A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

TOR lost to BAL, so we have gotten some help, the last 2 days.

 

Needing to beat the Dodgers, while others face much easier teams is a big task, but it is what it is.

 

Let's hope we can cool Mookie down and whack their pitching like we did France.

[moonslav59]

Position OPS 2022>2023

 

.693> .701 C

.683> .824 1B

.724> .660 2B

.816> .654 SS

.856> .843 3B

.693> .818 LF

.671> .825 CF

.661> .782 RF

.764> .789 DH

 

ERA 2022>2023

4.53> 4.37 P

4.49> 4.62 SP

4.59> 4.02 RP

 

ERA-

111> 97 P

110>103 SP

112>89 RP

 

The only significant drops were at 2B and SS, as expected.

The slight decline at 3B is offset by the slight improvement at C.

ERA- shows our rotation and pen improved, significantly over 2022.

 

The Wins and Loses might not show as much improvement as one might expect, looking at these numbers, and we are on pace to win 8 more games than 2022, but I'm thinking these numbers show quite a bit of improvement.

 

The big decline, of course, has been on D.

Edited August 25, 2023 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Abreu has been hot over last month.

 

I hope we keep riding him.

 

He doesn't need a day off. It's a go time.

[Bellhorn04]

Abreu has been hot over last month.

 

I hope we keep riding him.

 

He doesn't need a day off. It's a go time.

 

Cora will figure it out.

 

I know that's just the answer you wanted to hear.

 

Duvall is red hot too.

 

Good problem to have and all that.

[Old Red]

What a difference 2 days have made. The Red Sox dropped the first 2 games to Houston, and had dropped 4+5 games back to the teams ahead of them in the wildcard, and now they are 2+3 games back to the two teams ahead of them for the wildcard after taking the last two from Houston. Big change in just two days. From gloom, and doom to hope, and promise again. Who knows what happens from here, because things have gone back, and fourth so many times this year.

[Old Red]

Cora will figure it out.

 

I know that's just the answer you wanted to hear.

 

Duvall is red hot too.

 

Good problem to have and all that.

Cora was rotating when Duran was still in the lineup, so I suspect he will still do the same. Big difference though is that Duvall has gotten hot, and Masa is not.

[Bellhorn04]

Question for discussion: does "lineup protection" exist?

 

Mookie is so freaking hot that it would be tempting to give him the Barry Bonds Treatment and walk him a lot. But it's a questionable tactic when you have Freeman right behind him with an OPS of .988 (Mookie's is now at 1.009).

[Bellhorn04]

What a difference 2 days have made. The Red Sox dropped the first 2 games to Houston, and had dropped 4+5 games back to the teams ahead of them in the wildcard, and now they are 2+3 games back to the two teams ahead of them for the wildcard after taking the last two from Houston. Big change in just two days. From gloom, and doom to hope, and promise again. Who knows what happens from here, because things have gone back, and fourth so many times this year.

 

Yeah, it's just the way this team has been.

 

2 or 3 games out of the playoffs on this date and you still have a realistic chance.

 

5 or 6 out and you're as good as toast.

[moonslav59]

Cora will figure it out.

 

I know that's just the answer you wanted to hear.

 

Duvall is red hot too.

 

Good problem to have and all that.

 

Dugo looks to be waking up the echoes, too.

[moonslav59]

What a difference 2 days have made. The Red Sox dropped the first 2 games to Houston, and had dropped 4+5 games back to the teams ahead of them in the wildcard, and now they are 2+3 games back to the two teams ahead of them for the wildcard after taking the last two from Houston. Big change in just two days. From gloom, and doom to hope, and promise again. Who knows what happens from here, because things have gone back, and fourth so many times this year.

 

This has been our patter, with being 2-6 games above .500 for much longer the -3 to +1 on .500.

 

This seems like the type of team that could pull off a comeback at any moment-- or severely disappoint us as well.

