A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox 2023 budget will always be a mystery, i.e. why did they leave so much room under the cap?

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox 2023 budget will always be a mystery, i.e. why did they leave so much room under the cap?

 

It can't be they don't trust the accountant's numbers after bungling 2022's budget.

 

I'm pretty sure that even if we stayed under in 2022, we would not have gone over in 2023.

 

Could they have purposely gone over to give them a plausible narrative for not going over this year? (These guys are such scammers, it makes us actually consider ideas like this!)

 

My best guess is, they stopped spending when the thought they did just enough to give the fans hope for 2023- enough to keep buying season tickets, game tickets and NESN subscriptions on a level satisfactory to to the money crunchers and JH. No more- no less.

 

It's no guarantee we'd have been a better team, if Bloom spent $18M on a pitcher, instead of $10M on Kluber, or any hindsight budget what ifs, we can come up with, like No Kluber + Mondesi + Brasier f+$8M for ____. Many pitchers paid over $18M have been total failures, too.

 

Still, had we made that effort, I'd feel better knowing they tried their best within the parameter of staying under the tax line, which in theory would have been done to allow us to spend way more in 2024 and maybe 2025, too.

 

I have my doubts about that happening, either.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

It can't be they don't trust the accountant's numbers after bungling 2022's budget.

 

In 2022 they made a conscious decision to go over the threshold. (Welcome back JBJ!)

 

Most of the heat about that has been for not trading Bogaerts/Eovaldi/JDM at the deadline to get back under the threshold.

 

I don't think the accountants can be blamed, though.

[notin]

The Red Sox 2023 budget will always be a mystery, i.e. why did they leave so much room under the cap?

 

My theory is they left room to add at the deadline (when you know what your needs are). But when the deadline came, they felt the line odds of making the postseason (or winning it all?) made any further investment risky.

 

And I think part of Henry’s goal was not to have a top tier baseline payroll…

[Maxbialystock]

Not sure why any GM would want to reduce payroll…

 

True. But I assume that, when he was hired as the Sox CBO (Chief Baseball Officer), Chaim Bloom was told that was one of the conditions of accepting the job. Also, as I keep harping on, the lower payroll (now ranked 15th in MLB) is the first time this has happened in the John Henry era--and probably before then.

[Randy Red Sox]

this might be the post you have submitted that I agree with more than any others. Keep the payroll as low as possible while keeping the team somewhat competitive.

It can't be they don't trust the accountant's numbers after bungling 2022's budget.

 

I'm pretty sure that even if we stayed under in 2022, we would not have gone over in 2023.

 

Could they have purposely gone over to give them a plausible narrative for not going over this year? (These guys are such scammers, it makes us actually consider ideas like this!)

 

My best guess is, they stopped spending when the thought they did just enough to give the fans hope for 2023- enough to keep buying season tickets, game tickets and NESN subscriptions on a level satisfactory to to the money crunchers and JH. No more- no less.

 

It's no guarantee we'd have been a better team, if Bloom spent $18M on a pitcher, instead of $10M on Kluber, or any hindsight budget what ifs, we can come up with, like No Kluber + Mondesi + Brasier f+$8M for ____. Many pitchers paid over $18M have been total failures, too.

 

Still, had we made that effort, I'd feel better knowing they tried their best within the parameter of staying under the tax line, which in theory would have been done to allow us to spend way more in 2024 and maybe 2025, too.

 

I have my doubts about that happening, either.

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Dodgers got Friedman from Tampa and the Sox got Bloom. Who got the better man?

Nope, it's not that simple at all. The Dodgers have parted with some high-priced talented themselves over the last few years. Two of them, Turner and Jansen, are playing for the 2023 Red Sox. Then there's Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and so forth.

 

The Dodgers do spend plenty of money, but they're trying to do it the smart way, and they've been succeeding very well at this pretty much since Friedman became their CBO.

[iortiz]

Dodgers got Friedman from Tampa and the Sox got Bloom. Who got the better man?

 

LAD and is not even close.

 

I thought Bloom could be like Friedman but he is not even his shadow.

[Randy Red Sox]

I heard he used to get Friedman's coffee for him everyday

LAD and is not even close.

 

I thought Bloom could be like Friedman but he is not even his shadow.

[Nick]

I think you are all wet.....

