A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

They're not hiding, they're already used to the cold.

 

One time when my wife was upset with herself, she proclaimed “I must be the worst wife ever.”

 

I reassured her by saying. “No, you’re not. That would be the wife of the guy that invented ice-fishing.”

 

Somehow that cheered her up and still does to this day…

[Hugh2]

Duvall broke his wrist. Its a tough injury to recover from quickly. If he does not need surgery, cast for 6-8 weeks then rehab. My bet is it'll be a 10-12 week injury for recovery, but it might take til the very end of the season to see him back to his peak performance

 

Just in time to help SPOIL the Yankees playoff ambitions.

[moonslav59]

We are 5-5 after 2 cycles of our patchwork rotation.

 

Here are our SP'er numbers (ERA/WHIP)

 

0.90/1.100 Pivetta (5.10 FIP)

4.50/1.100 Houck (5.10)

6.48/1.680 Kluber (8.44)

8.00/1.667 Crawford (5.73) 12K: 2 BB/ 3 HRs in 9IP

11.25/2.00 Sale (8.90) 4 HRs in 8 IP

 

The pen has been a strength, so far:

 

0.00/1.667 Jansen (2.73)

1.00/0.667 Winck (1.95) 9 IP is 3rd on team (8K:1BB)

1.35/1.350 Kelly (4.60)

1.50/1.330 Martin (5.73)

1.80/1.600 Schreiber (3.40)

 

6.00/1.667 Bleier (2.40)

6.00/1.333 Ort (1.40) No BBs in 6 IP!

9.00/1.800 Brasier (5.40)

 

I still feel, if we can lessen the IP by our bottom 3 pen guys and replace Crawford in the rotation with a successful Whitlock, our staff can be an overall plus.

[moonslav59]

.455 4 14 in 37 PAs Duvall

.197 11 43 in 351 PAs The rest of the team

[Old Red]

It’s only 10 games into the season, but with Duvall going down it’s apparent to me the Red Sox need help. The question is if Bloom is going to do anything this this year, or sit on his hands like he did last year for a couple of months. Any combination of Yang, Tapia, The Ref Man, Bobby D, Duran, and KIKE i don’t see cutting it to be somewhat productive. Things wasn’t good up the middle to begin with, but at least Duvall was mashing.

[notin]

It’s only 10 games into the season, but with Duvall going down it’s apparent to me the Red Sox need help. The question is if Bloom is going to do anything this this year, or sit on his hands like he did last year for a couple of months. Any combination of Yang, Tapia, The Ref Man, Bobby D, Duran, and KIKE i don’t see cutting it to be somewhat productive. Things wasn’t good up the middle to begin with, but at least Duvall was mashing.

 

It’s tough to make any trades right now, since no one is selling yet. So you have to really overpay to get anything.

 

At 5 games out, the Sox and the Orioles have the largest deficit in MLB. Even the 2-8 A’s and 3-7 Cardinals are only 4 GB.

 

That’s why I suggested DeJong. The Sox aren’t likely to get a hitter or pitcher yet without making a crazy deal. (Marcelo Mayer for Brian Reynolds?). But maybe they can improve by shoring up the defense…

[moonslav59]

It’s only 10 games into the season, but with Duvall going down it’s apparent to me the Red Sox need help. The question is if Bloom is going to do anything this this year, or sit on his hands like he did last year for a couple of months. Any combination of Yang, Tapia, The Ref Man, Bobby D, Duran, and KIKE i don’t see cutting it to be somewhat productive. Things wasn’t good up the middle to begin with, but at least Duvall was mashing.

 

It's very hard to trade for impact player in April and May. It almost never happens.

 

That's not to say it can't happen. Reynolds might be the one guy available, but his asking price has been too high for any team to match.

 

BTV accepts:

 

Mayer for Reynolds

 

Casas, Yorke, Walter & Duran for Reynolds (I'm not sure PIT accepts this one.)

 

Do you approve of either deal?

[Old Red]

The Kut Man has been optioned to Worcester.

[Old Red]

It's very hard to trade for impact player in April and May. It almost never happens.

 

That's not to say it can't happen. Reynolds might be the one guy available, but his asking price has been too high for any team to match.

