A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

I thought the bullpen was our biggest need? We did something about it. Shouldn't we improve at minimum, five games? That takes us up to 83-79. Tampa Bay got the last wild card spot with 86 games. Biggest improvement may come in the way of not having to play as many AL games. We seem to do better outside of our own division, historically.

 

Wacha was pretty much unkown last year. He started 23 games and pitched 127 innings. I would think Chris Sale can match those numbers. Yeah he's injury prone but how long can his bad luck continue?

 

Eovaldi started 20 games and pitched 109 innings. I would think Kluber can easily match those numbers.

 

Rich Hill started 26 games and pitched 124 innings. Is it too much to ask Whitlock to do the same?

 

I see Bello starting 20+ games this year. Again, I just don't see that as a gigantic ask.

 

Let's wait and see about our offense.

 

Circle me as an optimist.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’s bad we’re talking about plan C&D already. Hopefully it doesn’t get to that.

 

But after all, isn't Kike at short actually Plan D?

 

A. Bogaerts (they said he was the priority)

B. Story

C. Mondesi

 

E. Chang? Dalbec? Rico?

[mvp 78]

We’re talking about plan C&D already because we're nuts.

 

And because Arroyo and Mondesi have extensive injury histories.

[mvp 78]

Yes, Ref was lumped in with "others."

 

Would he be average in LF?

 

Really hard to say. He was a +3 DRS in LF with TBR in 2018, but hasn't had a lot of time there. Last year, he only spent 24 innings since they went out and got Pham at the deadline. He's clearly more suited to fielding LF and maybe RF depending on which field they are playing at (like Yankee3).

[Larry Cook]

Eovaldi threw 5 shut out innings today I think

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi threw 5 shut out innings today I think

 

Yup.

 

ST: 8.1 IP 0 ER

[Bellhorn04]

Some concerning splits on Houck?

 

Pitching to Vazquez 99 IP 1.64 ERA

Pitching to Plawecki 47 IP 5.94 ERA

Pitching to McGuire & others in spring games 17.1 IP 8.31 ERA

[Bellhorn04]

Yup.

 

ST: 8.1 IP 0 ER

 

10.1 IP actually. The Nate watch will be another interesting one.

[Hugh2]

Some concerning splits on Houck?

 

Pitching to Vazquez 99 IP 1.64 ERA

Pitching to Plawecki 47 IP 5.94 ERA

Pitching to McGuire & others in spring games 17.1 IP 8.31 ERA

 

I'm not saying he's a lock to be good, but I'm unconcerned.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm getting a bad feeling about McGuire as a catcher, but some of that can be chalked up to my superstitious nature, I guess.

 

Wong seems like a more hopeful candidate.

[moonslav59]

I'm getting a bad feeling about McGuire as a catcher, but some of that can be chalked up to my superstitious nature, I guess.

 

 

His ST'ing OPS has fallen to .573, while Wong's has risen to .800, but I think McGuire will prove to be the near FT starter.

 

I know they usually match catchers with specific pitchers, but maybe a catcher L-R platoon word work for us. It would likely give McGuire 60-65% of the starts.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying he's a lock to be good, but I'm unconcerned.

 

There has to be some sort of adjustment period, and many of the pitchers McGuire caught, late last season, are now gone.

 

(Houck missed the end of 2022.)

[moonslav59]

10.1 IP actually. The Nate watch will be another interesting one.

 

Bogey's at .739.

 

I hope people don't read too much into ST numbers.

 

I think we will have a solid team with about as many weak or weaker links as most contenders.

 

We are about a week from opening day!

 

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!!!

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox injury update (from covers.com):

 

(Other sites have Casas "day-to-day.")

3/30 Probable: Turner (face)

3/30 Doubtful: Mondesi (knee)

(Other sites have ... Late March: Wong)

Mid April: Whitlock (hip) other sites say "early April?"

Mid April: Paxton (hamstring) other sites say "early April?"

Late April: Bello (forearm) other sites say "mid April?"

Mid July: Story (elbow)

Indefinite: J Rodriguez (oblique)

 

3 starting pitchers out hurts, but it's not really unexpected. All are re-habbing and throwing.

 

We will likely start the season with Kluber, Sale, Pivetta, Winckowski

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB.com just rated the Farm Systems. They had Boston #16 -- basically for a few good position players but no pitching depth (compared with the Sox' "exciting" top prospects).

 

Baltimore is #1, but LA is #2... Cleveland is #4... Tampa #6... St. Louis #9... Yankees #13.

 

The O's are first mainly because they sucked for so long and got a lot of top draft picks. But the other clubs listed here are perennial contenders in the playoffs. They can't all be luckier than Boston in choosing or signing prospects.

 

Henry should invest more in better developmental staff than one-year contracts for veteran players rehabbing from injuries.

[Bellhorn04]

His ST'ing OPS has fallen to .573, while Wong's has risen to .800, but I think McGuire will prove to be the near FT starter.