 

Bloom and others consistently state that they are NEVER, NEVER told to stay below the luxury tax limit.

 

So do they lie to us ALL THE TIME?

 

Duran was not on their radar.

 

They HOPED Casas would do as well as he's doing.

 

They HOPED Wong would be their future catcher.

 

They HOPED Yoshida would carry his bat from Japan to Fenway.

 

They HOPED Verdugo would finally get out his funk.

 

They HOPED Devers would give us another stellar offensive year.

 

They HOPED Turner and Duvall would provide offense and leadership.

 

They HOPED Bello would become a fixture in the starting rotation.

 

They HOPED the bullpen would improve greatly over 2022.

 

Many things went well.......

 

I await for this winter....we'll know what Henry is all about after winning 4 titles.

 

It's GO TIME.

[Maxbialystock]

1. I'm pretty certain the coach told him there was 2 outs, and he shouldn't have to tell a grown man that, anyway.

2. A coach should not have to and should not actually say that whole script you laid out.

3. That was not Wong's first base-running blunder.

 

It's time to start holding players accountable.

 

Our players suck at certain things. Most outweigh what they suck at by being even better in other areas to create a net plus value. Some barely get their value to even or near replacement player levels (Not Wong: he is a clear net plus and can still improve.)

 

BTW, the reason we rejoiced when Kike was traded was because we knew, if he stayed, he'd play SS some more. We had no room for him in CF or 2B. The players who have been playing CF and 2B for us, since the trade have blown Kike's LAD numbers off the charts.

 

The spending excuse is no longer an issue, IMO. It was in 2020. It was in 2021, but to a lesser extent.

 

When we signed Kike, our opening day budget was $180M. The end of the year tax number was $207M. In 2022, the two numbers were $206 and $236M. We are resetting, this year, but these numbers are higher than 2021, too (181 & 217.) One big adjustment should be made that widens these gaps even more: We stopped paying the $16M for Price in 2023. We also shed some other large salaries that were not producing at previous levels. I'll leave it at that.

 

The Dodger are not doing great because they added Kike, and I doubt our record would be any different had we kept Kike, but the way he was playing out of position was hurting us. That was not his fault, but it was the reality of the situation.

 

 

You're completely wrong about Wong and the first base coach who, if he isn't there to tell Wong, "2 outs, so run on anything hit, but you can't be aggressive past 2b base because Casas is in front of you," should be fired summarily. It's his freaking job to remind players of what they hopefully already know.

[moonslav59]

Dodgers got Friedman from Tampa and the Sox got Bloom. Who got the better man?

 

,,,and Houston got James Click, who has since been let go.

[moonslav59]

You're completely wrong about Wong and the first base coach who, if he isn't there to tell Wong, "2 outs, so run on anything hit, but you can't be aggressive past 2b base because Casas is in front of you," should be fired summarily. It's his freaking job to remind players of what they hopefully already know.

 

How do you know what Wong was told?

 

This is not Wong's first baserunning blunder.

 

It's okay to blame the player, when it's on him. A player is expected to go into 2B and look at the runner in front of him and/or the 3B coach in time to be able to apply the brakes and get back to 2B safely.

 

This is zero percent on the 1B coach. Zero.

 

He can't go through every possible scenario with the runner. It's expected of the player to not EFF up.

[Maxbialystock]

How do you know what Wong was told?

 

This is not Wong's first baserunning blunder.

 

It's okay to blame the player, when it's on him. A player is expected to go into 2B and look at the runner in front of him and/or the 3B coach in time to be able to apply the brakes and get back to 2B safely.

 

This is zero percent on the 1B coach. Zero.

 

He can't go through every possible scenario with the runner. It's expected of the player to not EFF up.

 

I apologize for being strident, but emphatically believe that in that particular situation the first base coach must impress upon the pinch runner to 1) run on anything hit; 2) be cautious at 2b base because Casas was slow and in front of him. It's clear from the game action that Wong knew to run but showed absolutely no hesitation making an aggressive turn at 2b and heading for 3b.

 

So I think it is at least possible nothing was said about the second issue (know where Casas was) or the third (know where the ball went). Or the 4th issue: Devers was on deck, so just getting safely to 2B would load the bases with the Sox best hitter at bat.

 

I hardly need remind you that I've yet to see opposing players on the field who are unwilling to bs with each other between pitches. They all do it--a lot. That being the case, it should not have been difficult for the first base coach to make sure Wong understood the game situation.