 

Kinda like that '21 team after losing to BAL.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen was pulled from Wednesday night’s game due to tightness in his right hamstring. Per MLB.com, the club plans to evaluate Jansen further upon returning to Boston today. Jansen told reporters that he “felt great” yesterday and was hoping to avoid a trip to the injured list. The 68-60 Red Sox are still in the hunt for the playoffs, with a 3.5 game deficit to make up for in the Wild Card standings. A healthy and effective Jansen will be key to the club’s playoff aspirations, as the four-time All Star has posted a 2.81 ERA while racking up 29 saves in 46 appearances this season. Should Jansen require a trip to the shelf, Chris Martin seems like the most likely candidate to take over for Jansen in the ninth inning.

[moonslav59]

Sox Numbers per 162 games played:

 

HR RBI

54 270 Abrue

38 117 Devers

34 107 Duvall

28 115 Turner

28 70 Casas

24 124 Urias

24 74 Chang

19 54 EValdez

18 68 Yoshida

14 69 Dugo

12 63 Duran

12 49 Wong

 

XBHs

162 Abreu

83 Duvall

75 Devers

68 Duran

65 Dugo

64 Turner

62 Story

60 Yoshida

52 Casas

49 Wong

48 Urias

 

SB

49 Story

38 Duran

24 DHam

19 EValdez

[notin]

I’m taking the under on 270 RBI for Abreu…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m taking the under on 270 RBI for Abreu…

 

What are yo-- with Pablo hitting in front of him for a whole season?

[mvp 78]

I’m taking the under on 270 RBI for Abreu…

 

54 HR's seems awfully light though. Maybe need to add another digit in front of the 5.

[mvp 78]

He’s probably a candlepin guy too.

 

@alexspeier

Mookie says he may go candlepin bowling while here.

[mvp 78]

@gfstarr1

The Red Sox announce they’ve claimed RHP Zack Weiss off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.

 

To make room on the 40-man roster, they transferred RHP Corey Kluber to the 60-Day Injured List.

 

Looks like that puts a fork in the tenure of Corey Kluber. Retirement?

[moonslav59]

@gfstarr1

The Red Sox announce they’ve claimed RHP Zack Weiss off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.

 

To make room on the 40-man roster, they transferred RHP Corey Kluber to the 60-Day Injured List.

 

Looks like that puts a fork in the tenure of Corey Kluber. Retirement?

 

Seems like they could have put Kluber on the 60, long ago, but for what? To keep Bleier around a bit longer?

[moonslav59]

Don't look now, but the Rangers have lost 8 straight and may be passed by SEA tonight- making our need to pass any two teams to make the playoffs more likely we pass them than SEA and maybe even HOU.

 

If SEA wins, tonight (as they are down 3-2 to KC) the standings would be...

 

72-56 SEA (tiebreaker to SEA)

72-56 TEX

72-58 HOU -1.0 (2 in loss column)

70-59 TOR -2.5 (-1.5 from HOU)

68-61 BOS -4.5 (-2.0 TOR and -3.5 from HOU)

 

[Maxbialystock]

KIKE AND THE DODGERS

 

I've giving this a title because I think it's instructive, but I'm reluctant to start a new thread.

 

Simply stated, when Kike went to the Dodgers there was universal acclaim on Talksox, including by yours truly. Good riddance for bad rubbish.

 

But four interesting things have happened since Kike switched teams--

 

1. In the 26 games which Kike has started with the Dodgers they have won 20 games and lost 6 games--easily their best stretch of this season. If it were possible to connect--and it isn't--those games to Kike's personal WAR (wins above replacement), it would be at least a +10.

 

2. Kike has played 2b and in the outfield (CF last night) in those 26 games, during which his OPS has been over .800. When he was with the Sox his OPS was .599.

 

3. Kike's last game with the Sox was July 23, after which they were 53-47. Today the Sox are are 68-61.

 

4. So, while the Dodgers have going completely ape with Kike, the Sox have gone 15-14 without him.

 

It is therefore unarguable that both the Sox and the Dodgers this season have been better with Kike than without him. The Sox, granted, only very slightly better. But the Dodgers have been a lot better and in fact so has Kike, especially his hitting.

 

Why is that?

 

Simple. The Dodgers are willing (and have been for several years) to pay for their talent. That's how they got Mookie and the Sox lost him. At the time, I was happy with that because I thought Mookie was overpriced. The Sox have gone in the opposite direction and reduced payroll--this year's it's 15th, the lowest ranking in the John Henry.

