A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has Bello listed as a "breakout candidate..."

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2023-breakout-candidates-pitchers/

 

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

In the list of Greatest Decisions Ever Made, you’ll never find “picked a guy currently out with a forearm strain to have a breakout season.” But I’m still going to do it anyway, since it appears that Bello will be back from his current malady at the end of April. From FIP to xFIP to xERA to zERA, all the various run estimators that don’t use actual runs widely agreed that his rookie 4.71 ERA was highly misleading and that his pitching deserved better than that. ZiPS is convinced that he should have had eight more strikeouts and five fewer walks than his peripherals suggested, meaning that there’s even more room for his FIP to improve, or at least stay the same when he inevitably allows a few more homers than just the one in 57 1/3 innings. Bello can throw 98 and already changes speeds like a veteran; if his arm is OK, I think he’s could be just a little slider refinement away from being Boston’s best starting pitcher.

[mvp 78]

What are posters' beliefs on these over/unders?

 

Or, just say the one you think is the most clear over and most clear under...

 

OPS

.870 Devers UNDER

.815 Yoshida OVER

.790 Turner OVER

.785 Casas OVER

.780 Duvall UNDER

.750 Verdugo OVER

.750 Kike UNDER

.740 Arroyo UNDER

.700 McGuire OVER

 

ERA

3.40 Whitlock OVER

3.50 Sale UNDER

3.75 Houck UNDER

4.15 Bello UNDER

4.25 Kluber UNDER

4.50 Pivetta OVER

4.60 Crawford UNDER

4.70 Winckowski UNDER

 

Saves

34 Jansen UNDER

 

Place bets now!

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has the Sox rotation placing 13th- just ahead of Houston.

 

Projected WAR and IP

 

2.6 Sale 140

2.6 Whitlock 132

1.7 Kluber 148

1.6 Bello 103

1.5 Paxton 121

1.3 Pivetta 152

0.7 Houck 52

0.3 Crawford 26

0.1 Mata and Walter

 

Huh? Wha? I like our projections and all, but this one seems optimistic to me. Kluber and Pivetta look like solid number three starters, but their presence at the top of this list should alarm you. Getting 140 innings from Sale? He only threw 195 total from 2019 to 2022. The innings he does throw should be solid – he’s Chris Sale, still – but 140 sounds like a big ask at this point in his career. The same goes for Paxton’s 121 IP – he’s made six starts in the past three years. With him, I’m also concerned about how his stuff will look, given that he’ll be 34 and only recently started throwing off a mound again. A return to form would be a pleasant surprise, with the emphasis on “surprise.”

 

The good news for Beantowners is that an exciting youth movement is brewing below Paxton on this depth chart. Whitlock has been nails as a reliever and acceptable as a starter, and the team wants him in the rotation if possible, though he’ll miss the start of the season as he rehabs from hip surgery. Bello lit the minors aflame before putting in solid work in his debut last year, and we think his stuff will lead to more strikeouts (and yes, lots of walks) this year. I think he’ll comfortably eclipse this innings total as an obvious replacement for the various injured Sox. That’s assuming he can stay healthy himself – he won’t debut until mid-April thanks to elbow soreness. Houck is ticketed for a bullpen role, but he can start in a pinch. Boston’s young hurlers might be able to rescue the rickety rotation.

 

Consider me unconvinced, though. There’s too much bust and injury risk here for my liking. I’m not saying it can’t work out well. I just think that a prudent weighing of variables says that the Sox are running a large risk of ruin. Every team is two lost starters away from disaster, but the Sox seem more likely to run afoul of that problem than anyone else in this area of the list.

[mvp 78]

So, we have Story and Mondesi on the 60 day IL, and Alfaro on a minor league deal. That clears up some 40 and 26 man roster issues, for now, but some changes are bound to happen to both- maybe some within a couple weeks.

 

Players coming off the IL and possible moves:

 

Whitlock (early/mid April)> Ort to AAA

Paxton (mid April)> Kelly to AAA

Bello (mid/late April)> Bello or Crawinck to AAA

Rodriguez (early/mid May)> Crawinck to AAA

Mills (Mid May)> Mills to AAA

 

When Mondesi or Story come off the 60, my guess is Chang will be demoted and Ort or Chang will be traded or DFA'd.

 

 

 

 

Mondesi is still not officially on the 60 day IL.

