of payroll fire power.

 

Now, I think we can preemptively put them down to 4 because you have to assume NYM is going to outspend them now. But LA may be resetting next year because Bauer reinstated and screwed them. It could be between us and NY, unless another west coast team wants to go big.

 

I think Ohtani can be sold on coming to Boston. Find out who his best friend is and sign him. Maybe we can put together a really nice gift basket.

 

One main reason we have dropped from the top 5, is the massive increases by the Mets and Padres.

 

I'm not sure the new bar set by those two teams should be used to say henry has gone cheap.

 

He did go cheap, starting in 2019, but that is not something new. What's new is going 3 years being cheap.

 

[Hugh2]

Why didn't they just go over again this year and sign one year deals? Why not reset next year when more young guys are projected to be promoted from the minors?

 

Because why not reset after two? there could be a whole host of reasons why, some make more sense than others. To me the blunder was not resetting this past year.

 

But If I'm going to stay true to my Ohtani theory, you'd want to reset THIS year if you wanted to go big after him next year. Maybe they didn't like this years FA class and figured it made sense to reset now. GO big on Ohtani.

[Hugh2]

One main reason we have dropped from the top 5, is the massive increases by the Mets and Padres.

 

I'm not sure the new bar set by those two teams should be used to say henry has gone cheap.

 

He did go cheap, starting in 2019, but that is not something new. What's new is going 3 years being cheap.

 

 

Yes, but San Diego will be three years over next year. They will reset. I think it's safe to say the other New York team will not be. Maybe SD surpasses us long term maybe they do not but for now I'd say we are 4th in firepower.

 

The Sox could sign Ohtani if they wanted. It's all going to come down to that. He's marketable, he will bring in money, it's an investment beyond his on-field production, and he fills two huge needs on this team. The Sox have every reason and should go hard after Ohtani. I'll be disappointed if they don't.

 

I did think they would make one big FA deal this offseason. They did not. So my record is less than perfect.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but San Diego will be three years over next year. They will reset. I think it's safe to say the other New York team will not be. Maybe SD surpasses us long term maybe they do not but for now I'd say we are 4th in firepower.

 

The Sox could sign Ohtani if they wanted. It's all going to come down to that. He's marketable, he will bring in money, it's an investment beyond his on-field production, and he fills two huge needs on this team. The Sox have every reason and should go hard after Ohtani. I'll be disappointed if they don't.

 

I did think they would make one big FA deal this offseason. They did not. So my record is less than perfect.

 

Agree that we "could" sign him, if henry wanted to do so, but I doubt we do.

 

I just hope we find a way to add an ace (or two.) We need, at minimum, two solid #2's.

[mvp 78]

SPOTRAC has us 14th, but...

 

We have only $2.9M in "buried contracts."

We have just $5.6M in "retained."

 

For actual 26 man payroll, we are still 14th, but with $43M on the IL, we will move way up once Story, Duvall, paxton and Mondesi join the 26.

 

In overall salary, they have us at $178M.

$4M from #13 CHC

$6M from CWS & SFG

 

If we spend at the deadline, we could be #11, which is nearly top tier (top 1/3)

 

HAhahahahahahahahahahahahah

[mvp 78]

He committed to spending $650M starting with the Story signing. That is huge. That is way more than 2/3 of the teams. It is more than probably 24-25 teams.

 

YES!

 

How many players did he get rid of again?

 

Xander 11 @ 280M

Mookie 12 @ 365M

Nate 2 @ 34M

JD 1 @ 10 M

Vaz 3 @ 30M

Renfroe 1 @ 12M

 

Seems like he's committed to SLASHING money and not spending it?

[Bellhorn04]

If we spend like March 2022 to February 2013, again next winter and add the Devers contract, we will be top 3-4, again.

 

Ifs and buts = candy and nuts.

 

I do get your point, but the other side of the argument has a point too.

[moonslav59]

HAhahahahahahahahahahahahah

 

Laugh all you want, but please explain how #14 is "small market."

 

We spend about as much as the bottom 3 teams combined.

 

We spend more than any two of the bottom 6 teams combined.

 

We spend 50% more than any of the bottom 10 teams.

 

Argue mid tier, if you wish. Hahahahahaha.

[moonslav59]

Ifs and buts = candy and nuts.

 

I do get your point, but the other side of the argument has a point too.

 

There is no ifs, ands or buts about us committing $650M since March 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no ifs, ands or buts about us committing $650M since March 2022.

 

Can't complain about the Devers extension, that's for sure, IMHO.

 

But you're overplaying the $650 million, for the reasons already mentioned.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Forbes, the Red Sox had an operating profit of $71.6 million for 2022, and the current market value of the franchise is about $4.5 billion, which is #3 after the Yankees and Dodgers.

[notin]

We spent $650M since March 2022- just not on SP'ers. (I think, only $14M of that on Kluber and Paxton.)

 

We misplaced our priorities, again.

 

 

There is a conundrum with starting pitching in free agency.

 

Quality SP typically costs so much for too many years, and the only good years are very likely to be the early ones. Some teams apparently tolerate the idea of suffering through the albatross years at the end of these deals to get the potentially season-changing ones early on.

 

The problem is the albatross years at the end are all but guaranteed, while the early good years are much less likely. The Sox, for example, spent $376 mill to sign Price and extend Sale and got how many good years? Price is since expired and retired, but the last two years of Sale - which were never going to be elite - remain. His albatross years have been baked in since the 2018 World Series ended, and the best hope right now is he is more or a minor albatross, maybe a pudgy seagull.

 

But there also might be some reluctance to re-enter these ridiculously unproductive contracts. I mean, for the cost of Price and Sale, the Sox could have kept Betts. (Could have vs should have arguments not accepted but noted.)

 

Really right now the egregious non- offer isn’t oft-injured Eovaldi, the temperamental Wacha, or the thoroughly frustrating Perez. ERod is pitching like the one that got away, and his contract with Detroit is relatively small. It looked like a smart pass during his disappearing act in 2022, but he has found his way back and is mowing them down like a nuclear-powered John Deere…

[jad]

According to Forbes, the Red Sox had an operating profit of $71.6 million for 2022, and the current market value of the franchise is about $4.5 billion, which is #3 after the Yankees and Dodgers.

 

But just think of how the value of the team would have plummeted had they kept Mookie and Bogey!