A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

It's a modest improvement made to look better by the junk that came before it.

 

Well, did you expect instant 3 Cy Young candidates right off the bat?

 

Modest improvement can be viewed as step in the right direction.

 

To be truthful, I'm not sold on the idea that modest improvement continues over the next few years, but I think it deserves consideration that we are now in the midsts of a chaning system that is better at acquiring better young pitchers and is better at developing them. (Note: Whitlock and Wink spent very little to no time on our farm. They were acquired vis trade or Rule 5.)

[moonslav59]

I have always defended Cora resting guys, but get nervous when you and moonslav (and others) emphatically disagree. Sunday before the ASG is a good point.

 

Nevertheless, one more time with the 2018 season, easily the best season (108 wins) and postseason (11-3) in Sox history. Here are the games played (with their WAR's in parentheses) by the 2018 Sox twelve regulars/semi-regulars--

 

JDM 150 (6.4)

Beni 148 (3.9)

JBJ 144 (2.1)

Mookie 136 (10.9)

Bogey 136 (3.8)

Nunez 127 (-1.1)

Moreland 124 (0.9)

Devers 121 (0.0)

Holt 109 (1.3)

Leon 89 (-0.5)

Swihart 82 (-0.3)

Vazquez (-0.8)

 

The above games played are obviously not all the result of Cora's machinations. Injuries obviously played a role. Nevertheless, the actual games played by the top twelve do make the case that perhaps less is more.

 

Vaz played a career high games in 2019 crushed the 2018 negative WAR with a +2.3.

Devers played more games in 2019 and greatly improved his WAR.

Bogey played 19 more games in 2019 and nearly doubled his WAR.

 

I could look at 2017 and probably find similar points to make.

 

Maybe rest helps, some, but my point is that this seems excessive. I'm fine with nobody getting 162, again, or even 158 or 159, but 135-145 is too much.

 

BTW, those low numbers from 2018 were not all from "rest games."

Edited August 28, 2023 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Agreed.

 

The weird thing is, our team BA is .266, but it's .281 with RISP. That seems to be not true, to me.

 

I also wonder if we lead the league in hits with RISP that do not produce actual runs.

 

You have no peer with the numbers. I think "lead the league in hits with RISP that do not produce actual runs" could be the result of lousy baserunning. Other teams routinely score from 1b on a double, but with the Sox it's a rarity. Same goes for scoring from 2d on a single--forget it if there aren't 2 outs. And, if it's Casas, forget it if there are 2 outs.

 

This reminds me of Al Schact's autobiography, in which he relates a mostly true story: the 1926 Brooklyn Dodgers actually had three men end up on 3d base. Bases were loaded when Babe Herman hit one off the wall. Runner on 3d scores, but the guy on 2b was the pitcher who believed the ball would be caught and stayed on 2b until he saw it carom of the wall. By then it was too late for him to get home, so he parked at 3d base and was soon joined (or almost joined) by the guy on 1b and the batter Babe Herman. I think Herman didn't actually touch 3d base, but both he and the guy from 1b were tagged out between 2d and 3d base.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

You have no peer with the numbers. I think "lead the league in hits with RISP that do not produce actual runs" could be the result of lousy baserunning. Other teams routinely score from 1b on a double, but with the Sox it's a rarity. Same goes for scoring from 2d on a single--forget it if there aren't 2 outs. And, if it's Casas, forget it if there are 2 outs.

 

This reminds me of Al Schact's autobiography, in which he relates a mostly true story: the 1926 Brooklyn Dodgers actually had three men end up on 3d base. Bases were loaded when Babe Herman hit one off the wall. Runner on 3d scores, but the guy on 2b was the pitcher who believed the ball would be caught and stayed on 2b until he saw it carom of the wall. By then it was too late for him to get home, so he parked at 3d base and was soon joined (or almost joined) by the guy on 1b and the batter Babe Herman. I think Herman didn't actually touch 3d base, but both he and the guy from 1b were tagged out between 2d and 3d base.

 

Someone could look up team singles with a man on 2nd and see where we place in runs scored. (Not me.)

