A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Duran looks like a completely different guy. The dude is jacked.

 

Best part is that he's not trying to jack. The muscles let his liners carry, and since sprinting is all upper body, he's thinking three on every gapper. Duran could actually be faster this year, especially on the pizza boxes.

[Hugh2]

Agreed, and I've been saying the same regarding their soft sked so far. But momentum and confidence from a great start are factors that can't be measured.

 

It may be too early to call the Red Sox a good team, but we know they're competitive -- and better with Chang and Duran playing regular roles. The development of guys like that -- including Wink in the bullpen -- will key the season more than hoping for injured players to return and be instant contributing stars again.

 

Guys like Chang and Duran are only up because they needed that depth. Same thing with Winck and Crawford.

 

But, the way they are all playing, they need to stay on this team.

[Hugh2]

Duran becomes a completely different player now if he can hit enough to get on base.

[Bellhorn04]

Duran has obviously been putting in the work. His revival could be a major bonus for the 2023 team.

[mvp 78]

Offensively my concern is in LF and 1B.

 

They are hitting positions. Ws are not getting the offensive production out of those two spots.

 

If they hit, then Chang at SS and Wong behind the plate becomes irrelevant offensively.

 

Masa has 15 RBI in 17 Games. His 729 OPS is underwhelming right now, but the last 5 games have been a bit of a turning point for how he has been approaching his at bats. 10.5% BB, 11.8% K leads me to believe that he's not overwhelmed at the plate, just making bad decisions.

[mvp 78]

Duran has obviously been putting in the work. His revival could be a major bonus for the 2023 team.

 

I agree. His two question marks were making contact at the MLB level and defense. If he can make good contact, that just leaves figuring out a defensive approach that gets him to a moderately below average level. That should be doable. He doesn't even need to be a starter. If he can be a guy that you can just platoon or rotate in, that's big. Most of us had written him off entirely.

[moonslav59]

Some cherry-picked sample sizes:

 

1.019 Turner (last 54 PAs)

.997 Verdugo (last 45 PAs)

.994 Duran (28 PAs- season)

.924 Kike (last 50)

.899 Devers (all year 97 PAs)

.874 Refsnyder (last 19)

.869 McGuire (last 28)

.840 Chang (last 26)

.804 Yoshida (last 48)

.724 Wong (last 25)

 

.600 Casas (last 26, but .497 in first 27 PAs)

.519 Arroyo (last 41, but .297 in previous 15 PAs)

[mvp 78]

Stick it out with Casas. DFArroyo.

[Old Red]

Masa has 15 RBI in 17 Games. His 729 OPS is underwhelming right now, but the last 5 games have been a bit of a turning point for how he has been approaching his at bats. 10.5% BB, 11.8% K leads me to believe that he's not overwhelmed at the plate, just making bad decisions.

 

While his 15 RBI in 17 games looks a lot better than it actually is with 6 yesterday the good old eye test has shown you for the most part that Yoshida has hit ping pong balls to the IF more than anything else. Let’s see what happens next after his home run derby yesterday.

[moonslav59]

Stick it out with Casas. DFArroyo.

 

Chang has really moved down the Next DFA List.

 

I'd give Arroyo a little more time.

 

If he was a great defender, maybe...

 

[mvp 78]

While his 15 RBI in 17 games looks a lot better than it actually is with 6 yesterday the good old eye test has shown you for the most part that Yoshida has hit ping pong balls to the IF more than anything else. Let’s see what happens next after his home run derby yesterday.

 

Ok, ignoring his 6 RBI yesterday he was still on pace for an 85 RBI season over 150 Games. Our biggest complaints last year were that Xander and JD weren't getting RBI. Both of those guys were under 80 RBI last season.

[mvp 78]

Chang has really moved down the Next DFA List.

 

I'd give Arroyo a little more time.

 

If he was a great defender, maybe...

 

 

Chang plays defense and hits bombs. They also don't have ANYONE ELSE that can play SS. They are stuck with him. I think they can fake it at 2B for a while with the some of the people they have in the org.

[Nick]

I posted before his 2 HR. I have Yoshida in my core group. We have him for 5 years at $180M. No way we give up on him.

 

I was merely pointing out we were not getting O production out of traditional hitting positions. We are all on the same page.

 

I like Tapia but the emergence of Duran may phase him out with now 4 left handed hitting OF.

 

I have always been a fan of Duran but he had to get on base.

 

I'd be happy for him to join the core group going foward. You can't teach speed.

[moonslav59]

Chang plays defense and hits bombs. They also don't have ANYONE ELSE that can play SS. They are stuck with him. I think they can fake it at 2B for a while with the some of the people they have in the org.

