A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

Agreed 1,000,000%. I'm really into the PPA right now because it's just a more modern game. Johns and Waters are just at the top of their game right now. Why follow baseball at all at this point? Boring game!

 

Says the man with 60K posts. Riiiigggghhhhtttt.

[Old Red]

Says the man with 60K posts. Riiiigggghhhhtttt.

 

He’s probably a candlepin guy too.

[mvp 78]

Says the man with 60K posts. Riiiigggghhhhtttt.

 

I bought this account off the previous MVP 78.

[mvp 78]

He’s probably a candlepin guy too.

 

Candlepin doesn't exist outside of New England. I've gone duckpin bowling more recently than candlepin.

[Old Red]

Candlepin doesn't exist outside of New England. I've gone duckpin bowling more recently than candlepin.

 

Candlepin doesn’t exist that much up here anymore either.

[Maxbialystock]

The greatest Red Sox catch of all time some could say.

 

I agree I'm making a big deal out of it. It was just a foul popup and in fact, had it not been caught, Whitlock might well have gotten that batter out some other way.

 

But it was the 7th inning of a tie ball game against the Astros who dominated the Sox in games 1 and 2. And the Astros were threatening with men on 1st and 2d with just one out.

 

That foul pop was a key opportunity to get an out, but Wong, who is usually on top of things, didn't know where it went. So Whitlock made an extraordinary effort to catch that pop up, which is completely out of character for almost every pitcher in MLB. They all routinely stay away from popups as just not their cup of tea. Let the infield/catcher handle it.

 

I would add that this was a game that had to be won even though the Sox could still founder in their quest to pass the Astros, Jays, and/or Mariners for the 3d wild card slot.

 

This one play demonstrated--to me, anyway--that at least one player on the Sox really cares about winning and had the presence of mind to do exactly the right thing on the spur of the moment. That he is a pitcher is nothing less than extraordinary.

[moonslav59]

As this season progressed, we saw some 40 man roster changes, along the way. Some were due to players coming off the 60 day IL, and some were for attempts at improving the team depth.

 

There was quite a bit of a revolving door in the pen, which is not uncommon in MLB, but here is a look at the the players who are no longer on the 40, but werre there to start the season, and their replacements.

 

Has there been an improvement? (I'm not counting returning 60 day IL players.)

 

Gone> Replaced

All were also on the 26 opening day:

Arroyo> Reyes

Chang> Urias

Kike> LLovera

Tapia> Robertson

Brasier>Bernardino

Bleier> Jacquez

(Ort & Kelly to 60 day IL)> Garza, Barraclough

 

Players no longer on the 40 (came & went and not listed above):

 

Alfaro

Chang

CHamilton

Sherriff

Dermody

T Scott

Littell

Faria

Lamet

 

(I probably missed a few names.)

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I agree I'm making a big deal out of it. It was just a foul popup and in fact, had it not been caught, Whitlock might well have gotten that batter out some other way.

 

But it was the 7th inning of a tie ball game against the Astros who dominated the Sox in games 1 and 2. And the Astros were threatening with men on 1st and 2d with just one out.

 

That foul pop was a key opportunity to get an out, but Wong, who is usually on top of things, didn't know where it went. So Whitlock made an extraordinary effort to catch that pop up, which is completely out of character for almost every pitcher in MLB. They all routinely stay away from popups as just not their cup of tea. Let the infield/catcher handle it.

 

I would add that this was a game that had to be won even though the Sox could still founder in their quest to pass the Astros, Jays, and/or Mariners for the 3d wild card slot.

 

This one play demonstrated--to me, anyway--that at least one player on the Sox really cares about winning and had the presence of mind to do exactly the right thing on the spur of the moment. That he is a pitcher is nothing less than extraordinary.

 

Agree. I don't have a lotta love for pitchers, especially anyone wearing a Red Sox uniform and touching a baseball that isn't about to be actually pitched.

