A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

That’s Operating Loss. It ignores a lot of other Mets derived revenue that comes in and goes into the owner’s pockets (tv, real estate, etc.).

 

And who has the real numbers?

[Bellhorn04]

Just arguing for the sake of arguing here, frankly. I don't know what the Mets real revenues and bottom line will be for 2023. But I'm pretty sure not many people do.

 

Also, the other penalties Cohen will be incurring will cost him some prospect talent. He realizes that, of course. His philosophy is he can offset all those negatives with the positives of spending.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just arguing for the sake of arguing here, frankly. I don't know what the Mets real revenues and bottom line will be for 2023. But I'm pretty sure not many people do.

 

Also, the other penalties Cohen will be incurring will cost him some prospect talent. He realizes that, of course. His philosophy is he can offset all those negatives with the positives of spending.

 

He also knows his fan base hasnt won a title in 37 years and he wants to win. My bet is he finally wins a title at some point and then starts to treat it like a business

[moonslav59]

He also knows his fan base hasnt won a title in 37 years and he wants to win. My bet is he finally wins a title at some point and then starts to treat it like a business

 

Makes sense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I thought the Walrus was Thurman Munson…

 

Now you know how many doughnut holes it takes to fill up Albert Belle.

[mvp 78]

And who has the real numbers?

 

Only the Mets have their numbers. We can deduce what is included in the Mets numbers when we look at what the Braves have presented.

[mvp 78]

He also knows his fan base hasnt won a title in 37 years and he wants to win. My bet is he finally wins a title at some point and then starts to treat it like a business

 

Could be a safe bet. Maybe treats it "more like a business."

[Bellhorn04]

Only the Mets have their numbers. We can deduce what is included in the Mets numbers when we look at what the Braves have presented.

 

I'd like to have a closer look at those Braves numbers some time.

[sk7326]

Oddly the cap seems to have had the opposite effect of what was intended. Or at the very least, has made zero difference.

 

Look at the NBA. Since they re-installed the cap in 1984, only 11 different teams have won a title. That stretch covers 38 seasons.

 

In capless MLB, you only have to go back to 2008 to find 11 different World Series Champions…

 

That is entirely about the nature of the sport. Just look at the spread in records. In baseball, the a team's best player at its most important position will end up only playing about 13% of the time! And of course it is a sport where a positive offensive outcome takes place about 32% of the time. It has always been the most noisy playoff statistically.

 

In the NBA the best players are on the floor anywhere between 70% to 100% of the time depending on the game. The sport has never had a lot of turnover - in most years it has been an oligopoly.

 

The cap's purpose was to limit spending. What has happened in baseball though is that the current system has given the players all of the downsides of the salary cap with none of the positives. In the NBA, the players get a look at the owner's books and a guaranteed % of revenue. Let's put it this way - I did a back of the envelope sort of calculation once ... if baseball had a salary cap like the NBA, the Pirates and Marlins would have a payroll around $150M.

[notin]

Just arguing for the sake of arguing here, frankly. I don't know what the Mets real revenues and bottom line will be for 2023. But I'm pretty sure not many people do.

 

Also, the other penalties Cohen will be incurring will cost him some prospect talent. He realizes that, of course. His philosophy is he can offset all those negatives with the positives of spending.

 

Probably why he didn’t couple his spending with draining the farm. At some point, minimum wage talent -even marginal talent - will be a necessity for that team…

[Bellhorn04]

Probably why he didn’t couple his spending with draining the farm. At some point, minimum wage talent -even marginal talent - will be a necessity for that team…

 

Yeah, you'd almost say he was judicious in his approach, which is hard to say without laughing.

[notin]

Yeah, you'd almost say he was judicious in his approach, which is hard to say without laughing.

 

 

I wouldn’t call it “judicious,” but I will say it want blatantly stupid…

[mvp 78]

Probably why he didn’t couple his spending with draining the farm. At some point, minimum wage talent -even marginal talent - will be a necessity for that team…

 

I mean, that's the LA Dodgers model, right?

[notin]

I mean, that's the LA Dodgers model, right?

 

Yes, but with a better farm.

 

Also - and this seems off to say - the Dodgers seem more rational with their contracts. For example, but the Dodgers guaranteed Freddie Freeman the same money the Mets guaranteed to Brandon Nimmo.

 

Now Nimmo is younger and has it spread out over more years. But he’s also more injury-prone, plays a tougher position, and, well, isn’t a former MVP…

[sk7326]

Yes, but with a better farm.

