A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

Can't complain about the Devers extension, that's for sure, IMHO.

 

But you're overplaying the $650 million, for the reasons already mentioned.

 

No you can’t complain about the Devers signing, but what are you putting around him? A bunch of stopgaps. Devers is in the prime of his career, and if you are not going to go for it anytime soon your just wasting away some of those prime years waiting, and hoping that all these high rated prospects/suspects turn out as good as the hype that may not EVER happen. That’s what some are banking on, and they may end up bankrupt.

[Bellhorn04]

No you can’t complain about the Devers signing, but what are you putting around him? A bunch of stopgaps. Devers is in the prime of his career, and if you are not going to go for it anytime soon your just wasting away some of those prime years waiting, and hoping that all these high rated prospects/suspects turn out as good as the hype that may not EVER happen. That’s what some are banking on, and they may end up bankrupt.

 

They definitely seem to be playing the "wait till next year" game.

[moonslav59]

Can't complain about the Devers extension, that's for sure, IMHO.

 

But you're overplaying the $650 million, for the reasons already mentioned.

 

We also signed more 2 year deals than one.

 

New signings/Per season 2024:

29 Devers

19 Yoshida

16 Jansen

11 Turner

10 Martin

 

That's not chump change.

 

New For 2023:

 

20 Story (March '22)

18 Devers

16 Jansen

16 Yoshida

10 Kike

10 Kluber

8 Turner

8 Martin

7 Duvall

4 Paxton

 

I ask, how many teams created new spending more than this? 4-7?

 

This is NOT small market spending.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

There is a conundrum with starting pitching in free agency.

 

Quality SP typically costs so much for too many years, and the only good years are very likely to be the early ones. Some teams apparently tolerate the idea of suffering through the albatross years at the end of these deals to get the potentially season-changing ones early on.

 

The problem is the albatross years at the end are all but guaranteed, while the early good years are much less likely. The Sox, for example, spent $376 mill to sign Price and extend Sale and got how many good years? Price is since expired and retired, but the last two years of Sale - which were never going to be elite - remain. His albatross years have been baked in since the 2018 World Series ended, and the best hope right now is he is more or a minor albatross, maybe a pudgy seagull.

 

But there also might be some reluctance to re-enter these ridiculously unproductive contracts. I mean, for the cost of Price and Sale, the Sox could have kept Betts. (Could have vs should have arguments not accepted but noted.)

 

Really right now the egregious non- offer isn’t oft-injured Eovaldi, the temperamental Wacha, or the thoroughly frustrating Perez. ERod is pitching like the one that got away, and his contract with Detroit is relatively small. It looked like a smart pass during his disappearing act in 2022, but he has found his way back and is mowing them down like a nuclear-powered John Deere…

 

The other option was a trade like Castillo's. That's not too appealing, either, but at some point, like with Price and sale, we have to bite the bullet.

[Hugh2]

How many players did he get rid of again?

 

Xander 11 @ 280M

Mookie 12 @ 365M

Nate 2 @ 34M

JD 1 @ 10 M

Vaz 3 @ 30M

Renfroe 1 @ 12M

 

Seems like he's committed to SLASHING money and not spending it?

 

That's a misleading list. Those moves stretch out over 4 years and include trades and free agency. Have they not spent money elsewhere???

 

The argument comes down to HOW they spend their money, not whether or not they do.

[Maxbialystock]

No you can’t complain about the Devers signing, but what are you putting around him? A bunch of stopgaps. Devers is in the prime of his career, and if you are not going to go for it anytime soon your just wasting away some of those prime years waiting, and hoping that all these high rated prospects/suspects turn out as good as the hype that may not EVER happen. That’s what some are banking on, and they may end up bankrupt.

 

Really?

 

My view is that the very best team in MLB--and forget their incredible won-lost record and just remember their superb execution in all aspects of the game when the Sox played them at the Trop--has the third lowest team salaries.

 

Meanwhile, big spenders like the Yankees (13-10), Padres (12-12), Phillies (11-12), Dodgers (12-11) , and Angels (11-12) ain't looking so smart.

 

Yes, yes, it's early in the season. But it's not too early for Talksoxers like you to gripe about the worst VP/GM in the entire history of MLB.

[Old Red]

Really?

 

My view is that the very best team in MLB--and forget their incredible won-lost record and just remember their superb execution in all aspects of the game when the Sox played them at the Trop--has the third lowest team salaries.

 

Meanwhile, big spenders like the Yankees (13-10), Padres (12-12), Phillies (11-12), Dodgers (12-11) , and Angels (11-12) ain't looking so smart.

 

Yes, yes, it's early in the season. But it's not too early for Talksoxers like you to gripe about the worst VP/GM in the entire history of MLB.