 

With the lower salaries has come lesser talent and even instability.

 

Here are the Sox regulars (based on games played) from two years ago when Kike joined the Sox: Devers (156 games) JDM (148), Dugo (146), Renfro (144), Bogaerts (144), Vazquez (138), Kike (134), Dalbec (133), Marwin Gonzalez (77), Plawecki (64), Arroyo (48), Cordero (48), and Schwarber (41 games). As you can see, all but 2, Devers and Dugo, are gone with the wind (although Dalbec is at Worcester).

 

I believe all this turnover and the lower payroll are very much the intention of both Chaim Bloom and John Henry--but probably not the desire of Alex Cora. His task, beyond any question, is to manage chaos caused not only by trades, etc but also by all those injuries this year.

 

I think Connor Wong is a smart catcher and a smart player, but last night's boneheaded running play was I think the result of his inexperience and the failure of the first base coach to tell him: "hey, Connor. I know there are 2 outs, but up ahead of you on 2b is slower than molasses Casas. Also, if the ball is hit to RF, Mookie Betts is now there and no way will the 3d base coach let Casas try for home because Mookie has one of the best arms in MLB. Plus, if Verdugo gets a hit, that loads the bases for Devers, who's having a good night. So don't try for 3d base unless you see the ball get by a Dodgers outfielder or you see the 3d base coach signal Casas to head for home."

Edited August 26, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Simple. The Dodgers are willing (and have been for several years) to pay for their talent. That's how they got Mookie and the Sox lost him.

 

Nope, it's not that simple at all. The Dodgers have parted with some high-priced talented themselves over the last few years. Two of them, Turner and Jansen, are playing for the 2023 Red Sox. Then there's Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and so forth.

 

The Dodgers do spend plenty of money, but they're trying to do it the smart way, and they've been succeeding very well at this pretty much since Friedman became their CBO.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Connor Wong is a smart catcher and a smart player, but last night's boneheaded running play was I think the result of his inexperience and the failure of the first base coach to tell him: "hey, Connor. I know there are 2 outs, but up ahead of you on 2b is slower than molasses Casas. Also, if the ball is hit to RF, Mookie Betts is now there and no way will the 3d base coach let Casas try for home because Mookie has one of the best arms in MLB. Plus, if Verdugo gets a hit, that loads the bases for Devers, who's having a good night. So don't try for 3d base unless you see the ball get by a Dodgers outfielder or you see the 3d base coach signal Casas to head for home."

 

Certainly agree that the first base coach should have said those things.

[Maxbialystock]

Nope, it's not that simple at all. The Dodgers have parted with some high-priced talented themselves over the last few years. Two of them, Turner and Jansen, are playing for the 2023 Red Sox. Then there's Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and so forth.

 

The Dodgers do spend plenty of money, but they're trying to do it the smart way, and they've been succeeding very well at this pretty much since Friedman became their CBO.

 

All good points. The Dodgers have been smarter, I agree, but I do think the higher salaries do help. Thus Mookie for Dugo.

 

Interesting you do not address the 4 points about Kike. You could at least throw them onto the "anomaly junkheap of history."

[Bellhorn04]

All good points. The Dodgers have been smarter, I agree, but I do think the higher salaries do help. Thus Mookie for Dugo.

 

Interesting you do not address the 4 points about Kike. You could at least throw them onto the "anomaly junkheap of history."

 

Kike is another example of a player the Dodgers let go, of course.

 

What doomed Kike's season with the Red Sox was a combination of bad luck and bad decision-making that led to him playing shortstop.

 

The Dodgers pounced on the chance to get him back for cheap and it has paid off for them and for Kike. Just one of those random things that happen in this often strange game. It might be even stranger how well Brasier has pitched for them.

 

On the flip side, without Turner and Jansen the 2023 Sox would likely be toast a long time ago.

[Maxbialystock]

Kike is another example of a player the Dodgers let go, of course.

 

What doomed Kike's season with the Red Sox was a combination of bad luck and bad decision-making that led to him playing shortstop.

