A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Randy Red Sox]

Tanner Houck is a 3 inning pitcher. Not many things have been more obvious in the history of the world.

 

Innings 1-3 this year 2.12 ERA

Innings 4-6 9.26 ERA

 

He'd be good in the bullpen.

 

But he's in the rotation, because of Bloom's malfeasance.

 

dont give that info to Moonslav

[moonslav59]

And your point is???? Was your hero Bloom here for any of our 4 WS titles.

 

At least might point is accurate.

 

[moonslav59]

dont give that info to Moonslav

 

I gave the info to him.

[Randy Red Sox]

I gave the info to him.

 

maybe you should give it to Bloom

[moonslav59]

maybe you should give it to Bloom

 

My anti hero?

[Bellhorn04]

The Yanks lost, too, so those watching the race for last place will have to wait another day, at least.

 

The Yanks are trying to hand us 4th place, but I'm not sure we want it.

[Bellhorn04]

In the last 2 games our offense has 30 K's and 2 walks.

[notin]

Tanner Houck is a 3 inning pitcher. Not many things have been more obvious in the history of the world.

 

Innings 1-3 this year 2.12 ERA

Innings 4-6 9.26 ERA

 

He'd be good in the bullpen.

 

But he's in the rotation, because of Bloom's malfeasance.

 

Or is he a 5 inning pitcher?

 

His ERA in inning 1-5 is 3.38…

[Bellhorn04]

Or is he a 5 inning pitcher?

 

His ERA in inning 1-5 is 3.38…

 

2023 ERA by inning:

 

1 4.24

2 1.59

3 0.53

4 6.88

5 9.00

6 18.00

 

Sure looks like removal after 3 would work best!

[Randy Red Sox]

2023 ERA by inning:

 

1 4.24

2 1.59

3 0.53

4 6.88

5 9.00

6 18.00

 

Sure looks like removal after 3 would work best!

 

A permanent move to the BP for 2024 would be best.

[notin]

2023 ERA by inning:

 

1 4.24

2 1.59

3 0.53

4 6.88

5 9.00

6 18.00

 

Sure looks like removal after 3 would work best!

 

That’s one season. I used career numbers

[moonslav59]

2023 ERA by inning:

 

1 4.24

2 1.59

3 0.53

4 6.88

5 9.00

6 18.00

 

Sure looks like removal after 3 would work best!

 

To me, it's more about the 3rd time through a line-up or about 50 pitches.

 

Even when it looks like he's cruising, he hits a bump whenever he gets through 50 pitches or 18 batters. That could be the 3rd inning or during the 5th.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s one season. I used career numbers

 

OK, career:

 

1 2.43

2 1.22

3 3.03

4 5.15

5 5.16

 

Think I'd still like him out after 3.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, it's more about the 3rd time through a line-up or about 50 pitches.

 

Even when it looks like he's cruising, he hits a bump whenever he gets through 50 pitches or 18 batters. That could be the 3rd inning or during the 5th.

 

The inning splits couldn't be much more decisive.

[vegasbob]

In the last 2 games our offense has 30 K's and 2 walks.

 

This 2023 team seems to continue its streakiness with all players contributing in strange ways . A 50%+ K rate over two games may be a SSS but it's not the first time this season that they have gone into a collective hitting funk. Of course, Rays and O's pitching may be a part of it.

[moonslav59]

The inning splits couldn't be much more decisive.

 

Why more decisive than the 50+ IP splits or 3rd PA splits?

 

They both look similar and actually overlap with each other in most cases (games.)

 

I say this, because Houck reached 50 pitches and his 3rd PA through a line-up at various innings, usually the 3rd or 4th and sometimes the 5th, if he is doing well, and then he collapses. I seem to see that more than when he is starting the 4th or 5th innings. But, maybe it's just because that is what I am looking at, not the 3.2, 4.0. 4.1 IP numbers.

[Larry Cook]

2023 ERA by inning:

 

1 4.24

2 1.59

3 0.53

4 6.88

5 9.00

6 18.00

 

Sure looks like removal after 3 would work best!

 

We should be grooming houck to be our closer after janson leaves

[Bellhorn04]

We should be grooming houck to be our closer after janson leaves

 

Houck did OK as closer last year.

 

The only reason he went back in the rotation is that Bloom didn't notice we needed more starters.

[notin]

I did like the Houck-Whitlock bullpen tandem back in 2021 and really wish the Sox would go back to that. Couple those two with Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski and Bernardino and you have the potential for one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.

 

Shortening the game to 6 innings is better than signing an ace…

[moonslav59]

I did like the Houck-Whitlock bullpen tandem back in 2021 and really wish the Sox would go back to that. Couple those two with Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski and Bernardino and you have the potential for one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.

 

Shortening the game to 6 innings is better than signing an ace…

 

So, no ace- just sign 3 solid 175+ IP SP'ers, add Bello and Pivetta and go with a pretty damn good pen (add Crawford to your listed pen.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I did like the Houck-Whitlock bullpen tandem back in 2021 and really wish the Sox would go back to that. Couple those two with Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski and Bernardino and you have the potential for one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.

 

Shortening the game to 6 innings is better than signing an ace…

 

Are you saying the last three innings would be covered by rotating your seven-man pen? If so, the Sox would still need to find five new starting pitchers who can deliver quality starts...

 

... since this year, the team hasn't one single starter average as many as 6 IP per start.

