A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

It will take several years to know. Does the spending pay off in a championship or two? Does it put the Mets in tax hell in a few years? Does Cohen suddenly realize he's made a big mistake and sell the team?

 

They haven't won in 37 years. I think the fans will be ok with tax hell for a decade as a trade off if it came to that.

[sk7326]

They haven't won in 37 years. I think the fans will be ok with tax hell for a decade as a trade off if it came to that.

 

Whether Cohen's choices are smart is one thing. But hell yeah - cannot fault an owner trying to win ... particularly in a sport where that sticks out like a sore thumb.

[Bellhorn04]

Whether Cohen's choices are smart is one thing. But hell yeah - cannot fault an owner trying to win ... particularly in a sport where that sticks out like a sore thumb.

 

How does it stick out like a sore thumb in baseball, exactly?

[Bellhorn04]

They haven't won in 37 years. I think the fans will be ok with tax hell for a decade as a trade off if it came to that.

 

You know better than that.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

 

FanGraphs put their positional power rankings up, starting with Catcher.

 

19. Red Sox

 

Surprisingly high? I guess that's just the state of the position these days...

 

McGuire/née McGee is projected to have 1.8 fWAR. Christian Vazquez is projected to have 2.1 fWAR, but makes 9M more per year for the next 3 years.

[mvp 78]

You know better than that.

 

They are Mets fans. I think they want a Championship.

 

I was fine that the Sox had to let a bunch of people go after 2004. I understood that my favorite player was going to go elsewhere. I wasn't a baby about it.

[mvp 78]

How does it stick out like a sore thumb in baseball, exactly?

 

No, BASEBALL sticks out like a sore thumb because there is no real cap.

[sk7326]

How does it stick out like a sore thumb in baseball, exactly?

 

For a sport without a salary cap, a lot of teams - big ones too - are not chasing the rainbow aggressively. The Mets and Padres are notable exceptions.

 

And that leaves out any number of small market teams who are just pocketing competitive balance money and not doing anything.

[Bellhorn04]

For a sport without a salary cap, a lot of teams - big ones too - are not chasing the rainbow aggressively. The Mets and Padres are notable exceptions.

 

And that leaves out any number of small market teams who are just pocketing competitive balance money and not doing anything.

 

Right, but how can you compare to other sports that do have a salary cap?

[moonslav59]

Not a good one. It happens all the time. I think they could have done a deal. You don't. That's clear.

 

I think only you and 700 think he was worth $16M x 3, not that this is a democracy.

[notin]

Play him backwards and he'll say, Paul is Ohtani...

 

I thought the Walrus was Thurman Munson…

[moonslav59]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

 

FanGraphs put their positional power rankings up, starting with Catcher.

 

19. Red Sox

 

Surprisingly high? I guess that's just the state of the position these days...

 

McGuire/née McGee is projected to have 1.8 fWAR. Christian Vazquez is projected to have 2.1 fWAR, but makes 9M more per year for the next 3 years.

 

I’m very hopeful McGuire works out well, but there is a lower floor for him than the aging Vaz, IMO. I’m not sure about how high his ceiling is, and I’m trying not to get too optimistic over his small sample size for the Sox in 2022.

 

The big Q for me, is how he builds connections to our staff. I think the higher ups on the Sox believe he can help to better maximise our staff’s potential, but that remains to be seen.

[notin]

Right, but how can you compare to other sports that do have a salary cap?

 

Oddly the cap seems to have had the opposite effect of what was intended. Or at the very least, has made zero difference.

 

Look at the NBA. Since they re-installed the cap in 1984, only 11 different teams have won a title. That stretch covers 38 seasons.

 

In capless MLB, you only have to go back to 2008 to find 11 different World Series Champions…

[mvp 78]

I’m very hopeful McGuire works out well, but there is a lower floor for him than the aging Vaz, IMO. I’m not sure about how high his ceiling is, and I’m trying not to get too optimistic over his small sample size for the Sox in 2022.

 

The big Q for me, is how he builds connections to our staff. I think the higher ups on the Sox believe he can help to better maximise our staff’s potential, but that remains to be seen.

 

Vaz had 0.4 fWAR over 138 games in 2021. That's a pretty low floor TBH. The only year McGuire was under that was 2020 when he only had 45 PA's. Seems like another common moonsLav misconception!

[mvp 78]

Oddly the cap seems to have had the opposite effect of what was intended. Or at the very least, has made zero difference.

 

Look at the NBA. Since they re-installed the cap in 1984, only 11 different teams have won a title. That stretch covers 38 seasons.

 

In capless MLB, you only have to go back to 2008 to find 11 different World Series Champions…

 

Since initiating the cap in 06, the NHL has had 12 different champs!

[mvp 78]

Since 06, the NFL has had 13 different champs.

 

I think NBA has a particular problem that is not associated with the cap.

[notin]

Since initiating the cap in 06, the NHL has had 12 different champs!

 

That would run counter if anyone cared about hockey….

[moonslav59]

Vaz had 0.4 fWAR over 138 games in 2021. That's a pretty low floor TBH. The only year McGuire was under that was 2020 when he only had 45 PA's. Seems like another common moonsLav misconception!