[Maxbialystock]

Corey Kluber with his $10 million salary has been disappointing but Seattle’s $180.5 million payroll includes $21 million for 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and another $6.75 million for fellow lefthander Marco Gonzales.

 

Ray and Gonzales are out for the season after combining for fewer innings (3.1 and 50) than Kluber (55) this season.

 

Interesting. Kluber's WAR is -0.9, which means he cost the Sox 1 fewer wins than they would have had from the average MLB player/pitcher. That's actually a lot in terms of his only having played 55 innings, but does show he didn't do as much damage as most claim he did.

 

I've harped on the fact that this year in all games, pretty much regardless of the starter, the Sox need to score 5 runs to have a good chance of winning. This was the case with Kluber. The Sox won every game he pitched in and in which they scored 5 or more runs--and lost every game in which he pitched and the Sox scored fewer than 5 runs.

[Maxbialystock]

Someone could look up team singles with a man on 2nd and see where we place in runs scored. (Not me.)

 

You do understand I'm being a pissant.

[moonslav59]

Interesting. Kluber's WAR is -0.9, which means he cost the Sox 1 fewer wins than they would have had from the average MLB player/pitcher.

 

No, it's 1 fewer win than a replacement level pitcher with a 0.0 WAR.

[moonslav59]

You do understand I'm being a pissant.

 

Yes, I did, but I would like someone to look this up.

 

LOL

[Maxbialystock]

No, it's 1 fewer win than a replacement level pitcher with a 0.0 WAR.

 

OK. But the 5 run rule still applies.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, I did, but I would like someone to look this up.

 

LOL

 

FWIW, espn stats say there have been 817 MLB pitchers so far this year and that -0.9 puts Kluber in at 792d best. Pitchers ranked 429th thru 522d all have WAR's of 0.0.

 

So, out of 817 MLB pitchers, 428 have WAR's of 0.1 or better and the bottom 290 pitches have WAR's of -0.1 or worse.

[moonslav59]

FWIW, espn stats say there have been 817 MLB pitchers so far this year and that -0.9 puts Kluber in at 792d best. Pitchers ranked 429th thru 522d all have WAR's of 0.0.

 

So, out of 817 MLB pitchers, 428 have WAR's of 0.1 or better and the bottom 290 pitches have WAR's of -0.1 or worse.

 

Is that counting all pitchers with 0-5 IP?

 

All I know is WAR means wins above Replacement not Average.

[Bellhorn04]

Is that counting all pitchers with 0-5 IP?

 

All I know is WAR means wins above Replacement not Average.

 

Right. And the stat WAA - Wins Above Average - is also available on Baseball-Reference.

 

Kluber's 2023 WAA is -1.4.

[Bellhorn04]

One useful benchmark is that an average WAR for a full-time player is about 2.

[Jasonbay44]

Ceddanne Rafaela is being called up for tonight’s game

[moonslav59]

Ceddanne Rafaela is being called up for tonight’s game

 

Who was sent down or put on the IL?

[Jasonbay44]

Who was sent down or put on the IL?

 

Abreu was put on paternity leave

[dgalehouse]

How many games would a replacement win if a replacement could win games ?

[Bellhorn04]

How many games would a replacement win if a replacement could win games ?

 

You probably remember the NFL strike and the games that were played with replacement players.

[Maxbialystock]

Vaz played a career high games in 2019 crushed the 2018 negative WAR with a +2.3.

Devers played more games in 2019 and greatly improved his WAR.

Bogey played 19 more games in 2019 and nearly doubled his WAR.

 

I could look at 2017 and probably find similar points to make.

 

Maybe rest helps, some, but my point is that this seems excessive. I'm fine with nobody getting 162, again, or even 158 or 159, but 135-145 is too much.

 

BTW, those low numbers from 2018 were not all from "rest games."

 

Of course they weren't all from "rest games." In fact, I insist on that point. You say that the Cora's rest games are excessive, and sometimes I agree with you.

 

However, in 2018 injuries caused a ton of those missed games. See especially the AL MVP Mookie Betts who missed 26 freaking regular season games.

