A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

What about 2020 and 2021?

 

2020 is tricky with prorated amounts but we definitely would have gone over.

 

For 2021, we would have been over by $39M instead of being under by $5M. But here's the big question. Up 2-1 versus the Astros and hosting game 4, would Betts made the difference? If we win the title in 2021, everyone here would NEVER talk about the luxury tax.

 

Looks to me like Price's contract was the albatross around our neck.

 

I rather take chance with position players than pitchers on a long term deals, a la Devers.

[mvp 78]

What about 2020 and 2021?

 

2020 is tricky with prorated amounts but we definitely would have gone over.

 

For 2021, we would have been over by $39M instead of being under by $5M. But here's the big question. Up 2-1 versus the Astros and hosting game 4, would Betts made the difference? If we win the title in 2021, everyone here would NEVER talk about the luxury tax.

 

Looks to me like Price's contract was the albatross around our neck.

 

I rather take chance with position players than pitchers on a long term deals, a la Devers.

 

They were willing to eat 1/2 of Price's contract. He was coming off a 2 fWAR season in 2019. At that point, he's theoretically worth $16M to a team. If you are willing to pay half of his salary, he is clearly worth something in return, even if it's just for some lower end prospects.

[mvp 78]

But then, who do you have less respect for? A greedy a-hole who makes a bad business decision? Or a shill who works for him paid to take credit for those decisions?

 

I'm not sure Henry is making a bad business decision. His decision is based purely on business and the bottom line. I think he'd rather have a more Operating Net Income from year to year than worry about truly winning another championship. The shill you speak of would be the corporate mouthpiece Sam Kennedy.

[mvp 78]

Whitlock's contract

 

23: $1.00M Pre-Arb

24: $3.25M Arb 1

25: $5.25M Arb 2

26: $7.25M Arb 3

27: $8.25M FA 1 (club option)

28: $10.5M FA 2 (club option)

 

Could be a steal if he establishes himself in the starting rotation.

 

Considering the FA prices, he's a steal even if he's a solid late inning guy.

[Bellhorn04]

But then, who do you have less respect for? A greedy a-hole who makes a bad business decision? Or a shill who works for him paid to take credit for those decisions?

 

I have respect for both of them. It's not always easy making business decisions that you know fans will hate.

[mvp 78]

I have respect for both of them. It's not always easy making business decisions that you know fans will hate.

 

Henry is pretty insulated these days. I don't think he really worries about the fans at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure Henry is making a bad business decision. His decision is based purely on business and the bottom line. I think he'd rather have a more Operating Net Income from year to year than worry about truly winning another championship. The shill you speak of would be the corporate mouthpiece Sam Kennedy.

 

I'm quite sure Henry wants to win more championships. He doesn't need the money any more. He's just trying to be The Smart Guy Who Wins Championships and Also Keeps the Budget Balanced.

[Bellhorn04]

Henry is pretty insulated these days. I don't think he really worries about the fans at this point.

 

He took some questions by e-mail from Jen McCaffrey at The Athletic. And he went on a pretty big spiel about how the Red Sox fans were one of the biggest reasons he wanted to own the team in the first place.

 

Now you may say that was just BS, but if we won't take him at his word, what are we supposed to go on?

[mvp 78]

He took some questions by e-mail from Jen McCaffrey at The Athletic. And he went on a pretty big spiel about how the Red Sox fans were one of the biggest reasons he wanted to own the team in the first place.

 

Now you may say that was just BS, but if we won't take him at his word, what are we supposed to go on?

 

This was 20+ years ago. Back then he sat in the box seats and would talk with fans. Now he sits back where us peons no longer have access to him.

 

Like I said, Henry is insulated "these days." Part of the insulation is that others in management realize he has foot in mouth disease and they want to keep him away from everyone else as much as possible (see his comments and lack thereof at the winter weekend). There's a reason he did the interviews by email and not by phone or in person.

[Bellhorn04]

This was 20+ years ago. Back then he sat in the box seats and would talk with fans. Now he sits back where us peons no longer have access to him.

 

Like I said, Henry is insulated "these days." Part of the insulation is that others in management realize he has foot in mouth disease and they want to keep him away from everyone else as much as possible (see his comments and lack thereof at the winter weekend). There's a reason he did the interviews by email and not by phone or in person.

 

I undrstand. But Henry is not wrong to think that when you do try to explain yourself to the media and fans, they usually throw it back in your face. Tampa Bay North!

[mvp 78]

I'm quite sure Henry wants to win more championships. He doesn't need the money any more. He's just trying to be The Smart Guy Who Wins Championships and Also Keeps the Budget Balanced.

 

I disagree. He cares about the money that comes in. He doesn't say jack s*** about the lowly billionaires who own the Pirates, Reds, A's, Marlins and other teams who don't spend on their teams, but take hundreds of millions each year in shared revenue (through tv and corporate shakedowns). Steve Cohen comes in and Henry can't stop bitching about it. The problem with baseball isn't the Mets... Unless you're John Henry, because the Mets will make Henry spend more money. The bad teams that don't spend on their players won't force Henry to increase his payroll, but other rich guys will.

