A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Sure, he'd get to keep all the dough, but would lose the prospect. Now he's getting paid to replant his farm...

 

I get it, but he technically lost $50K, today, but yes, he gained a prospect.

[notin]

I get it, but he technically lost $50K, today, but yes, he gained a prospect.

 

A prospect not good enough for the Orioles!!!

[vegasbob]

I volunteer to be the misguided contributor because I often am.

 

Season starts Thursday at Fenway vs. the Orioles, Kluber vs. Gibson. Looks like the weather will be sunny and cold (high of 41).

 

I believe this year the Sox are expected to finish 5th in the AL East, which I have to admit is reasonable.

 

look at it this way; In a 15 team league finishing 5th in 1/3rd of that league is an achievement according to SoxNotes.

[notin]

Tapia to Boston

 

Duran to Worcester

 

Ort to DFA-Land

 

Yes, the Sox finally DFAd Ort. That’s not a typo…

[vegasbob]

Tapia and Ort both logical choices to head in their respective directions. Tapia brings a good ST and MLB experience to the roster where OF play may be an adventure until Yoshida learns the wall and CF is reduced in size,by, oh say an acre.

 

Ort is a 31 year old spot reliever without any real upside.

 

The active will look different by end of April, end of May, end of June and at the trade deadline. Recovering injuries especially to Mondesi and eventually Story , plus the possibilities of Bello, Paxton, Whitlock and Joely Rodriguez. On the other hand there may be the odd injury that jumps up and bites all its favorite IL candidates further messing with the mix.

 

Are Duran and Dalbec simply untradable ? They are cheap, relatively young, have seen MLB and vice versa . At least there is now some depth of sorts at Worcester , some real young, some wondering about their future. Still two more players who did not "graduate" into MLB regulars from the Red Sox MiLB system.

[moonslav59]

A prospect not good enough for the Orioles!!!

 

Not exactly.

 

He could not/would not make our 40, either.

[notin]

Not exactly.

 

He could not/would not make our 40, either.

 

With Baltimore, it needed to be the 26. And he was already left off our 40 once; that’s how Baltimore got him.

 

But honestly, I’m not so sure Politi is much of a prospect…

[notin]

Tapia and Ort both logical choices to head in their respective directions. Tapia brings a good ST and MLB experience to the roster where OF play may be an adventure until Yoshida learns the wall and CF is reduced in size,by, oh say an acre.

 

Ort is a 31 year old spot reliever without any real upside.

 

The active will look different by end of April, end of May, end of June and at the trade deadline. Recovering injuries especially to Mondesi and eventually Story , plus the possibilities of Bello, Paxton, Whitlock and Joely Rodriguez. On the other hand there may be the odd injury that jumps up and bites all its favorite IL candidates further messing with the mix.

 

Are Duran and Dalbec simply untradable ? They are cheap, relatively young, have seen MLB and vice versa . At least there is now some depth of sorts at Worcester , some real young, some wondering about their future. Still two more players who did not "graduate" into MLB regulars from the Red Sox MiLB system.

 

Duran and Dalbec are certainly tradable, but as neither is all that much of a player, that’s basically what they would get in return - someone else who isn’t all that much of a player…

[moonslav59]

Tapia and Ort both logical choices to head in their respective directions. Tapia brings a good ST and MLB experience to the roster where OF play may be an adventure until Yoshida learns the wall and CF is reduced in size,by, oh say an acre.

 

Ort is a 31 year old spot reliever without any real upside.

 

The active will look different by end of April, end of May, end of June and at the trade deadline. Recovering injuries especially to Mondesi and eventually Story , plus the possibilities of Bello, Paxton, Whitlock and Joely Rodriguez. On the other hand there may be the odd injury that jumps up and bites all its favorite IL candidates further messing with the mix.

 

Are Duran and Dalbec simply untradable ? They are cheap, relatively young, have seen MLB and vice versa . At least there is now some depth of sorts at Worcester , some real young, some wondering about their future. Still two more players who did not "graduate" into MLB regulars from the Red Sox MiLB system.

 

Someone would likely trade for Duran and Dalbec, but their stock is likely too low, right now to make it worthwhile.

 

I think the Sox hope they build value to a point where we can trade them for something better, of they can contribute on the big club in 2023 or 2024.

 

I do think our AAA depth looks better than recent years, and we will be seeing some of them on the big club to open the season- replacing Story, Mondesi, Whitlock, Rodriguez and maybe Bello and Mills who might have won an opening day slot.

 

[notin]

Someone would likely trade for Duran and Dalbec, but their stock is likely too low, right now to make it worthwhile.

 

I think the Sox hope they build value to a point where we can trade them for something better, of they can contribute on the big club in 2023 or 2024.

