A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Let's not leave out Baseball America at #10. that might be too high because they count Yoshida, 24 is just absurd Law is on some crack. Realistically they're probably in the middle. 14 feels about right.

 

I'm pretty sure the only group to leave them outside the top 15 is Keith Law.

[mvp 78]

This year's Apple TV game that nobody will be able to watch is:

 

Friday, April 14: San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers 6:30 p.m. ET; Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox 7 p.m. ET

[Hugh2]

I'm pretty sure the only group to leave them outside the top 15 is Keith Law.

 

Which is fine, who are any of us to critique? how many people REALLY know the strength of all the minor league systems?

 

What doesn't make sense is the Sox system seemingly got better, and even according to LAWS rankings they had more guys in the top 100 and move further up the 100.....but even in his own rankings they slipped from last year.

 

Law always seems to be an outlier in some way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The soxprospects.com podcast had the opinion we'd be 3-4 slots higher had Bello pitched 10 less innings in 2022.

 

(Note: other teams may have similar players like Bello.)

 

I don't really care if the Red Sox are ranked 10th or 15th; the point is that many rivals ranked ahead of them are also already ahead of them in the standings and are playoff teams.

 

The Boston front office is getting beat as badly as the players they're putting in the uniforms.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's not leave out Baseball America at #10. that might be too high because they count Yoshida, 24 is just absurd Law is on some crack. Realistically they're probably in the middle. 14 feels about right.

 

I also noticed that Law was very critical of the Yoshida signing.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't really care if the Red Sox are ranked 10th or 15th; the point is that many rivals ranked ahead of them are also already ahead of them in the standings and are playoff teams.

 

The Boston front office is getting beat as badly as the players they're putting in the uniforms.

 

Trending in the right direction at least.

[mvp 78]

I also noticed that Law was very critical of the Yoshida signing.

 

The issue with Law is that he's just a one man show. The other places use several people to make up the list. One person shouldn't be the end all, be all.

[mvp 78]

I don't really care if the Red Sox are ranked 10th or 15th; the point is that many rivals ranked ahead of them are also already ahead of them in the standings and are playoff teams.

 

The Boston front office is getting beat as badly as the players they're putting in the uniforms.

 

Agreed. They are probably somewhere between 10 and 15. They are definitely better than where they were prior to 2020 when they were at the bottom of most of the rankings. If the Sox showed that they had a better feel for developing pitching, they'd get a benefit of the doubt and would be ranked even higher as well.

[Hugh2]

Agreed. They are probably somewhere between 10 and 15. They are definitely better than where they were prior to 2020 when they were at the bottom of most of the rankings. If the Sox showed that they had a better feel for developing pitching, they'd get a benefit of the doubt and would be ranked even higher as well.

 

somewhere between 10-15 after being dead last just a few years ago is not only an amazing improvement, it's probably a level of organizational growth our rivals aren't seeing. Things can always go one way or another, but if this trajectory continues the Sox should have a top 10 system by consensus by years end. Law might have them 15th. haha

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trending in the right direction at least.

 

They have improved... but somehow teams always in the hunt -- with lower picks every year -- are still ranked ahead and churning out the promotions.

 

But gotta appreciate the optimism... the bell horns for thee.

[mvp 78]

I also noticed that Law was very critical of the Yoshida signing.

 

He wanted them to spend the money on Contreras instead. If Contreras was a fulltime Catcher going forward? Sure! Dude is going to be a DH pretty soon. Yoshida will at least be a LFer.

 

-4 Blocking Above Average

0 Framing Runs

12th Arm/Poptime

[mvp 78]

They have improved... but somehow teams always in the hunt -- with lower picks every year -- are still ranked ahead and churning out the promotions.

 

But gotta appreciate the optimism... the bell horns for thee.

 

Because it take a long time to turn around a farm system. Chaim's first draft was in 2020. Those guys haven't even played in AA yet. He was even handcuffed in that draft due to missing a 2nd round pick. The best farm systems have players ready to promote. Chaim doesn't have that yet because he hasn't been here long enough. The criticism you can levy is that they prospects he has traded for from other systems to bolster the farm haven't made an adequate impact.