 

My point, which is borne out by winning 108 games in the regular season and 11 of 14 in the postseason, is that at the very minimum those missed games by Mookie, Beni, JBJ, Bogey, et al were excessive and did not prevent the Sox from scoring a ton of runs (876, most in MLB) or from having an almost decent defense (tied for 7th in fielding percentage vs. 30th, dead last, right now).

 

In 2018, beyond any question, fewer games by all 12 of their most used players resulted in better hitting/scoring, better defense, and more wins.

[moonslav59]

In 2018, beyond any question, fewer games by all 12 of their most used players resulted in better hitting/scoring, better defense, and more wins.

 

It is not beyond any question.

 

One could argue all the rest days caused injuries just as easily as your claim.

[Larry Cook]

Abreu was put on paternity leave

 

Rafeala to the rescue!!!!!!’

 

Is Rafeala a Skinny version of Sandoval or a watered down version of Betts

[moonslav59]

Rafeala to the rescue!!!!!!’

 

Is Rafeala a Skinny version of Sandoval or a watered down version of Betts

 

Maybe Ellis Burks.

[Larry Cook]

Maybe Ellis Burks.

 

Wow! High praise for Rafeala!

[Maxbialystock]

It is not beyond any question.

 

One could argue all the rest days caused injuries just as easily as your claim.

 

You miss my point by a mile. To me a missed game is a missed game, whether because of injury or a decision by Cora.

 

And the 2018 Sox regulars missed a ton of games, but the Sox were hugely successful--in games won (most in MLB), in runs scored (most in MLB), and in fielding percentage (tied for 7th, which is pretty good for the Sox).

[Old Red]

Abreu was put on paternity leave

 

Hamilton also back up for Reyes.

[moonslav59]

You miss my point by a mile. To me a missed game is a missed game, whether because of injury or a decision by Cora.

 

And the 2018 Sox regulars missed a ton of games, but the Sox were hugely successful--in games won (most in MLB), in runs scored (most in MLB), and in fielding percentage (tied for 7th, which is pretty good for the Sox).

 

There is no way to know fewer games was responsible for such a great season. Many of the players you listed have had better years when playing more games.

 

I got your point, but you can't say "beyond question" less games helped or hurt the final numbers of the players and the team. You just can't. It's impossible to know.

[Nick]

BOSTON — Ceddanne Rafaela, one of the top handful of prospects in the Red Sox’s player development system, was added to the team’s active roster Monday as the club made a flurry of moves.

 

Rafaela was promoted to fill the spot of outfielder Wilyer Abreu, who was placed on the paternity leave list Monday. Abreu, too, made his major league debut last week while the team was in Houston.

 

The Sox also added infielder David Hamilton while placing infielder Pablo Reyes on the 10-day IL with an elbow injury.

 

I really like these moves......no more holding back high level prospects. Roll them out and see what they can do. Deal all the cards for everyone to see.

[Maxbialystock]

There is no way to know fewer games was responsible for such a great season. Many of the players you listed have had better years when playing more games.

 

I got your point, but you can't say "beyond question" less games helped or hurt the final numbers of the players and the team. You just can't. It's impossible to know.

 

Agree. 2018 does not prove that the regulars playing less guarantees better play.

 

But it does make it harder to argue that, when players are rested (or injured), they automatically play worse.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no way to know fewer games was responsible for such a great season. Many of the players you listed have had better years when playing more games.

 

I got your point, but you can't say "beyond question" less games helped or hurt the final numbers of the players and the team. You just can't. It's impossible to know.

 

Scheduled rest days are part of the Age of Analytics.

 

I too would be interested in knowing what data they used in determining how many rest days a player should have to optimize their performance.

[moonslav59]

A strong argument could be made that Cora was resting the wrong players. It looks like almost our whole pitching staff is running out of gas, except those who have not pitched all that much, like Martin and Jansen.

 

Paxton

3.23 first 9 GS

5.44 last 9 GS

 

Bello

3.76 first 14 GS

4.47 last 8 starts

 

Pivetta

1.88 game 11-26

6.43 last 6 games

 

Winckowski

2.82 first 39 games

4.32 last 9 games

 

Crawford

3.51 first 29 games

3.70 last 18 games

 

Martin only has 43 IP and is getting better

 

Jansen only has 42 IP and is getting better