 

I do think our AAA depth looks better than recent years, and we will be seeing some of them on the big club to open the season- replacing Story, Mondesi, Whitlock, Rodriguez and maybe Bello and Mills who might have won an opening day slot.

 

 

 

I think moving Dalbec around and making him more versatile is a good idea. The only idea I’d be more excited about would be making him a weak side platoon corner outfielder. He has surprising speed and a cannon for an arm. If Dalbec could learn to judge flyballs (and not from whoever taught Duran) he could have a legit future as a weak side platoon bat.

 

Duran really needs to return to 2b. This whole OF experiment has been a mega flop…

[moonslav59]

I think moving Dalbec around and making him more versatile is a good idea. The only idea I’d be more excited about would be making him a weak side platoon corner outfielder. He has surprising speed and a cannon for an arm. If Dalbec could learn to judge flyballs (and not from whoever taught Duran) he could have a legit future as a weak side platoon bat.

 

Duran really needs to return to 2b. This whole OF experiment has been a mega flop…

 

Maybe they felt he was a flop at 2B.

[mvp 78]

Tapia to Boston

 

Duran to Worcester

 

Ort to DFA-Land

 

Yes, the Sox finally DFAd Ort. That’s not a typo…

 

This has NOT been announced. Just Duran to WOO. Ort has not been DFA’d yet.

[mvp 78]

The rumor is Mondesi to 60 Day IL and Tapia to the 40 Man.

[moonslav59]

The rumor is Mondesi to 60 Day IL and Tapia to the 40 Man.

 

I wasn't aware Mondesi was so far away.

 

I'm still wondering about the out-of-the-system pitcher they were seeking.

[mvp 78]

I wasn't aware Mondesi was so far away.

 

I'm still wondering about the out-of-the-system pitcher they were seeking.

 

I had wondered if it was heading there the other day. He hasn’t participated in a game. There are no reports of him working out. The updated rumor comes tonight from the Globe’s Julian McWilliams “per sources.” He doesn’t mention any updates about Ort. Earlier DFA rumor was inaccurate it seems.

[moonslav59]

At least there is now some depth of sorts at Worcester , some real young, some wondering about their future...

 

If everyone was healthy, this would likely be the 26 man roster and the Woo roster:

The Healthy 26

 

Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Paxton, Pivetta

Jansen, Martin, Houck, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier, Crawford, Kelly

McGuire, Wong

Casas, Turner (DH)

Arroyo

Hernandez, Mondesi

Devers

Yoshida

Duvall, Tapia

Verdugo, Refsnyder

 

AAA & AA (ML Ready or close)

Bello, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy, Gudino

Mills, Ort, Sheriff, Fernandez, Mosqueda, Shugart, Dermody, Feltman, Altavilla

Alfaro, CHamilton, RHernandez

Dalbec, Palka

EValdez, EDiaz, Sogard

Chang, DHamilton, Goodrum

Koss, Fitzy

Duran, Wilson

Rafaela, Allen

Crook, Abreu

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If everyone was healthy, this would likely be the 26 man roster and the Woo roster:

The Healthy 26

 

Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Paxton, Pivetta

Jansen, Martin, Houck, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier, Crawford, Kelly

McGuire, Wong

Casas, Turner (DH)

Arroyo

Hernandez, Mondesi

Devers

Yoshida

Duvall, Tapia

Verdugo, Refsnyder

 

AAA & AA (ML Ready or close)

Bello, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy, Gudino

Mills, Ort, Sheriff, Fernandez, Mosqueda, Shugart, Dermody, Feltman, Altavilla

Alfaro, CHamilton, RHernandez

Dalbec, Palka

EValdez, EDiaz, Sogard

Chang, DHamilton, Goodrum

Koss, Fitzy

Duran, Wilson

Rafaela, Allen

Crook, Abreu

 

 

 

Injecting some -isms -- "If everyone was healthy" then Bello would open in the rotation. He's no longer MLB-close, but MLB All-Star-close (and could be the Red Sox lone player representing the American League this summer). Bello has had the best stuff, control and potential on the staff since September.

 

Unfortunately, the minor league depth listed promises very few impact players to improve the parent club. Rafaela's glove and Valdez' bat would make a good amalgam...

[Bellhorn04]

My warm and fuzzies about this team were gradually dissipated by the horrendous finish to the spring games. 65 runs allowed in 10 games is very bad, exhibition games or not.

[Hugh2]

The only realistic view here:

 

@redsoxstats

Today the rosters got mass height edits

5'8->5'9 Ceddanne Rafaela

5'9->5'8 Enmanuel Valdez

6'0->5'10 Wilyer Abreu

6'0->5'11 Nathan Hickey

6'3->6'2 Marcelo Mayer

6'0->5'11 Nick Yorke

5'10->5'8 Tyler McDonough

5'10->5'9 Chase Meidroth

6'1->5'11 Mikey Romero

6'3->6'2 Roman Anthony

 

Bloom takes over the farm and everyone shrinks? this is unacceptable and he needs to be fired.

