A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This might be the summer where the Red Sox finally face a harsh reality in Boston -- when loading up on stopgaps actually widens the gap between them and true contenders... and the only thing it really stops is enthusiasm for the team, crowds in the stands and NESN on the tube.

[Old Red]

They would have to acquire someone. Right now, they will be going with Tapia/Refsnyder, which is not ideal!

 

Dalbec is coming up to fill in at SS? I don't like that either!

 

Why does Chaim hate defense and the starting rotation?

I agree with the first two parts, but I can’t answer the last part. It just seems like Bloom just adds players, and it’s up to Cora to make them fit. Even Schwarber was a good example of that.

[Bellhorn04]

This might be the summer where the Red Sox finally face a harsh reality in Boston -- when loading up on stopgaps actually widens the gap between them and true contenders... and the only thing it really stops is enthusiasm for the team, crowds in the stands and NESN on the tube.

 

So stopgaps become startgaps.

[moonslav59]

When is the last time the Red Sox had this many stopgap players to start the season?

 

2022, 2021, 2020

 

We actually signed way more players on 2 year deals or options for the 2nd year than the last 3 seasons.

 

10 Devers

5 Yoshida

2 Jansen

2 Martin

1 + 1 option Kluber

1 + 1 option Turner

1 + 1 option Joely (+1 arb)

1 + 1 option Bleier (via trade)

 

The only 1 year players added were Duvall, Kike (extended last summer), Mondesi via trade and Paxton (took option.)

 

2022: (Bogey, Nate, Vaz, Kike and JD were on their last years)

5 Story

2 Diekman (traded away)

1 + 1 opt Paxton

1 Wacha

1 R Hill

1 Strahm

1 Robles

1 JBJ via trade

 

2021:

3 arbs Renfroe

2 + 1 opt Sawamura (Let go)

2 Kike

1 + 1 opt Andriese (Let go)

1 Richards

1 Perez

 

2020:

Nobody was signed for more than 1 year

1 Ottavino (via trade)

1 Perez

1 Marwin

Edited April 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

This might be the summer where the Red Sox finally face a harsh reality in Boston -- when loading up on stopgaps actually widens the gap between them and true contenders... and the only thing it really stops is enthusiasm for the team, crowds in the stands and NESN on the tube.

 

We did add Story (5 years), Yoshida (5 years) and Devers (10 more years) in less than a 12 month period.

 

We slightly expanded the concept of "stopgap" from 1 to 2 year deals, or one year deals with options (all club options, except Turner's, which is a combo player-club.)

 

It's not like fans are going to be thrilled we got 2 years of Jansen, Martin, Kluber and Joely, but 2 years is a little better than 1.

 

We extended Kike from 2 to 3 years, too. I know that thrilled many fans.

 

With guys like Rafaela, Bello, Mayer, Casas and others knocking on the door, I can see why we put off adding long term at a few positions.

[Maxbialystock]

We did add Story (5 years), Yoshida (5 years) and Devers (10 more years) in less than a 12 month period.

 

We slightly expanded the concept of "stopgap" from 1 to 2 year deals, or one year deals with options (all club options, except Turner's, which is a combo player-club.)

 

It's not like fans are going to be thrilled we got 2 years of Jansen, Martin, Kluber and Joely, but 2 years is a little better than 1.

 

We extended Kike from 2 to 3 years, too. I know that thrilled many fans.

 

With guys like Rafaela, Bello, Mayer, Casas and others knocking on the door, I can see why we put off adding long term at a few positions.

 

Good. Somebody needs to respond to the nattering nabobs of negativism with some good stats/numbers.

 

That's not me, of course. I simply have hope for the pitching staff, including the rotation, who--wait for it--has now had five freaking consecutive good/almost good starts in a row: Kluber with 1 run in 5 innings; Sale with 3 ER in 5 innings (which is a stretch, but I like how he looked in the 4th and 5th innings); Houck 2 runs in 5 innings; Crawford (of all people) with 1 run in 5 innings; and last night Pivetta with 0 runs in 5 innings vs. the highest scoring team in MLB.

 

Plus the bullpen looks good. And last night, for one night only at a ballpark not so near you, the Sox defense looked decent. Hoorah, hoorah!

 

Only the hitting stunk.

 

And even the hitting gets an asterisk because in the 8th inning Verdugo walked, Arroyo flied out to right, Bobby freaking Dalbec hit a solid single to left, Wong lined out (harder hit than Dalbec's single) to left, and Kike walked to load the bases with 2 out--bringing up Rafael Devers, who unfortunately was completely overmatched and looked at a called third strike well inside the strike zone.

 

But think about it. Could we ask for more excitement than the way the Sox pitched and almost had an unreal rally in the 8th against far and away the hottest team in MLB?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

With guys like Rafaela, Bello, Mayer, Casas and others knocking on the door, I can see why we put off adding long term at a few positions.

 

... of course -- just don't tell me we're "all-in, absolutely!"

 

Sam Kennedy.

[moonslav59]

Good. Somebody needs to respond to the nattering nabobs of negativism with some good stats/numbers.

