A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Well the good vibes I believe has to come from the starting rotation. If that holds up I can see them Winning somewhere around there.

 

Yes, it will most likely come down to the rotation.

 

The first issue is, of course, health. I feel pretty confident in 4-5 of our SP'ers, when healthy. Guys like Mata and Walter may surprise, if they can stay healthy, too.

 

The skill levels of our SP'ers, assuming no major age or injury-related regressions is pretty well proven. However, one should expect age regression (Kluber & Sale) and/or some time needed to return to form after dealing with injuries or surgery(Sale, Whitlock, Houck).

 

Sale turns 34 in a few days and hasn't put together a full season of greatness since 2018. He did have an ERA+ of 118 from 2019-2022, but only logged 196 IP over those 4 years. It's hard to know, if he can even post a 118 ERA+ over 170+ IP, this year.

 

Kluber turns 37 in 3 weeks and has 2 Cy Youngs under his belt, along with 3 other top 9 finishes. His last great year was also 2018. He has posted a 91 ERA+ since then, but did log 164 IP, last year. He posted a 112 ERA+ in 2021 in 80 IP with the Yanks, but it's hard to expect that over 160+ IP in 2023. I'm hopeful, but maybe just being a homer on Corey.

 

Whitlock turns 27 in June, which is often peak prime for many pitchers. He is coming off an injury and has not gone over 120 IP since 2018 (in the minors.) He's got some nasty stuff, and the big question seems to be how many innings can he give us, not his talent level.

 

Houck also turns 27 in June. He's posted some eye-opening numbers over his first 3 seasons in the bigs, but like Whitlock, it's about IP. He has a 150 career ERA+. His biggest struggle seems to point him towards long relief- not the rotation:

.504 OPSA first time facing an opp

.647 OPSA second time

1.017 third time, but the sample size is only 30 PAs.

 

Pivetta just turned 30, so is still in prime. He's been pretty steady for us at a 99 ERA+ and 31+ starts a year. He may be one of the league's best 5th starter, if we can fill the top 4 slots with guys better than him. He's had some long stretches of solid pitching within each season, with us. My hope is he can put together s 32 start stretch like those shorter ones.

 

Bello turns 24 in May and showed some promise after a rough first start or two, last year. He may be one of our biggest wild cards, but I'm very optimistic about his abilities.

 

Paxton is 34 and may be healthy by April. He had over 150 IP in both 2018 and 2019 with a 112 ERA+ over those 2 seasons. 23 IP over the last 3 seasons is the killer, but this guy may still have one good season left in him. 34 is not all that old.

 

7 SP'ers and only 5 needed. We may get by with 4 pitching well or even 3 pitching very well, as long as the others don't suck. having mata, Crawford, Winckowski and Walter as ML ready depth may also help.

 

I feel pretty confident we can find the right 5 to lift us to 2nd or 3rd place, but certainly 4th place is a reasonable expectation.

[moonslav59]

The vibe I'm getting is that a successful season will be predicated not on the health of the old starters, but on the progress of Bello, Whitlock and maybe Houck, Crawford or Mata. If two of them emerge as dependable, above-average starters that take the ball every five days, the Sox will stay in the hunt.

 

I'd add Wink to that list, but I fully agree. If we need to fill 2 slots with any 2 from Bello, Crawford, Mata and maybe even Walter, maybe we'll still be fine.

[sk7326]

Yes, it will most likely come down to the rotation.

 

The first issue is, of course, health. I feel pretty confident in 4-5 of our SP'ers, when healthy. Guys like Mata and Walter may surprise, if they can stay healthy, too.

 

The skill levels of our SP'ers, assuming no major age or injury-related regressions is pretty well proven. However, one should expect age regression (Kluber & Sale) and/or some time needed to return to form after dealing with injuries or surgery(Sale, Whitlock, Houck).

 

Sale turns 34 in a few days and hasn't put together a full season of greatness since 2018. He did have an ERA+ of 118 from 2019-2022, but only logged 196 IP over those 4 years. It's hard to know, if he can even post a 118 ERA+ over 170+ IP, this year.

 

Kluber turns 37 in 3 weeks and has 2 Cy Youngs under his belt, along with 3 other top 9 finishes. His last great year was also 2018. He has posted a 91 ERA+ since then, but did log 164 IP, last year. He posted a 112 ERA+ in 2021 in 80 IP with the Yanks, but it's hard to expect that over 160+ IP in 2023. I'm hopeful, but maybe just being a homer on Corey.