 

BTV accepts:

 

Mayer for Reynolds

 

Casas, Yorke, Walter & Duran for Reynolds (I'm not sure PIT accepts this one.)

 

Do you approve of either deal?

 

I would want to know what it would take to sign Reynolds first.

[Nick]

Realistically we are fighting for the last wild card spot so being 5 back of Rays is meaningless to me.

 

The goal is to get into the playoffs and see what we can do in a five or seven game series.

 

I am more upset that Kutter was sent down instead of last guy in the pen. What are we saving him for? We don't have the luxury of not going with our best 13 pitchers this year.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Nick

[Hugh2]

Realistically we are fighting for the last wild card spot so being 5 back of Rays is meaningless to me.

 

The goal is to get into the playoffs and see what we can do in a five or seven game series.

 

I am more upset that Kutter was sent down instead of last guy in the pen. What are we saving him for? We don't have the luxury of not going with our best 13 pitchers this year.

 

They want to keep him stretched out as a starter. It's a long season, what are the odds all our pitchers stay healthy? If a few guys surpass him on the depth chart I could see him as tradeable or moved to the pen down the stretch if is looking good.

 

Cutter is the first guy up as soon as they need a starter.

[moonslav59]

It’s tough to make any trades right now, since no one is selling yet. So you have to really overpay to get anything.

 

At 5 games out, the Sox and the Orioles have the largest deficit in MLB. Even the 2-8 A’s and 3-7 Cardinals are only 4 GB.

 

That’s why I suggested DeJong. The Sox aren’t likely to get a hitter or pitcher yet without making a crazy deal. (Marcelo Mayer for Brian Reynolds?). But maybe they can improve by shoring up the defense…

 

BTV accepted Brasier for DeJong and $6M.

[moonslav59]

I would want to know what it would take to sign Reynolds first.

 

Reports say he was asking for $134M/8 (about $17M x 8).

 

The Pirates reportedly offered $100M/7 of "new money."

[mvp 78]

These Rays are always doing better than what most pundits think they'll do.

 

They have ex GMs and staff all over the league, but why is it so hard to emulate their system- or steal some key personnel away?

 

We did steal some key personnel. Look where it got us.

[mvp 78]

It’s tough to make any trades right now, since no one is selling yet. So you have to really overpay to get anything.

 

At 5 games out, the Sox and the Orioles have the largest deficit in MLB. Even the 2-8 A’s and 3-7 Cardinals are only 4 GB.

 

That’s why I suggested DeJong. The Sox aren’t likely to get a hitter or pitcher yet without making a crazy deal. (Marcelo Mayer for Brian Reynolds?). But maybe they can improve by shoring up the defense…

 

Trade Mayer for 3 fWAR Bryan Reynolds? Why?

[mvp 78]

Realistically we are fighting for the last wild card spot so being 5 back of Rays is meaningless to me.

 

The goal is to get into the playoffs and see what we can do in a five or seven game series.

 

I am more upset that Kutter was sent down instead of last guy in the pen. What are we saving him for? We don't have the luxury of not going with our best 13 pitchers this year.

 

It just keeps his innings up rather than sticking him in the pen.

[moonslav59]

We did steal some key personnel. Look where it got us.

 

Yes, a much better farm plus recent grads like Bello & Whitlock. (Although Bello is not a Bloom guy, DD might have traded him by now.)

 

We shoulda stole more...

[mvp 78]

Reports say he was asking for $134M/8 (about $17M x 8).

 

The Pirates reportedly offered $100M/7 of "new money."

 

They were in agreement on $'s, he wanted an opt out the Pirates wouldn't agree to.

[Bellhorn04]

Although Bello is not a Bloom guy, DD might have traded him by now.

 

LOL we'll find a way to discredit Dave somehow, even if it's for good prospects he left behind.

 

(I'm joking. You're generally fair to DD.)

[Bellhorn04]

Trade Mayer for 3 fWAR Bryan Reynolds? Why?

 

Reynolds's 0.8 fWAR in 10 games this year is pretty impressive, though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I wouldn't trade either Mayer or Casas for just about anyone... except maybe a bonafide #1 ace starter like Alcantara. But Brian Reynolds -- the below-average outfielder we saw last week in Fenway drop a flyball using two hands?