 

That's not me, of course. I simply have hope for the pitching staff, including the rotation, who--wait for it--has now had five freaking consecutive good/almost good starts in a row: Kluber with 1 run in 5 innings; Sale with 3 ER in 5 innings (which is a stretch, but I like how he looked in the 4th and 5th innings); Houck 2 runs in 5 innings; Crawford (of all people) with 1 run in 5 innings; and last night Pivetta with 0 runs in 5 innings vs. the highest scoring team in MLB.

 

Plus the bullpen looks good. And last night, for one night only at a ballpark not so near you, the Sox defense looked decent. Hoorah, hoorah!

 

Only the hitting stunk.

 

And even the hitting gets an asterisk because in the 8th inning Verdugo walked, Arroyo flied out to right, Bobby freaking Dalbec hit a solid single to left, Wong lined out (harder hit than Dalbec's single) to left, and Kike walked to load the bases with 2 out--bringing up Rafael Devers, who unfortunately was completely overmatched and looked at a called third strike well inside the strike zone.

 

But think about it. Could we ask for more excitement than the way the Sox pitched and almost had an unreal rally in the 8th against far and away the hottest team in MLB?

 

It may suck not having a stud to back up Duvall and are using Kike to back up Story, but really, were we supposed to sign 2-3 more big name players as back-ups?

 

I can certainly see why we went "stopgap" at SS (Mondesi 1 year) and CF (Kike 1 more year) and didn't really add anyone at 1B, except Turner as bench strength. We have mayer and Rafaela as our best prospects with 1-2 years on ML readiness.

 

I do wish we added another SP'er, but one could argue Sale, Paxton and Whitlock (from the pen) with Kluber made some sense. We also have some pretty-highly ranked pitchers that are ML ready, now: Mata, Walter, Murphy along with recent grads Bello, Wink and Crawford.

 

I'm not saying mistakes were not made, but there is only so much a GM can prepare for and spend enough money on.

[Nick]

Who’s going to play SS? I would rather just go to a platoon in CF right now with the Ref Man, and Tapia if they are just going to stay with what they got.

 

That's what I'm thinking. Why have them on the team if you're afraid to play them. Ref Man can play defense. I want to see what Tapia can do.

[moonslav59]

... of course -- just don't tell me we're "all-in, absolutely!"

 

Sam Kennedy.

 

Would all in have meant signing a stud back-up OF'er and SS?

[moonslav59]

That's what I'm thinking. Why have them on the team if you're afraid to play them. Ref Man can play defense. I want to see what Tapia can do.

 

No mention of the "butterfly man?"

[mvp 78]

That's what I'm thinking. Why have them on the team if you're afraid to play them. Ref Man can play defense. I want to see what Tapia can do.

 

Ref 2022:

-5 DRS, -2 OAA

 

Tapia 2022:

-4 DRS, -4 OAA

 

If Duran could hit, he'd be the starting CFer.

[mvp 78]

No mention of the "butterfly man?"

 

Project Monarch

[moonslav59]

Ref 2022:

-5 DRS, -2 OAA

 

Tapia 2022:

-4 DRS, -4 OAA

 

If Duran could hit, he'd be the starting CFer.

 

Why? Because of this?

-14 DRS, -2 OAA

 

[Bellhorn04]

Would all in have meant signing a stud back-up OF'er and SS?

 

If we say they should have re-signed Bogaerts, that will just open up the same case we've already litigated a million times.

 

The bottom line is we all agreed this was a huge offseason for Bloom. And for whatever reasons, budgetary or otherwise, he didn't do much to upgrade the team over last year's 78-84 squad.

[mvp 78]

Why? Because of this?

-14 DRS, -2 OAA

 

 

-14 DRS over 2 years in 630 Innings in CF. Refsnyder -2 in 115 Innings in CF, comes out to -11 DRS in 630 Innings. Yeah, if Duran could hit, he'd start of Refsnyder in CF.

[moonslav59]

If we say they should have re-signed Bogaerts, that will just open up the same case we've already litigated a million times.

 

The bottom line is we all agreed this was a huge offseason for Bloom. And for whatever reasons, budgetary or otherwise, he didn't do much to upgrade the team over last year's 78-84 squad.

 

We are only 1/16th through the season with Whitlock, Bello and maybe Paxton to join the club, soon and maybe Story, Mondesi, Joely and Duvall much later.

 

This was Bloom's make or break winter. I still think that. I'm not trying to move the goalpost by saying the price for big signings went way up, this past winter, and that limited what he could do, but that is not an excuse.

 

This is his team, now. Sale may end up being a blight we can blame on DD, but as a percent of the budget, DD's share went way down for this year.

 

I still like the Martin & Jansen signings. I'm hopeful Joely, Mills and Bleier can help and Wink or Crawford will contribute.

 

I still like the Yoshida signing, despite the slow start with his BA.

 

The Duvall signing was looking good.

 

Turner is a late season hitter, so I'll wait on him.

 

I liked the idea of choosing Casas as our FT 1Bman, so I can't really bash Bloom for that, but ultimately he will be judged. (I do recall many jumping on me for merely suggesting we trade Casas- not that I wish we did, just yet.)