[Hugh2]

If everyone was healthy, this would likely be the 26 man roster and the Woo roster:

The Healthy 26

 

Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Paxton, Pivetta

Jansen, Martin, Houck, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier, Crawford, Kelly

McGuire, Wong

Casas, Turner (DH)

Arroyo

Hernandez, Mondesi

Devers

Yoshida

Duvall, Tapia

Verdugo, Refsnyder

 

AAA & AA (ML Ready or close)

Bello, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy, Gudino

Mills, Ort, Sheriff, Fernandez, Mosqueda, Shugart, Dermody, Feltman, Altavilla

Alfaro, CHamilton, RHernandez

Dalbec, Palka

EValdez, EDiaz, Sogard

Chang, DHamilton, Goodrum

Koss, Fitzy

Duran, Wilson

Rafaela, Allen

Crook, Abreu

 

 

 

I don't think we ever see this exact roster.

 

I think they find a way to keep Bello on this roster with full health in the pitching staff. Maybe he finds his way down to the minors for a couple of weeks but if he's still there by the time Mondesi is back something horribly went wrong.

[Hugh2]

I had wondered if it was heading there the other day. He hasn’t participated in a game. There are no reports of him working out. The updated rumor comes tonight from the Globe’s Julian McWilliams “per sources.” He doesn’t mention any updates about Ort. Earlier DFA rumor was inaccurate it seems.

 

I think it's just being delayed at this point. If you're not ready to add someone to the 40-man who doesn't need to be added yet then why DFA him when you can wait?

 

Ort's 9 lives are close to being up. It feels like he's the 40th man on the 40 man roster right now.

[mvp 78]

Bloom takes over the farm and everyone shrinks? this is unacceptable and he needs to be fired.

 

All these guys just uploading their Tinder profile heights rather than their actual heights... SMDH.

[mvp 78]

I don't think we ever see this exact roster.

 

I think they find a way to keep Bello on this roster with full health in the pitching staff. Maybe he finds his way down to the minors for a couple of weeks but if he's still there by the time Mondesi is back something horribly went wrong.

 

Over/Under on games played for Mondesi: 40?

[Hugh2]

All these guys just uploading their Tinder profile heights rather than their actual heights... SMDH.

 

Everyone wants to be 6'4" Chad.

[mvp 78]

Everyone wants to be 6'4" Chad.

 

Red Sox legend Chad Harville was only 5'9". Sad!

[Hugh2]

Red Sox legend Chad Harville was only 5'9". Sad!

 

That's the average height for a man, but makes you a midget on Tinder and in the NBA. I'm 5'11" and women think I'm short.

[moonslav59]

Over/Under on games played for Mondesi: 40?

 

Under

 

Devers 145 Over

Verdugo 145 Over

Yoshida 145 Over

Casas 130 Over

Kike 130 Over

Turner 130 Over

Duvall 120 Under

McGuire 110 Over

Arroyo 90 Over

Story 80 Under

 

GS

Pivetta 27+ Over

Kluber 25+ Under

Whitlock 23+ Over

Sale 20+ Over

Paxton 15+ Under

Houck 15+ Under (in pen)

Bello 15+ Over

Crawford 12+ Over (due to expected injuries)

Winckowski 10+ Under (Bello and Crawford will do well.)

 

[moonslav59]

What are posters' beliefs on these over/unders?

 

Or, just say the one you think is the most clear over and most clear under...

 

OPS

.870 Devers

.815 Yoshida

.790 Turner

.785 Casas

.780 Duvall

.750 Verdugo

.750 Kike

.740 Arroyo

.700 McGuire

 

ERA

3.40 Whitlock

3.50 Sale

3.75 Houck

4.15 Bello

4.25 Kluber

4.50 Pivetta

4.60 Crawford

4.70 Winckowski

 

Saves

34 Jansen

[notin]

Red Sox legend Chad Harville was only 5'9". Sad!

 

But it was all heart!!

[moonslav59]

So, we have Story and Mondesi on the 60 day IL, and Alfaro on a minor league deal. That clears up some 40 and 26 man roster issues, for now, but some changes are bound to happen to both- maybe some within a couple weeks.

 

Players coming off the IL and possible moves:

 

Whitlock (early/mid April)> Ort to AAA

Paxton (mid April)> Kelly to AAA

Bello (mid/late April)> Bello or Crawinck to AAA

Rodriguez (early/mid May)> Crawinck to AAA

Mills (Mid May)> Mills to AAA

 

When Mondesi or Story come off the 60, my guess is Chang will be demoted and Ort or Chang will be traded or DFA'd.