 

I grant you it's possible that the first base coach--who had absolutely nothing freaking else to do--did in fact spell everything out for Wong, but I have my doubts.

 

Also this. Secrecy should not have been an issue. If Freeman overheard everything, it would not have helped the Dodgers one iota.

 

Finally this. We all know the players are organized/unionized. Are they ever! My guess is the union would never allow a player to be fined for doing what Wong did. I mention this because you say players must be held accountable when in fact they really can't be.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

I heard he used to get Friedman's coffee for him everyday

 

Oh good. More Coffee Boy jokes.

[redsoxrules]

The Red Sox 2023 budget will always be a mystery, i.e. why did they leave so much room under the cap?

 

I'm hoping it's a sign that they will make a big splash in the off season

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox 2023 budget will always be a mystery, i.e. why did they leave so much room under the cap?

 

So their heads can swell; remember the first time they reset and bragged about it on social media?

[moonslav59]

I apologize for being strident, but emphatically believe that in that particular situation the first base coach must impress upon the pinch runner to 1) run on anything hit; 2) be cautious at 2b base because Casas was slow and in front of him. It's clear from the game action that Wong knew to run but showed absolutely no hesitation making an aggressive turn at 2b and heading for 3b.

 

So I think it is at least possible nothing was said about the second issue (know where Casas was) or the third (know where the ball went). Or the 4th issue: Devers was on deck, so just getting safely to 2B would load the bases with the Sox best hitter at bat.

 

I hardly need remind you that I've yet to see opposing players on the field who are unwilling to bs with each other between pitches. They all do it--a lot. That being the case, it should not have been difficult for the first base coach to make sure Wong understood the game situation.

 

I grant you it's possible that the first base coach--who had absolutely nothing freaking else to do--did in fact spell everything out for Wong, but I have my doubts.

 

Also this. Secrecy should not have been an issue. If Freeman overheard everything, it would not have helped the Dodgers one iota.

 

Finally this. We all know the players are organized/unionized. Are they ever! My guess is the union would never allow a player to be fined for doing what Wong did. I mention this because you say players must be held accountable when in fact they really can't be.

 

I just don't go off on anyone without knowing for sure what was said or not. I'm preetty sure most 1B coaches say and do the same things in that situation.

 

What bothers me is how it seems like so many of us go out of our ways to blame anyone but the players.

 

Bloom added some nice players.

 

Cora has gotten more than what most expected out of the players he was given.

 

Yet, it is rarely the player's fault.

 

"Fire Cora!"

 

"Fire Bloom!"

 

Now, we are hearing "Replace JH!"

 

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping it's a sign that they will make a big splash in the off season

 

I'm done thinking this. I still think it will happen someday, but I'm not going to guess "this winter."

[Randy Red Sox]

it will happen with the next owner. remember Henry did this in Florida too. not his first rodeo.

I'm done thinking this. I still think it will happen someday, but I'm not going to guess "this winter."

[Maxbialystock]

I just don't go off on anyone without knowing for sure what was said or not. I'm preetty sure most 1B coaches say and do the same things in that situation.

 

What bothers me is how it seems like so many of us go out of our ways to blame anyone but the players.

 

Bloom added some nice players.

 

Cora has gotten more than what most expected out of the players he was given.

 

Yet, it is rarely the player's fault.

 

"Fire Cora!"

 

"Fire Bloom!"

 

Now, we are hearing "Replace JH!"

 

 

I'm very pro-Cora as you know.

 

But it turns out you're dead right I'm as wrong as I can be. They interviewed Wong and Cora after the game and both blamed his baserunning on Wong. The Sox first base coach was neither mentioned nor interviewed, so clearly he is not expected to keep baserunners (the ones who tarry at first base) informed about game situations. He's there for moral support, talking to the other team's first baseman, looking intelligent, alert, and coach-like, and stuff like that.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

it will happen with the next owner. remember Henry did this in Florida too. not his first rodeo.

 

The Sox have spent big, then cut back, then spent big again, several times under JH. I'm not sure why everyone thinks that trend has ended.

 

We've already seen an uptick in spending since 2020, and the Devers deal has not even kicked in, yet.

 

Devers, Story and Yoshida plus a few two year deals is showing an upward trend, to me.

