A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[jad]

So after 22 games we're in last place and 7.5 games out of first, and yet the mood here is relatively upbeat.

 

Is it possible we're being conditioned to have lower expectations?

 

Anyone who as been a sox fan since the 50s doesn't need any further conditioning.

[notin]

A little context would help. Before yesterday they would have been 2nd place in every other division in the AL and the NL west. So half of baseball.

 

We are not even a month into the season and we are playing in the toughest division.

 

Tampa is NOT winning 139 games this year. They will come back down to earth. ONE team aside they’ve played all last place teams up until now. We’ve played a lot of first place teams and we are hovering at .500 and the starting pitching is starting to look better. We are 3rd in runs scored with help on the way.

 

The Red Sox may very well have a disappointing season, but damn….talk about throwing in the towel way too early.

 

Going to be a lot of Randy Quiads in here come August.

 

 

I also think a lot of white flags went up after getting swept by Pitt. That Baltimore-Pitt-Detroit stretch was supposed to give them a positive start, better than 5-7. Of course, those teams sit at a combined 35-26 (30-19 against the rest of MLB) and weren’t the pushovers everyone anticipated…

[Bellhorn04]

A little context would help. Before yesterday they would have been 2nd place in every other division in the AL and the NL west. So half of baseball.

 

We are not even a month into the season and we are playing in the toughest division.

 

Tampa is NOT winning 139 games this year. They will come back down to earth. ONE team aside they’ve played all last place teams up until now. We’ve played a lot of first place teams and we are hovering at .500 and the starting pitching is starting to look better. We are 3rd in runs scored with help on the way.

 

The Red Sox may very well have a disappointing season, but damn….talk about throwing in the towel way too early.

 

Going to be a lot of Randy Quiads in here come August.

 

I really don't see how the starting pitching is looking good.

 

Houck looks pretty good. The rest are all question marks.

 

Hopefully Bello does well today.

[Hugh2]

I really don't see how the starting pitching is looking good.

 

Houck looks pretty good. The rest are all question marks.

 

Hopefully Bello does well today.

 

Sale looks like Sale. Houck looks good. Whitlock has been bad good ok (I say ok because he made a one pitch mistake). Pivetta has been good. Crawford and wonkowski have been good.

 

Bello might be the most talented guy in the staff and Paxton is working his way back. And the bullpen is elite esq.

 

This early in the season one bad start or one bad relief outing can be the difference between a 10.00 era and a 3.00 era. And some of those guys have been pretty darn good besides one bad (often the first week) outing.

 

As I said earlier. How can you at least not be OPTIMISTIC about this team?

[Maxbialystock]

Sale looks like Sale. Houck looks good. Whitlock has been bad good ok (I say ok because he made a one pitch mistake). Pivetta has been good. Crawford and wonkowski have been good.

 

Bello might be the most talented guy in the staff and Paxton is working his way back. And the bullpen is elite esq.

 

This early in the season one bad start or one bad relief outing can be the difference between a 10.00 era and a 3.00 era. And some of those guys have been pretty darn good besides one bad (often the first week) outing.

 

As I said earlier. How can you at least not be OPTIMISTIC about this team?

 

While I genuinely enjoy disagreeing with you, I do think your optimism has merit. I too have hopes for the rotation, and the bullpen is already an asset. On paper the lineup looks terrible, but they score freaking runs and against good pitching too.

 

Most of all, as you say, they have played a tough schedule, are in far and away the toughest division, and are holding their own.

 

I voted for the Sox having a losing record this season and hope to be proven dead wrong.

[Hugh2]

While I genuinely enjoy disagreeing with you, I do think your optimism has merit. I too have hopes for the rotation, and the bullpen is already an asset. On paper the lineup looks terrible, but they score freaking runs and against good pitching too.

 

Most of all, as you say, they have played a tough schedule, are in far and away the toughest division, and are holding their own.

 

I voted for the Sox having a losing record this season and hope to be proven dead wrong.

 

You enjoy disagreeing with ME?!?!?!? Fair.