[mvp 78]

In the FanGraphs positional power rankings for LF:

 

3. Red Sox

 

It stung when Xander Bogaerts signed a long-term deal with the Padres, but bringing in Masataka Yoshida on a five-year, $90 million deal ought to at least dull the pain somewhat. Players coming over to the United States from Nippon Professional Baseball hasn’t been a novelty for a long time now, so it’s not shocking to see a fairly large deal like this. While not every Japanese star has succeeded in MLB, Yoshida was one of NPB’s absolute elite players, leading the Pacific League in OPS in both 2021 and 2022, and last year finishing behind only Munetaka Murakami across NPB.

 

Yoshida is probably only going to be a medium-power corner outfielder in the majors, but given his superior contact skills, if things work out he could be a fixture in batting average races while still drawing walks. That makes him a better fit for Fenway than most; contrary to conventional wisdom, it hasn’t been a big home run park in 40 years. Indeed, Fenway has always been a lousy homer park for lefties, but a really good one for the other types of hits, so a ball-in-play guy like Yoshida ought to feel at home.

[moonslav59]

In the FanGraphs positional power rankings for LF:

 

3. Red Sox

 

It stung when Xander Bogaerts signed a long-term deal with the Padres, but bringing in Masataka Yoshida on a five-year, $90 million deal ought to at least dull the pain somewhat. Players coming over to the United States from Nippon Professional Baseball hasn’t been a novelty for a long time now, so it’s not shocking to see a fairly large deal like this. While not every Japanese star has succeeded in MLB, Yoshida was one of NPB’s absolute elite players, leading the Pacific League in OPS in both 2021 and 2022, and last year finishing behind only Munetaka Murakami across NPB.

 

Yoshida is probably only going to be a medium-power corner outfielder in the majors, but given his superior contact skills, if things work out he could be a fixture in batting average races while still drawing walks. That makes him a better fit for Fenway than most; contrary to conventional wisdom, it hasn’t been a big home run park in 40 years. Indeed, Fenway has always been a lousy homer park for lefties, but a really good one for the other types of hits, so a ball-in-play guy like Yoshida ought to feel at home.

 

It sure would be nice to see LF be a top 5 position for us.

 

When is the last time we had a top 3 LF'er in WAR?

[mvp 78]

It sure would be nice to see LF be a top 5 position for us.

 

When is the last time we had a top 3 LF'er in WAR?

 

2018 - 2nd

[moonslav59]

2018 - 2nd

 

Ah yes, Beni's one really good year.

[harmony]

Here's some food for thought though, where would the Sox be ranked if Bello (a pitcher) was still eligible? If he pitched 10 fewer innings last year he'd probably be bumping them up in the 10-13 range like BA has them.

It may depend on whether teams ranked immediately ahead of the Red Sox could include their players who barely lost prospect status.

[mvp 78]

It may depend on whether teams ranked immediately ahead of the Red Sox could include their players who barely lost prospect status.

 

How many "top prospects" barely lost their status though?

 

I agree that it's not as simple as "they should be 10th because of Bello."

[mvp 78]

Sox rotation to start the year per Cora:

 

Kluber

Sale

Houck

Crawford

Pivetta

[moonslav59]

Sox rotation to start the year per Cora:

 

Kluber

Sale

Houck

Crawford

Pivetta

 

Wink has looked pretty good, but Crawford does seem to be a bit better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Because it take a long time to turn around a farm system. Chaim's first draft was in 2020. Those guys haven't even played in AA yet. He was even handcuffed in that draft due to missing a 2nd round pick. The best farm systems have players ready to promote. Chaim doesn't have that yet because he hasn't been here long enough. The criticism you can levy is that they prospects he has traded for from other systems to bolster the farm haven't made an adequate impact.

 

You can't just pin it on one guy, even if it's on "his watch." There must be plenty of employees in front office before him who are still there. Sometimes accountability just results in shifting titles... people still work for the company, just sit in different chairs.

[Old Red]

Wink has looked pretty good, but Crawford does seem to be a bit better.

 

The Kut Man did have a good stretch last year, and it may be just a short stint now, but more likely than not he’ll get another one before the season is over.

[moonslav59]

The Kut Man did have a good stretch last year, and it may be just a short stint now, but more likely than not he’ll get another one before the season is over.

 

Agreed.

 

Both Wink and Crawford will likely get chances to earn their stay. Their numbers were not great, last season, but pitchers often need at least a year or two to establish themselves and make a stand.