 

I know they usually match catchers with specific pitchers, but maybe a catcher L-R platoon word work for us.

 

And why would that would be a good idea, Captain CERA?

[Hugh2]

MLB.com just rated the Farm Systems. They had Boston #16 -- basically for a few good position players but no pitching depth (compared with the Sox' "exciting" top prospects).

 

Baltimore is #1, but LA is #2... Cleveland is #4... Tampa #6... St. Louis #9... Yankees #13.

 

The O's are first mainly because they sucked for so long and got a lot of top draft picks. But the other clubs listed here are perennial contenders in the playoffs. They can't all be luckier than Boston in choosing or signing prospects.

 

Henry should invest more in better developmental staff than one-year contracts for veteran players rehabbing from injuries.

 

Here's some food for thought though, where would the Sox be ranked if Bello (a pitcher) was still eligible? If he pitched 10 fewer innings last year he'd probably be bumping them up in the 10-13 range like BA has them.

[mvp 78]

Some concerning splits on Houck?

 

Pitching to Vazquez 99 IP 1.64 ERA

Pitching to Plawecki 47 IP 5.94 ERA

Pitching to McGuire & others in spring games 17.1 IP 8.31 ERA

 

He has the dreaded reverse CERA split with Vazquez??? Unheard of!

[mvp 78]

I'm getting a bad feeling about McGuire as a catcher, but some of that can be chalked up to my superstitious nature, I guess.

 

Wong seems like a more hopeful candidate.

 

What kind of bad feeling? I think it's really low stakes for those two. I don't expect either to hit all that much. The 13th best Catching team per fWAR only had 1.8 fWAR last season. There were 11 teams that didn't even get to 1 fWAR at the position.

[sk7326]

Here's some food for thought though, where would the Sox be ranked if Bello (a pitcher) was still eligible? If he pitched 10 fewer innings last year he'd probably be bumping them up in the 10-13 range like BA has them.

 

Bello would help Boston for sure by a couple of spots. The major prospects outlets (MLB, Fangraphs, ESPN, Athletic) have the Red Sox between 14 and 24 - and really all of the variance comes down to how you feel about the organizational pitching. The Sox have done a good job building pitching inventory - but they need a few of the guys to deliver some of the "higher end" outcomes.

[moonslav59]

And why would that would be a good idea, Captain CERA?

 

Most "starting catchers" only catch under 780-820 innings out of 1400+ per team.

 

2022 Most Innings as a Catcher

 

900+: 7

820-880: 8

(15 over 820)

 

680-779: 9

620-679: 7

(15 under 778)

 

McGuire might only catch 55-65% of the innings for the Sox. I'm not sure how good he is with maximizing staff production vs Wong. (I think Alfaro is not known for defense.)

 

Normally, one would think building a "rapport" with a few selected pitchers is easier and better, but with so many new pitchers and catchers on this team, and a few pitchers out for much of ST'ing, I'm not sure how much rapport has already occured. Maybe we need to let both catchers catch everyone, until we can see who seems to do click with each pitcher. To start the season with a L-R platoon might make sense. I also think each catcher should catch all pitchers every now and again, in case the "binky catcher" gets hurt.

 

Maybe Cora has already worked out who will catch who, based on whatever he uses to determine this, but I think with so many unknowns, maybe maximizing the offensive output from our catchers, at least for a while, maybe not be a bad idea.

 

Catcher career splits:

 

Vs RHP

.837 Wong (46 PAs) .798 in minors '22 (245 PAs)

.731 McGuire (.691 in '22)

.689 Alfaro

 

Vs. LHP

.732 Alfaro

.497 McGuire (.605 in '22)

.333 Wong (24 PAs) .967 in minors '22 (78 PAs)

[moonslav59]

Here's some food for thought though, where would the Sox be ranked if Bello (a pitcher) was still eligible? If he pitched 10 fewer innings last year he'd probably be bumping them up in the 10-13 range like BA has them.

 

The soxprospects.com podcast had the opinion we'd be 3-4 slots higher had Bello pitched 10 less innings in 2022.

 

(Note: other teams may have similar players like Bello.)

[moonslav59]

What kind of bad feeling? I think it's really low stakes for those two. I don't expect either to hit all that much. The 13th best Catching team per fWAR only had 1.8 fWAR last season. There were 11 teams that didn't even get to 1 fWAR at the position.

 

Our catchers had a .694 team OPS in 2022, which included an .834 OPS from McGuire in 100 out of the team's 617 PAs as catchers. That was 16% of the team's PAs at C.

 

.735 Vaz (294 PAs) 48%

.588 Plawecki (171) 28%

.524 Wong (52) 8%

 

I'm not sure this catcher group can beat .694, but maybe they can come close but do better defensively.

 

[mvp 78]

@chadjennings22

Short-term injuries are piling up on the Red Sox pitching staff.