 

I pegged the Sox around 87 wins. Good, but not good enough and I’m sticking with that. They’re certainly not the most talented team in baseball or even the division, but I think they’re much better than some think.

 

If a lot breaks right for them, they could be a move at the deadline away from making a run. Not betting heavy money on that, but I remain optimistic.

[moonslav59]

So after 22 games we're in last place and 7.5 games out of first, and yet the mood here is relatively upbeat.

 

Is it possible we're being conditioned to have lower expectations?

 

That might be part of it.

 

Maybe waiting for Story, Duvall and Martin to return offers way more hope than last year's Sale, Paxton and Taylor did.

 

Maybe realizing the opponents we broke even with were really not the push-overs many felt they were, when we saw the schedule over the winter. Here are the records of the teams we have faced, minus our games with them:

 

(Note: we only have a losing record vs 2 of the 7 teams we have played)

 

14-3 TBR (4-0 v BOS)

12-7 PIT (3-0 v BOS)

 

14-5 MIL (1-1 v BOS)

12-5 BAL (1-2 v BOS)

10-8 MN (1-2 v BOS)

9-8 LAA (1-3 v BOS)

7-9 DET (0-3 v BOS)

 

Flip one DET loss to a win, and every team we have faced would be at .500 or better in all their non-Sox games.

 

We've been a pretty scrappy team that has fought from behind to win a few games, and I think that helps with the gut feelings many fans have about their team's chances.

 

We have some major weaknesses, but so do other teams ahead of us.

 

Rotation: I'm sticking with my belief we can and will be near the middle of the pack by season's end- maybe even top 15.

 

Middle IF: Our only real hope is Story and/or Mondesi. If Duvall comes back, it allows Kike to play SS or 2B, but I'm not so sure that is a good thing.

 

1B: This position has to get better, and there are some shifts we can make, if Casas does not fulfill his promise, this year: Turner to 1B and Yoshida to DH, when Duvall returns, of find some platoon like EValdez/Dalbec or Duran/Refsnyder.

 

The trade market may help in July, and we so appear to have some lux tax room to add salary, but I'm not sure we can wait that long, and we may be toast by then.

 

That being said, I'm still optimistic about this season.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sale looks like Sale. Houck looks good. Whitlock has been bad good ok (I say ok because he made a one pitch mistake). Pivetta has been good. Crawford and wonkowski have been good.

 

Bello might be the most talented guy in the staff and Paxton is working his way back. And the bullpen is elite esq.

 

This early in the season one bad start or one bad relief outing can be the difference between a 10.00 era and a 3.00 era. And some of those guys have been pretty darn good besides one bad (often the first week) outing.

 

As I said earlier. How can you at least not be OPTIMISTIC about this team?

 

Whitlock missed some time, last year and needed more rehab, before joining the rotation. He's had some bumps and blips, but he looks to have his stuff back, Some of those hits by the Brewers, yesterday were off some nasty pitches, where the batter nearly threw his bat at the pitch and got a hit.

 

I'm not worried about Whitlock as a pitcher- just his health and season IP limit.

 

Sale missed a lot of time. I did not expect him to come back to greatness, day one. I'm seeing good signs from him, of late.

 

Houck is doing better than I expected as a starter. I thought he'd be a great replacement for Whitlock in the pen. (Thanks to Wink, we haven't needed Houck in that role.)

 

Pivetta seems to be as steady as ever.

 

Bello, Kluber and Paxton remain the big question marks, but if those other 4 come through, we may be able to get by with just one of these guys giving us a 4.80 ERA. I still feel that one can give us 4.25, but I'm not so sure, anymore.

 

Having Jansen has cooled a lot of the hotheads from yesteryear.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the biggest question of all for this team is this: which AL East team do we think we can pass?

[Hugh2]

Maybe the biggest question of all for this team is this: which AL East team do we think we can pass?

 

Right now it looks like everyone is good. But a lot can change in a week or month. Guys can regress, key players can get injured.