[moonslav59]

I think we can count on more innings from Bello in 2024, and he has been pretty good with giving us 4 or more IP in every starts, after his first one.

 

23 GD

After game 1:

6.2 to 7: 8 times

6: 7 times

(over half were 6 or more)

 

4.2 to 5.2: 6 times

4.0 IP: 2 times

 

Now, we just need 4 more.

 

[Larry Cook]

I think we can count on more innings from Bello in 2024, and he has been pretty good with giving us 4 or more IP in every starts, after his first one.

 

23 GD

After game 1:

6.2 to 7: 8 times

6: 7 times

(over half were 6 or more)

 

4.2 to 5.2: 6 times

4.0 IP: 2 times

 

Now, we just need 4 more.

 

 

Why is pitching an afterthought to Hang’em Chaim

[moonslav59]

Re-visiting the Catcher-Pitcher dynamics on the Sox in 2023.

 

Bello

w Wong 3.27 ERA/.727 OPSA (321 PAs)

w McGuire 4.05/.764 (256)

 

Pivetta

w Wong 3.38 ERA/.639 OPSA (280 PAs)

w McGuire 6.36/ .881 (211)

 

Crawford

w Wong 4.89 ERA/.767 OPSA (301 PAs)

W McGuire 2.81 ERA/.481 (98)

 

Paxton

w Wong 4.58 ERA/.724 OPSA (316 PAs)

w McGuire 4.70 ERA/.846 (73)

 

Houck

w Wong 5.21 ERA/.734 OPSA (329 PAs)

w McGuire 4.91 ERA/.833 (48)

 

Sale

w Wong 3.31 ERA/ .641 OPSA (284 PAs)

w McGuire 11.25 ERA/ 1.061 (64) Major unbalanced samples

 

Wink

w Wong 3.56 ERA/.751 OPSA (181 PAs)

w McGuire 1.42 ERA/ ,619 (111)

 

Whitlock

w Wong 5.52 ERA/.921 OPSA (198 PAs)

w McGuire 5.40 ERA/.734 (70)

 

Kluber

w. Wong 6.00 ERA/.918 OPSA (51 PAs)

w McGuire 7.33 ERA/.982 (206) Major Unbalanced sample sizes

 

Martin

w Wong 1.36 ERA/.615 (129 PAs)

w McGuire 0.73 ERA/.350 (44)

 

Jansen

w Wong 3.86 ERA/ .743 (132 PAs)

w McGuire 2.08 ERA/.487 (47)

 

Some sample sizes are rather small and or lop-sided. Judge for yourself.

 

(I highlighted in red the better numbers and left some in black, if the sample sizes were more than 4:1 PAs ratios.)

[moonslav59]

Why is pitching an afterthought to Hang’em Chaim

 

I'm not sure anyone knows. I offered one possible explanation based on' the plan being 4-5 years all along, which in theory goes like this:

 

1. Build up the farm and foundation of young players first.

2, Start signing longer term contracts as you near the first year of the planned "window."

3. Wait until you are at the window to go large and long on pitchers, so you maximize their production, which usually comes in years 1-3 of large and long contracts.

 

Had we signed an ace 2-3 years ago, and the planned window opens in 2024, that pitcher would be in decline.

 

Note:

I am not saying this was or is the plan.

I am not saying this is a good plan.

I do think it makes some sense in this context, and perhaps only this context.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure anyone knows. I offered one possible explanation based on' the plan being 4-5 years all along, which in theory goes like this:

 

1. Build up the farm and foundation of young players first.

2, Start signing longer term contracts as you near the first year of the planned "window."

3. Wait until you are at the window to go large and long on pitchers, so you maximize their production, which usually comes in years 1-3 of large and long contracts.

 

Had we signed an ace 2-3 years ago, and the planned window opens in 2024, that pitcher would be in decline.

 

Note:

I am not saying this was or is the plan.

I am not saying this is a good plan.

I do think it makes some sense in this context, and perhaps only this context.

 

 

It's not going to look like much of a plan if Chaim gets fired. It'll be very reminiscent of Ben's "five year plan".

[Nick]

Would everyone here be bitching about Nathan Eovaldi being hurt after starting 19 games of at least 5 innings pitched?

 

Kluber goes 2-6 while Nathan was 9-3 before the 9/5 fiasco.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

It's not going to look like much of a plan if Chaim gets fired. It'll be very reminiscent of Ben's "five year plan".

 

Yes. I have spoke of the parallels, often.

 

We'll never know how Ben would have done with trades, but we did know some more about his big FA signings, and he was allowed to replace much of the salary dump contracts, almost right away.

 

To be honest, I'm not sure if Bloom is the guy for trading prospects and or signing large and long deals. Hell, I'm not even sure that's in the plans for this winter, or even next winter.

 

It wouldn't shock me, if we replace Bloom. It would not upset me, either. If we do, I hope we bring in someone with a balanced approach, who knows how to find good pitching.

 

[moonslav59]

Would everyone here be bitching about Nathan Eovaldi being hurt after starting 19 games of at least 5 innings pitched?

 

You should know the answer to this.

 

HELL YES, they would.

[notin]

Are you saying the last three innings would be covered by rotating your seven-man pen? If so, the Sox would still need to find five new starting pitchers who can deliver quality starts...

 

... since this year, the team hasn't one single starter average as many as 6 IP per start.

 

 

True, not one of the 14 pitchers to average 6 IP per start pitched for the Red Sox this year.

 

Also, do not confuse averages with minimums…