 

I agree on Chang being above Arroyo, and I think Changs move on the to be DFA's list was more about Kike sucking at SS than Arroyo sucking at the plate.

 

I doubt Chang can maintain that .840 OPS over his last 26 PAs, but that .000 OPS over his first 12 PAs was the main reason he was suggested as a possible DFA guy.

[Hugh2]

Ok, ignoring his 6 RBI yesterday he was still on pace for an 85 RBI season over 150 Games. Our biggest complaints last year were that Xander and JD weren't getting RBI. Both of those guys were under 80 RBI last season.

 

RBIs were the most important thing in the world when a Hunter was out there.

[Hugh2]

Chang plays defense and hits bombs. They also don't have ANYONE ELSE that can play SS. They are stuck with him. I think they can fake it at 2B for a while with the some of the people they have in the org.

 

I’m fine with Chang starting at 1st and Kike starting at 2nD. Sure Duran isn’t great in CF but it makes the infield defense good and his bat has been a huge plus so far.

 

At this point, I think I’d take Chang over Arroyo

[Nick]

Sorry, this is a response to Old Red on Yoshida

 

I agree. He simply has not made hard contacts we were promised. I tend to be optimistic but he has to show it on the field.

 

Our expectation is higher for a player signed to $90M for 5 years. It's more of an indictment on Bloom than on Yoshida.

[Nick]

Chang plays solid D at short. I am more concerned about our starting pitching, 1B and Arroyo's inability to 'seize' the moment when given the chance.

[moonslav59]

I posted before his 2 HR. I have Yoshida in my core group. We have him for 5 years at $180M. No way we give up on him.

 

I was merely pointing out we were not getting O production out of traditional hitting positions. We are all on the same page.

 

I like Tapia but the emergence of Duran may phase him out with now 4 left handed hitting OF.

 

I have always been a fan of Duran but he had to get on base.

 

I'd be happy for him to join the core group going foward. You can't teach speed.

 

I'm still worries about Duran's defense in CF. If we could stick him in LF on a platoon, I'd feel better.

 

With Chang doing well, we can use Kike in CF, more often, but with Arroyo digging a deeper and deeper grave for himself, we may end up with Kike back in the IF, again.

 

Think of what this team would look like with a healthy Story, Duvall and Mondesi. I'm not sure we'd DFA Arroyo for the oft-injured Mondesi. We'd probably send Chang to AAA, but we'd have a pretty solid everyday 13, but we'd have to send Refsnyder, Duran or someone to AAA:

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Devers 3B

3. Turner DH/1B

4. Duvall CF

5. Yoshida LF/DH

6. Story SS

7. Kike 2B/CF

8. Casas 1B, Duran LF/CF, Refsnyder LF/CF, Arroyo 2B, Mondesi SS/2B, Chang SS (only 4 of these 6 guys can stay)

9. McGuire/Wong C

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I agree on Chang being above Arroyo, and I think Changs move on the to be DFA's list was more about Kike sucking at SS than Arroyo sucking at the plate.

 

I doubt Chang can maintain that .840 OPS over his last 26 PAs, but that .000 OPS over his first 12 PAs was the main reason he was suggested as a possible DFA guy.

 

The way the Red Sox are producing runs from all over the line-up, they shouldn't be concerned with Chang's offense. They need the guy to stay at shortstop consistently -- for who knows how long. There's no reason to believe that anyone currently injured will have their legs or arms miraculously heal and play better D than a healthy Chang. Shortstop is too important a position, especially on a subpar defense like Boston's.

 

Btw, Kike looks way more comfortable at second base... you know, the spot they acquired him to play where Cora called him the best in the majors.

 

p.s. there's no such thing as SSS when it comes to playing defense -- you either have it or you don't

[moonslav59]

Chang plays solid D at short. I am more concerned about our starting pitching, 1B and Arroyo's inability to 'seize' the moment when given the chance.

 

Agree. I've been talking about 1B for a while. We have not done well at 1B since Bobby Dee's hot streak back in 2021.

[moonslav59]

Sorry, this is a response to Old Red on Yoshida

 

I agree. He simply has not made hard contacts we were promised. I tend to be optimistic but he has to show it on the field.

 

Our expectation is higher for a player signed to $90M for 5 years. It's more of an indictment on Bloom than on Yoshida.

 

It's very early, and Yoshida is showing signs of making the adjustment to MLB, recently.

 

It's also a major culture shock.

 

To me, I want an OBP over .380 more than a SLG over .400.