 

The Dodgers pounced on the chance to get him back for cheap and it has paid off for them and for Kike. Just one of those random things that happen in this often strange game. It might be even stranger how well Brasier has pitched for them.

 

On the flip side, without Turner and Jansen the 2023 Sox would likely be toast a long time ago.

 

When the Sox picked up Kike, they paid good money for him. Same for Turner and Jansen. When the Dodgers took Kike back and then acquired Brasier, both were tremendous bargains because I think the Sox are paying half of Kike's salary with the Dodgers and all of Brasier's.

 

About Kike. When he was with the Sox, I checked on how they did when he played and when he didn't and the winning percentage was about the same. Also, his DWAR with the Sox was +0.3, but his overall WAR was -0.7 because of his weak hitting.

 

All that said, I still think letting Kike go was the right move because the Sox right now have a zillion outfielders, all of whom can hit, and two SS's, Story and Reyes, who both can hit and who both have positive DWAR's. Plus a SS (Marcelo Mayer) stashed at Portland and another (Ceddanne) at Worcester. Both of them could probably switch to the OF if needed.

 

My theory about Kike's sudden hitting resurgence is that he's comfortable with coming back to his old team and with playing 2b and the outfield, etc. It's also possible the Dodgers hitting coach helped him the same way the Dodgers pitching coach helped Brasier.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

KIKE AND THE DODGERS

 

I've giving this a title because I think it's instructive, but I'm reluctant to start a new thread.

 

Simply stated, when Kike went to the Dodgers there was universal acclaim on Talksox, including by yours truly. Good riddance for bad rubbish.

 

But four interesting things have happened since Kike switched teams--

 

1. In the 26 games which Kike has started with the Dodgers they have won 20 games and lost 6 games--easily their best stretch of this season. If it were possible to connect--and it isn't--those games to Kike's personal WAR (wins above replacement), it would be at least a +10.

 

2. Kike has played 2b and in the outfield (CF last night) in those 26 games, during which his OPS has been over .800. When he was with the Sox his OPS was .599.

 

3. Kike's last game with the Sox was July 23, after which they were 53-47. Today the Sox are are 68-61.

 

4. So, while the Dodgers have going completely ape with Kike, the Sox have gone 15-14 without him.

 

It is therefore unarguable that both the Sox and the Dodgers this season have been better with Kike than without him. The Sox, granted, only very slightly better. But the Dodgers have been a lot better and in fact so has Kike, especially his hitting.

 

Why is that?

 

Simple. The Dodgers are willing (and have been for several years) to pay for their talent. That's how they got Mookie and the Sox lost him. At the time, I was happy with that because I thought Mookie was overpriced. The Sox have gone in the opposite direction and reduced payroll--this year's it's 15th, the lowest ranking in the John Henry.

 

With the lower salaries has come lesser talent and even instability.

 

Here are the Sox regulars (based on games played) from two years ago when Kike joined the Sox: Devers (156 games) JDM (148), Dugo (146), Renfro (144), Bogaerts (144), Vazquez (138), Kike (134), Dalbec (133), Marwin Gonzalez (77), Plawecki (64), Arroyo (48), Cordero (48), and Schwarber (41 games). As you can see, all but 2, Devers and Dugo, are gone with the wind (although Dalbec is at Worcester).

 

I believe all this turnover and the lower payroll are very much the intention of both Chaim Bloom and John Henry--but probably not the desire of Alex Cora. His task, beyond any question, is to manage chaos caused not only by trades, etc but also by all those injuries this year.

 

I think Connor Wong is a smart catcher and a smart player, but last night's boneheaded running play was I think the result of his inexperience and the failure of the first base coach to tell him: "hey, Connor. I know there are 2 outs, but up ahead of you on 2b is slower than molasses Casas. Also, if the ball is hit to RF, Mookie Betts is now there and no way will the 3d base coach let Casas try for home because Mookie has one of the best arms in MLB. Plus, if Verdugo gets a hit, that loads the bases for Devers, who's having a good night. So don't try for 3d base unless you see the ball get by a Dodgers outfielder or you see the 3d base coach signal Casas to head for home."

