A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Hugh2]

I think Crawford probably has the higher ceiling than Winckowski. It's a little surprising as Crawford was unheralded in the system for many years and now they're relying on him to be the 6th man in the rotation.

 

This is from his SoxProspects page:

 

Summation: Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well. Has the potential for two above-average offerings in his fastball and curveball and a solid third pitch with his cutter, but command needs refinement. Combination of delivery and injury track record point towards him being best suited for a bullpen role.

 

He never ranked higher than 17th in the system.

 

I mean, in the absence of any other significant injury, he's pretty much being asked to do just what he is projected to be. hopefully he's only make 2 starts to start the season.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Crawford probably has the higher ceiling than Winckowski. It's a little surprising as Crawford was unheralded in the system for many years and now they're relying on him to be the 6th man in the rotation.

 

This is from his SoxProspects page:

 

Summation: Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well. Has the potential for two above-average offerings in his fastball and curveball and a solid third pitch with his cutter, but command needs refinement. Combination of delivery and injury track record point towards him being best suited for a bullpen role.

 

He never ranked higher than 17th in the system.

 

Some guys surprise the scouts at the ML level and some disappoint them.

[moonslav59]

Which is fine, be we have plenty of those guys on the roster already, if all you have are 4 and 5's then eventually your #2 and #3 starting pitcher is a back-of-the-rotation/swingman. I think if they both have a future in Boston at least one of them is going to have to move to the pen fulltime. Otherwise maybe one needs to be traded.

 

Not now, we need all the pitching depth we can get, but neither of those guys will strike fear into the hearts of our opponents, and both haven't looked great at the MLB level yet.

 

I totally agree, but many good and even great MLB pitchers started out shaky.

 

Others, like Houck, never looked all that great in the minors, but burst onto the ML scene doing well from day one.

[notin]

Soxprospects thinks Sherriff and Tapia make the 26 man roster. That does mean two 40 man slots need to open up.

 

Kind of surprised neither Murphy nor Walter is mentioned for the bullpen slot vacated by Rodriguez...

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects thinks Sherriff and Tapia make the 26 man roster. That does mean two 40 man slots need to open up.

 

Kind of surprised neither Murphy nor Walter is mentioned for the bullpen slot vacated by Rodriguez...

 

Weren't Murphy and Walter already sent to AAA? Does that matter in Spring Training?

[notin]

Weren't Murphy and Walter already sent to AAA? Does that matter in Spring Training?

 

I think they were sent down before Rodriguez got injured. If so, that could change their standings.

 

Like I said, they were both already on the 40 man. Keeping Sherriff means kicking someone off of it. Keeping Tapia would mean two people are waived. Even if Ort finally gets his long-deserved and well-earned DFA, who else would go?

[notin]

The Rangers released former Giants' setup man Reyes Moronta.

 

Moronta was on the short list of RPs I suggested as good targets, but he was absolutely pounded by opposing hitters this spring. This is why I am not a scout...

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox’s Garrett Whitlock likely to start Opening Day at Worcester on a rehab assignment

 

March 31

[moonslav59]

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox’s Garrett Whitlock likely to start Opening Day at Worcester on a rehab assignment

 

March 31

 

Hope it's just one rehab start, and he joins the rotation for the Sox on the second turn.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects has both Sheriff and Tapia making the 26, although neither are on the 40. They also have Alfaro in AAA, but he can bolt, if he is not added to the 40, so something has to give, for any of these things to happen.

 

The bottom 4 on the 13 man staff are Crawford, Winckowski, Kelly and Sherriff

Possible 40 man roster replacements for Sheriff or others: Mata, Walter, Ort

Will start on IL: JRod, Mills, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock

 

The bottom 4 on the everyday player list: Wong, Chang, Refsnyder, Tapia

Possible replacements:

Wong> Alfaro (if added to 40)

Chang> Valdez, Hamilton (not going to happen)

Refsnyder> Duran, Rafaela (not going to happen)

Tapia> Duran, Rafaela, Dalbec

60 Day IL: Story

Starts season on IL: Mondesi

 

If we add 1-3 from Tapia, Alfaro and Sheriff, who gets DFA'd or placed on the 60 day IL?

 

JRod to 60?

Mills to 60?

Trade someone? Dalbec, Brasier, Ort, Murphy, Hamilton, Valdez?

DFA?

[sk7326]

I don't really care if the Red Sox are ranked 10th or 15th; the point is that many rivals ranked ahead of them are also already ahead of them in the standings and are playoff teams.

 

The Boston front office is getting beat as badly as the players they're putting in the uniforms.

 

They are - but some aren't. I mean - the correlation between current performance and farm system ranking is dicey ... after all a lot of time the farm has just graduated their best fruit to the big club.