 

I’m still trying to figure out who the Red Sox no names are.

[Hugh2]

One thing about the offseason is......what pitcher did they leave on the table that's lighting the world on fire and would look like a #1 leader?

[moonslav59]

One thing about the offseason is......what pitcher did they leave on the table that's lighting the world on fire and would look like a #1 leader?

 

Not many of the ones that got the most money are doing great.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We also signed more 2 year deals than one.

 

New signings/Per season 2024:

29 Devers

19 Yoshida

16 Jansen

11 Turner

10 Martin

 

That's not chump change.

 

New For 2023:

 

20 Story (March '22)

18 Devers

16 Jansen

16 Yoshida

10 Kike

10 Kluber

8 Turner

8 Martin

7 Duvall

4 Paxton

 

I ask, how many teams created new spending more than this? 4-7?

 

This is NOT small market spending.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the lists. Which players -- if any -- have been recruited to be part of the core of the next sustained contenders? Yoshida, unproven in the majors, and Story, damaged goods?

 

I realize some pre-arbs may be also be core down the road -- like maybe Verdugo or Dombrowski draft picks Casas and Duran -- but what key guys were acquired and signed... Whitlock?

 

Seriously, all that spending shows that this front office isn't cheap... but are they committed? Are they really investing in the future? Or just trying to field a team? Hopefully, they think it's both, and aren't inept...

[moonslav59]

They definitely seem to be playing the "wait till next year" game.

 

Devers is just now entering prime. In theory, it makes sense adding players around him should have just begun and continue through the next 2-4 seasons.

 

We spent a lot, this winter. Next winter's spending budget will tell me a lot.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the lists. Which players -- if any -- have been recruited to be part of the core of the next sustained contenders? Yoshida, unproven in the majors, and Story, damaged goods?

 

I realize some pre-arbs may be also be core down the road -- like maybe Verdugo or Dombrowski draft picks Casas and Duran -- but what key guys were acquired and signed... Whitlock?

 

Seriously, all that spending shows that this front office isn't cheap... but are they committed? Are they really investing in the future? Or just trying to field a team? Hopefully, they think it's both, and aren't inept...

 

Signing short term players does not necessarily mean there is no commitment to 2024 and beyond, but I get your point.

 

The Story signing was an attempt at longer term stability, but has been the opposite, so far.

 

The Devers & Yoshida signings and the Whitlock extensions along with Story is a pretty short list- agreed.

[mvp 78]

According to Forbes, the Red Sox had an operating profit of $71.6 million for 2022, and the current market value of the franchise is about $4.5 billion, which is #3 after the Yankees and Dodgers.

 

And the Operating Profit excludes the real estate $$$ from the surrounding area as well as ownership of NESN $$$.

[mvp 78]

Laugh all you want, but please explain how #14 is "small market."

 

We spend about as much as the bottom 3 teams combined.

 

We spend more than any two of the bottom 6 teams combined.

 

We spend 50% more than any of the bottom 10 teams.

 

Argue mid tier, if you wish. Hahahahahaha.

 

They are mid tier. 14th even! Spending more than the bottom s*** tier of MLB is nothing to be proud of considering how some of those teams are run.

[mvp 78]

That's a misleading list. Those moves stretch out over 4 years and include trades and free agency. Have they not spent money elsewhere???

 

The argument comes down to HOW they spend their money, not whether or not they do.

 

It is just as misleading as moon's "they've spent $650M since March 2022."

[mvp 78]

Because why not reset after two? there could be a whole host of reasons why, some make more sense than others. To me the blunder was not resetting this past year.

 

But If I'm going to stay true to my Ohtani theory, you'd want to reset THIS year if you wanted to go big after him next year. Maybe they didn't like this years FA class and figured it made sense to reset now. GO big on Ohtani.

 

For sure, they were DUMB for not resetting last year. All they had to do was trade JD for a low A prospect at the deadline and the would have reset. Big time fail on FO for that.

[Hugh2]

It is just as misleading as moon's "they've spent $650M since March 2022."

 

Yeah but you also can't take that away either. You can't argue what they've spent. I understand what you're saying but on top of the 650 the Sox have a long history of being top spenders.

 

The argument is how they spend their money. No one can say "they don't spend money" because that's simply not true. Sox are big spenders.

[mvp 78]

Yeah but you also can't take that away either. You can't argue what they've spent. I understand what you're saying but on top of the 650 the Sox have a long history of being top spenders.

 

The argument is how they spend their money. No one can say "they don't spend money" because that's simply not true. Sox are big spenders.

 

No, they aren't. They are 14th. That's middle of the road. Average! By definition that's not a big spender.