 

Whitlock turns 27 in June, which is often peak prime for many pitchers. He is coming off an injury and has not gone over 120 IP since 2018 (in the minors.) He's got some nasty stuff, and the big question seems to be how many innings can he give us, not his talent level.

 

Houck also turns 27 in June. He's posted some eye-opening numbers over his first 3 seasons in the bigs, but like Whitlock, it's about IP. He has a 150 career ERA+. His biggest struggle seems to point him towards long relief- not the rotation:

.504 OPSA first time facing an opp

.647 OPSA second time

1.017 third time, but the sample size is only 30 PAs.

 

Pivetta just turned 30, so is still in prime. He's been pretty steady for us at a 99 ERA+ and 31+ starts a year. He may be one of the league's best 5th starter, if we can fill the top 4 slots with guys better than him. He's had some long stretches of solid pitching within each season, with us. My hope is he can put together s 32 start stretch like those shorter ones.

 

Bello turns 24 in May and showed some promise after a rough first start or two, last year. He may be one of our biggest wild cards, but I'm very optimistic about his abilities.

 

Paxton is 34 and may be healthy by April. He had over 150 IP in both 2018 and 2019 with a 112 ERA+ over those 2 seasons. 23 IP over the last 3 seasons is the killer, but this guy may still have one good season left in him. 34 is not all that old.

 

7 SP'ers and only 5 needed. We may get by with 4 pitching well or even 3 pitching very well, as long as the others don't suck. having mata, Crawford, Winckowski and Walter as ML ready depth may also help.

 

I feel pretty confident we can find the right 5 to lift us to 2nd or 3rd place, but certainly 4th place is a reasonable expectation.

 

The team will hit enough. Yoshida looks like (from the eye test/WBC small sample) he should be at least an average bat in LF. The team should be able to score enough. It all comes down to run prevention. The pitching has upside and numbers - but you point out the uncertainty well. The team might have one of the league's worst outfields defensively - can they be improvements rangewise on potted plants out there. (that said, that could clean up very quickly if a certain tiny centerfielder in Portland/Worcester makes another developmental leap)

 

I am thinking 84-78, but I have no idea what that will mean standingswise.

[moonslav59]

The team will hit enough. Yoshida looks like (from the eye test/WBC small sample) he should be at least an average bat in LF. The team should be able to score enough. It all comes down to run prevention. The pitching has upside and numbers - but you point out the uncertainty well. The team might have one of the league's worst outfields defensively - can they be improvements rangewise on potted plants out there. (that said, that could clean up very quickly if a certain tiny centerfielder in Portland/Worcester makes another developmental leap)

 

I am thinking 84-78, but I have no idea what that will mean standingswise.

 

Our OF defense looks to be worse than 2022 at all 3 slots. If we can get Kike back in CF, it looks a lot better, as Duvall is better at the corner than Yoshida and Verdugo- assuming he plays over one in the OF.

 

I'm hopeful we will be better, defensively, at Catcher.

1B is vastly improved.

2B should be worse, as Story was great at 2B in 2022.

SS may be better.

3B is likely the same.

 

Overall, we look to be bottom 5 or 10 in MLB defense. Our pitching will have to be sharper.

 

[Bellhorn04]

@jaketodonnell

Anonymous quotes in ESPN on Yoshida deal in Dec.:

 

"Overpay for me ... too rich imo"

"I have no idea."

"We thought he was worth less than half [that]."

"I have no words."

 

I wonder if they still don't have any words.

 

But it's still too early for any crow to be served up to anyone...

[Bellhorn04]

The vibe I'm getting is that a successful season will be predicated not on the health of the old starters, but on the progress of Bello, Whitlock and maybe Houck, Crawford or Mata.

 

I'm gonna say that both are pretty important...

[moonslav59]

I'm gonna say that both are pretty important...

 

Mix and match. We just need 5 at any given moment.

 

I've always favored quality over quantity, but having so many promising SP'ers is nice, too.

 

I just hope we don't have to "trial and error" it through 3-4 failures before we find the right 5. We can't afford too many losses, along the way.

 

The vets (4):

Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton

 

The experienced RP/SP'ers (4):

Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowsi

 

The up and comers (2-3):

Bello, Walter (Murphy?)