[harmony]

They are - but some aren't. I mean - the correlation between current performance and farm system ranking is dicey ... after all a lot of time the farm has just graduated their best fruit to the big club.

Seattle fell from No. 2 to No. 24 on MLB.com's preseason farm system rankings after in the past two years graduating four prospects who last season posted 5.3, 4.2, 3.2 and 3.0 fWAR.

 

The Mariners retain at least five years of team control over Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.

 

The current ranking includes the Mariner signing of Felnin Celestin, the second-ranked prospect in the January international class. The Seattle farm, which was also drained by trades for Luis Castillo and Eugenio Suarez, should be bolstered by three picks among the top 30 in this year's June draft.

Edited March 24, 2023 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

Seattle fell from No. 2 to No. 24 on MLB.com's preseason farm system rankings after in the past two years graduating four prospects who last season posted 5.3, 4.2, 3.2 and 3.0 fWAR.

 

The Mariners retain at least five years of team control over Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.

 

The current ranking includes the Mariner signing of Felnin Celestin, the second-ranked prospect in the January international class. The Seattle farm, which was also drained by trades for Luis Castillo and Eugenio Suarez, should be bolstered by three picks among the top 30 in this year's June draft.

 

Your team certainly seems to be much better-run the last couple of years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogaerts and JD Martinez combined for 31 home runs in their last year in Boston. They were replaced in free agency (via big contract or position) by Yoshida and Turner.

 

Over-Under for Masa and JT: 31 HRs? It would be great if both pop 20 apiece... but adjusting to a new country and/or league, with dead balls, and 31 could be close.

 

Story (currently shelved) and Dalbec (on the bubble) combined for 28 homers in '22. They were replaced (with Kike moving to short) by Duvall and Casas.

 

Over-Under for Adam and Triston: 28 longballs? Obviously, each has the power to exceed 28 himself... but if they don't hit 15 each, the Sox could be in trouble.

[Bellhorn04]

The biggest correlation with runs scored is OPS.

 

Last year the Red Sox scored 4.54 per game with 155 HR/.731 OPS

The Brewers scored 4.48 with 219 HR/.724 OPS

 

There are plenty more examples like that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The biggest correlation with runs scored is OPS.

 

Last year the Red Sox scored 4.54 per game with 155 HR/.731 OPS

The Brewers scored 4.48 with 219 HR/.724 OPS

 

There are plenty more examples like that.

 

Right, keeping the line moving is more important and fun to watch than hoping for a bomb while batters swing and miss at low-and-away sliders over and over and never adjust to the situation or count.

 

My biggest concern for the offense is maximizing the OPS potential of Casas and Yoshida. Let's put it this way: the Red Sox as an organization have always been obsessed with alternating a lefty-righty batting order. But this year they're loaded with lefty sticks and will not have a choice but to bat some back-to-back.

 

It's ok -- Japan's top of the order featured five lefty bats in a row... and they won the world.

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts and JD Martinez combined for 31 home runs in their last year in Boston. They were replaced in free agency (via big contract or position) by Yoshida and Turner.

 

Over-Under for Masa and JT: 31 HRs? It would be great if both pop 20 apiece... but adjusting to a new country and/or league, with dead balls, and 31 could be close.

 

Story (currently shelved) and Dalbec (on the bubble) combined for 28 homers in '22. They were replaced (with Kike moving to short) by Duvall and Casas.

 

Over-Under for Adam and Triston: 28 longballs? Obviously, each has the power to exceed 28 himself... but if they don't hit 15 each, the Sox could be in trouble.

 

To me, for several of these players, it's more about their 2023 OBP than HRs. Of all our hitters in 2022 with 180+ PAs only one had an OBP above the .358 mark set by Devers (Bogey at .377.)

 

Out of our top 13 hitters by PA (0ver 180 PAs) 7 had OBPs of .303 or worse.

10 of 13 were at .328 or less (JD was at .341.)

 

Yoshida is front and center. I'm hopeful he can get over .400 and even .420 is not out of the question.

 

Turner (.366 career, .350 in 2022 and .420 over his last 250 PAs of '22)

 

Casas is a big unknown, but our 1B OBP was .302, last year, so there is hope for massive improvement, here. Casas had a .358 OBP in 95 PAs in '22 and is looking great in ST'ing. His minor league OBP is .374 (.382 in AAA.) I don't think .350+ is unrealistic.

 

Verdugo could improve on .328 in 2022. He's a career .341 batter & .355 from '20-'21)

Kike could improve on .291 in 2022. Career .314 is not great but better than .291. He had a .337 OBP in '21 and .322 from 2018-2021.