 

 

Not sure why any GM would want to reduce payroll…

[moonslav59]

 

I think Connor Wong is a smart catcher and a smart player, but last night's boneheaded running play was I think the result of his inexperience and the failure of the first base coach to tell him: "hey, Connor. I know there are 2 outs, but up ahead of you on 2b is slower than molasses Casas. Also, if the ball is hit to RF, Mookie Betts is now there and no way will the 3d base coach let Casas try for home because Mookie has one of the best arms in MLB. Plus, if Verdugo gets a hit, that loads the bases for Devers, who's having a good night. So don't try for 3d base unless you see the ball get by a Dodgers outfielder or you see the 3d base coach signal Casas to head for home."

 

1. I'm pretty certain the coach told him there was 2 outs, and he shouldn't have to tell a grown man that, anyway.

2. A coach should not have to and should not actually say that whole script you laid out.

3. That was not Wong's first base-running blunder.

 

It's time to start holding players accountable.

 

Our players suck at certain things. Most outweigh what they suck at by being even better in other areas to create a net plus value. Some barely get their value to even or near replacement player levels (Not Wong: he is a clear net plus and can still improve.)

 

BTW, the reason we rejoiced when Kike was traded was because we knew, if he stayed, he'd play SS some more. We had no room for him in CF or 2B. The players who have been playing CF and 2B for us, since the trade have blown Kike's LAD numbers off the charts.

 

The spending excuse is no longer an issue, IMO. It was in 2020. It was in 2021, but to a lesser extent.

 

When we signed Kike, our opening day budget was $180M. The end of the year tax number was $207M. In 2022, the two numbers were $206 and $236M. We are resetting, this year, but these numbers are higher than 2021, too (181 & 217.) One big adjustment should be made that widens these gaps even more: We stopped paying the $16M for Price in 2023. We also shed some other large salaries that were not producing at previous levels. I'll leave it at that.

 

The Dodger are not doing great because they added Kike, and I doubt our record would be any different had we kept Kike, but the way he was playing out of position was hurting us. That was not his fault, but it was the reality of the situation.

 

[moonslav59]

Nope, it's not that simple at all. The Dodgers have parted with some high-priced talented themselves over the last few years. Two of them, Turner and Jansen, are playing for the 2023 Red Sox. Then there's Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and so forth.

 

The Dodgers do spend plenty of money, but they're trying to do it the smart way, and they've been succeeding very well at this pretty much since Friedman became their CBO.

 

Same with the Astros: Springer, Cole, Correa and Verlander.

 

The issue isn't us losing some top players, it's the losing afterwards.

 

It's the not replacing them, in kind, either from the farm or via spending the money coming off the books at an equal rate and or making wiser choices with that spending.

[moonslav59]

When the Sox picked up Kike, they paid good money for him. Same for Turner and Jansen. When the Dodgers took Kike back and then acquired Brasier, both were tremendous bargains because I think the Sox are paying half of Kike's salary with the Dodgers and all of Brasier's.

 

About Kike. When he was with the Sox, I checked on how they did when he played and when he didn't and the winning percentage was about the same. Also, his DWAR with the Sox was +0.3, but his overall WAR was -0.7 because of his weak hitting.

 

All that said, I still think letting Kike go was the right move because the Sox right now have a zillion outfielders, all of whom can hit, and two SS's, Story and Reyes, who both can hit and who both have positive DWAR's. Plus a SS (Marcelo Mayer) stashed at Portland and another (Ceddanne) at Worcester. Both of them could probably switch to the OF if needed.

 

My theory about Kike's sudden hitting resurgence is that he's comfortable with coming back to his old team and with playing 2b and the outfield, etc. It's also possible the Dodgers hitting coach helped him the same way the Dodgers pitching coach helped Brasier.

 

Kike has almost always been a second half hitter (.760 to .700), and his best career month is August.

 

Let's see where his final LAD numbers end up.

 

Let's also see where Duvall, Urais and Reyes AUG-SEP numbers end up, as they are the ones playing, for the Sox, instead of Kike. (Kike was not ever going to play SS again, once Urias was obtained or Story returned.)

[moonslav59]

Not sure why any GM would want to reduce payroll…

 

I doubt a single one voluntarily does it.