 

The only move that is official is that Duran was sent to WOO. Other corresponding moves have not been announced.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fangraphs has the Sox rotation placing 13th- just ahead of Houston.

 

[/i]

 

The Houston Rockets? The Colt-45s? The Oilers? The NASA Mission Control Center?

[moonslav59]

Mondesi is still not officially on the 60 day IL.

 

The only move that is official is that Duran was sent to WOO. Other corresponding moves have not been announced.

 

Okay. soxprospects lists Mondesi as on the 60 day.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

[notin]

Okay. soxprospects lists Mondesi as on the 60 day.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

 

And I saw Kaleb Ort DFAd somewhere.

 

Worth noting, even soxprospects didn’t have Mondesi on the 60 Day IL on their transactions page…

[mvp 78]

Okay. soxprospects lists Mondesi as on the 60 day.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

 

They have jumped the gun on that one for now. It's likely to happen though.

[mvp 78]

And I saw Kaleb Ort DFAd somewhere.

 

Worth noting, even soxprospects didn’t have Mondesi on the 60 Day IL on their transactions page…

 

Was it from this notoriously fake account:

 

@CBSBrenton

#BREAKING The Boston Red Sox have DFA’d Kaleb Ort to make room for Ramiel Tapia. #MLBOpeningDay

 

Or from the very unreliable fake news: @BostonStrong_34 ?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What are posters' beliefs on these over/unders?

 

Or, just say the one you think is the most clear over and most clear under...

 

OPS

.870 Devers

.815 Yoshida

.790 Turner

.785 Casas

.780 Duvall

.750 Verdugo

.750 Kike

.740 Arroyo

.700 McGuire

 

ERA

3.40 Whitlock

3.50 Sale

3.75 Houck

4.15 Bello

4.25 Kluber

4.50 Pivetta

4.60 Crawford

4.70 Winckowski

 

Saves

34 Jansen

 

I'll take Casas as an over based on his OBP.

 

On the mound, Bello will be an under when he realizes he's better off with swings and misses rather than pitch to contact with the Sox' D behind him. For the same reason, the ERAs of Sale and Kluber will be worse, because they just can't put away hitters like they used to.

 

The swings of Turner and Duvall may benefit playing in Fenway, though Turner has at least shown he knows how to go with the pitch. Based on career OPS, one of them should be over your projections, and one of them under.

 

JT's career: .832.

Duvall's career: .755.

 

At this point in their careers, I just don't think either will play a full season injury-free.

[notin]

Was it from this notoriously fake account:

 

@CBSBrenton

#BREAKING The Boston Red Sox have DFA’d Kaleb Ort to make room for Ramiel Tapia. #MLBOpeningDay

 

Or from the very unreliable fake news: @BostonStrong_34 ?

 

 

I believe comments on MLBTR from multiple people, and they all got it from that notoriously fake account.

 

Ort is still with the Red Sox. It’s a sad day…

[moonslav59]

I choose to believe alternative facts;

 

Ort is not on the Sox.

 

Kari Lake is the Governor of Arizona.

[mvp 78]

I believe comments on MLBTR from multiple people, and they all got it from that notoriously fake account.

 

Ort is still with the Red Sox. It’s a sad day…

 

Ort would most likely get DFA'd to make room for a pitcher. It's impossible that it could ever really happen, but that's how it would theoretically be done.

[mvp 78]

I choose to believe alternative facts;

 

Ort is not on the Sox.

 

I will never post with bold font again.

 

If I had to choose one alternative fact it would be: Mookie Betts is the starting RF for the Boston Red Sox on 3/30/23.

[harmony]

Fangraphs has the Sox rotation placing 13th- just ahead of Houston.

 

Projected WAR and IP

 

2.6 Sale 140

2.6 Whitlock 132

1.7 Kluber 148

1.6 Bello 103

1.5 Paxton 121

1.3 Pivetta 152

0.7 Houck 52

0.3 Crawford 26

0.1 Mata and Walter

 

Huh? Wha? I like our projections and all, but this one seems optimistic to me. Kluber and Pivetta look like solid number three starters, but their presence at the top of this list should alarm you. Getting 140 innings from Sale? He only threw 195 total from 2019 to 2022. The innings he does throw should be solid – he’s Chris Sale, still – but 140 sounds like a big ask at this point in his career. The same goes for Paxton’s 121 IP – he’s made six starts in the past three years. With him, I’m also concerned about how his stuff will look, given that he’ll be 34 and only recently started throwing off a mound again. A return to form would be a pleasant surprise, with the emphasis on “surprise.”