 

Of course, many fail to find a foothold. I'm not overly optimistic about either one, but I do still think both have a decent chance to find a niche, and maybe the odds are better than 50% that one of them makes it.

 

It's hard to assign a percent to any unproven pitcher, but I like the odds than one or two of our bottom SP'ers will make a mark in MLB. Maybe not this year, and I guess what one defines as "making a mark" is likely subjective.

 

Let's say having a season over a 1.0 fWAR (like Nate in 2022) or 1.5 (like Pivetta and Wacha in 2022) is "making a mark," what are the odds each of these guys reach that level at some point in their careers. What percentage would you assign?

 

Beyond Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck...

 

As SP'ers only...

 

45-75% ???

Bello

 

35-65%???

Mata

 

30-60%???

Walter

 

25-55%???

Crawford

 

20-50%???

Winckowski

 

15-45%???

Murphy

 

To far away to estimate:

Perales

Wikelman

E R-C

 

(Just an off-the-cuff guesstimate.)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Wink has looked pretty good, but Crawford does seem to be a bit better.

 

Should it be Wink or Winks? I like Winks better.

 

These two have pitched solidly in the spring games, may it continue.

[Hugh2]

This is also the same Winc who struck out 44 guys in 70.1 innings and put up a 5.89 ERA last year. I mean, you could argue Crawford wasn't much better, but did show the ability to miss bats more than Winc. I also think Josh can be good in the bullpen, when he dials it back he actually misses a few bats. He will never do that as a starter.

[moonslav59]

This is also the same Winc who struck out 44 guys in 70.1 innings and put up a 5.89 ERA last year. I mean, you could argue Crawford wasn't much better, but did show the ability to miss bats more than Winc. I also think Josh can be good in the bullpen, when he dials it back he actually misses a few bats. He will never do that as a starter.

 

He certainly is, as Red likes to call them, "suspect," but it was his first MLB season, so some slack may be called for.

 

He looked pretty good in AAA (.653 OPSA with 62 Ks in 61 IP)

 

This may be his "make or break" season.

[Hugh2]

He certainly is, as Red likes to call them, "suspect," but it was his first MLB season, so some slack may be called for.

 

He looked pretty good in AAA (.653 OPSA with 62 Ks in 61 IP)

 

This may be his "make or break" season.

 

Crawford, or Winc? I don't think either of these guys is a starting 5 pitcher in a playoff-caliber rotation.

[moonslav59]

Crawford, or Winc? I don't think either of these guys is a starting 5 pitcher in a playoff-caliber rotation.

 

I'm thinking maybe one of the 2 could turn into a solid #5 SP'er, but maybe not in 2023. The odds of this happening may be under 50% but may be close to 50-50.

 

More likely, one may become an okay to decent long man out of the pen. The odds of one filling this sort of role is probably better than 50-50.

[Hugh2]

I'm thinking maybe one of the 2 could turn into a solid #5 SP'er, but maybe not in 2023. The odds of this happening may be under 50% but may be close to 50-50.

 

More likely, one may become an okay to decent long man out of the pen. The odds of one filling this sort of role is probably better than 50-50.

 

Which is fine, be we have plenty of those guys on the roster already, if all you have are 4 and 5's then eventually your #2 and #3 starting pitcher is a back-of-the-rotation/swingman. I think if they both have a future in Boston at least one of them is going to have to move to the pen fulltime. Otherwise maybe one needs to be traded.

 

Not now, we need all the pitching depth we can get, but neither of those guys will strike fear into the hearts of our opponents, and both haven't looked great at the MLB level yet.

[mvp 78]

This is also the same Winc who struck out 44 guys in 70.1 innings and put up a 5.89 ERA last year. I mean, you could argue Crawford wasn't much better, but did show the ability to miss bats more than Winc. I also think Josh can be good in the bullpen, when he dials it back he actually misses a few bats. He will never do that as a starter.

 

I think Crawford probably has the higher ceiling than Winckowski. It's a little surprising as Crawford was unheralded in the system for many years and now they're relying on him to be the 6th man in the rotation.

 

This is from his SoxProspects page:

 

Summation: Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well. Has the potential for two above-average offerings in his fastball and curveball and a solid third pitch with his cutter, but command needs refinement. Combination of delivery and injury track record point towards him being best suited for a bullpen role.

 

He never ranked higher than 17th in the system.