[mvp 78]

I undrstand. But Henry is not wrong to think that when you do try to explain yourself to the media and fans, they usually throw it back in your face. Tampa Bay North!

 

And that stuff is kinda dumb. You can have a reasonable discussion without turning into sports radio brain.

 

Yes, trying to minimize payroll costs and maximizing talent is good! Artificially suppressing salaries through a system where 1/3 of the owners don't even want to compete is bad!

[moonslav59]

They were willing to eat 1/2 of Price's contract. He was coming off a 2 fWAR season in 2019. At that point, he's theoretically worth $16M to a team. If you are willing to pay half of his salary, he is clearly worth something in return, even if it's just for some lower end prospects.

 

I do not think any team would have given up anything for Price at $16M x 3 at his age.

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree. He cares about the money that comes in. He doesn't say jack s*** about the lowly billionaires who own the Pirates, Reds, A's, Marlins and other teams who don't spend on their teams, but take hundreds of millions each year in shared revenue (through tv and corporate shakedowns). Steve Cohen comes in and Henry can't stop bitching about it. The problem with baseball isn't the Mets... Unless you're John Henry, because the Mets will make Henry spend more money. The bad teams that don't spend on their players won't force Henry to increase his payroll, but other rich guys will.

 

It's very early to say whether Cohen has done a good thing or a bad thing...

[moonslav59]

It's very early to say whether Cohen has done a good thing or a bad thing...

 

What are you waiting to see that might make it good?

[notin]

I'm quite sure Henry wants to win more championships. He doesn't need the money any more. He's just trying to be The Smart Guy Who Wins Championships and Also Keeps the Budget Balanced.

 

How many incredibly wealthy people who don’t need more money decide to just stop? Not many people in the USA are wealthier than Mark Cuban, yet he’s still out there every week on Shark Tank looking for more invest opportunities and always basing his decision on the financial status of the candidates’ proposals. As do all the other wealthy sharks on that show, but Cuban in particular stands out because his net worth is greater than all the other sharks combined. He’s wealthy even among the wealthy!! And yet he’s still making his decisions based on dollars and cents!

 

So I’m not 100% on board that comparative pauper John Henry isn’t concerned about the money. He didn’t get rich enough to purchase ownership stakes in multiple MLB franchises over the years by not worrying about money…

[Larry Cook]

How many outfielders make the team and get a trip to Boston in a few weeks????

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How many incredibly wealthy people who don’t need more money decide to just stop? Not many people in the USA are wealthier than Mark Cuban, yet he’s still out there every week on Shark Tank looking for more invest opportunities and always basing his decision on the financial status of the candidates’ proposals. As do all the other wealthy sharks on that show, but Cuban in particular stands out because his net worth is greater than all the other sharks combined. He’s wealthy even among the wealthy!! And yet he’s still making his decisions based on dollars and cents!

 

So I’m not 100% on board that comparative pauper John Henry isn’t concerned about the money. He didn’t get rich enough to purchase ownership stakes in multiple MLB franchises over the years by not worrying about money…

 

It's all laid out there in the Henry scene in Moneyball. He wants to win, just in the most affordable way possible... but not by cutting corners, staying out of free agency, and just hoping/relying on prospects to be pre-arb stars. John Henry wants to win and make money in clever ways -- that's the challenge for a man who has everything.

[moonslav59]

How many outfielders make the team and get a trip to Boston in a few weeks????

 

4

 

Yoshida

Duvall

Dugo

 

Refsnyder or Tapia (not both)

[mvp 78]

I do not think any team would have given up anything for Price at $16M x 3 at his age.

 

At his age?

 

Ryu was a year younger and got a 4x80 that offseason. He wasn't the picture of health either.

[mvp 78]

What are you waiting to see that might make it good?

 

What would make it bad?

[moonslav59]

What would make it bad?

 

It forces a strike or lock out next negotiations would top my list.

[moonslav59]

At his age?

 

Ryu was a year younger and got a 4x80 that offseason. He wasn't the picture of health either.

 

Nobody traded anyone to sign Ryu.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What would make it bad?

 

Take a sad Song, and make him badder...

[moonslav59]

Take a sad Song, and make him badder...

 

That was pretty bad.

[mvp 78]

Nobody traded anyone to sign Ryu.

 

Price's contract would end a year earlier and the Sox would only be dealing for low level, low ceiling prospects.

[moonslav59]

Price's contract would end a year earlier and the Sox would only be dealing for low level, low ceiling prospects.

 

They’d have been giving a prospect to get a team to take half his salary off our books.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Take a sad Song, and make him badder...

 

Play him backwards and he'll say, Paul is Ohtani...

[mvp 78]

They’d have been giving a prospect to get a team to take half his salary off our books.

 

Not a good one. It happens all the time. I think they could have done a deal. You don't. That's clear.

[Bellhorn04]

What are you waiting to see that might make it good?

 

It will take several years to know. Does the spending pay off in a championship or two? Does it put the Mets in tax hell in a few years? Does Cohen suddenly realize he's made a big mistake and sell the team?