 

It’s a long season and a lot can happen.

[moonslav59]

We all are concerned about Kluber, Chang, Arroyo and Casas. Some are concerned about more than those 4 slots, but imagine being a fan of other ALE teams. Sure, we'd be much happier with their records, but we'd have these concerns and questions with them, too:

 

BAL

.602 OPS from their #4 PA guy (Santender)

.665 & .668 from their #6 (Henderson) & #7 (Frazier)

.462 (Vavra), .544 (McKenna) and .556 (McCann) #10-#12's

Rotation: Irvin 10.66, GRod 6.91 and Kremer 6.16

That's 3 out of 5 SP'ers doing as badly as ours.

 

TOR

.602 Springer #3 in PAs

.642 Varsho #5

.566 Belt #9, .466 Jansen #10, .394 Biggio #11/.384 Espinal #12 (These last 2 combine for 78 PAs at 2B which would be #5 in PAs)

Rotation: Berrios 6.23 and Bassitt 5.40

Pen: Y Garcia leads the pen in IP and has a 7.20 ERA

 

NYY

10 of their 15 batters have an OPS at .711 or worse. The guy at .711 is Franchy!

8 of their top 14 batter by PAs (17+) are at ,672 or worse.

6 of those 14 are at .591 or worse.

One of their 4-5 good hitters is on the IL (Stanton.)

3 of their best 5 hitters are 33 or older (Stanton, LeMahieu & Rizzo.)

1 of their top 5 hitters has a .730 OPS from 2020-2022 (Torres.)

Positional OPS:

.582 C

.608 3B

.613 LF

.631 RF

.659 SS

The bottom of their order starts at the #5 slot:

.639 #5

.548 #6

.411 #7

.770 #8

.521 #9

 

Rotation: Schmidt 8.79, Brito 5.40, German 4.50

Pen: Holmes is not the 2022 Holmes (4.15 ERA/1.385 WHIP) but the rest has been solid.

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe the biggest question of all for this team is this: which AL East team do we think we can pass?

 

I know we can pass BAL & TOR.

[moonslav59]

Right now it looks like everyone is good. But a lot can change in a week or month. Guys can regress, key players can get injured.

 

It’s a long season and a lot can happen.

 

Indeed, and to other ALE teams, too.

[Maxbialystock]

You enjoy disagreeing with ME?!?!?!? Fair.

 

I pegged the Sox around 87 wins. Good, but not good enough and I’m sticking with that. They’re certainly not the most talented team in baseball or even the division, but I think they’re much better than some think.

 

If a lot breaks right for them, they could be a move at the deadline away from making a run. Not betting heavy money on that, but I remain optimistic.

 

It's a blog site. What's the point of always agreeing?

 

I picked the Sox to be below .500 this season and now have real hope I was wrong.

[moonslav59]

It's a blog site. What's the point of always agreeing?

 

I picked the Sox to be below .500 this season and now have real hope I was wrong.

 

You knew we'd be good. You were just hedging against another disappointing season.

 

[Larry Cook]

I know we can pass BAL & TOR.

 

Do you mean “in theory”?

[moonslav59]

Do you mean “in theory”?

 

In theory, we can pass 'em all. I know we can pass BAL and TOR and think we will.

[Nick]

Offensively my concern is in LF and 1B.

 

They are hitting positions. Ws are not getting the offensive production out of those two spots.

 

If they hit, then Chang at SS and Wong behind the plate becomes irrelevant offensively.

[Nick]

I just want to thank Cora for bringing Ort. The guy has no mental acuity.

 

4 straight balls, ignores the base runner, then a wild pitch.

 

We deserve to lose. I hope Cora enjoyed watching the game slip away.

[Maxbialystock]

I just want to thank Cora for bringing Ort. The guy has no mental acuity.

 

4 straight balls, ignores the base runner, then a wild pitch.

 

We deserve to lose. I hope Cora enjoyed watching the game slip away.

