A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

[/b]

Who are you talking about?

 

Verdugo did not start. (Cora started Refsnyder vs a LHP, but we could have sat Kike.)

 

Alfaro started, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Verdugo did not start. (Cora started Refsnyder vs a RHP, no less!)

 

Alfaro started, too.

 

No, Sears started for the A's and he's a lefty.

 

Jeez, you guys are really keeping me busy correcting all the misstatements today.

[moonslav59]

No, Sears started for the A's and he's a lefty.

 

Jeez, you guys are really keeping me busy correcting all the misstatements today.

 

Yes, I corrected that, but not quickly enough for ole eagle eye.

[Nick]

1. Alex Verdugo RF

 

2. Justin Turner DH

 

3. Adam Duvall LF

 

4. Triston Casas 1B

 

5. Trevor Story SS

 

6. Pablo Reyes 2B

 

7. Wilyer Abreu CF

 

8. Connor Wong C

 

9. Luis Urías 3B

 

Abreu starting versus a lefty opener no less. Not complaining at all. I want him in the lineup everyday. Rob Refsnyder is out after going 2-4 yesterday with a double. Yoshida is out again. Batting .250 in August, his worst month.

[dgalehouse]

One thing about the Sox, they seem to get a threat going just about every inning. Not a lot of easy, quick innings for the opposing pitcher. It's just a matter of getting the hits with runners in scoring position.

[moonslav59]

One thing about the Sox, they seem to get a threat going just about every inning. Not a lot of easy, quick innings for the opposing pitcher. It's just a matter of getting the hits with runners in scoring position.

 

Agreed.

 

The weird thing is, our team BA is .266, but it's .281 with RISP. That seems to be not true, to me.

 

I also wonder if we lead the league in hits with RISP that do not produce actual runs.

[Larry Cook]

One thing about the Sox, they seem to get a threat going just about every inning. Not a lot of easy, quick innings for the opposing pitcher. It's just a matter of getting the hits with runners in scoring position.

 

This year’s Red Sox team is easier to watch and more palatable than that disaster of a team from last year.

[moonslav59]

This year’s Red Sox team is easier to watch and more palatable than that disaster of a team from last year.

 

Yet, we lost so many fan faves like Bogey, JD and Nate.

 

It's amazing how even a mildly winning season can change a fan's outlook.

[Nick]

4 years later we are still talking about Betts.

 

Come to think of it I thought Sox should have pursued signing Adrian Beltre much more aggressively after his walk off year in Boston. We couldn't settle on a third baseman for a long time after his departure. Not until Mike Lowell came around.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Nick

[harmony]

Corey Kluber with his $10 million salary has been disappointing but Seattle’s $180.5 million payroll includes $21 million for 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and another $6.75 million for fellow lefthander Marco Gonzales.

 

Ray and Gonzales are out for the season after combining for fewer innings (3.1 and 50) than Kluber (55) this season.

[moonslav59]

4 years later we are still talking about Betts.

 

Come to think of it I thought Sox should have pursued signing Adrian Beltre much more aggressively after his walk off year in Boston. We couldn't settle on a third baseman for a long time after his departure. Not until Mike Lowell came around.

 

You are kidding, right?

[Nick]

By the numbers, WAR for pitchers.

 

T8th, 3.5 Bello

T37th, 2.6 Martin

T49th, 2.3 Kutter

T79th, 1.7 Paxton

T106th, 1.4 Bernardino

T106th, 1.4 Jansen

T106th 1.4 Winckowski

T132nd, 1.2 Pivetta

T191st, 0.8 Sale

 

Thank goodness for Bello, Kutter and Martin. Another wasted year for Whitlock. Biggest disappointment for me. Turning into a Matt Barnes.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

You are kidding, right?

 

I'm pretty sure Adrain Beltre signed with Boston to showcase his talent after an injury riddled season the previous year. It seemed like we didn't really go after him.

 

Yeah, I am kidding about the first part.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure Adrain Beltre signed with Boston to showcase his talent after an injury riddled season the previous year. It seemed like we didn't really go after him.

 

Yeah, I am kidding about the first part.

 

About Lowell coming after him. That was the second part.

[moonslav59]

By the numbers, WAR for pitchers.

 

T8th, 3.5 Bello

T37th, 2.6 Martin

T49th, 2.3 Kutter

T79th, 1.7 Paxton

T106th, 1.4 Bernardino

T106th, 1.4 Jansen

T106th 1.4 Winckowski

T132nd, 1.2 Pivetta

T191st, 0.8 Sale

 

Thank goodness for Bello, Kutter and Martin. Another wasted year for Whitlock. Biggest disappointment for me. Turning into a Matt Barnes.

 

Houck and Whitlock are tied, IMO.

 

Had they just been healthy and at 4.25, we'd not have seen all the scrubs

[moonslav59]

OPS Against Leaders

 

RP

.573 Martin

.646 Bernardino

.657 Jansen

.724 Scheiber

.750 Llovera

.755 Wink

 

RP/SP

.675 Crawford

.720 Pivetta

.724 Murphy (before today)

.739 Walter

.856 Whitlock

 

SP

.697 Houck

.721 Sale

.732 Paxton

.742 Bello

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

OPS Against Leaders

 

RP

.573 Martin

.646 Bernardino

.657 Jansen

.724 Scheiber

.750 Llovera

.755 Wink

 

RP/SP

.675 Crawford

.720 Pivetta

.724 Murphy (before today)

.739 Walter

.856 Whitlock

 

SP

.697 Houck

.721 Sale

.732 Paxton

.742 Bello

 

 

 

 

i'm a little surprised Bello's was so high. everything else looks like about what i would imagine.