 

Also - and this seems off to say - the Dodgers seem more rational with their contracts. For example, but the Dodgers guaranteed Freddie Freeman the same money the Mets guaranteed to Brandon Nimmo.

 

Now Nimmo is younger and has it spread out over more years. But he’s also more injury-prone, plays a tougher position, and, well, isn’t a former MVP…

 

The Nimmo deal is risky as is the Diaz one (even before the injury)

 

But other big money stuff they have done is pretty decent business ... the Verlander and Quintana deals are good values.

 

The Dodgers are clearly the rainbow and what every team in the Sox' position should be aspiring to - particularly in the development side.

[notin]

The Nimmo deal is risky as is the Diaz one (even before the injury)

 

But other big money stuff they have done is pretty decent business ... the Verlander and Quintana deals are good values.

 

The Dodgers are clearly the rainbow and what every team in the Sox' position should be aspiring to - particularly in the development side.

 

Verlander’s deal is short, but it’s a $43.3 mill AAV for a 40yo starting pitcher who pitched 6 innings total in 2020 and 2021 combined…

[Bellhorn04]

Verlander’s deal is short, but it’s a $43.3 mill AAV for a 40yo starting pitcher who pitched 6 innings total in 2020 and 2021 combined…

 

Yeah, but he's married to Kate Upton.

[notin]

Yeah, but he's married to Kate Upton.

 

Also that whole 2022 AL Cy Young thing. But, yes, Kate Upton…

[Nick]

Verlander’s deal is short, but it’s a $43.3 mill AAV for a 40yo starting pitcher who pitched 6 innings total in 2020 and 2021 combined…

 

His value comes into play during playoffs. Mets are going for it.

[Bellhorn04]

His value comes into play during playoffs. Mets are going for it.

 

Yes, if ever a team could be said to be "all in"...

[mvp 78]

Yes, if ever a team could be said to be "all in"...

 

The 2011 Red Sox.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Boston has 2 teams with a great shot at winning a championship this year, but, unfortunately, the SOX aren't one of them.

My prediction is the SOX offense will hold their own, but the starting pitching will be the major weakness. Not because of lack of talent, but because of a good chance that they will all during the season be on the IL, except, of course, Pivetta. And the defense could also add to the frustration.

I predict the SOX will again finish 5th in the AL East.

 

However, on the bright side, many so-called 'experts' back in September predicted that the BRUINS wouldn't make the playoffs, so there's that.

[notin]

His value comes into play during playoffs. Mets are going for it.

 

He had a 5.85 ERA in the playoffs last year…

[Nick]

He had a 5.85 ERA in the playoffs last year…

 

Geez, quit throwing facts in my face.

[moonslav59]

He had a 5.85 ERA in the playoffs last year…

 

He's also 1-6 with a 5.63 ERA in 9 World Series starts.

 

(15-5 3.04 in other PO games.)

[mvp 78]

Boston has 2 teams with a great shot at winning a championship this year, but, unfortunately, the SOX aren't one of them.

My prediction is the SOX offense will hold their own, but the starting pitching will be the major weakness. Not because of lack of talent, but because of a good chance that they will all during the season be on the IL, except, of course, Pivetta. And the defense could also add to the frustration.

I predict the SOX will again finish 5th in the AL East.

 

However, on the bright side, many so-called 'experts' back in September predicted that the BRUINS wouldn't make the playoffs, so there's that.

 

I'm going out on a limb and saying 3rd place. I think the good vibes will carry into the season and get them to 88 wins.

[mvp 78]

@jaketodonnell

Anonymous quotes in ESPN on Yoshida deal in Dec.:

 

"Overpay for me ... too rich imo"

"I have no idea."

"We thought he was worth less than half [that]."

"I have no words."

 

I wonder if they still don't have any words.

[Old Red]

I'm going out on a limb and saying 3rd place. I think the good vibes will carry into the season and get them to 88 wins.

 

Well the good vibes I believe has to come from the starting rotation. If that holds up I can see them Winning somewhere around there.

[notin]

I'm going out on a limb and saying 3rd place. I think the good vibes will carry into the season and get them to 88 wins.

 

Thinking they pass Tampa, I assume?

 

Not impossible. But the question is - will 88 wins get them into the postseason? Last year it would have in either league…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well the good vibes I believe has to come from the starting rotation. If that holds up I can see them Winning somewhere around there.

 

The vibe I'm getting is that a successful season will be predicated not on the health of the old starters, but on the progress of Bello, Whitlock and maybe Houck, Crawford or Mata. If two of them emerge as dependable, above-average starters that take the ball every five days, the Sox will stay in the hunt.