 

I have to think that we can have 5 out of 10, at any given moment doing okay to well.

Edited March 22, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd add Wink to that list, but I fully agree. If we need to fill 2 slots with any 2 from Bello, Crawford, Mata and maybe even Walter, maybe we'll still be fine.

 

My point is that if the team contends for a wild card, it won't be because we "need to fill 2 slots" from the young arms, but because we'll want to make room in the rotation for them.

[moonslav59]

My point is that if the team contends for a wild card, it won't be because we "need to fill 2 slots" from the young arms, but because we'll want to make room in the rotation for them.

 

I understand and don't disagree. I like Whitlock and Bello's (and Houck, who I prefer in the pen) chances more than some of the 4 vets, too. (Sale, Kluber, Pivetta & Paxton.)

 

I'm just pointing out that we may also do well with all 4 vets staying relatively healthy and Whitlock starting 25+ games.

[mvp 78]

Well the good vibes I believe has to come from the starting rotation. If that holds up I can see them Winning somewhere around there.

 

Kluber should pitch a whole season and be solid. Sale has a good attitude. I think Bello can be a good middle of the rotation guy. If Whitlock can stay in the rotation for most of the season, it just leaves Pivetta to figure out the 5th spot. I'm not really counting on Paxton for many innings at all.

 

I'm not a believer in the Blue Jays.

[mvp 78]

Thinking they pass Tampa, I assume?

 

Not impossible. But the question is - will 88 wins get them into the postseason? Last year it would have in either league…

 

Blue Jays.

[mvp 78]

The team will hit enough. Yoshida looks like (from the eye test/WBC small sample) he should be at least an average bat in LF. The team should be able to score enough. It all comes down to run prevention. The pitching has upside and numbers - but you point out the uncertainty well. The team might have one of the league's worst outfields defensively - can they be improvements rangewise on potted plants out there. (that said, that could clean up very quickly if a certain tiny centerfielder in Portland/Worcester makes another developmental leap)

 

I am thinking 84-78, but I have no idea what that will mean standingswise.

 

They look like an 84 win team on paper. I think the vibes get them to 88. Just my opinion though.

[mvp 78]

But it's still too early for any crow to be served up to anyone...

 

Maybe some second guessing at least? Maybe at least an eye roll on that early report?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe some second guessing at least? Maybe at least an eye roll on that early report?

 

Probably so, yes.

[Old Red]

Our OF defense looks to be worse than 2022 at all 3 slots. If we can get Kike back in CF, it looks a lot better, as Duvall is better at the corner than Yoshida and Verdugo- assuming he plays over one in the OF.

 

I'm hopeful we will be better, defensively, at Catcher.

1B is vastly improved.

2B should be worse, as Story was great at 2B in 2022.

SS may be better.

3B is likely the same.

 

Overall, we look to be bottom 5 or 10 in MLB defense. Our pitching will have to be sharper.

 

 

It all depends what OF you talk about when you say the D should be worse than 2022. The start of 2022 the OF D was good, but the D got worse as the season went along, and especially when The Butterfly Man was in CF.

1B will be better.

2B if Arroyo stays healthy I don’t see any big drop off. Story was good, but did a lot of his work in short RF, which he wouldn’t be doing this year, and wasn’t all that great at turning the DP. Arroyo can hold his own a 2B.

SS no one knows how Kike will do. The most games he’s ever played in a season is 20+, so I’m on a wait, and see on that.

3B Hopefully Raffy improves.

C I’m not sure will be better either.

[mvp 78]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/statcast-infield-defense?type=Fielder&playerId=596115&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&result=&direction=&normalize=undefined&roles=&esrGT=0&esrLT=1&evGT=0&evLT=125&distGT=0&distLT=200&batside=&viz=intercept_fielder_starting_position_

 

The majority of Story's defensive value came when he had his feet touching the dirt.

[Old Red]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/statcast-infield-defense?type=Fielder&playerId=596115&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&result=&direction=&normalize=undefined&roles=&esrGT=0&esrLT=1&evGT=0&evLT=125&distGT=0&distLT=200&batside=&viz=intercept_fielder_starting_position_

 

The majority of Story's defensive value came when he had his feet touching the dirt.

I’m not saying Story wasn’t good, but only that Arroyo is no big drop off, and turns the DP better.