[mvp 78]

I posted before his 2 HR. I have Yoshida in my core group. We have him for 5 years at $180M. No way we give up on him.

 

I was merely pointing out we were not getting O production out of traditional hitting positions. We are all on the same page.

 

I like Tapia but the emergence of Duran may phase him out with now 4 left handed hitting OF.

 

I have always been a fan of Duran but he had to get on base.

 

I'd be happy for him to join the core group going foward. You can't teach speed.

 

With Duran, I am still wary of a 32% K rate and his 563 BABIP. He's going to come back down to earth at some point. Does he end up hitting 275 or 225? Will the BB rate still be about 10%?

[moonslav59]

The way the Red Sox are producing runs from all over the line-up, they shouldn't be concerned with Chang's offense. They need the guy to stay at shortstop consistently -- for who knows how long. There's no reason to believe that anyone currently injured will have their legs or arms miraculously heal and play better D than a healthy Chang. Shortstop is too important a position, especially on a subpar defense like Boston's.

 

Btw, Kike looks way more comfortable at second base... you know, the spot they acquired him to play where Cora called him the best in the majors.

 

p.s. there's no such thing as SSS when it comes to playing defense -- you either have it or you don't

 

Singing to the choir on SS defense.

 

It looks like a Duran-Arroyo platoon is the way to go- with Kike bouncing between 2B and CF to accommodate.

[mvp 78]

RBIs were the most important thing in the world when a Hunter was out there.

 

I seem to remember this too!

[mvp 78]

Sorry, this is a response to Old Red on Yoshida

 

I agree. He simply has not made hard contacts we were promised. I tend to be optimistic but he has to show it on the field.

 

Our expectation is higher for a player signed to $90M for 5 years. It's more of an indictment on Bloom than on Yoshida.

 

His hard contact is about MLB average per Statcast. His groundball rate was just too high. Maybe there are more artificial surfaces where he played before? Maybe he is being pitched to differently? He is showing in a small sample that his approach has changed. We have to see how this plays out over a whole season rather than a few weeks.

[mvp 78]

I'm still worries about Duran's defense in CF. If we could stick him in LF on a platoon, I'd feel better.

 

To me, it depends on who is playing in the other positions. Verdugo has had a STRONG season in RF (1 DRS, 2 OAA, 9 UZR/150). If Verdugo is sitting, you are almost forced to play Duran in CF because of how bad his arm is.

[Hugh2]

His hard contact is about MLB average per Statcast. His groundball rate was just too high. Maybe there are more artificial surfaces where he played before? Maybe he is being pitched to differently? He is showing in a small sample that his approach has changed. We have to see how this plays out over a whole season rather than a few weeks.

 

One thing I've noticed over the years, and this applies to more than just sports. Is it takes people a LOT longer to like someone they've decided in their mind is bad, or not good enough etc etc. than it does to take someone to dislike someone they've decided was good.

 

The people who have made up their minds about Yoshida will probably need two back-to-back MVP seasons for them to say "You know what.....it was a good signing" but even then they won't ever go full in wrong they will say something like "yeah well, a more competent GM would have signed him for less money" conversely if someone's favorite player turns out to be serial child murderer rapist then some will exit ship but others would cling to any piece of information out there if it said other wise...even if it was from Myunclesfriendatthegymtoldmesoitcan'tbefake.com

 

It's amazing how the human mind works.

[mvp 78]

Yikes... Well, my rule has always been not to get too worked up until Memorial Day. Even if I'm saying DFArroyo, I think a guy like him has another month to pull out of it. Overall, I want to see what the Sox look like at the end of May before I freak out either way. Two months should also be a good trial period for Masa to work out a new approach and get over some of the bumps and bruises he'll have early on. The numbers may not be great this first year, but I think there should be some really solid stretches.

 

And if you have to rain on the parade after 2 HR's in one inning, I don't know what to say.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing I've noticed over the years, and this applies to more than just sports. Is it takes people a LOT longer to like someone they've decided in their mind is bad, or not good enough etc etc. than it does to take someone to dislike someone they've decided was good.

 

The people who have made up their minds about Yoshida will probably need two back-to-back MVP seasons for them to say "You know what.....it was a good signing" but even then they won't ever go full in wrong they will say something like "yeah well, a more competent GM would have signed him for less money" conversely if someone's favorite player turns out to be serial child murderer rapist then some will exit ship but others would cling to any piece of information out there if it said other wise...even if it was from Myunclesfriendatthegymtoldmesoitcan'tbefake.com

 

It's amazing how the human mind works.

 

Yes, Confirmation Bias is a real thing.