 

I could be wrong, but I do think JH will spend big when he thinks the farm is set up to the point where he does not have to fill 6 slots with expensive long term FAs.

 

We can all guess when and if that ever happens.

[moonslav59]

I'm very pro-Cora as you know.

 

But it turns out you're dead right I'm as wrong as I can be. They interviewed Wong and Cora after the game and both blamed his baserunning on Wong. The Sox first base coach was neither mentioned nor interviewed, so clearly he is not expected to keep baserunners (the ones who tarry at first base) informed about game situations. The players are expected to know exactly what they should do without asinine conversations with the first base coach. He's there for moral support, talking to the other team's first baseman, looking intelligent, alert, and coach-like, and stuff like that.

 

I feel your frustration, and it sucked so badly, that we want to lash out and anyone and everyone.

 

I still really like Wong. He is still a clear net plus, and his speed will make him a plus baserunning catcher, despite some blunders, but the kid has to smarten up in key situations.

 

It's better to be overly safe in those situations than overly aggressive.

 

He knows that. No amount of telling him that will make him less likely to do it, again.

[Nick]

Wong is our catcher. Move to another area of this team.

[Nick]

Great pitching staff will get us title 5. Our core position players are pretty well set. We will always need a Turner/Duvall type rentals but they can be found.

 

Start with 2 aces.

 

Maybe Bello will take another step forward.

 

We can't count on sale. I think we will move away from him. Paxton is fading fast. Who here thought Kutter would be our top 3 starter?

 

We need to do the Texas hustle. Sign as many starters as possible and see who sticks on the wall.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

OPS Leaders, now:

 

.885 Duvall

.862 Devers

.848 Turner (JD is at .856)

.828 Duran (on IL)

.826 Casas

.801 Yoshida

.797 Verdugo

.714 Wong

 

Under 225 ABs

1.379 Abreu

.769 Reyes

.740 Urias

.728 McGuire

.705 Refsnyder

.626 Story

 

All above .705, even the bench, except for Story, who seems to be on the rise.

Balance.

No black holes

 

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking, more and more, one of the two teams we might pass is going to be Texas- not TOR, HOU or SEA.

[moonslav59]

One less day to make up ground.

 

32 games left for the Sox and 5 teams are within 4.5 games of each other for the last 2 WC slots.

 

SEA & TEX tied for the WC 2 & WC 3 slots, but one will win the division (or HOU)

-1.0 HOU WC3 as of now

-2.5 TOR (-1.5 from WC3)

-4.5 BOS (-3.5 from WC3 and -2.0 from TOR)

 

Schedule remaining:

 

BOS: 3HOU, 3@KCR, 3@TBR, 3BAL, 3NYY, 3@TOR, 3@TEX, 3CWS, 2TBR, 4@BAL

TOR: 3WSH, 3@COL, 3@OAK, 3KCR, 4TEX, 3BOS, 3@NYY, 3@TBR, 3NYY, 3TBR

HOU: 3@BOS, 3NYY, 3@TEX, 3SDP, 3OAK, 3@KCR, 3BAL, 3KCR, 3@SEA, 3@ARI

TEX: 3@NYM, 3MIN, 3HOU, 3OAK, 4@TOR, 3!CLE, 3BOS, 3SEA, 3@LAA, 4@SEA

SEA: 3OAK, 3@NYM, 3@CIN, 4@TBR, 3LAA, 3LAD, 3@OAK, 3@TEX, 3HOU, 3TEX

Edited August 27, 2023 by moonslav59

[Jasonbay44]

I'm thinking, more and more, one of the two teams we might pass is going to be Texas- not TOR, HOU or SEA.

 

Seattle literally will not lose right now.

[moonslav59]

Seattle literally will not lose right now.

 

Maybe they are peaking, too early, but it sure seems like you are right.

 

They do end the season with 3 @ TEX, 3 HOU and 3 TEX, so they could play spoiler, if they run away with the AL West.

 

TEX ends with 3 v BOS, 3 v SEA, 3 @LAA and 4 @SEA

 

HOU ends with 3 v BAL, 3 v KCR, 3 @SEA and 3 @ AZ

 

TOR ends with 6 v NYY and 6 V TBR, but the Yanks are now a pushover. The two series before their last 12 may be their test (4 TEX and 3 BOS)