Devers might improve on .358, but he was one of the very few Sox hitters who had a higher 2022 OBP than career OBP. His highest career OBP was .361 in 2019, so hoping for better is a stretch.

 

Duvall's .289 OPB leads me to think we need HRs from him.

 

Some 2022 OBP numbers to ponder:

 

.257 JBJ in 290 PAs

.283 Duran 223

.283 Dalbec 353

.287 Plawecki 175

.291 Kike 402

.298 Pham 235

.300 Cordero 275

 

Guys like Arroyo, McGuire, Ref, Tapia and others may make a mark, but it's hard to know.

 

[moonslav59]

They are - but some aren't. I mean - the correlation between current performance and farm system ranking is dicey ... after all a lot of time the farm has just graduated their best fruit to the big club.

 

I think it would be useful to see rankings that include all prospects as well as graduated prospects within the last 365 days.

 

Many teams have some quality recent grads, so I'm not sure our recent grads of Bello, Crawford, Wink, Duran, Wong and Ort would help us leapfrog more teams that who leapfrog us, but I'd like to see.

 

If you go back 2 years, we'd add Dalbec, Whitlock & Houck, but before that we have only Devers (2017 graduation.)

[moonslav59]

I think it would be useful to see rankings that include all prospects as well as graduated prospects within the last 365 days.

 

Many teams have some quality recent grads, so I'm not sure our recent grads of Bello, Crawford, Wink, Duran, Wong and Ort would help us leapfrog more teams that who leapfrog us, but I'd like to see.

 

If you go back 2 years, we'd add Dalbec, Whitlock & Houck, but before that we have only Devers (2017 graduation.)

 

Sox prospects.com's top dozen:

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Rafaela

5. Yorke

6. Mata

7. Romero

8. Walter

9. Anthony

10. Perales

11. Paulino

12. Wikelman

 

My top 10 after adding recent graduates (one year back)

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Bello

5. Rafaela

6. Yorke

7. Mata

8. Romero

9. Walter

10. Anthony

11. Perales

12. Crawford/Paulino/Wikelman

 

Go back 2 years:

1. Mayer

2. Whitlock

3. Casas

4. Bleis

5. Houck

6. Bleis

7. Rafaela

8. Yorke

9. Romero

10. Walter

11. Anthony

12. Perales

13. Crawford/Paulino/Wikelman

 

It might also be interesting to see a rankings based on all players at 24 or younger or with 5+ years of team control and at 26 or younger.

 

I'm sure other teams would have some massive talent added to their prospect list by doing this.

 

[notin]

Notin’s Top Ten

 

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Romero

5. Perales

6. Mata

7. Yorke

8. Anthony

9. Walter

10. W Gonzalez

 

 

As Casas has been told he’s made the team, I’m not putting him on my list. He and Bello have officially moved from “The Future” to “The Present”…

[moonslav59]

Notin’s Top Ten

 

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Romero

5. Perales

6. Mata

7. Yorke

8. Anthony

9. Walter

10. W Gonzalez

 

 

As Casas has been told he’s made the team, I’m not putting him on my list. He and Bello have officially moved from “The Future” to “The Present”…

 

Mine:

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Mata

5. Romero

6. Anthony

7. Walter

8. Perales

9. Yorke

10. E R-C

[moonslav59]

We have 21 pitchers on the 40:

 

Keepers:

 

SP: Sale, Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello

SP/RP: Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, JRod, Mills (to 60 day IL?)

Nothing all that special: Brasier, Kelly, Bleier

Bubble: Ort

Maybe add? Sheriff

 

19 Everyday Players:

McGuire

Casas

Arroyo, EValdez, D Hamilton

Devers

Kike, Mondesi (IL)

Yoshida, Refsnyder

Duvall, Rafaela

Verdugo, Abreu

Turner

 

Nothing all that special:

Wong

Dalbec

Duran

Bubble: Chang

Maybe add? Alfaro & Tapia

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have 21 pitchers on the 40:

 

Keepers:

 

SP: Sale, Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello

SP/RP: Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, JRod, Mills (to 60 day IL?)

Nothing all that special: Brasier, Kelly, Bleier

Bubble: Ort

Maybe add? Sheriff

 

19 Everyday Players:

McGuire

Casas

Arroyo, EValdez, D Hamilton

Devers

Kike, Mondesi (IL)

Yoshida, Refsnyder

Duvall, Rafaela

Verdugo, Abreu

Turner

 

Nothing all that special:

Wong

Dalbec

Duran

Bubble: Chang

Maybe add? Alfaro & Tapia

 

 

And that's not even including a few more journeymen Bloom will inevitably add to the journey by mid-summer.