 

Growing up, however, I'll bet even you'd agree that the best players on the field were usually pitchers. All of us, coaches included, loved having our best fielder on the mound, right in the middle of the action. Most of the guys I knew and know would definitely go for that foul pop -- but most never made the majors or even the pros, of course.

[moonslav59]

35 games to go and the Sox rank...

 

1st in 2Bs

6th OPS (-.002 STL)

6th SLG

T7th OBP (-.002 TOR)

8th in runs (-1 BAL, -8 HOU)

18th HRs (-1 BAL, TOR, -2 CIN)

23rd BBs/ 22nd K's

 

7th K/BB (8th in lowest BB/9)

T9th SIERA (4.03)

14th xFIP-

18th ERs allowed

18th ERA (15th ERA-)

 

[Larry Cook]

35 games to go and the Sox rank...

 

1st in 2Bs

6th OPS (-.002 STL)

6th SLG

T7th OBP (-.002 TOR)

8th in runs (-1 BAL, -8 HOU)

18th HRs (-1 BAL, TOR, -2 CIN)

23rd BBs/ 22nd K's

 

7th K/BB (8th in lowest BB/9)

T9th SIERA (4.03)

14th xFIP-

18th ERs allowed

18th ERA (15th ERA-)

 

 

Pretty amazing considering our rotation was devastated

[moonslav59]

Pretty amazing considering our rotation was devastated

 

Even the replacement rotation carried the team for a while.

 

Our worst starters were 3 thought to be original SP'ers: Kluber, Whitlock & Houck.

[moonslav59]

Our starters have been struggling, but so has the Astros rotation.

 

5.49 Bello in previous 6 GS before today.

5.15 Paxton in previous 7 GS.

5.40 Houck in last 9 GS.

5.21 Pivetta in last 5 games (some not starts)

5.14 Sale in 3 starts since returning

 

Astros:

7.33 Javier last 10

7.24 Urquidy last 7

6.37 H Brown in 9

5.82 Valdez last 9

1.94 JP France in 7 before today.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS (Note some small or tiny sample sizes)

1.488 Abrei (12 AB)

.876 Duvall (223)

.864 Devers

.843 Turner

.828 Duran

.823 Casas

.806 Urias (41)

.806 Yoshida

.797 Reyes

.783 Dugo

.712 Wong

.693 Ref

.690 McGuire

 

[moonslav59]

Sox ERA Leaders (65+ IP)

3.06 Winckowski

3.56 Bello

3.66 Crawford

3.79 Paxton

4.28 Pivetta

4.68 Sale

5.08 Houck

 

Sox ERA Leaders (25-64 IP)

1.26 Martin

2.61 Bernardino

2.72 Schreiber

2.81 Jansen

3.72 Murphy

5.52 Whitlock

[Nick]

We may bring him back, especially if we trade Dugo or Duran.

 

We are not trading away Duran. He's under team control for 5 more years.

 

Verdugo should be traded to make way for Abreu. He has more power potential.

 

Left to right should be Duran, Rafaela, Abreu. Yoshida DH'ing.

[moonslav59]

We are not trading away Duran. He's under team control for 5 more years.

 

Verdugo should be traded to make way for Abreu. He has more power potential.

 

Left to right should be Duran, Rafaela, Abreu. Yoshida DH'ing.

 

I seriously doubt we trade Duran- or Casas- or any young player with talent, but we need pitching, and to get good young pitching, you have to trade something to get something.

 

It's not be giving up on anyone.

 

It's not me devaluing or undervaluing anyone.

 

To trade anyone for a top young pitcher, to me, shows just how much I do value them.

 

I'd be fine with Duran/Ref/Yoshida in LF, Rafaela/Duran in CF and Abreu/Rafaela in RF, but if Yoshida will be our FT DH, I could see us bring back Duvall, in case Rafaela and or Abreu go through some growing pains.