 

Duvall may go down in lore as a Red Sox legend, because we only saw him on a hot streak. But would replacing Duvall -- whose injury may ruin his season or career, no matter when they say he'll be back -- really make the difference in building a sustained contender?

 

Don't forget, even though Bloom didn't resign Rich Hill, he still assembled the oldest pitching staff in the AL this season. Old starters will inevitably break down, which will limit innings with rehabbers and lead to the inevitable bullpen burnout. Btw, Boston also boasts the second-oldest batting line-up, right behind the Stankees. The Rays have the youngest in the majors.

 

When Tampa acquire players, they usually target pre-prime timers. Never mind Arozarena, who cost a top-20 draft pick, but think Boston couldn't use Harold Ramirez or Isaac Paredes or Jose Siri right now?

[mvp 78]

Reynolds's 0.8 fWAR in 10 games this year is pretty impressive, though.

 

And Duvall was going to have a 20 fWAR season.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't trade either Mayer or Casas for just about anyone... except maybe a bonafide #1 ace starter like Alcantara. But Brian Reynolds -- the below-average outfielder we saw last week in Fenway drop a flyball using two hands?

 

Duvall may go down in lore as a Red Sox legend, because we only saw him on a hot streak. But would replacing Duvall -- whose injury may ruin his season or career, no matter when they say he'll be back -- really make the difference in building a sustained contender?

 

Don't forget, even though Bloom didn't resign Rich Hill, he still assembled the oldest pitching staff in the AL this season. Old starters will inevitably break down, which will limit innings with rehabbers and lead to the inevitable bullpen burnout. Btw, Boston also boasts the second-oldest batting line-up, right behind the Stankees. The Rays have the youngest in the majors.

 

When Tampa acquire players, they usually target pre-prime timers. Never mind Arozarena, who cost a top-20 draft pick, but think Boston couldn't use Harold Ramirez or Isaac Paredes or Jose Siri right now?

 

Reynolds is NOT the guy.

 

I agree with your thoughts on the types of players Tampa targets. Sox target guys on the way down. Bad move!

[mvp 78]

Per Statcast, Reynolds had 27 HR's last year, but he would have only had 20 expected HR's at Fenway last season.

 

He's just not a good fit at Fenway.

[notin]

Trade Mayer for 3 fWAR Bryan Reynolds? Why?

 

Did I or did I not post that as an example of overpay?

 

BTV also accepts Nick Yorke for Ramón Laureano, who as a RHH CF, is a nice fit. Yorke didn’t necessarily strike me as a prospect the Sox will miss, but he certainly could be…

[moonslav59]

LOL we'll find a way to discredit Dave somehow, even if it's for good prospects he left behind.

 

(I'm joking. You're generally fair to DD.)

 

I'm not sure DD would have traded Bello, Casas, Houck or others, but I don't see him standing pat as much as Bloom has with our farm capital.

 

[moonslav59]

Did I or did I not post that as an example of overpay?

 

BTV also accepts Nick Yorke for Ramón Laureano, who as a RHH CF, is a nice fit. Yorke didn’t necessarily strike me as a prospect the Sox will miss, but he certainly could be…

 

That's more like a deal I can see us making.

[Old Red]

Bottom line is I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for Bloom to do something to help the club. If he does something to help the club that would be great, but I’m not counting on it. What you see Chang, Tapia, Ref Man, Bobby D, and Kike may be all you get.

[moonslav59]

Bottom line is I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for Bloom to do something to help the club. If he does something to help the club that would be great, but I’m not counting on it. What you see Chang, Tapia, Ref Man, Bobby D, and Kike may be all you get.

 

But, would you do one of those trades listed?

 

It's easy to say "Do something."

 

What would you do?

[mvp 78]

Did I or did I not post that as an example of overpay?

 

BTV also accepts Nick Yorke for Ramón Laureano, who as a RHH CF, is a nice fit. Yorke didn’t necessarily strike me as a prospect the Sox will miss, but he certainly could be…

 

Your wording didn't left it open to interpretation.

 

I'm fine with a Yorke trade. He keeps tweaking his stance and has an injury history and a bad defensive profile.