 

Depending on how the breaks go, that looks like a surefire 70 to 90-win team...

 

Jordan Walker, 20, made the Cardinals, who chose him in the 2020 draft, four spots after Boston took Nick Yorke. Moved to left field, Walker at 6'5, 220, grades higher than Yorke in power, speed, arm and glove. But they're the same age with the same hit rating... so when can we expect Yorke up?

 

Btw, Pete Crow-Armstrong, drafted by the Mets in between Yorke and Walker, and traded to the Cubs for Baez, was rated the best defensive outfielder in the minors. But he may not make the bigs before Yorke, who as a second baseman made one of the best ST plays last week, ranging down the RF line for a diving catch. We gotta wear shades!

[jacksonianmarch]

And that's not even including a few more journeymen Bloom will inevitably add to the journey by mid-summer.

 

Depending on how the breaks go, that looks like a surefire 70 to 90-win team...

 

Jordan Walker, 20, made the Cardinals, who chose him in the 2020 draft, four spots after Boston took Nick Yorke. Moved to left field, Walker at 6'5, 220, grades higher than Yorke in power, speed, arm and glove. But they're the same age with the same hit rating... so when can we expect Yorke up?

 

Btw, Pete Crow-Armstrong, drafted by the Mets in between Yorke and Walker, and traded to the Cubs for Baez, was rated the best defensive outfielder in the minors. But he may not make the bigs before Yorke, who as a second baseman made one of the best ST plays last week, ranging down the RF line for a diving catch. We gotta wear shades!

 

Here's the deal, your scouts need to see the future when they draft players. Yorke's pick was categorically panned and then he popped before settling back in. Volpe's pick was categorically panned in the NY circles too and look how that is working out. I have played the "well, the guy who got drafted after is a superstar" game before. It isn't helpful

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here's the deal, your scouts need to see the future when they draft players. Yorke's pick was categorically panned and then he popped before settling back in. Volpe's pick was categorically panned in the NY circles too and look how that is working out. I have played the "well, the guy who got drafted after is a superstar" game before. It isn't helpful

 

We can also play the guys-who-didn't-make-it-yet game, too. Yorke, Walker, Crow-Armstrong may all become good MLB outfielders, but I'd still take Zac Veen over all of them. I've seen Veen play several times in person, and he has the talent, energy and charisma to become a big fan favorite... but he was also the first high schooler taken in the '20 draft -- way before Boston, New York or St. Louis picks.

[Hugh2]

Here's the deal, your scouts need to see the future when they draft players. Yorke's pick was categorically panned and then he popped before settling back in. Volpe's pick was categorically panned in the NY circles too and look how that is working out. I have played the "well, the guy who got drafted after is a superstar" game before. It isn't helpful

 

It's not uncommon, but most mlb players don't reach the majors by age 20. Holding a guy to that standard actually probably makes the opposite point that people think they're trying to make. When something is uncommon enough to where you can just start naming names. There's always an anecdotal case out there. Yorke could easily rebound this year and be knocking on the door by season's end, or early next year and that's ok. That would still be a fast track to the majors.

[moonslav59]

Here's the deal, your scouts need to see the future when they draft players. Yorke's pick was categorically panned and then he popped before settling back in. Volpe's pick was categorically panned in the NY circles too and look how that is working out. I have played the "well, the guy who got drafted after is a superstar" game before. It isn't helpful

 

Yorke did get hurt.

[mvp 78]

We have 21 pitchers on the 40:

 

Keepers:

 

SP: Sale, Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello

SP/RP: Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, JRod, Mills (to 60 day IL?)

Nothing all that special: Brasier, Kelly, Bleier

Bubble: Ort

Maybe add? Sheriff

 

19 Everyday Players:

McGuire

Casas

Arroyo, EValdez, D Hamilton

Devers

Kike, Mondesi (IL)

Yoshida, Refsnyder

Duvall, Rafaela

Verdugo, Abreu

Turner

 

Nothing all that special:

Wong

Dalbec

Duran

Bubble: Chang

Maybe add? Alfaro & Tapia

 

 

Why do you have Mills ahead of Bleier?

 

Mills career: 6.21 ERA, 4.58 xFIP

Bleier: 3.06 ERA, 3.79 xFIP

 

Bleier has been a solid pitcher for a long time. Wyatt is a waiver wire guy.

[mvp 78]

Yorke did get hurt.

 

One of the knocks on Yorke is that he has the injury bug.

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

Word from Fort Myers is Bobby Dalbec has been optioned to Triple-A and Jorge Alfaro will remain with the Sox in Worcester. Presumably that means Yu Chang and Connor Wong will both start the season with the big league club.