[moonslav59]

The Jays play the O's tonight, but as of now, here are the standings:

 

71-56 SEA

72-57 HOU

70-57 TOR -1.0

68-60 BOS -3.5

 

 

[moonslav59]

Next 3 series:

 

BOS: 3 LAD, 3 HOU, 3@KCR

TOR: 3 CLE, 3 WSH, 3@COL

HOU: 3@DET, 3@BOS, 3 NYY

SEA: 3 KCR, 3 OAK, 3@NYM

 

 

[Nick]

This Mookie Betts appearance is a painful reminder of the contrasting fortunes of the Dodgers and Red Sox

 

Headline in Boston Globes.

 

Contrasting Fortunes?

 

LA Dodger won the Division in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 (won the World Series in COVID Season), 2022 and second place finish in 2021 while winning 106 games.

 

MY ONLY POINT IS MOOKIE DID NOT CHANGE DODGERS FORTUNES. THEY'VE BEEN WINNING EVER SINCE 2013.

 

Mookie joined a winning organization.

 

Oh by the way, we have 4 World Series rings in this century, Dodgers have won just one in a 60 game abbreviated season. Good for them.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

We are not trading away Duran. He's under team control for 5 more years.

 

Verdugo should be traded to make way for Abreu. He has more power potential.

 

Left to right should be Duran, Rafaela, Abreu. Yoshida DH'ing.

 

 

Duran’s control also makes him a more attractive trade piece for other teams.

 

If Abreu can stick, the Sox do have a good problem. Of course they might keep everyone just like they kept Duran, Verdugo and Duvall this year. It’s actually not hard to envision a Duran-Abreu-Verdugo OF with Yoshida at DH and Rafaela at WOO waiting for an injury (or Abreu struggle).

[Nick]

I seriously doubt we trade Duran- or Casas- or any young player with talent, but we need pitching, and to get good young pitching, you have to trade something to get something.

 

It's not be giving up on anyone.

 

It's not me devaluing or undervaluing anyone.

 

To trade anyone for a top young pitcher, to me, shows just how much I do value them.

 

I'd be fine with Duran/Ref/Yoshida in LF, Rafaela/Duran in CF and Abreu/Rafaela in RF, but if Yoshida will be our FT DH, I could see us bring back Duvall, in case Rafaela and or Abreu go through some growing pains.

 

I agree with everything you said.

 

Bloom will need to decide on Verdugo this winter. It's his walk year coming up. Or he can do nothing. But I think he has a value for someone.

[Nick]

Duran’s control also makes him a more attractive trade piece for other teams.

 

If Abreu can stick, the Sox do have a good problem. Of course they might keep everyone just like they kept Duran, Verdugo and Duvall this year. It’s actually not hard to envision a Duran-Abreu-Verdugo OF with Yoshida at DH and Rafaela at WOO waiting for an injury (or Abreu struggle).

 

Yep...

[moonslav59]

I agree with everything you said.

 

Bloom will need to decide on Verdugo this winter. It's his walk year coming up. Or he can do nothing. But I think he has a value for someone.

 

Some of the issues Dugo has had, this year, might make it more likely he gets traded, but he is our best defensive OF'er once Duvall's control ends.

[Nick]

My latest core group (age) yrs of team control starting in 2024. Exchange any of them for a better talent.

 

Here's our 'window of opportunity'.

 

CC Wong (27) 5 yrs

1B Casas (23) 5 yrs

2B Reyes (29) 4 yrs

SS Story (30) 5 yrs

3B Devers (26) 10 yrs

LF Duran (27) 5 yrs

CF Rafaela (22) 6 yrs

RF Abreu (24) 6 yrs (it's not because of his first 3 games. Cora was very high on him during spring training)

DH Yoshida (30) 4 yrs

 

By all means, bring back Turner, Duvall and Verdugo or any other rentals.

 

I am extremely pleased with our young and/or 'controlled' talent.