[mvp 78]

For Catching:

 

Vaz: +5 Blocking, +1 Framing, pop ranked 21st, arm ranked 51st

McGuire: -3 Blocking, +3 Framing, pop ranked 36th, arm ranked 56th

Alfaro: -7 Blocking, -2 Framing, pop ranked 3rd, arm ranked 2nd

Wong: -3 Blocking, 0 Framing, pop ranked 9th, arm ranked 13th

[mvp 78]

I’m not saying Story wasn’t good, but only that Arroyo is no big drop off, and turns the DP better.

 

The metrics don't necessarily paint that picture, but he's going to be given the opportunity to win a fulltime job there. We'll see if he can hold it down. I feel like it's going to be another year where he fights off nagging injuries and only gets about 300 AB's.

[Old Red]

The metrics don't necessarily paint that picture, but he's going to be given the opportunity to win a fulltime job there. We'll see if he can hold it down. I feel like it's going to be another year where he fights off nagging injuries and only gets about 300 AB's.

 

Arroyo I believe was going to get the first shot as the 2B regardless of an injury to Story, or not, so when Story got injured, and by reports that he was planned on being the SS nothing changed for Arroyo, but as you said those nagging injuries always catch up to him. Plan B is most likely to happen at some point.

[moonslav59]

It all depends what OF you talk about when you say the D should be worse than 2022. The start of 2022 the OF D was good, but the D got worse as the season went along, and especially when The Butterfly Man was in CF.

1B will be better.

2B if Arroyo stays healthy I don’t see any big drop off. Story was good, but did a lot of his work in short RF, which he wouldn’t be doing this year, and wasn’t all that great at turning the DP. Arroyo can hold his own a 2B.

SS no one knows how Kike will do. The most games he’s ever played in a season is 20+, so I’m on a wait, and see on that.

3B Hopefully Raffy improves.

C I’m not sure will be better either.

 

I was looking at our overall OF defense from 2022, which included more innings Duran, Cordero, Pham, Arroyo and others than either Kike or JBJ. (Also, Kike's D was not as good in '22 as in '21.)

[mvp 78]

Arroyo I believe was going to get the first shot as the 2B regardless of an injury to Story, or not, so when Story got injured, and by reports that he was planned on being the SS nothing changed for Arroyo, but as you said those nagging injuries always catch up to him. Plan B is most likely to happen at some point.

 

If Plan B is a constantly injured Mondesi, is Plan C Enmanuel Valdez?

[mvp 78]

I was looking at our overall OF defense from 2022, which included more innings Duran, Cordero, Pham, Arroyo and others than either Kike or JBJ. (Also, Kike's D was not as good in '22 as in '21.)

 

You can throw Refsnyder in there when considering bad defenders. If his PT goes up, the defense in the OF will get worse.

 

Duran's can only get better, right?

[Old Red]

If Plan B is a constantly injured Mondesi, is Plan C Enmanuel Valdez?

 

Chang more than likely.

[mvp 78]

Chang more than likely.

 

Maybe? He played well at the WBC, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's in the long term plans for the Sox. They did drop him at the end of last season before bringing him back well into this offseason. A whole bunch of other teams passed on signing him for several months.

[mvp 78]

Yu Chang may be the Pedro Ciriaco/Jeff Bailey of 2023, but because of the WBC rather than Spring Training.

[Old Red]

Maybe? He played well at the WBC, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's in the long term plans for the Sox. They did drop him at the end of last season before bringing him back well into this offseason. A whole bunch of other teams passed on signing him for several months.

It’s bad we’re talking about plan C&D already. Hopefully it doesn’t get to that.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s bad we’re talking about plan C&D already. Hopefully it doesn’t get to that.

 

We’re talking about plan C&D already because we're nuts.

[Old Red]

We’re talking about plan C&D already because we're nuts.

 

Just anticipating something bad to happen especially after last year.

[moonslav59]

You can throw Refsnyder in there when considering bad defenders. If his PT goes up, the defense in the OF will get worse.

 

Duran's can only get better, right?

 

Yes, Ref was lumped in with "others."

 

Would he be average in LF?

 

Kike and JBJ combined had over 1300 OF innings in 2022. (Improvement looks unlikely, unless Kike plays healthy, like 2021, and more innings i the OF than in 2022.)

Verdugo alone had over 1300. (Improvement might be possible, if he does not play OF as much, but is likely worse playing in RF over LF.)

All the others had over 1400, and that is where improvement is possible.