[moonslav59]

They are mid tier. 14th even! Spending more than the bottom s*** tier of MLB is nothing to be proud of considering how some of those teams are run.

 

My point was directed at those who called us a small market team.

 

My other point was about recent spending, which matters, too. We have started spending more since the Story signing. The fact that we had gotten so far behind, beforehand, does not change that fact, either.

 

Wanting to re-set makes some sense, so that alone keeps us from being a top ___ spending team.

[Hugh2]

No, they aren't. They are 14th. That's middle of the road. Average! By definition that's not a big spender.

 

That's totally unfair after just complaining about Moon being misleading. It's a reset year for them, if we want to have an honest conversation about this, it doesn't start by using a one year sample size in a reset year.

 

They were 6th last year. 6th the year before that, and 4th the year before that. Then they were 1st. So whats the 5 year average? You strike me as one of the more intelligent posters in here. Do you honestly believe they're not going to jump back into the top 5-7 next year?

[mvp 78]

My point was directed at those who called us a small market team.

 

My other point was about recent spending, which matters, too. We have started spending more since the Story signing. The fact that we had gotten so far behind, beforehand, does not change that fact, either.

 

Wanting to re-set makes some sense, so that alone keeps us from being a top ___ spending team.

 

Check my math please.

 

2020 - reset!

2021 - under

2022 - over on accident

2023 - reset!

 

There's no way that the payroll of the last 4 year suggests the Sox are in the upper tier. It seems they are middle of the pack with the Twins, Rockies, Cardinals and Mariners of the world right now. These teams will get one big name contract, appease the fans and then go on about their business for better or worse.

 

The question will be, how does Henry act when Sale's money is freed up after 2024, WHICH IS TWO MORE YEARS AWAY. ARE WE REALLY AT THE POINT OF THIS BEING A BRIDGE YEAR AND NEXT YEAR BEING ONE TOO?!??!

[mvp 78]

That's totally unfair after just complaining about Moon being misleading. It's a reset year for them, if we want to have an honest conversation about this, it doesn't start by using a one year sample size in a reset year.

 

They were 6th last year. 6th the year before that, and 4th the year before that. Then they were 1st. So whats the 5 year average? You strike me as one of the more intelligent posters in here. Do you honestly believe they're not going to jump back into the top 5-7 next year?

 

A reset year? How many of those do they need? Are they collecting under the CBT years like pokémon?

[Hugh2]

I don't define "top spenders" based on one year soley, but rather what they've done on the long term. Sox JUST went over the luxury tax and have stated again and again that they will continue to do so in the future. Resetting is natural, its' to be expected. If the Sox continue to slash payroll next year then you conspiracy theorists will be proven right. But I'd be willing to wager the Sox go above the luxury tax again next year.

[Hugh2]

A reset year? How many of those do they need? Are they collecting under the CBT years like pokémon?

 

You know why, it's not about how many but how often.

[Hugh2]

Sox are under cap by $16 million in a reset year.

 

Yeah....that's not what small market teams do.

[mvp 78]

No, I 1,000,000%$ believe they will NOT be in the top 5% in payroll next season.

 

I have no faith in John Henry. I am biased against him. I have been that way for a long time, but have heard lots of negative things about him running this franchise going back to last season.

 

This is a Tom Werner stan account. Werner wants to spend money, Henry doesn't. That is what I've heard. There's an ongoing push and pull in ownership between spending and not spending. Right now, we are in a not spending phase, which seems very clear to me. The FA moves the current Sox have made can be typified as RINKY DINK.

[mvp 78]

Sox are under cap by $16 million in a reset year.

 

Yeah....that's not what small market teams do.

 

Who said "small market?"

[Bellhorn04]

I don't define "top spenders" based on one year soley, but rather what they've done on the long term. Sox JUST went over the luxury tax and have stated again and again that they will continue to do so in the future. Resetting is natural, its' to be expected. If the Sox continue to slash payroll next year then you conspiracy theorists will be proven right. But I'd be willing to wager the Sox go above the luxury tax again next year.

 

The Dodgers cut payroll this year but not enough to re-set.

 

The Mets can't re-set next year even if they wanted to.

 

The Yankees and others may be in that position too.

 

We've entered a new phase where the real big spenders have stopped being hung up on re-setting.

[Bellhorn04]

Who said "small market?"

 

I don't think anyone actually said that.

[mvp 78]

I don't define "top spenders" based on one year soley, but rather what they've done on the long term. Sox JUST went over the luxury tax and have stated again and again that they will continue to do so in the future. Resetting is natural, its' to be expected. If the Sox continue to slash payroll next year then you conspiracy theorists will be proven right. But I'd be willing to wager the Sox go above the luxury tax again next year.

 

They went over by accident!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!