 

We just need starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching. Get them while our position players are cheap.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

Some of the issues Dugo has had, this year, might make it more likely he gets traded, but he is our best defensive OF'er once Duvall's control ends.

 

And until Rafaela’s begins…

[moonslav59]

My latest core group (age) yrs of team control starting in 2024. Exchange any of them for a better talent.

 

Here's our 'window of opportunity'.

 

CC Wong (27) 5 yrs + McGuire (28) 2 yrs

1B Casas (23) 5 yrs

2B Reyes (29) 4 yrs + Urias (26) 2 yrs

SS Story (30) 5 yrs

3B Devers (26) 10 yrs

LF Duran (27) 5 yrs

CF Rafaela (22) 6 yrs

RF Abreu (24) 6 yrs (it's not because of his first 3 games. Cora was very high on him during spring training)

DH Yoshida (30) 4 yrs

 

By all means, bring back Turner, Duvall and Verdugo or any other rentals.

 

I am extremely pleased with our young and/or 'controlled' talent.

 

We just need starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching. Get them while our position players are cheap.

 

I added a couple above.

 

We may also see Rosier, EValdez or S Scott making an impact.

[notin]

My latest core group (age) yrs of team control starting in 2024. Exchange any of them for a better talent.

 

Here's our 'window of opportunity'.

 

CC Wong (27) 5 yrs

1B Casas (23) 5 yrs

2B Reyes (29) 4 yrs

SS Story (30) 5 yrs

3B Devers (26) 10 yrs

LF Duran (27) 5 yrs

CF Rafaela (22) 6 yrs

RF Abreu (24) 6 yrs (it's not because of his first 3 games. Cora was very high on him during spring training)

DH Yoshida (30) 4 yrs

 

By all means, bring back Turner, Duvall and Verdugo or any other rentals.

 

I am extremely pleased with our young and/or 'controlled' talent.

 

We just need starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching. Get them while our position players are cheap.

 

Reyes might not have 4 years left on him, especially as a starter. He’s the New Pedro Ciriaco…

[moonslav59]

And until Rafaela’s begins…

 

Yes, and Abreu is pretty good, too.

[moonslav59]

Reyes might not have 4 years left on him, especially as a starter. He’s the New Pedro Ciriaco…

 

It's hard to get a read on how good he really is or can be. He had a .667 OPS before coming here. However, that was just 323 PAs, spread over 5 years.

 

He did have almost 1300 PAs in AAA with a .787 OPS.

(.750 at AA in 565 PAs)

 

This might not be a fluke.

[moonslav59]

My latest core group (age) yrs of team control starting in 2024. Exchange any of them for a better talent.

 

Here's our 'window of opportunity'.

 

CC Wong (27) 5 yrs

1B Casas (23) 5 yrs

2B Reyes (29) 4 yrs

SS Story (30) 5 yrs

3B Devers (26) 10 yrs

LF Duran (27) 5 yrs

CF Rafaela (22) 6 yrs

RF Abreu (24) 6 yrs (it's not because of his first 3 games. Cora was very high on him during spring training)

DH Yoshida (30) 4 yrs

 

By all means, bring back Turner, Duvall and Verdugo or any other rentals.

 

I am extremely pleased with our young and/or 'controlled' talent.

 

We just need starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching. Get them while our position players are cheap.

 

C: Wong, McGuire (Scott) Teel, Jog Garcia

1B: Casas (Dalbec) Jordan

2B: Urias, Reyes (EValdez) Yorke

SS: Story, Urias/Reyes (DHam) Mayer, Romero, Cespedes

3B: Devers, Urias (Meidroth) Paulino, Bonaci

LF: Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida (Rosier) Zanetello

CF: Rafaela, Duran, Abreu (Sikes) Anthony

RF: Verdugo, Abreu ( BGonzo) Bleis, Castro

DH: Yoshida, Casas (Dalbec/EValdez) Hickey, Kavadas, Lugo