[moonslav59]

i'm a little surprised Bello's was so high. everything else looks like about what i would imagine.

 

I'm surprised Houck leads all starters.

[mvp 78]

i'm a little surprised Bello's was so high. everything else looks like about what i would imagine.

 

Kinda why his FIP is higher than his ERA and his fWAR is lower than his bWAR. Luck?

[moonslav59]

Kinda why his FIP is higher than his ERA and his fWAR is lower than his bWAR. Luck?

 

I do see the value of FIP, but I do think some pitchers are able to continually defy that stat and keep getting guys out and having a better ERA. With the s***** D behind Bello, you'd think having a lower FIP would hurt him, but somehow he pulled it off.

 

Of course, he has not yet shown he can "continually" do it.

[notin]

I do see the value of FIP, but I do think some pitchers are able to continually defy that stat and keep getting guys out and having a better ERA. With the s***** D behind Bello, you'd think having a lower FIP would hurt him, but somehow he pulled it off.

 

Of course, he has not yet shown he can "continually" do it.

 

Bello had some home run issues, too…

[moonslav59]

Bello had some home run issues, too…

 

Yup, and that kills the FIP and ERA.

[Nick]

Bello had some home run issues, too…

 

Yep, but he looks to be our future ace unless we sign someone above him. He's mentally tough. He's not afraid to get in a tough spot and get out of it.

[moonslav59]

Yep, but he looks to be our future ace unless we sign someone above him. He's mentally tough. He's not afraid to get in a tough spot and get out of it.

 

He sure seemed to mature, quickly.

 

Maybe the Sox "pitching development" has improved, recently.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He sure seemed to mature, quickly.

 

Maybe the Sox "pitching development" has improved, recently.

 

One guy isn't a system.

 

Bello improved recently: in '21 he dominated A ball -- 5-0, ERA 2.27, WHIP 1.01; in '22 he dominated AA -- 4-2, 1.69, 0.80, and then AAA -- 6-2, 2.76, 1.19.

 

Tomorrow, the world...

[moonslav59]

One guy isn't a system.

 

Bello improved recently: in '21 he dominated A ball -- 5-0, ERA 2.27, WHIP 1.01; in '22 he dominated AA -- 4-2, 1.69, 0.80, and then AAA -- 6-2, 2.76, 1.19.

 

Tomorrow, the world...

 

It's not one guy. When was the last time we had a 3 year window with pitchers coming up like Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Wink?

 

These aren't great names, but look at the names before them: DHern, Shawaryn, Owens, Johnson, Ranaudo, TBall, Webster, de la Rosa and yes, Kopech and Beeks,

 

How is that not viewed as improvement, even if it's all blind luck.

[Maxbialystock]

I do see the value of FIP, but I do think some pitchers are able to continually defy that stat and keep getting guys out and having a better ERA. With the s***** D behind Bello, you'd think having a lower FIP would hurt him, but somehow he pulled it off.

 

Of course, he has not yet shown he can "continually" do it.

 

Bello leads all Sox pitchers--by a wide margin--in innings pitched and WAR, so I think whatever he is doing is more real than luck. Fielding Independent Pitching is a neat stat, but, like WAR, not necessarily definitive.

 

My thought is that Bello bears down more with RISP.

[Maxbialystock]

It's not one guy. When was the last time we had a 3 year window with pitchers coming up like Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Wink?

 

These aren't great names, but look at the names before them: DHern, Shawaryn, Owens, Johnson, Ranaudo, TBall, Webster, de la Rosa and yes, Kopech and Beeks,

 

How is that not viewed as improvement, even if it's all blind luck.

 

I don't think it's luck, so I agree with you. But I am also very suspicious of the Sox system for analyzing and coaching pitchers. Exhibit A is Brasier, who was an unmitigated disaster with the Sox and consequently DFA'd. Yes, DFA'd. The Dodgers grabbed him and he has been fantastic for them.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not one guy. When was the last time we had a 3 year window with pitchers coming up like Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Wink?

 

These aren't great names, but look at the names before them: DHern, Shawaryn, Owens, Johnson, Ranaudo, TBall, Webster, de la Rosa and yes, Kopech and Beeks,

 

How is that not viewed as improvement, even if it's all blind luck.

 

It's a modest improvement made to look better by the junk that came before it.

[Maxbialystock]

Be careful....you'll get Cora fans pissed off about 'scheduled' time off. They need to be fresh for April 2024.

 

PS. Giving a player Sunday off before the All Star Break did it for me. You treat them like babies, they will act like babies.

 

I have always defended Cora resting guys, but get nervous when you and moonslav (and others) emphatically disagree. Sunday before the ASG is a good point.

 

Nevertheless, one more time with the 2018 season, easily the best season (108 wins) and postseason (11-3) in Sox history. Here are the games played (with their WAR's in parentheses) by the 2018 Sox twelve regulars/semi-regulars--

 

JDM 150 (6.4)

Beni 148 (3.9)

JBJ 144 (2.1)

Mookie 136 (10.9)

Bogey 136 (3.8)

Nunez 127 (-1.1)

Moreland 124 (0.9)

Devers 121 (0.0)

Holt 109 (1.3)

Leon 89 (-0.5)

Swihart 82 (-0.3)

Vazquez (-0.8)

 

The above games played are obviously not all the result of Cora's machinations. Injuries obviously played a role. Nevertheless, the actual games played by the top twelve do make the case that perhaps less is more.