 

He did have a 0.4 fWAR with the CWS, before the trade.

 

Maybe I underestimated how bad Vaz can be over a full season. I’m usually accused of being too harsh on him.

[notin]

Since 06, the NFL has had 13 different champs.

 

I think NBA has a particular problem that is not associated with the cap.

 

The NBA cap actually permits and creates dynasties, since teams can sign their own superstars for more than other teams can.

 

The NFL doesn’t do that but certainly has ways to promote teams keeping their own, like franchise tags. But unlike the NBA, NFL players seems to hate that. But then NFL salary rules and structures don’t appear to follow rules of any known branch of mathematics. The NBA isn’t much better.

 

The NFL does position itself for more roster turnover than other sports because -Tom Brady aside - careers can be insanely short. Tough to build a dynasty when there will be 40 new faces within 5 years…

Edited March 20, 2023 by notin

[Nick]

Net Worth Summary

The majority of Cohen's fortune is derived from his holdings in hedge funds operated by Point72 Asset Management. The firm had $27.2 billion in assets under management in January 2023, according to the firm's website, of which about $9.5 billion belongs to Cohen.

 

Suppose Mets' revenue can only support payroll of $200M. At $346M opening day payroll, He'd eat about $150M.

 

I think he can afford it.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

He did have a 0.4 fWAR with the CWS, before the trade.

 

Maybe I underestimated how bad Vaz can be over a full season. I’m usually accused of being too harsh on him.

 

Plus my daughter thinks Vazquez has type 3 albanism based on his headshot. She also -again, diagnosing solely from his headshot - thinks Seattle RHP Matt Brash has Sanfilippo Syndrome…

[mvp 78]

The NBA cap actually permits and creates dynasties, since teams can sign their own superstars for more than other teams can.

 

The NFL doesn’t do that but certainly has ways to promote teams keeping their own, like franchise tags. But unlike the NBA, NFL players seems to hate that. But then NFL salary rules and structures don’t appear to follow rules of any known branch of mathematics. The NBA isn’t much better.

 

The NFL does position itself for more roster turnover than other sports because -Tom Brady aside - careers can be insanely short. Tough to build a dynasty when there will be 40 new faces within 5 years…

 

There are serious concerns with NBA dynasties, which existed long before the cap appeared in that league.

[mvp 78]

Net Worth Summary

The majority of Cohen's fortune is derived from his holdings in hedge funds operated by Point72 Asset Management. The firm had $27.2 billion in assets under management in January 2023, according to the firm's website, of which about $9.5 billion belongs to Cohen.

 

Suppose Mets' revenue can only support payroll of $200M. At $346M opening day payroll, He'd eat about $150M.

 

I think he can afford it.

 

We know from the Braves' filings that MLB teams make much more than 200M. He's not fronting any money for that payroll, especially in NY.

[Nick]

We know from the Braves' filings that MLB teams make much more than 200M. He's not fronting any money for that payroll, especially in NY.

 

Let me say it another way (and obviously I could be way off with numbers). In order for the Mets to break even on cash basis, regardless of gross revenue, player payroll for 40 man roster MUST be $200M or less, than the loss would be $150M if the payroll is $350M, which I think the owner can afford.

[mvp 78]

Let me say it another way (and obviously I could be way off with numbers). In order for the Mets to break even on cash basis, regardless of gross revenue, player payroll for 40 man roster MUST be $200M or less, than the loss would be $150M if the payroll is $350M, which I think the owner can afford.

 

Cohen could absorb any sort of loss like that most likely. I'm just saying that their current payroll isn't high enough for the Mets to take a loss. The owners are just generating less net income.

[notin]

There are serious concerns with NBA dynasties, which existed long before the cap appeared in that league.

 

They existed before because the formula for a dynasty was one-two superstar(s) plus good supporting cast. The cap they implemented allowed for teams to more easily maintain that…

[Bellhorn04]

Net Worth Summary

The majority of Cohen's fortune is derived from his holdings in hedge funds operated by Point72 Asset Management. The firm had $27.2 billion in assets under management in January 2023, according to the firm's website, of which about $9.5 billion belongs to Cohen.

 

Suppose Mets' revenue can only support payroll of $200M. At $346M opening day payroll, He'd eat about $150M.

 

I think he can afford it.

 

The $346 million doesn't include the estimated tax of $100 million.

[Bellhorn04]

Cohen could absorb any sort of loss like that most likely. I'm just saying that their current payroll isn't high enough for the Mets to take a loss. The owners are just generating less net income.

 

Forbes shows the Mets 2021 gross revenue as $302 million, with an operating loss of $96 million.

 

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall

 

If someone has a better source than Forbes, let's see it.

[mvp 78]

Forbes shows the Mets 2021 gross revenue as $302 million, with an operating loss of $96 million.

 

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall

 

If someone has a better source than Forbes, let's see it.

 

That’s Operating Loss. It ignores a lot of other Mets derived revenue that comes in and goes into the owner’s pockets (tv, real estate, etc.).

[Nick]

The $346 million doesn't include the estimated tax of $100 million.

 

Good catch......apparently I should be working for KPMG.