 

The good news for Beantowners is that an exciting youth movement is brewing below Paxton on this depth chart. Whitlock has been nails as a reliever and acceptable as a starter, and the team wants him in the rotation if possible, though he’ll miss the start of the season as he rehabs from hip surgery. Bello lit the minors aflame before putting in solid work in his debut last year, and we think his stuff will lead to more strikeouts (and yes, lots of walks) this year. I think he’ll comfortably eclipse this innings total as an obvious replacement for the various injured Sox. That’s assuming he can stay healthy himself – he won’t debut until mid-April thanks to elbow soreness. Houck is ticketed for a bullpen role, but he can start in a pinch. Boston’s young hurlers might be able to rescue the rickety rotation.

 

Consider me unconvinced, though. There’s too much bust and injury risk here for my liking. I’m not saying it can’t work out well. I just think that a prudent weighing of variables says that the Sox are running a large risk of ruin. Every team is two lost starters away from disaster, but the Sox seem more likely to run afoul of that problem than anyone else in this area of the list.

At No. 13 the Boston rotation is ranked ahead of the Seattle rotation at No. 17 by FanGraphs:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/

 

... despite this summary:

If they are blessed with health, this could be one of the best rotations in the American League. Castillo is going to get his first full season out of Cincinnati, Kirby and Gilbert are premium control artists who the team is hoping to get 350-plus innings out of, and Ray is a former Cy Young winner. Castillo is my pick to win this year, as his command jumped a level with the M’s late last year and he already had the premium strikeout stuff. If either Kirby or Gilbert can find a consistent strikeout pitch, they will put themselves in contention for at least down ballot Cy consideration.

[mvp 78]

The biggest shock of those numbers would be for Paxton. I can see Sale getting to 140 innings. Paxton is ALREADY struggling. Sale struggled to get back due to flukey injuries. Paxton is struggling to come back due to his genetics.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Kiké Hernández would become the first player ever to make Opening Day starts for the Red Sox at 2B, SS, and CF.

 

Only two players have started Opening Day games for the Sox at SS and CF: Jim Piersall (1950s) and Jack Rothrock (1920s).

[moonslav59]

At No. 13 the Boston rotation is ranked ahead of the Seattle rotation at No. 17 by FanGraphs:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/

 

... despite this summary:

 

Cause ours is better

 

(Or NOT)

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

The Athletics have traded outfielder Cristian Pache to the Phillies in exchange for minor league right-hander Billy Sullivan, per announcements from both teams. The Phillies opened a spot on the 40-man roster by placing first baseman Rhys Hoskins on the 60-day injured list.

[Hugh2]

Can we just all give pause for one moment.

 

We have f***ing baseball tomorrow!!!!!

[moonslav59]

Can we just all give pause for one moment.

 

We have f***ing baseball tomorrow!!!!!

 

Hell YES!

[Old Red]

Can we just all give pause for one moment.

 

We have f***ing baseball tomorrow!!!!!

 

Low 40’s 15-25 WNW breeze with higher guest a great day for baseball.

[notin]

Low 40’s 15-25 WNW breeze with higher guest a great day for baseball.

 

Only watching. Not playing. Not attending…

[Larry Cook]

Only watching. Not playing. Not attending…

 

Amen brother!!!! Too cold for me to attend!!!

[moonslav59]

Amen brother!!!! Too cold for me to attend!!!

 

But, who is this "higher guest?"

[Old Red]

But, who is this "higher guest?"

 

That’s an easy one. JH!

[Hugh2]

Low 40’s 15-25 WNW breeze with higher guest a great day for baseball.

 

You gotta love March/April baseball in New England, it can be 65 degrees or snowing.

 

Either way, it's perfect weather on my COUCH!!!!

[moonslav59]

PLAY BALL!!!!

 

Go Sox!

[a700hitter]

Everyone except for Bloom saw this coming.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/red-sox-place-adalberto-mondesi-on-60-day-il.html

[moonslav59]

Everyone except for Bloom saw this coming.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/red-sox-place-adalberto-mondesi-on-60-day-il.html

 

Actually, several sites had Mondesi's ETA listed as Mid to late April, a few weeks ago.