Reliever Wyatt Mills is being shut down for several days with elbow inflammation. Like Whitlock, Bello, Paxton and Rodriguez, he isn't expected to miss a lot of time, but timing isn't great so close to Opening Day.

 

Mills was a potential AAA guy to me anyway. Joely is the bigger issue for the pen.

[Bellhorn04]

What kind of bad feeling?

 

McGuire's 6.33 CERA with us last year freaked me out. And our pitching has been awful the last couple of weeks. And I know Wong has been out for a while.

 

But as I said, I can get pretty superstitious and irrational about some of this stuff.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

@chadjennings22

Short-term injuries are piling up on the Red Sox pitching staff.

Reliever Wyatt Mills is being shut down for several days with elbow inflammation. Like Whitlock, Bello, Paxton and Rodriguez, he isn't expected to miss a lot of time, but timing isn't great so close to Opening Day.

 

Mills was a potential AAA guy to me anyway. Joely is the bigger issue for the pen.

 

So, assuming the opening day 13 man staff does not include Paxton, Whitlock, Bello, Rodriguez and Mills, could it look like this?

 

Kluber

Sale

Houck

Pivetta

Crawford/Winckowski

 

Jansen

Martin

Schreiber

Brasier

Bleier

Winckowski/Crawford

Kelly

Ort

(Other options: Mata, Walter, Murphy or maybe Whitlock will be ready?)

 

Could we start the year with 12 on the staff? This season's schedule does not give many early days off:

6 games

Day Off

19 games

Day Off

10 games

Day Off

 

We might be able to start with 12 and add Whitlock 3-5 days into the season or wait until the first 6 games in 7 days are over.

[moonslav59]

McGuire's 6.33 CERA with us last year freaked me out. And our pitching has been awful the last couple of weeks. And I know Wong has been out for a while.

 

But as I said, I can get pretty superstitious and irrational about some of this stuff.

 

It was concerning, but remember, he was new to every pitcher and many of our best pitchers were out of action.

 

Most PAs with McGuire:

186 Pivetta (.840 OPSA)

120 R Hill (.800)

110 Crawford (1.034)

67 Bello (.592)

67 Brasier (.902)

60 Schreiber (.980)

52 Barnes (.620)

46 Ort (.882)

45 Wink (.905)

41 Davis .839)

35 Seabold, 31 Danish, 30 Sawamura, 29 Bazardo, 26 Familia, ONLY 21 w Whitlock (1.000), 19 Kelly, 19 Strahm, 14 German

10 DHern.

 

Total 1028 PAs (.874 OPSA)

 

574 (more than half) were with (our best) pitchers not named Pivetta 186, Nate 0, Hill 120, Wacha 0, Houck 0, Bello 67, Schreiber 60, Whitlock 21 and Strahm 19.

 

Top PAs w Vaz:

456 Pivetta

262 Hill

215 Whitlock

202 Wacha

174 Houck

 

With Plawecki

303 Nate

251 Wacha

149 Wink

124 Crawford

101 Hill

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

McGuire's 6.33 CERA with us last year freaked me out. And our pitching has been awful the last couple of weeks. And I know Wong has been out for a while.

 

But as I said, I can get pretty superstitious and irrational about some of this stuff.

 

What's the worst that can happen? They're a last DAMN place team? That's not uncharted waters.

[mvp 78]

So, assuming the opening day 13 man staff does not include Paxton, Whitlock, Bello, Rodriguez and Mills, could it look like this?

 

Kluber

Sale

Houck

Pivetta

Crawford/Winckowski

 

Jansen

Martin

Schreiber

Brasier

Bleier

Winckowski/Crawford

Kelly

Ort

(Other options: Mata, Walter, Murphy or maybe Whitlock will be ready?)

 

Could we start the year with 12 on the staff? This season's schedule does not give many early days off:

6 games

Day Off

19 games

Day Off

10 games

Day Off

 

We might be able to start with 12 and add Whitlock 3-5 days into the season or wait until the first 6 games in 7 days are over.

 

I think that's a good guess. The only change would be if they wanted to sneak Sheriff on there as he's had a pretty good spring. Yes, that would take another roster move! Yes, I would DFA Ort for Sheriff!

 

I don't see them starting with only 12 pitchers early on. The starters just aren't typically stretched out early on to do something like that.

 

I think Whitlock is back after 10 days. Bello is probably back after 20. Paxton is back after 30?

 

Not sure if they are leaning towards Crawford or Winckowski as the 5th man.

[Hugh2]

Bello would help Boston for sure by a couple of spots. The major prospects outlets (MLB, Fangraphs, ESPN, Athletic) have the Red Sox between 14 and 24 - and really all of the variance comes down to how you feel about the organizational pitching. The Sox have done a good job building pitching inventory - but they need a few of the guys to deliver some of the "higher end" outcomes.

 

Let's not leave out Baseball America at #10. that might be too high because they count Yoshida, 24 is just absurd Law is on some crack. Realistically they're probably in the middle. 14 feels about right.