 

Sadly, that didn't happen, so don't watch the horrible 8th in which the Sox scored about a thousand runs, thereby making Ort's horrible appearance irrelevant.

 

The guy to blame is Ort, not Cora. The guys to applaud for the big rally are the guys who did it. Cora just watched.

 

I do think Cora's doing a good job this season.

[Maxbialystock]

Offensively my concern is in LF and 1B.

 

They are hitting positions. Ws are not getting the offensive production out of those two spots.

 

If they hit, then Chang at SS and Wong behind the plate becomes irrelevant offensively.

 

Meh. Yoshida seems to be coming around. Besides, while I agree 1b and LF should hit, the point has been that somebody seems to be hitting in each game except that terrible series at the Trop--and even in that one the Sox got some runs.

Edited April 23, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

Sadly, that didn't happen, so don't watch the horrible 8th in which the Sox scored about a thousand runs, thereby making Ort's horrible appearance irrelevant.

 

The guy to blame is Ort, not Cora. The guys to applaud for the big rally are the guys who did it. Cora just watched.

 

I do think Cora's doing a good job this season.

 

I blame Cora. There’s no rule stating Ort has to pitch. MLB has no participation rules.

 

I blame Bloom for keeping Ort, and have through multiple DFAs. Clearly Bloom is not going to be swayed by Ort’s inability to prevent the opposition from scoring. So it’s time for Cora - unless he’s complicit - to make a stand and never let Ort pitch except in blowouts…

[Hugh2]

I blame Cora. There’s no rule stating Ort has to pitch. MLB has no participation rules.

 

I blame Bloom for keeping Ort, and have through multiple DFAs. Clearly Bloom is not going to be swayed by Ort’s inability to prevent the opposition from scoring. So it’s time for Cora - unless he’s complicit - to make a stand and never let Ort pitch except in blowouts…

 

You can’t pitch Winck everyday. It’s easy to judge Cora for the decisions he makes when we don’t have to worry about rotating guys, giving them rest, and keeping them healthy for 162 games.

 

Martin is coming back, that should push out the worse performer in the bullpen. Which has generally been pretty good. It might even get better.

[moonslav59]

Cora did pitch Orr in a blowout. What’s the problem?

 

LOL

[Larry Cook]

In theory, we can pass 'em all. I know we can pass BAL and TOR and think we will.

 

Dude, 3 very important opportunities to prove that coming up!!! Ps: kluber is serving up more meatballs than the Olive Garden!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In theory, we can pass 'em all. I know we can pass BAL and TOR and think we will.

 

You didn't mention the Yanks -- who Toronto just beat in a New York series. The pinstripes start five guys batting .224 or lower. The Jays have five hitting .295 or higher.

 

And anyone stuck on "Small Sample Size" must also think the Rays aren't for real, either...

[Hugh2]

You didn't mention the Yanks -- who Toronto just beat in a New York series. The pinstripes start five guys batting .224 or lower. The Jays have five hitting .295 or higher.

 

And anyone stuck on "Small Sample Size" must also think the Rays aren't for real, either...

 

I think the Rays are a good team.

 

I didn't think they would go 162-0 and I also don't think they will go 140-22

 

At a certain point, they will stop playing all last-place teams. Starting today actually. Lets see how the next 3-4 weeks go. This is baseball, and it's a long season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the Rays are a good team.

 

I didn't think they would go 162-0 and I also don't think they will go 140-22

 

At a certain point, they will stop playing all last-place teams. Starting today actually. Lets see how the next 3-4 weeks go. This is baseball, and it's a long season.

 

Agreed, and I've been saying the same regarding their soft sked so far. But momentum and confidence from a great start are factors that can't be measured.

 

It may be too early to call the Red Sox a good team, but we know they're competitive -- and better with Chang and Duran playing regular roles. The development of guys like that -- including Wink in the bullpen -- will key the season more than hoping for injured players to return and be instant contributing stars again.

[Bellhorn04]

The AL Beast has risen.

[Bellhorn04]

Duran looks like a completely different guy. The dude is jacked.