 

I liked the McGuire trade and wonder why Wong is playing more.

 

The Story signing has to give us something, later on, or Bloom may be wilting and gone.

 

Too bad Mondesi isn't ready, now. Maybe that's on Bloom.

[moonslav59]

-14 DRS over 2 years in 630 Innings in CF. Refsnyder -2 in 115 Innings in CF, comes out to -11 DRS in 630 Innings. Yeah, if Duran could hit, he'd start of Refsnyder in CF.

 

-14 is better than -11?

 

BTW, Tapia is +3 DRS, career (449 innings) and +5 OAA. Why did you not mention that?

[mvp 78]

-14 is better than -11?

 

BTW, Tapia is +3 DRS, career (449 innings) and +5 OAA. Why did you not mention that?

 

I was just using 2022 stats, because those are the most relevant.

 

Tapia has only played 449 Innings in CF, but over 2,500 Innings in LF BECAUSE HE'S NOT A VERY GOOD CFER.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Would all in have meant signing a stud back-up OF'er and SS?

 

Come on, Sam, what is a back-up stud?

 

Most all-in teams traditionally have a true starting shortstop and true starting centerfielder and starting pitchers in their prime beyond a #5 man.

 

Those are all pretty important positions for actual contenders. How many actual contenders have you ever remembered in the preseason wishing and hoping and praying that everything goes right for the guys they're trying there?

[moonslav59]

I was just using 2022 stats, because those are the most relevant.

 

Tapia has only played 449 Innings in CF, but over 2,500 Innings in LF BECAUSE HE'S NOT A VERY GOOD CFER.

 

I'm not sure how 10 game sample size, or less, are relevant, but it is what it is.

 

So, Duran has played almost exclusively in CF, BECAUSE HE'S A VERY GOOD CF'ER?

 

I'm not sure we can claim anyone of these 3 are better or worse than the others on D, and Yes, if Duran could hit significantly better than Tapia or Ref, he'd probably be playing CF, but if we are going off 2023 numbers only, whereby Duran has zero ML stats, wouldn't he have to hit better than Tapia's 1.357 OPS to earn the job over him?

[moonslav59]

Come on, Sam, what is a back-up stud?

 

Most all-in teams traditionally have a true starting shortstop and true starting centerfielder and starting pitchers in their prime beyond a #5 man.

 

Those are all pretty important positions for actual contenders. How many actual contenders have you ever remembered in the preseason wishing and hoping and praying that everything goes right for the guys they're trying there?

 

Story and Duvall were not legit?

[Bellhorn04]

Story and Duvall were not legit?

 

Duvall is/was part of the Stopgap Squad. There were a lot of ?s, that's why we got him cheap.

[moonslav59]

Duvall is/was part of the Stopgap Squad. There were a lot of ?s, that's why we got him cheap.

 

He looked to be a legit starter, until the injury. My point was, were supposed to sign another OF'er at $10M? (If Story was healthy, we'd have Kike for CF.)

[Bellhorn04]

He looked to be a legit starter, until the injury. My point was, were supposed to sign another OF'er at $10M? (If Story was healthy, we'd have Kike for CF.)

 

Kike and Duvall both missed a lot of time last year. Both getting older and breaking down.

 

Bloom put together a team with a lot of question marks, that needed everything to go right in near-miraculous fashion. Duvall's injury only highlights this.

[moonslav59]

Kike and Duvall both missed a lot of time last year. Both getting older and breaking down.

 

Bloom put together a team with a lot of question marks, that needed everything to go right in near-miraculous fashion. Duvall's injury only highlights this.

 

I get that, but had he spent more on CF or on a lesser player with better health, then where do we spend less?

 

No Martin?

 

No Turner?

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure how 10 game sample size, or less, are relevant, but it is what it is.

 

So, Duran has played almost exclusively in CF, BECAUSE HE'S A VERY GOOD CF'ER?

 

I'm not sure we can claim anyone of these 3 are better or worse than the others on D, and Yes, if Duran could hit significantly better than Tapia or Ref, he'd probably be playing CF, but if we are going off 2023 numbers only, whereby Duran has zero ML stats, wouldn't he have to hit better than Tapia's 1.357 OPS to earn the job over him?

 

I didn't post a 10 game sample for Refsnyder, I posted his entire defensive DRS for OF from 2022. That's what I posted for Tapia too.

 

All I posted was that if Duran could hit better that he'd start CF over Refsnyder.

 

Tapia isn't a career 1.357whatever OPS guy. Refsnyder and Tapia are bench guys AT BEST. Duran has a starting profile if he put it together at the plate.

[mvp 78]

Duvall is/was part of the Stopgap Squad. There were a lot of ?s, that's why we got him cheap.

 

Some stop gaps do the job!

[mvp 78]

I get that, but had he spent more on CF or on a lesser player with better health, then where do we spend less?

 

No Martin?

 

No Turner?

 

Just go over the CBT. Why put forth another middling team?

[moonslav59]

Just go over the CBT. Why put forth another middling team?

 

You think that was Bloom's decision?

 

"We go round in circles..."

Edited April 11, 2023 by moonslav59